# 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election

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vte :
The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the 2016 special election, Democratic governor Kate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years of John Kitzhaber's term.
The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler, her opponent in the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State election; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Kate Brown, incumbent governor
* Ed Jones
* Candace Neville

### Endorsements
#### U.S. senators

* Jeff Merkley, U.S. senator (D-OR)

#### Organizations

* Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund
* Human Rights Campaign
* Oregon AFL–CIO
* Oregon League of Conservation Voters
* Planned Parenthood PAC of Oregon

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 324,541 | 81.9 |
| | Democratic | Ed Jones | 33,464 | 8.4 |
| | Democratic | Candace Neville | 29,110 | 7.4 |
| | Democratic | Write-ins | 8,912 | 2.3 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 396,027 | 100.0 |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Keenan Bohach
* Knute Buehler, orthopedic surgeon, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012
* Sam Carpenter, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2016
* Jonathan Edwards III
* Brett Hyland
* Jeff Smith, small business owner
* David Stauffer
* Jack Tracy
* Greg Wooldridge, former Blue Angels commanding officer

#### Withdrew

* Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)

#### Declined

* Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Mayor of Happy Valley and nominee for the state house in 2016
* Cedric Ross Hayden, state representative
* Mike McLane, House Minority Leader
* Bud Pierce, physician and nominee for governor in 2016
* Bill Post, state representative
* Dennis Richardson, Oregon Secretary of State, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014

### Endorsements
#### U.S. senators

* Gordon H. Smith, former U.S. senator (R-OR)

#### State legislators

* Greg Barreto, state representative
* Cliff Bentz, state senator
* Daniel Bonham, state representative
* Sal Esquivel, state representative
* Lynn Findley, state representative
* Bill Hansell, state senator
* Dallas Heard, state representative
* Mike McLane, state representative
* Ron Noble, state representative
* Andy Olson, state representative
* E. Werner Reschke, state representative
* Gene Whisnant, state representative

#### Individuals

* Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon
* Antoinette Hatfield, former first lady of Oregon
* Phil Knight, businessman, co-founder of Nike

#### Organizations

* National Federation of Independent Business
* Oregon Cattlemen's Association
* Oregon Farm Bureau

#### Newspapers

* Blue Mountain Eagle
* The Bulletin
* Corvallis Gazette-Times
* The Daily Astorian
* East Oregonian
* The Oregonian
* Portland Tribune
* The Register-Guard
* Willamette Week

#### State legislators

* Bill Post, state representative

#### Organizations

* Oregon Right to Life

### Debates

| Host network | Date | Link(s) | Participants | Participants | Participants |
| Host network | Date | Link(s) | Knute Buehler | Sam Carpenter | Greg Wooldridge |
| KXL-FM | May 11, 2018 | | Invited | Invited | Invited |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Knute Buehler | Sam Carpenter | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | Greg Wooldridge | Other | Undecided |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | May 3–6, 2018 | 438 | ± 4.7% | 33% | 25% | – | 8% | – | 33% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | April 19–22, 2018 | 1,013 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 24% | – | 12% | 6% | 20% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 628 | – | 23% | 23% | – | 4% | – | 50% |
| iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 168 | ± 3.9% | 28% | – | 8% | 31% | 6% | 26% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Knute Buehler | 144,103 | 45.9 |
| | Republican | Sam Carpenter | 90,572 | 28.8 |
| | Republican | Greg C. Wooldridge | 63,049 | 20.1 |
| | Republican | Bruce Cuff | 4,857 | 1.5 |
| | Republican | Jeff Smith | 4,691 | 1.5 |
| | Republican | David Stauffer | 2,096 | 0.7 |
| | Republican | Write-ins | 1,701 | 0.5 |
| | Republican | Jonathan Edwards III | 861 | 0.3 |
| | Republican | Keenan Bohach | 787 | 0.3 |
| | Republican | Brett Hyland | 755 | 0.2 |
| | Republican | Jack W. Tacy | 512 | 0.2 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 313,984 | 100 |

## Independent Party primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Skye Allen
* Dan Pistoresi
* Patrick Starnes

#### Results

Independent primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Independent Party | Write-ins | 13,497 | 56.8 |
| | Independent Party | Patrick Starnes | 6,030 | 25.4 |
| | Independent Party | Skye J. Allen | 2,405 | 10.6 |
| | Independent Party | Dan Pistoresi | 1,846 | 7.8 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 23,778 | 100.0 |

## General election
### Debates

* Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
* Third party debate, featuring Nick Chen (L), Patrick Starnes (I), and Chris Henry (P), hosted by former Green Party candidate Alex DiBlasi, October 6, 2018
* Complete video of debate, October 9, 2018

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Tilt D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |

#### Notes

* ↑ Bruce Cuff and Jeff Smith with 3%
* ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Kate Brown (D) | Knute Buehler (R) | Other/Undecided | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics | October 4–30, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | 44.0% | 39.7% | 16.3% | Brown +4.3% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kate Brown (D) | Knute Buehler (R) | Patrick Starnes (IPO) | Other | Undecided |
| Hoffman Research Group | October 29–30, 2018 | 694 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 42% | 4% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College | October 26–28, 2018 | 747 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 42% | – | 7% | 4% |
| DHM Research | October 4–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 35% | 4% | 3% | 17% |
| Riley Research Associates | September 24 – October 7, 2018 | 356 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 45% | 4% | 3% | – |
| Clout Research (R) | September 20–23, 2018 | 679 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 41% | – | – | – |
| Hoffman Research Group | September 12–13, 2018 | 680 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 2% | 12% |
| Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC) | September 6–11, 2018 | 2,831 | ± 2.0% | 41% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Clout Research (R) | July 30–31, 2018 | 559 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
| Gravis Marketing | July 16–17, 2018 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | – | 10% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 41% | 46% | – | – | 14% |
| DHM Research | January 25–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 29% | – | – | 25% |
| Zogby Analytics | November 10–12, 2017 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 36% | – | – | 25% |
| iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 40% | – | 11% | 8% |
with Sam Carpenter
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kate Brown (D) | Sam Carpenter (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
| Zogby Analytics | November 10–12, 2017 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 36% | – | 26% |
with Greg Wooldridge
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kate Brown (D) | Greg Wooldridge (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) | March 19–25, 2018 | 2,067 | ± 2.2% | 42% | 47% | – | 11% |
| iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 42% | 39% | 11% | 7% |
with Lori Chavez-DeRemer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kate Brown (D) | Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) | Other | Undecided |
| iCitizen | September 13–28, 2017 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 40% | 34% | 17% | 8% |

### Results

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2018 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 934,498 | 50.05% | −0.57% |
| | Republican | Knute Buehler | 814,988 | 43.65% | +0.20% |
| | Independent Party | Patrick Starnes | 53,392 | 2.86% | +0.42% |
| | Libertarian | Nick Chen | 28,927 | 1.55% | −0.77% |
| | Constitution | Aaron Auer | 21,145 | 1.13% | +0.13% |
| | Progressive | Chris Henry | 11,013 | 0.59% | N/A |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 3,034 | 0.16% | -0.01% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,866,997 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### By congressional district

Brown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, with Oregon's 4th congressional district held by veteran congressman Peter DeFazio and Oregon's 5th congressional district held by former veterinarian Kurt Schrader.
| District | Kate Brown | Knute Buehler | Elected Representative |
| 1st | 53.77% | 40.51% | Suzanne Bonamici |
| 2nd | 35.38% | 57.19% | Greg Walden |
| 3rd | 69.17% | 26.45% | Earl Blumenauer |
| 4th | 44.84% | 47.15% | Peter DeFazio |
| 5th | 46.02% | 47.97% | Kurt Schrader |

#### By county

| County | Kate Brown Democrat | Votes | Knute Buehler Republican | Votes | Patrick Starnes Independent | Votes | Nick Chen Libertarian | Votes | Aaron Auer Constitution | Votes | Chris Henry Progressive | Votes | Write-in | Votes | Total |
| Baker | 19.0% | 1,572 | 72.9% | 6,023 | 4.2% | 347 | 1.6% | 132 | 1.5% | 126 | 0.6% | 49 | 0.2% | 15 | 8,264 |
| Benton | 60.1% | 26,592 | 33.9% | 14,990 | 2.8% | 1,225 | 1.6% | 721 | 0.8% | 357 | 0.7% | 293 | 0.1% | 53 | 44,231 |
| Clackamas | 45.5% | 91,088 | 49.2% | 98,468 | 2.4% | 4,726 | 1.4% | 2,827 | 0.9% | 1,853 | 0.5% | 941 | 0.2% | 363 | 200,266 |
| Clatsop | 48.0% | 8,909 | 44.7% | 8,294 | 3.3% | 616 | 1.6% | 305 | 1.4% | 259 | 0.8% | 140 | 0.2% | 35 | 18,558 |
| Columbia | 38.7% | 9,519 | 52.6% | 12,953 | 4.0% | 975 | 1.9% | 480 | 2.0% | 481 | 0.7% | 167 | 0.2% | 42 | 24,617 |
| Coos | 33.5% | 9,622 | 57.5% | 16,520 | 4.4% | 1,262 | 1.8% | 505 | 1.8% | 510 | 0.9% | 256 | 0.2% | 52 | 28,727 |
| Crook | 19.8% | 2,285 | 73.8% | 8,516 | 3.6% | 418 | 1.0% | 110 | 1.2% | 140 | 0.4% | 42 | 0.2% | 25 | 11,536 |
| Curry | 35.9% | 4,141 | 56.1% | 6,474 | 3.8% | 443 | 1.6% | 188 | 1.7% | 199 | 0.7% | 75 | 0.1% | 13 | 11,533 |
| Deschutes | 42.3% | 40,676 | 52.0% | 49,983 | 2.9% | 2,764 | 1.4% | 1,353 | 0.8% | 766 | 0.5% | 460 | 0.1% | 97 | 96,099 |
| Douglas | 24.0% | 11,824 | 65.8% | 32,413 | 5.0% | 2,481 | 1.5% | 738 | 2.7% | 1,326 | 0.7% | 368 | 0.2% | 88 | 49,238 |
| Gilliam | 22.0% | 218 | 69.6% | 691 | 4.6% | 46 | 1.9% | 19 | 1.4% | 14 | 0.5% | 5 | 0.0% | 0 | 993 |
| Grant | 16.8% | 649 | 75.9% | 2,923 | 3.9% | 151 | 1.2% | 48 | 1.5% | 56 | 0.5% | 19 | 0.2% | 7 | 3,853 |
| Harney | 16.5% | 584 | 76.7% | 2,722 | 3.6% | 126 | 0.8% | 29 | 1.8% | 63 | 0.6% | 20 | 0.1% | 3 | 3,547 |
| Hood River | 59.9% | 6,485 | 35.0% | 3,789 | 2.5% | 271 | 1.3% | 136 | 0.7% | 81 | 0.5% | 55 | 0.1% | 11 | 10,828 |
| Jackson | 41.4% | 42,207 | 50.7% | 51,623 | 4.1% | 4,196 | 1.7% | 1,720 | 1.3% | 1,313 | 0.7% | 716 | 0.1% | 132 | 101,907 |
| Jefferson | 29.8% | 2,635 | 62.3% | 5,518 | 4.4% | 388 | 1.3% | 111 | 1.6% | 145 | 0.5% | 45 | 0.1% | 10 | 8,852 |
| Josephine | 30.2% | 12,214 | 60.5% | 24,499 | 4.3% | 1,735 | 1.9% | 767 | 2.2% | 881 | 0.8% | 308 | 0.2% | 66 | 40,470 |
| Klamath | 22.3% | 6,301 | 67.7% | 19,134 | 4.9% | 1,371 | 2.3% | 643 | 2.0% | 564 | 0.7% | 198 | 0.2% | 45 | 28,256 |
| Lake | 13.4% | 476 | 78.0% | 2,774 | 4.4% | 155 | 1.5% | 52 | 2.3% | 81 | 0.4% | 14 | 0.1% | 5 | 3,557 |
| Lane | 54.7% | 96,841 | 38.2% | 67,737 | 3.2% | 5,683 | 1.8% | 3,106 | 1.2% | 2,173 | 0.8% | 1,335 | 0.2% | 297 | 177,172 |
| Lincoln | 52.1% | 12,610 | 40.8% | 9,884 | 3.4% | 825 | 1.6% | 391 | 1.2% | 302 | 0.7% | 164 | 0.2% | 43 | 24,219 |
| Linn | 30.1% | 16,461 | 60.5% | 33,051 | 4.2% | 2,293 | 1.9% | 1,061 | 2.2% | 1,204 | 0.8% | 421 | 0.3% | 171 | 54,662 |
| Malheur | 24.1% | 2,159 | 66.9% | 6,000 | 4.1% | 364 | 1.7% | 156 | 2.5% | 227 | 0.6% | 52 | 0.1% | 12 | 8,970 |
| Marion | 43.5% | 55,238 | 49.9% | 63,323 | 2.8% | 3,511 | 1.7% | 2,100 | 1.4% | 1,831 | 0.5% | 650 | 0.3% | 325 | 126,978 |
| Morrow | 22.5% | 844 | 67.5% | 2,534 | 4.3% | 163 | 1.8% | 68 | 3.0% | 111 | 0.8% | 29 | 0.1% | 5 | 3,754 |
| Multnomah | 73.9% | 279,384 | 22.1% | 83,507 | 1.7% | 6,309 | 1.2% | 4,447 | 0.5% | 1,793 | 0.6% | 2,174 | 0.1% | 484 | 378,098 |
| Polk | 41.6% | 15,529 | 51.8% | 19,341 | 2.9% | 1,076 | 1.6% | 589 | 1.3% | 491 | 0.6% | 206 | 0.2% | 83 | 37,315 |
| Sherman | 19.3% | 190 | 74.7% | 736 | 3.5% | 34 | 0.7% | 7 | 1.5% | 15 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.1% | 1 | 985 |
| Tillamook | 42.7% | 5,616 | 50.3% | 6,606 | 3.5% | 464 | 1.2% | 158 | 1.5% | 202 | 0.6% | 77 | 0.1% | 19 | 13,142 |
| Umatilla | 29.4% | 7,085 | 63.0% | 15,178 | 3.7% | 885 | 1.7% | 419 | 1.6% | 393 | 0.5% | 117 | 0.1% | 31 | 24,108 |
| Union | 24.5% | 2,877 | 67.9% | 7,983 | 3.8% | 441 | 1.4% | 162 | 1.8% | 209 | 0.5% | 60 | 0.2% | 24 | 11,756 |
| Wallowa | 27.0% | 1,088 | 66.2% | 2,668 | 3.6% | 145 | 1.2% | 47 | 1.5% | 61 | 0.5% | 19 | 0.1% | 4 | 4,032 |
| Wasco | 40.5% | 4,604 | 51.4% | 5,841 | 3.8% | 427 | 1.8% | 203 | 1.6% | 177 | 0.7% | 85 | 0.2% | 20 | 11,357 |
| Washington | 55.5% | 137,886 | 39.2% | 97,286 | 2.2% | 5,535 | 1.7% | 4,229 | 0.8% | 2,010 | 0.5% | 1,161 | 0.1% | 372 | 248,479 |
| Wheeler | 19.3% | 158 | 72.6% | 594 | 4.6% | 38 | 1.8% | 15 | 1.2% | 10 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 0 | 818 |
| Yamhill | 39.1% | 17,931 | 53.3% | 24,412 | 3.3% | 1,503 | 1.9% | 885 | 1.6% | 721 | 0.6% | 287 | 0.2% | 81 | 45,820 |