# 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

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vte :
The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent Independent Governor Bill Walker was seeking re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former Alaska state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic former Alaska U.S. Senator Mark Begich. Despite Walker dropping out on October 19, 2018, and endorsing Begich, Dunleavy won in what was the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. As of 2024, this was the last time the governor's office in Alaska changed partisan control. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for governor of Alaska in 2022.

## Independents
### Governor
#### Withdrew

* Bill Walker (Independent), incumbent governor

### Lieutenant governor
#### Withdrew

* Valerie Davidson (Independent), incumbent lieutenant governor since October 16
* Byron Mallott (Democratic), incumbent lieutenant governor until October 16

## Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.

### Governor
#### Declared

* Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. senator
* William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska governor in 2010

#### Polling

with Mark Begich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Begich | Les Gara | Chris Tuck | Bill Wielechowski | Undecided |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 205 | ± 2.2% | 42% | 15% | 3% | 8% | 32% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 205 | ± 2.2% | – | 25% | 5% | 19% | 51% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 205 | ± 2.2% | 49% | – | 5% | 12% | 34% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 205 | ± 2.2% | 43% | 15% | – | 8% | 34% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 205 | ± 2.2% | 44% | 19% | 4% | – | 32% |

#### Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Mark Begich | 33,451 | 85.3 |
| | Libertarian | William Toien | 5,790 | 14.8 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 39,241 | 100.0 |

### Lieutenant governor
#### Declared

* Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors representative

#### Withdrawn

* Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), former mayor of Seward

#### Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Debra Call | 34,291 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 34,291 | 100.0 |

## Republican primary
### Governor
#### Nominated

* Mike Dunleavy, educator and former state senator

#### Eliminated in primary

* Dorian Colbry
* Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon
* Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
* Merica Hlatcu
* Michael Sheldon
* Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor

#### Withdrawn

* Mike Chenault, state representative and former Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives
* Scott Hawkins, businessman

#### Declined

* Robert Gillam, businessman
* Loren Leman, former lieutenant governor
* Anna MacKinnon, state senator (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
* Peter Micciche, state senator (running for re-election to state senate)
* Joe Miller, former magistrate judge and perennial candidate
* Frank Murkowski, former governor of Alaska and U.S. Senator
* Sean Parnell, former governor of Alaska (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
* Ben Stevens, former president of the Alaska State Senate, son of former president pro tempore of the U.S. Senate, Solicitor of the Interior Department & U.S. Attorney Ted Stevens
* Dan Sullivan, former mayor of Anchorage and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014 (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
* Bill Walker, incumbent Independent governor (running for re-election as an Independent)

#### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mike Dunleavy | Scott Hawkins | Mead Treadwell | Other | Undecided |
| Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) | June 5–7, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 7% | 19% | 3% | 25% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Binkley | Mike Dunleavy | Peter Miccici | Joe Miller | Bill Walker | Other | Undecided |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 281 | ± 2.2% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 25% | 19% | 3% | 36% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 281 | ± 2.2% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 29% | – | 4% | 46% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 281 | ± 2.2% | 8% | 10% | 5% | – | 25% | 4% | 48% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 281 | ± 2.2% | – | – | – | 33% | 21% | – | 46% |

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Mike Dunleavy | 43,802 | 61.5 |
| | Republican | Mead Treadwell | 22,780 | 32.0 |
| | Republican | Michael Sheldon | 1,640 | 2.3 |
| | Republican | Merica Hlatcu | 1,064 | 1.5 |
| | Republican | Thomas Gordon | 884 | 1.4 |
| | Republican | Gerald Heikes | 499 | 0.7 |
| | Republican | Darin Colbry | 416 | 0.6 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 71,195 | 100.0 |

### Lieutenant governor
#### Declared

* Lynn Gattis, former state representative and candidate for the state senate in 2016
* Edie Grunwald, retired Air Force colonel and former human resources director for the Alaska National Guard
* Sharon Jackson, activist and former congressional staffer
* Kevin Meyer, state senator and former president of the Alaska Senate
* Gary Stevens, state senator
* Stephen Wright, Air Force veteran

#### Declined

* Glen Thompson, Ketchikan Gateway Borough Assemblyman
* David Wilson, state senator

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Kevin Meyer | 23,838 | 35.8 |
| | Republican | Edie Grunwald | 18,097 | 27.1 |
| | Republican | Gary Stevens | 8,123 | 12.2 |
| | Republican | Lynn Gattis | 6,156 | 10.4 |
| | Republican | Sharon Jackson | 5,394 | 8.1 |
| | Republican | Stephen Wright | 4,321 | 6.5 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 66,671 | 100.0 |

## General election
### Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day). However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot, as the deadline to withdraw was September 4.

### Debates

| Dates | Location | Dunleavy | Begich | Link |
| October 25, 2018 | Anchorage, Alaska | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R (flip) | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Tilt R (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |

#### Notes

* ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

### Endorsements
#### Statewide and local politicians

* Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska and former mayor of Anchorage
* Bill Walker, incumbent governor

#### Individuals

* Bella Hammond, former First Lady of Alaska

#### Labor unions

* Alaska AFL–CIO
* National Education Association – Alaska affiliate

#### Organizations

* The Alaska Center
* Alaskans Together for Equality
* Anchorage Police Department Employees Association
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund

#### U.S. executive branch officials

* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States

#### Federal politicians

* Lisa Murkowski, U.S. senator
* Dan S. Sullivan, U.S. senator
* Don Young, U.S. congressman

#### State and local politicians

* Anna MacKinnon, state senator
* Sean Parnell, former governor of Alaska
* Dick Randolph, former state representative
* Craig Richards, former Alaska attorney general
* Dan Sullivan, former Anchorage mayor
* Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor of Alaska

#### Individuals

* Joseph Ralston, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
* Mao Tosi, former NFL Arizona Cardinals defensive back

#### Organizations

* Alaska Forestry Association
* Alaska Outdoor Council
* Alaska's Public Safety Employees Association
* National Rifle Association of America
* Sportsmen's Conservation Alliance

#### Alaska Native corporations

* Arctic Slope Regional Corporation
* Calista Corporation

#### Organizations

* Alaska AFL–CIO
* The Centrist Project
* NEA-Alaska

### Polling

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Walker (I) | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Mark Begich (D) | Billy Toien (L) | Other | Undecided |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 26–29, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 8% | 43% | 42% | 3% | – | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 19–22, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 5% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 3% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 12–14, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 27% | 43% | 26% | – | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 11–12, 2018 | 645 | – | 24% | 43% | 23% | – | – | 9% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 27% | 47% | 23% | – | – | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 23% | 44% | 29% | – | – | 4% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | August 13–16, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 26% | 36% | 24% | – | 2% | 12% |
| Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) | June 22–28, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 28% | 36% | 22% | – | – | 15% |
| Harstad Strategic Research (D) | June 21–26, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 28% | 32% | 28% | – | – | 12% |
| Alaska Survey Research | June 15–21, 2018 | 654 | ± 3.8% | 23% | 38% | 33% | – | – | 6% |
with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Begich (D) | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Undecided |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 12–14, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 52% | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 55% | 5% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | August 13–16, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | – |
| Harstad Strategic Research (D) | June 21–26, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 25–29, 2018 | 761 | ± 3.6% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Walker (I) | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Undecided |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 12–14, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 52% | 2% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 53% | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 54% | 5% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | August 13–16, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | – |
| Harstad Strategic Research (D) | June 21–26, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 25–29, 2018 | 761 | ± 3.6% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) | February 26 – March 4, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) | February 20–22, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 33% | 31% |
with Bill Walker and Mark Begich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Walker (I) | Mark Begich (D) | Undecided |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 12–14, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | 16% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 41% | 18% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 46% | 15% |

### Results

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Mike Dunleavy | 145,631 | 51.44% | +5.56% |
| | Democratic | Mark Begich | 125,739 | 44.41% | +44.41% |
| | Independent | Bill Walker (incumbent; withdrawn) | 5,757 | 2.03% | −46.07% |
| | Libertarian | William Toien | 5,402 | 1.91% | −1.30% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 605 | 0.21% | −0.11% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 283,134 | 100.00% | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 284,891 | 49.82% | |
| Registered electors | Registered electors | Registered electors | 571,851 | | |
| | Republican gain from Independent | Republican gain from Independent | Republican gain from Independent | Republican gain from Independent | Republican gain from Independent |

#### Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican

* Denali Borough (largest city: Healy)
* Fairbanks North Star (largest city: Fairbanks)
* Petersburg
* Valdez–Cordova Census Area (largest city: Valdez)

#### Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic

* Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
* Anchorage
* Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
* Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
* Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
* Dilingham Census Area (largest city: Dilingham)
* Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
* Lake & Peninsula Borough (largest city: Newhalen)
* North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
* Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
* Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
* Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area (largest city: Fort Yukon)
* Juneau
* Sitka
* Skagway
* Hoonah–Angoon Census Area (largest town: Hoonah)
* Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
* Yakutat

#### Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
* Bristol Bay Borough (largest city: Naknek)