# 2023 Portage—Lisgar federal by-election

A by-election was held in the federal riding of Portage—Lisgar in Manitoba, Canada on June 19, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen.
The by-election was held on the same day as three others; Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Oxford and Winnipeg South Centre. It resulted in the landslide victory of Conservative Branden Leslie, in what many analysts described as a test for both the Tories and Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada, the latter of which got 21% of the vote in this riding in 2021, their best nationwide. After the by-election, Bernier announced his intentions to run in the riding again in the next federal election, though acknowledging that the result had not been desirable for him. In 2025, Bernier announced that he would instead contest the Quebec riding of Beauce where he previously served as MP until 2019.

## Background
### Constituency

Portage—Lisgar is a large rural constituency in Southern Manitoba. It includes the cities of Portage la Prairie, Winkler, and Morden, and the towns of Carman, Morris and Altona. Lisgar is named after John Young, 1st Baron Lisgar who was Canadas 2nd Governor General from 1869 to 1872. The riding has voted for centre-right parties since its inception in 1997.

### Representation

The riding of Portage—Lisgar was vacated on February 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen. Bergen, a cabinet minister in the government of Stephen Harper and the interim leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from February to September 2022, had held the seat since 2008.

## Candidates
### Conservative

Bergen's former campaign manager Branden Leslie defeated Rejeanne Caron, the party's 2019 candidate in Saint Boniface—Saint Vital and 2021 candidate in Elmwood—Transcona; Winkler resident Don Cruickshank, Morden-Winkler MLA and former Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba cabinet minister Cameron Friesen; and Lawrence Toet, the MP for Elmwood—Transcona from 2011 to 2015 for the Conservative nomination. Liz Reimer, a Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba staffer and former assistant to Friesen, and Josh Okello were previously running for the nomination, however after Friesen announced his campaign they withdrew their bids in order to run for the Progressive Conservative nomination in Morden-Winkler. Laurence Toet was endorsed by the constituency's former MP Charles Mayer.

### Others

Maxime Bernier, who is the former MP for Beauce and the current leader of the People's Party of Canada, announced on May 12, 2023, that he would run for the seat.
The Liberals announced Kerry Smith as their candidate on May 13. She is the senior director of the Manitoba Métis Foundation.
The New Democratic Party announced their candidate as teacher Lisa Tessier-Burch.
The Green Party of Manitoba selected Nicolas Geddert, a community organizer and volunteer as their candidate. He was an unsuccessful candidate for leader of the Green Party of Manitoba in early 2023. In 2022, he was the candidate in the Fort Whyte by-election.

### Polling

| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | CPC | PPC | LPC | NDP | GPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | Polling Method |
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 | HTML | 41 | 26 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | ±5.2 pp | 362 | IVR |
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 | HTML | 43 | 27 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 2 | — | ±5.2 pp | 362 | IVR |

## Results

vteCanadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Portage—Lisgar Resignation of Candice Bergen :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | Branden Leslie | 20,250 | 64.95 | +12.43 |
| | People's | Max Bernier | 5,352 | 17.16 | −4.42 |
| | Liberal | Kerry Smith | 2,666 | 8.55 | −2.40 |
| | New Democratic | Lisa Tessier-Burch | 2,208 | 7.08 | −6.30 |
| | Green | Nicolas Geddert | 704 | 2.26 | – |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 31,180 | 99.40 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 188 | 0.60 | −0.15 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 31,368 | 45.47 | −20.77 |
| Eligible voters | Eligible voters | Eligible voters | 68,988 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | Swing | +8.42 |
| Source: Elections Canada |||||||

## 2021 result

vte2021 Canadian federal election: Portage—Lisgar :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Conservative | Candice Bergen | 23,819 | 52.52 | –18.28 | $75,005.66 |
| | People's | Solomon Wiebe | 9,790 | 21.58 | +18.97 | $12,104.29 |
| | New Democratic | Ken Friesen | 6,068 | 13.38 | +4.70 | $2,822.40 |
| | Liberal | Andrew Carrier | 4,967 | 10.95 | +0.24 | $14,348.06 |
| | Christian Heritage | Jerome Dondo | 712 | 1.57 | –0.36 | $7,509.16 |
| Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | 45,356 | 99.25 | – | $111,667.24 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 341 | 0.75 | +0.13 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 45,697 | 66.24 | –0.40 |
| Eligible voters | Eligible voters | Eligible voters | 68,991 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | Swing | –18.62 |
| Source: Elections Canada |||||||