# 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election

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The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Hawaii and lieutenant governor of Hawaii.
After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality.
Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum. This was Hawaii's only gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee, as well as the first since the 1990 election in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president. This election was the only time since 1998 that an incumbent Democratic governor of Hawaii was re-elected.

## Democratic primary
### Governor
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Ernest Caravalho, Democratic Party of Hawaii chair, House District 29
* Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014
* David Ige, incumbent governor
* Wendell Kaehuaea, security guard and perennial candidate
* Van Tanabe

##### Withdrew

* Clayton Hee, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014

#### Debates

| Dates | Location | Ige | Hanabusa | Link |
| July 6, 2018 | Honolulu, Hawaii | Participant | Participant | Full debate – YouTube |

#### Endorsements
##### Individuals

* Ben Cayetano, former governor of Hawai'i
* Tulsi Gabbard, congresswoman for HI-2
* Shan Tsutsui, former lieutenant governor of Hawai'i

##### Organizations

* Hawaii Building and Construction Trades Council
* Hawaii Fire Fighters Association
* Hawaii Government Employees Association
* Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters
* Hawaii State AFL-CIO
* International Longshore and Warehouse Union
* International Union of Operating Engineers
* International Union of Painters and Associated Trades
* Laborers' International Union of North America
* Seafarers International Union
* State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers
* University of Hawaii Professional Assembly

##### Individuals

* Harry Kim, mayor of Hawai'i County

##### Organizations

* Hawaii Association of Public Accountants
* Hawaii State Teachers Association
* Ironworkers Union
* Plasterers & Cement Masons Union
* Unite Here Local 5
* United Public Workers

#### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Ige | Colleen Hanabusa | Clayton Hee | Undecided |
| Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | – | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% |
| QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) | June 21 – July 6, 2018 | 518 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 57% | – | 11% |
| QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) | April 21 – May 7, 2018 | 888 | ± 3.4% | 23% | 52% | 6% | 19% |
| Merriman River Group | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 31% | 37% | 11% | 16% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 27% | 47% | 11% | 15% |

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 124,572 | 51.4 |
| | Democratic | Colleen Hanabusa | 107,631 | 44.4 |
| | Democratic | Ernest Caravalho | 5,662 | 2.3 |
| | Democratic | Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a | 2,298 | 0.9 |
| | Democratic | Richard Kim | 1,576 | 0.6 |
| | Democratic | Van Tanabe | 775 | 0.3 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 242,514 | 100.0 |

### Lieutenant governor
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Bernard Carvalho, mayor of Kauai County
* Will Espero, State Senate vice president and candidate for HI-01 in 2014
* Josh Green, state senator
* Kim Coco Iwamoto, former state board of education member
* Jill Tokuda, state senator

#### Withdrew

* Alan Arakawa, mayor of Maui County (running for Maui County Council)

#### Endorsements
##### Organizations

* UNITE Here Local 5

##### Individuals

* Daniel Foley, attorney in Baehr v. Miike and retired judge of the Hawaii Intermediate Court of Appeals

##### Organizations

* University of Hawaii Professional Assembly

#### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bernard Carvalho | Will Espero | Josh Green | Kim Coco Iwamoto | Jill Tokuda | Undecided |
| Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 13% | 5% | 31% | 10% | 17% | 26% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 6% | 34% | 10% | 14% | 22% |
| Merriman River Group | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 19% | 8% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 32% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 9% | 19% | 5% | 12% | 41% |

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Josh Green | 74,845 | 31.4 |
| | Democratic | Jill Tokuda | 68,124 | 28.6 |
| | Democratic | Bernard Carvalho | 45,825 | 19.2 |
| | Democratic | Kim Coco Iwamoto | 34,243 | 14.3 |
| | Democratic | Will Espero | 15,463 | 6.5 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 238,500 | 100.0 |

## Republican primary
### Governor
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator
* Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel
* Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives

##### Withdrew

* Bob McDermott, state representative and nominee for HI-02 in 2002

#### Endorsements
##### Newspapers

* Maui Time

#### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Carroll | Raymond L'Heureux | Andria Tupola | Undecided |
| Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 22% | 4% | 39% | 22% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 143 | ± 8.4% | 28% | 8% | 41% | 23% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 134 | ± 8.6% | 40% | – | 28% | 32% |

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Andria Tupola | 17,297 | 55.5 |
| | Republican | John Carroll | 10,974 | 35.2 |
| | Republican | Ray L'Heureux | 2,885 | 9.3 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 31,156 | 100.0 |

### Lieutenant governor
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Marissa Kerns
* Steve Lipscomb
* Jeremy Low

#### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marissa Kerns | Jeremy Low | Undecided |
| Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 26% | 20% | 54% |

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Marissa Dipasupil Kerns | 9,758 | 35.4 |
| | Republican | Steve Lipscomb | 9,543 | 34.7 |
| | Republican | Jeremy Low | 8,232 | 29.9 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 27,533 | 100.0 |

## Green primary
### Governor
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Jim Brewer

#### Results

Green primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Green | Jim Brewer | 454 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 454 | 100.0 |

### Lieutenant governor
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Renee Ing

#### Results

Green primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Green | Renee Ing | 444 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 444 | 100.0 |

## Nonpartisan primary
### Governor
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Selina Blackwell
* Link El
* Terrence Teruya

##### Results

Nonpartisan primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Nonpartisan | Terrence Teruya | 543 | 47.7 |
| | Nonpartisan | Selina Blackwell | 497 | 43.7 |
| | Nonpartisan | Link El | 98 | 8.6 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,138 | 100.0 |

### Lieutenant governor
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Ernest Magaoay
* Paul Robotti

##### Results

Nonpartisan primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Nonpartisan | Paul Robotti | 536 | 50.6 |
| | Nonpartisan | Ernest Magaoay | 523 | 49.4 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,059 | 100.0 |

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe D | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |

#### Notes

* ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

### Debates

| Dates | Location | Ige | Tupola | Link |
| October 29, 2018 | Honolulu, Hawaii | Participant | Participant | Full debate – C-SPAN |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Ige (D) | Andria Tupola (R) | Undecided |
| Merriman River Group | October 8–12, 2018 | 961 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 24% | 25% |
with David Ige and John Carroll
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Ige (D) | John Carroll (R) | Undecided |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 27% | 21% |
with David Ige and Raymond L'Heureux
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Ige (D) | Raymond L'Heureux (R) | Undecided |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 67% | 20% | 13% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and John Carroll
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Colleen Hanabusa (D) | John Carroll (R) | Undecided |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and Andria Tupola
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Colleen Hanabusa (D) | Andria Tupola (R) | Undecided |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 28% | 16% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and Raymond L'Heureux
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Colleen Hanabusa (D) | Raymond L'Heureux (R) | Undecided |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 58% | 26% | 16% |

### Results

Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 244,934 | 62.67% | 13.22 |
| | Republican | Andria Tupola | 131,719 | 33.70% | 3.38 |
| | Green | Jim Brewer | 10,123 | 2.59% | N/A |
| | Nonpartisan | Terrence Teruya | 4,067 | 1.04% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 390,843 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### By congressional district

Ige won both congressional districts.
| District | Ige | Tupola | Representative |
| 1st | 64% | 33% | Colleen Hanabusa (117th Congress) |
| 1st | 64% | 33% | Ed Case (118th Congress) |
| 2nd | 61% | 35% | Tulsi Gabbard |