# 2022 Colorado gubernatorial election

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vte :
The 2022 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Democratic governor Jared Polis won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican University of Colorado regent Heidi Ganahl in a landslide. Ganahl conceded on election night. The primary election was held on June 28.
Polis's 2022 victory marked the first time in American history that an openly gay politician was re-elected as the governor of a state. Polis had the best performance for a re-elected Colorado governor since Bill Owens in 2002, the best for a Democrat since Roy Romer in 1990, and the highest raw vote total ever in a Colorado gubernatorial race.

## Democratic assembly
### Candidates
#### Nominated at assembly

* Jared Polis, incumbent governor
** Running mate: Dianne Primavera, incumbent lieutenant governor

#### Eliminated at assembly

* None

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Jared Polis (incumbent) | 523,489 | 100.00% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 523,489 | 100.00% |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Heidi Ganahl, member of the Regents of the University of Colorado
** Running mate: Danny Moore, businessman

#### Eliminated in primary

* Greg Lopez, former mayor of Parker and former director of the Small Business Administration for Colorado; candidate for governor in 2018 and for U.S. Senate in 2016

#### Eliminated at convention

* Laurie Clark
* Darryl Gibbs, truck driver and U.S. Air Force veteran
* Jon Gray-Ginsberg
* Danielle Neuschwanger, realtor
* Jim Rundberg, U.S. Army veteran, independent candidate for governor in 2014, and Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2016

#### Declined

* Guy Benson, political pundit, Fox News contributor, and political editor for Townhall
* Ken Buck, U.S. representative from Colorado's 4th congressional district, former chair of the Colorado Republican Party, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010
* Bill Owens, former governor of Colorado (endorsed Ganahl)

### Endorsements

Statewide officials
* Bill Owens, former governor of Colorado (1999–2007)
Newspapers
* Colorado Springs Gazette (Republican primary only)

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Heidi Ganahl | 341,157 | 53.87% |
| | Republican | Greg Lopez | 292,187 | 46.13% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 633,344 | 100.0% |

## American Constitution convention
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Danielle Neuschwanger, realtor (previously ran for Republican nomination)
** Running mate: Darryl Gibbs, truck driver and U.S. Air Force veteran (previously ran for Republican nomination)

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid D | July 29, 2022 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | October 12, 2022 |
| Politico | Likely D | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP | Likely D | October 20, 2022 |
| Fox News | Likely D | May 12, 2022 |
| 538 | Solid D | July 31, 2022 |
| Elections Daily | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |

### Endorsements

Labor unions
* National Education Association
* United Mine Workers
Organizations
* Cobalt Advocates
* Colorado AFL–CIO
* Colorado Black Women for Political Action
* Colorado Organization for Latina Opportunity and Reproductive Rights
* Democratic Governors Association
* Everytown for Gun Safety
* Human Rights Campaign
* Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund
* One Colorado
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
* Save the Children USA
* Stand for Children
Newspapers
* The Denver Post
* Sentinel Colorado
Federal officials
* Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present) and Chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present)
Statewide officials
* Bill Owens, former governor of Colorado (1999–2007)
* Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)
Organizations
* Colorado Fraternal Order of Police
* Republican Governors Association
* Stand for Health Freedom
Newspapers
* Fort Morgan Times
* The Gazette
U.S. Executive Branch officials
* Michael Flynn, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) and former Director of the DIA (2012–2014) (Democratic)

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Jared Polis (D) | Heidi Ganahl (R) | Other | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics | October 26 – November 5, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 53.0% | 42.3% | 4.7% | Polis +10.7 |
| FiveThirtyEight | June 8 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 54.1% | 41.8% | 4.1% | Polis +12.3 |
| 270ToWin | November 1–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 54.0% | 42.0% | 4.0% | Polis +12.0 |
| Average | Average | Average | 53.7% | 42.0% | 4.3% | Polis +11.7 |
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jared Polis (D) | Heidi Ganahl (R) | Other | Undecided |
| co/efficient (R) | November 3–7, 2022 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 54% | 43% | 2% | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D) | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,983 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 55% | 43% | 2% | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 43% | 5% | 3% |
| Emerson College | October 26–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 40% | 4% | 3% |
| Emerson College | October 26–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 41% | 4% | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 25–27, 2022 | 1,174 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 42% | 6% | 3% |
| CU Boulder/YouGov | October 11–19, 2022 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 41% | 2% | – |
| Civiqs | October 15–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 55% | 40% | 2% | 3% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | October 6–11, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 34% | 6% | 8% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | October 6–11, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 39% | – | 7% |
| Marist College | October 3–6, 2022 | 1,127 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 54% | 36% | 2% | 7% |
| Marist College | October 3–6, 2022 | 983 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 39% | 3% | 5% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 3–6, 2022 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 39% | 3% | 2% |
| Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | September 18–26, 2022 | 1,060 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 34% | 2% | 12% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 20–24, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 41% | 4% | 6% |
| Emerson College | September 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 36% | 2% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | August 21–22, 2022 | 1,503 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 15–19, 2022 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 42% | 6% | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 2–8, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 32% | 5% | 13% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 2–8, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 37% | – | 9% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | February 11–15, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 37% | – | 10% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | October 19–24, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 35% | – | 13% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 17–23, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 34% | – | 12% |
Jared Polis vs. Greg Lopez
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jared Polis (D) | Greg Lopez (R) | Danielle Neuschwanger (ACP) | Undecided |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 2–8, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 32% | 6% | 10% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 2–8, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
Jared Polis vs. Danielle Neuschwanger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jared Polis (D) | Danielle Neuschwanger (R) | Undecided |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | February 11–15, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Jared Polis vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jared Polis (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 2–8, 2022 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | February 11–15, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R) | January 12–13, 2022 | 630 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 44% | 8% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 17–23, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | 12% |

### Debates

2022 Colorado gubernatorial general election debates :
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
| Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | | |
| Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key:  P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Jared Polis | Heidi Ganahl |
| 2 | Oct. 14, 2022 | CBS Colorado | | | P | P |

### Results

* Democratic — +>15%
* Democratic — +12.5-15%
* Democratic — +10-12.5%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
* Democratic — +>15%
* Democratic — +12.5-15%
* Democratic — +10-12.5%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
2022 Colorado gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Jared Polis (incumbent)Dianne Primavera (incumbent) | 1,468,481 | 58.53% | +5.11% |
| | Republican | Heidi GanahlDanny Moore | 983,040 | 39.18% | −3.62% |
| | Libertarian | Kevin RuskuskyMichele Poague | 28,939 | 1.15% | −1.60% |
| | American Constitution | Danielle NeuschwangerDarryl Gibbs | 21,623 | 0.86% | N/A |
| | Unity | Paul Noël FiorinoCynthia Munhos de Aquino Sirianni | 6,687 | 0.27% | −0.75% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 60 | 0.0% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 2,540,680 | 100.0% | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 2,540,680 | 66.28% | |
| Registered electors | Registered electors | Registered electors | 3,833,360 | | |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Grand (largest city: Granby)
* Las Animas (largest city: Trinidad)

#### By congressional district

Polis won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.
| District | Polis | Ganahl | Representative |
| 1st | 82% | 16% | Diana DeGette |
| 2nd | 72% | 26% | Joe Neguse |
| 3rd | 50% | 47% | Lauren Boebert |
| 4th | 42% | 55% | Ken Buck |
| 5th | 47% | 50% | Doug Lamborn |
| 6th | 63% | 35% | Jason Crow |
| 7th | 60% | 38% | Ed Perlmutter (117th Congress) |
| 7th | 60% | 38% | Brittany Pettersen (118th Congress) |
| 8th | 53% | 44% | Yadira Caraveo |

## Analysis

Incumbent governor Jared Polis easily won re-election by 19.3%, a margin much larger than aggregate polling predicted. Polis piled up massive margins in the heavily populous North Central Colorado Urban Area, which contains the state capital Denver plus its surrounding suburbs Aurora, Thornton, Lakewood, and Broomfield; in addition to other major cities Boulder and Fort Collins, home to the University of Colorado and Colorado State University respectively. Outside the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins region, Polis also won a long row of counties along the Rocky Mountains from Routt in the north to La Plata in the south, which contains a number of liberal leaning ski resort towns like Telluride, Aspen, and Steamboat Springs. In Southern Colorado, a region historically known for coal mining, and home to a sizable Hispanic population, Polis managed to halt the decline in support for Democrats that had been taking place here since the mid-2010s in both state and federal races. Polis also won the relatively conservative city of Colorado Springs, the first Democrat to do so in recent history, along with greatly increasing his vote share in conservative-leaning urban counties compared to 2018. Polis's definitive victory likely helped other Democrats down the ballot to win their races or win them by comfortable margins, allowing Democrats to keep control of the state government.
Heidi Ganahl did best in the traditionally rural areas of Colorado bordering Kansas in the east, Utah in the west, and several larger counties including Weld (Greeley), Douglas (Castle Rock and Highlands Ranch), and El Paso (Colorado Springs). In the latter two counties, Ganahl significantly underperformed previous Republican nominees in these traditionally conservative urban counties, winning Douglas by 0.38% and El Paso by 3.97%, the closest either county had come to voting Democratic since 1994 and 1982 respectively. Ganahl failed to appeal to the large unaffiliated bloc of state voters along with political moderates. During her campaign, she highlighted her opposition to abortion (at odds with most Colorado voters), utilized incendiary right-wing rhetoric in regards to several social and cultural issues, and courted figures involved with pushing conspiracy theories about elections.
Prior to the election, an article by Daniel Strain from the University of Colorado reported that 71% of Colorado voters said their state's elections will be conducted "fairly and accurately", while 54% said the same for other elections across the United States. 53% of voters also disapproved of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization to overturn Roe v. Wade. 63% of voters said Joe Biden won the 2020 election, although Biden had a 52% disapproval among Centennial State voters compared to 39% who approved of him.
Despite Biden's low approval, a Marist poll conducted in October found that amongst 1,221 Colorado adults, Governor Polis had a 50% approval, while Ganahl suffered from low name recognition, with 42% having either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her. The same poll also found that 34% of voters were most concerned about inflation, followed by preserving democracy at 29%, abortion at 16%, crime at 7%, followed by healthcare and immigration at 6% each.