# 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

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vte :
The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.
Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander. Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state. This is also the closest a Democrat has come to winning this seat since 1980.

## Republican primary

Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.

### Candidates
#### Declared

* Roy Blunt, incumbent senator since 2011
* Ryan Luethy, financial services worker
* Bernie Mowinski, retired army sergeant and perennial candidate
* Kristi Nichols, sales manager, Tea Party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

#### Withdrew

* Christopher Batsche, businessman (running for MO-07)

#### Declined

* Todd Akin, former U.S. Representative from 2001 to 2013 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012
* John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Governor)
* John Lamping, former state senator

### Endorsements

Presidents
* George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States
U.S. Senators
* John Cornyn, Texas; Senate Majority Whip
* Ted Cruz, Texas; 2016 presidential candidate
U.S. Representatives
* Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the House and U.S. Representative (WI-01)
Individuals
* John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations
* Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 California nominee for U.S. Senate, and 2016 presidential candidate
Organizations
* National Federation of Independent Business
* National Rifle Association of America
* United States Chamber of Commerce

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Blunt | Kristi Nichols | Bernie Mowinski | Ryan Luethy | Undecided |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 66% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Blunt | John Brunner | Other | Undecided |
| Remington Research Group | January 2015 | 1,355 | ± ? | 60% | 40% | — | — |
| Remington Research Group | February 2–3, 2015 | 747 | 3.6% | 50% | 19% | — | 32% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Roy Blunt (incumbent) | 481,444 | 72.55% |
| | Republican | Kristi Nichols | 134,025 | 20.20% |
| | Republican | Ryan Luethy | 29,328 | 4.42% |
| | Republican | Bernie Mowinski | 18,789 | 2.83% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 663,586 | 100.00% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Cori Bush, pastor, nurse and co-director of the Truth Telling Project
* Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri since 2013
* Robert Mack, military veteran
* Chief Wana Dubie, marijuana activist

#### Declined

* Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri since 2009
* Mike Sanders, Jackson County Executive, former Jackson County prosecuting attorney and former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party
* Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri since 2009

### Endorsements

Vice presidents
* Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States
Governors
* Jay Nixon, Missouri
U.S. Senators
* Al Franken, Minnesota
* Martin Heinrich, New Mexico
* Claire McCaskill, Missouri
* Harry Reid, Nevada and Senate Minority Leader
* Jon Tester, Montana
* Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts
U.S. Representatives
* Emanuel Cleaver II, Missouri
Statewide Officials
* Chris Koster, Missouri Attorney General and candidate for Governor of Missouri
* Clint Zweifel, Missouri State Treasurer
Organizations
* Americans for Responsible Solutions
* Daily Kos
* League of Conservation Voters
* Planned Parenthood
* Sierra Club

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jason Kander | Cori Bush | Robert Mack | Chief Wana Dubie | Undecided |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 67% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 20% |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Jason Kander | 223,492 | 69.87% |
| | Democratic | Cori Bush | 42,453 | 13.27% |
| | Democratic | Chief Wana Dubie | 30,432 | 9.51% |
| | Democratic | Robert Mack | 23,509 | 7.35% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 319,886 | 100.00% |

## Third party and independent candidates
### Libertarian primary
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Jonathan Dine, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012
* Herschel Young

#### Results

Libertarian primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 2,002 | 54.90% |
| | Libertarian | Herschel Young | 1,642 | 45.06% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 3,644 | 100.00% |

### Constitution primary
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Fred Ryman

#### Results

Constitution primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Constitution | Fred Ryman | 545 | 100.00% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 545 | 100.00% |

### Green Party
#### Candidates
##### Declared

* Johnathan McFarland

### Write-in

* Gina Bufe
* Patrick Lee

## General election
### Debates

| Date | Host | Moderator | Link(s) | Participants | Participants | Participants | Participants | Participants |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | | | | | |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W Withdrawn | Roy Blunt | Jonathan Dine | Jason Kander | Jonathan McFarland | Fred Ryman |
| September 30, 2016 | Associated Press | David Lieb | | P | P | P | P | P |

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos | Lean R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Blunt (R) | Jason Kander (D) | Other | Undecided |
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,368 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 51% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,119 | ± 4.6% | 43% | 51% | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | November 4–5, 2016 | 750 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 879 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | — | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 774 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 31 – November 1, 2016 | 1,083 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) | October 31 – November 1, 2016 | 1,722 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 5% |
| DFM Research | October 27 – November 1, 2016 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 41% | 9% | 9% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 649 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2016 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 45% | 6% | 4% |
| Monmouth University | October 28–31, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 46% | 3% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 671 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R) | October 27–28, 2016 | 1,698 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 44% | 4% | 5% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | October 24–26, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 5% |
| Emerson College | October 17–19, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | 4% | 8% |
| Google Consumer Surveys | October 12–14, 2016 | 521 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 52% | — | 3% |
| Monmouth University | October 9–11, 2016 | 406 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | 3% | 7% |
| Emerson College | September 9–13, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 10% | 8% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) | September 1–2, 2016 | 1,275 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Monmouth University | August 19–22, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | 3% | 7% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | August 5–6, 2016 | 1,280 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 6% | 7% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | July 23–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 11–12, 2016 | 959 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) | March 25–26, 2016 | 927 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 37% | — | 19% |
| DFM Research | March 17–24, 2016 | 674 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 35% | 2% | 14% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) | October 30–31, 2015 | 783 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 33% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | — | 25% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | February 19, 2015 | 957 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 36% | — | 14% |

### Results

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Roy Blunt (incumbent) | 1,378,458 | 49.18% | −5.05% |
| | Democratic | Jason Kander | 1,300,200 | 46.39% | +5.76% |
| | Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 67,738 | 2.42% | −0.60% |
| | Green | Johnathan McFarland | 30,743 | 1.10% | N/A |
| | Constitution | Fred Ryman | 25,407 | 0.91% | −1.22% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 95 | 0.03% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 2,802,641 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Boone (Largest city: Columbia)
* Clay (Largest city: Kansas City)
* Platte (Largest city: Kansas City)

#### By congressional district

Blunt won 6 of 8 congressional districts.
| District | Blunt | Kander | Representative |
| 1st | 17% | 79% | Lacy Clay |
| 2nd | 48.3% | 48.2% | Ann Wagner |
| 3rd | 55% | 40% | Blaine Luetkemeyer |
| 4th | 56% | 39% | Vicky Hartzler |
| 5th | 34% | 61% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 54% | 41% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 64% | 32% | Billy Long |
| 8th | 63% | 33% | Jason Smith |