# 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed. Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Martin Heinrich, incumbent U.S. senator

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Martin Heinrich (D) | $9,067,125 | $5,341,198 | $4,380,901 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Martin Heinrich (incumbent) | 122,961 | 100.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 122,961 | 100.0% |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Nella Domenici, former CFO of Bridgewater Associates and daughter of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici

#### Disqualified

* Manuel Gonzales III, former Democratic Bernalillo County Sheriff (2014–2022) and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2021

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Nella Domenici (R) | $1,525,766 | $464,576 | $1,061,190 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Nella Domenici | 79,809 | 100.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 79,809 | 100.0% |

## Independents and third-party candidates
### Candidates
#### Filed paperwork

* Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman
* Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman
* Jerry Rose (Independent)
* Tom Wakely (Green)

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Likely D | October 30, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics | Lean D | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Likely D | October 30, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |

### Endorsements
#### Organizations

* 314 Action
* End Citizens United
* Feminist Majority PAC
* Humane Society Legislative Fund
* Jewish Democratic Council of America
* Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
* J Street PAC
* League of Conservation Voters
* Natural Resources Defense Council
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
* Population Connection Action Fund
Labor unions
* AFSCME Council 18

#### Organizations

* National Republican Senatorial Committee

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Martin Heinrich (D) | $12,502,263 | $10,330,618 | $2,826,618 |
| Nella Domenici (R) | $4,777,524 | $4,377,754 | $399,769 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Martin Heinrich (D) | Nella Domenici (R) | Undecided | Margin |
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 38.9% | 12.7% | Heinrich +9.5 |
| RCP | June 13 – October 26, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 39.3% | 12.0% | Heinrich +9.4 |
| 270ToWin | October 22 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.5% | 44.5% | 5.0% | Heinrich +6.0% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.8% | 43.1% | 6.1% | Heinrich +7.7% |
| Average | Average | Average | 49.6% | 41.5% | 8.9% | Heinrich +8.1% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Nella Domenici (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Victory Insights (R) | November 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | – | 1% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | October 10–18, 2024 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 7% |
| SurveyUSA | September 12–18, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 47% | 34% | – | 19% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | September 6–13, 2024 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 38% | 4% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 37% | 6% | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 25–28, 2024 | 488 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 33% | 4% | 19% |
| Emerson College | August 20–22, 2024 | 965 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 37% | 4% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 12–15, 2024 | 453 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 36% | 7% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 34% | 4% | 21% |
| 1892 Polling (R) | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 40% | – | 13% |
| Red Oak Strategies (R) | May 7–19, 2024 | 1,800 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
| 1892 Polling (R) | March 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 36% | – | – |

### Results

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Martin Heinrich (incumbent) | 497,333 | 55.06% | +0.97 |
| | Republican | Nella Domenici | 405,978 | 44.94% | +14.41 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 903,311 | 100.00% | |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | | 65.33% | +10.33 |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
* Colfax (largest municipality: Raton)
* Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg)
* Luna (largest municipality: Deming)
* Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)

#### By congressional district

Heinrich won all 3 congressional districts.
| District | Heinrich | Domenici | Representative |
| 1st | 57% | 43% | Melanie Stansbury |
| 2nd | 52% | 48% | Gabe Vasquez |
| 3rd | 55% | 45% | Teresa Leger Fernandez |