# 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

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Elections in Maryland :
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General elections
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Ballot measures
Question P :
Government :
vte :
The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Biden easily carried Maryland with 65.4% of the vote to Trump's 32.2% (a margin of 33.2%, significantly larger than Hillary Clinton's 26.4% in 2016). Prior to the election, all news organizations projecting the election considered Maryland a state that Biden would carry comfortably. Maryland has long been a Democratic-leaning state, and no Republican presidential candidate has won it since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden carried the Black-majority, suburban counties of Prince George's County and Charles County with over 80% and 60% of the vote respectively, Baltimore City with almost 90% of the vote, and the white-majority, suburban counties of Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore with over 60% each. While Republicans typically win more counties by running up margins in more rural western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore-Washington area casts over three-fourths of the state's vote, making it difficult for a Republican to carry Maryland. While Trump won 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden won the six largest, all of which are part of the Baltimore-Washington area–Montgomery, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore counties and Baltimore City–by over a million votes collectively, more than enough to carry the state.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's principal strength in Maryland came from winning 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%. Biden won all other major demographic groups, including 52% of Whites (the first time since 1964 that a Democratic candidate won the white vote in Maryland), 69% of Latinos, 79% of Jews, 54% of Protestants, and 51% of Catholics. Frederick, Kent, and Talbot counties voted for Trump in 2016, but supported Biden in 2020.

## Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.

### Republican primary

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.

### Democratic primary

2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary :
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
| Joe Biden | 879,753 | 83.72 | 96 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 81,939 | 7.80 | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 27,134 | 2.58 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 7,180 | 0.68 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 6,773 | 0.64 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 6,670 | 0.63 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 5,685 | 0.54 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 4,226 | 0.40 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 2,662 | 0.25 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 2,291 | 0.22 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 897 | 0.09 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 760 | 0.07 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 671 | 0.06 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 406 | 0.04 | |
| Uncommitted | 23,726 | 2.26 | |
| Total | 1,050,773 | 100% | 96 |

### Green primary

2020 Maryland Green Party primary :
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 4 |
| Candidate | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % |
| Howie Hawkins | 34 | 53.1% | 34 | 61.8% | 34 | 64.15% | 34 | 68% |
| Dario Hunter | 16 | 25% | 16 | 29.1% | 16 | 30.18% | 16 | 32% |
| Kent Mesplay | 2 | 3.1% | 3 | 5.5% | 3 | 5.66% | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| Write-ins | 2 | 3.1% | 2 | 3.6% | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry | 1 | 1.6% | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| Empty ballot | 9 | 14.1% | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 64 | 100.0% |

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico | Safe D | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen | Safe D | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist | Safe D | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News | Likely D | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin | Safe D | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News | Safe D | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR | Likely D | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News | Safe D | August 6, 2020 |
| 538 | Safe D | September 9, 2020 |

### Polling
#### Aggregate polls

| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided | Margin |
| 270 to Win | October 7–26, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 60.0% | 31.7% | 8.3% | Biden +28.3 |
| Real Clear Politics | September 4 – October 24, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 60.3% | 31.0% | 8.7% | Biden +29.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 63.1% | 31.6% | 5.3% | Biden +31.4 |
| Average | Average | Average | 61.1% | 31.4% | 7.4% | Biden +29.7 |

#### Polls

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Howie Hawkins Green | Other | Undecided |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,216 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 31% | 66% | – | – | – | – |
| Swayable | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 503 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 31% | 67% | 2% | 0% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,820 (LV) | – | 32% | 66% | – | – | – | – |
| Gonzalez Maryland Poll | Oct 19–24, 2020 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 33% | 58% | – | – | 3% | 6% |
| Goucher College | Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020 | 776 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 30% | 61% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Change Research/Our Voice Maryland | Sep 29 – Oct 1, 2020 | 650 (V) | ± 4.55% | 32% | 61% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,364 (LV) | – | 31% | 67% | – | – | – | 2% |
| OpinionWorks | Sep 4–11, 2020 | 753 (LV) | – | 30% | 62% | – | – | 3% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,813 (LV) | – | 31% | 66% | – | – | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,911 (LV) | – | 32% | 66% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,175 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Gonzalez Maryland Poll | May 19–23, 2020 | 810 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 31% | 59% | – | – | – | 6% |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 60% | – | – | 1% | 4% |
Former candidates :
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump (R) | Michael Bloomberg (D) | Undecided |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 59% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump (R) | Pete Buttigieg (D) | Undecided |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 33% | 58% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump (R) | Tulsi Gabbard (D) | Undecided |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 52% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump (R) | Amy Klobuchar (D) | Undecided |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 59% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump (R) | Bernie Sanders (D) | Undecided |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 34% | 61% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump (R) | Tom Steyer (D) | Undecided |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 36% | 54% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump (R) | Elizabeth Warren (D) | Undecided |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 59% | – |
Hypothetical polling :
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump (R) | Generic Democrat | Other | Undecided |
| Goucher College | Sep 13–18, 2019 | 548 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 65% | 3% | 4% |
| DFM Research | Jan 19–22, 2019 | 500 (A) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 53% | – | 16% |

### Results

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 1,985,023 | 65.36% | +5.03% |
| | Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence | 976,414 | 32.15% | −1.76% |
| | Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 33,488 | 1.10% | −1.76% |
| | Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker | 15,799 | 0.52% | −0.77% |
| | Bread and Roses | Jerome Segal John de Graaf | 5,884 | 0.19% | N/A |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 20,422 | 0.67% | -0.94% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 3,037,030 | 100% | |

#### By county

| County | Joe Biden Democratic | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total votes cast |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total votes cast |
| Allegany | 9,158 | 29.89% | 20,886 | 68.16% | 597 | 1.95% | -11,728 | -38.27% | 30,641 |
| Anne Arundel | 172,823 | 55.82% | 127,821 | 41.28% | 8,973 | 2.90% | 45,002 | 14.54% | 309,617 |
| Baltimore | 258,409 | 62.28% | 146,202 | 35.24% | 10,321 | 2.49% | 112,207 | 27.04% | 414,932 |
| Baltimore City | 207,260 | 87.28% | 25,374 | 10.69% | 4,827 | 2.03% | 181,886 | 76.59% | 237,461 |
| Calvert | 22,587 | 45.99% | 25,346 | 51.61% | 1,179 | 2.40% | -2,759 | -5.62% | 49,112 |
| Caroline | 5,095 | 32.26% | 10,283 | 65.11% | 416 | 2.63% | -5,188 | -32.85% | 15,794 |
| Carroll | 36,456 | 36.34% | 60,218 | 60.02% | 3,653 | 3.64% | -23,762 | -23.68% | 100,327 |
| Cecil | 16,809 | 35.42% | 29,439 | 62.03% | 1,214 | 2.56% | -12,630 | -26.61% | 47,462 |
| Charles | 62,171 | 69.47% | 25,579 | 28.58% | 1,748 | 1.95% | 36,592 | 40.89% | 89,498 |
| Dorchester | 6,857 | 42.92% | 8,764 | 54.85% | 356 | 2.23% | -1,907 | -11.93% | 15,977 |
| Frederick | 77,675 | 53.34% | 63,682 | 43.73% | 4,258 | 2.92% | 13,993 | 9.61% | 145,615 |
| Garrett | 3,281 | 21.02% | 12,002 | 76.88% | 328 | 2.10% | -8,721 | -55.86% | 15,611 |
| Harford | 63,095 | 42.58% | 80,930 | 54.61% | 4,161 | 2.81% | -17,835 | -12.03% | 148,186 |
| Howard | 129,433 | 70.70% | 48,390 | 26.43% | 5,239 | 2.86% | 81,043 | 44.27% | 183,062 |
| Kent | 5,329 | 49.37% | 5,195 | 48.13% | 270 | 2.50% | 134 | 1.24% | 10,794 |
| Montgomery | 419,569 | 78.61% | 101,222 | 18.96% | 12,952 | 2.43% | 318,347 | 59.65% | 533,743 |
| Prince George's | 379,208 | 89.26% | 37,090 | 8.73% | 8,557 | 2.01% | 342,118 | 80.53% | 424,855 |
| Queen Anne's | 10,709 | 35.35% | 18,741 | 61.87% | 840 | 2.77% | -8,032 | -26.52% | 30,290 |
| St. Mary's | 23,138 | 41.57% | 30,826 | 55.38% | 1,701 | 3.06% | -7,688 | -13.81% | 55,665 |
| Somerset | 4,241 | 41.80% | 5,739 | 56.56% | 167 | 1.65% | -1,498 | -14.76% | 10,147 |
| Talbot | 11,062 | 49.04% | 10,946 | 48.53% | 547 | 2.43% | 116 | 0.51% | 22,555 |
| Washington | 26,044 | 38.42% | 40,224 | 59.35% | 1,511 | 2.23% | -14,180 | -20.93% | 67,779 |
| Wicomico | 22,054 | 47.72% | 22,944 | 49.65% | 1,218 | 2.64% | -890 | -1.93% | 46,216 |
| Worcester | 12,560 | 39.63% | 18,571 | 58.60% | 560 | 1.77% | -6,011 | -18.97% | 31,691 |
| Totals | 1,985,023 | 65.36% | 976,414 | 32.15% | 75,593 | 2.49% | 1,008,609 | 33.21% | 3,037,030 |
* Democratic — +10-12.5%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +10-12.5%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Democratic  Hold  Gain from Republican Republican  Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
* Frederick (largest municipality: Frederick)
* Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
* Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)

#### By congressional district

Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts.
| District | Biden | Trump | Representative |
| 1st | 39% | 58% | Andy Harris |
| 2nd | 65% | 32% | Dutch Ruppersberger |
| 3rd | 68% | 29% | John Sarbanes |
| 4th | 79% | 19% | Anthony Brown |
| 5th | 68% | 29% | Steny Hoyer |
| 6th | 60% | 37% | David Trone |
| 7th | 78% | 20% | Kweisi Mfume |
| 8th | 69% | 29% | Jamie Raskin |

## Analysis

Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland for any candidate since Horatio Seymour's 67.2% in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run; even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860–when the Republican Party was not yet established in the slaveholding Old Line State–did the Republican nominee perform worse than Trump did in 2020. In this election, Maryland voted 28.75% to the left of the nation at-large.
With the exception of Somerset County, every county in the state swung to Biden from Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016; many swung Democratic by double digits. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than one million raw votes: the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.