# 2023 Madeiran regional election

Regional elections were held in Madeira on 24 September 2023, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election replaced all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.
The incumbent president, Miguel Albuquerque from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the CDS – People's Party, and defended the dominance of the Social Democratic Party in the islands since 1976. The PSD and CDS–PP contested the election in a joint coalition.
The "We are Madeira" coalition, between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), won the election with 43 percent of the votes but, despite polling predictions, failed to hold on to their majority and won 23 seats, one short of a majority. On election night, Miguel Albuquerque announced he would present a "parliamentary majority solution" very shortly, but didn't give much details nor said with whom, although he refused any talks with CHEGA.
The Socialist Party (PS) suffered a big fall in support gathering just 21 percent of the votes and 11 seats, compared with their best results ever in 2019, almost 36 percent and 19 seats. Unlike 2019, it failed to win a single parish and municipality. Together for the People (JPP) had their best showing ever, winning 11 percent of the votes and 5 seats, two more compared with 2019.
Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) was able to hold on to their sole seat and even increased their share of vote to 2.7 percent, compared with the 1.8 percent in 2019. CHEGA (CH), which faced legal disputes regarding their presence on the ballot due to annulments of internal party decisions and that were settled with a Constitutional Court ruling that confirmed that the party could be on the ballot, had a very strong showing, winning almost 9 percent of the votes and electing 4 members to the regional parliament, a 8.5 percent growth compared with 2019.
The Liberal Initiative (IL) won 2.6 percent of the votes and elected one seat. The regional leader, Nuno Morna said he was open to talks with the PSD/CDS–PP coalition. Likewise, People-Animals-Nature (PAN), which won 2.2 percent of the votes and returned after 8 years to the regional parliament, was also open to supporting a PSD/CDS–PP government. Left Bloc (BE) polled 2.2 percent and also returned to the Madeira Parliament after losing their seat in 2019.
Two days after the election, PAN and the PSD/CDS–PP signed a deal that ensured a majority in the regional Parliament. PSD/CDS–PP accepted a series of PAN demands and Miguel Albuquerque said he was "very pleased" by the outcome of the deal. Also, Albuquerque didn't rule out occasional agreements with the Liberal Initiative.
The turnout in these elections decreased compared to the previous one, with 53.3 percent of voters casting a ballot, compared with the 55.5 percent in the 2019 elections.

## Background

In the 2019 regional election, the PSD was again the most voted party, 39 percent, but failed for the first time to win an absolute majority. The party was followed closely by the PS which polled at almost 36 percent. After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government which guaranteed an absolute majority in the regional parliament.
In the aftermath of the 2021 local elections, in which the PS lost a lot of ground, especially the loss of Funchal to a PSD/CDS–PP coalition, the then PS leader Paulo Cafôfo resigned from the leadership and refused to run again. In the following PS leadership election, in February 2022, Sérgio Gonçalves was elected as the new leader with 98.6 percent of the votes.

## Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.

## Parties
### Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader | 2019 result | 2019 result |
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader | % | Seats |
| | PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata | Liberal conservatism | Miguel Albuquerque | 39.4% | 21 / 47 |
| | PS | Socialist Party Partido Socialista | Social democracy | Sérgio Gonçalves | 35.8% | 19 / 47 |
| | CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular | Conservatism | Rui Barreto | 5.8% | 3 / 47 |
| | JPP | Together for the People Juntos pelo Povo | Centrism | Élvio Sousa | 5.5% | 3 / 47 |
| | PCP | Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português | Communism | Edgar Silva | 1.8% | 1 / 47 |

### Parties running in the election

13 parties/coalitions were on the ballot for the 2023 Madeira regional election. The parties/coalitions that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot)
* Portuguese Labour Party (PTP), Quintino Costa
* Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa
* Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada
* Socialist Party (PS), Sérgio Gonçalves
* Enough (CH), Miguel Castro
* React, Include, Recycle (RIR), Roberto Vieira
* Earth Party (MPT), Valter Rodrigues
* National Democratic Alternative (ADN), Miguel Pita
* Social Democratic Party/CDS – People's Party We are Madeira coalition (PSD/CDS–PP), Miguel Albuquerque
* People-Animals-Nature (PAN), Mónica Freitas
* LIVRE (L), Tiago Camacho
* Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
* Liberal Initiative (IL), Nuno Morna

## Campaign period
### Party slogans

| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation |
| PSD/CDS–PP | « Somos Madeira » | "We are Madeira" |
| PS | « O voto que muda a Madeira » | "The vote that changes Madeira" |
| JPP | « Em frente. Sem medo! » | "Forward. Without fear!" |
| CDU | « Viver melhor na nossa terra! » | "Live better in our land!" |
| BE | « O Bloco faz falta » | "The Bloc is needed" |
| PAN | « O voto que faz a diferença » | "The vote that makes the difference" |
| IL | « O liberalismo funciona. E faz falta à Madeira » | "Liberalism works. And Madeira needs it" |
| CH | « Vamos acabar com a corrupção na Madeira! » | "Let's end corruption in Madeira!" |

### Election debates

2023 Madeiran regional election debates :
| Date | Organisers | Moderator | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee |
| Date | Organisers | Moderator | PSD/CDS | PS | JPP | CDU | BE | PAN | RIR | PTP | IL | CH | ADN | MPT | L | Ref. |
| 24 Aug | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | P Morna | A | P Pita | P Rodrigues | P Camacho | |
| 31 Aug | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | P Almada | P Freitas | P Vieira | P Costa | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | |
| 7 Sep | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | P Albuquerque | P Gonçalves | P Sousa | P Silva | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | |

## Opinion polls
### Polling

Polls that showed their results without distributing those respondents who were undecided or said they would abstain from voting, were re-calculated by removing those numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.  Exit poll
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| 2023 regional election | 24 Sep 2023 | — | 53.3 | 43.1 23 | 43.1 23 | 21.3 11 | 11.0 5 | 2.7 1 | 2.2 1 | 2.3 1 | 2.6 1 | 8.9 4 | 4.9 0 | 21.8 |
| CESOP–UCP | 24 Sep 2023 | 8,021 | 52–56 | 44–48 23/26 | 44–48 23/26 | 18–21 9/12 | 9–12 4/6 | 2–3 1 | 2–3 1 | 1–3 0/1 | 2–4 1 | 8–10 3/5 | | 26.5 |
| CESOP–UCP | 16–17 Sep 2023 | 1,613 | ? | 50.0 24/28 | 50.0 24/28 | 23.0 10/13 | 7.0 2/4 | 2.0 0/1 | 3.0 1/2 | 1.5 0/1 | 1.5 0/1 | 7.0 2/4 | 5.0 0 | 27.0 |
| Intercampus | 29 Aug–13 Sep 2023 | 603 | ? | 49.0 26 | 49.0 26 | 22.8 12 | 9.5 5 | 1.7 0 | 1.7 0 | 1.0 0 | 3.0 1 | 6.8 3 | 4.5 0 | 26.2 |
| Aximage | 28 Aug–10 Sep 2023 | 602 | ? | 58.4 30 | 58.4 30 | 15.5 8 | 8.4 4 | 3.2 1 | 1.7 0 | 1.9 0 | 4.5 2 | 4.5 2 | 1.9 0 | 42.9 |
| Metris | 21–26 Aug 2023 | 402 | ? | 52.5 24/28 | 52.5 24/28 | 21.5 10/14 | 10.0 4/6 | 1.1 0/1 | 1.1 0/1 | 1.5 0/1 | 3.8 1/2 | 6.1 2/4 | 2.4 0 | 31.0 |
| Aximage | 10–23 Jul 2023 | 611 | ? | 57.2 30 | 57.2 30 | 15.6 8 | 10.0 5 | 2.0 1 | 1.6 0 | 1.5 0 | 3.5 1 | 4.7 2 | 3.9 0 | 41.6 |
| Aximage | 23 May–5 Jun 2023 | 604 | ? | 54.0 28 | 54.0 28 | 16.8 8 | 11.6 6 | 1.3 0 | 2.6 1 | 2.0 1 | 2.6 1 | 4.8 2 | 4.3 0 | 37.2 |
| Intercampus | 15–24 May 2023 | 404 | ? | 44.9 23 | 44.9 23 | 28.5 14 | 7.9 4 | 1.7 0 | 1.0 0 | 2.1 1 | 4.7 2 | 6.2 3 | 3.0 0 | 16.4 |
| Aximage | 14–24 Feb 2023 | 603 | ? | 55.0 29 | 55.0 29 | 16.8 8 | 13.8 7 | 1.9 1 | 1.4 0 | 0.9 0 | 3.2 1 | 3.6 1 | 3.4 0 | 38.2 |
| Intercampus | 20–30 Jan 2023 | 400 | ? | 45.2 | 45.2 | 29.5 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 15.7 |
| Intercampus | 20–30 Jan 2023 | 400 | ? | 44.7 | 1.7 | 30.2 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 14.5 |
| Aximage | 14–26 Oct 2022 | 601 | 58.4 | 54.0 | 54.0 | 26.6 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 27.4 |
| Aximage | 14–26 Oct 2022 | 601 | 58.4 | 51.5 | 5.2 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 26.4 |
| Aximage | 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 | 414 | 65.9 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 18.6 | 10.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 31.5 |
| Aximage | 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 | 414 | 65.9 | 52.6 | 1.9 | 17.3 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 8.6 | 35.3 |
| 2022 legislative elections | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 49.6 | 39.8 (21) | 39.8 (21) | 31.5 (17) | 6.9 (3) | 2.0 (1) | 3.2 (1) | 1.6 (0) | 3.3 (1) | 6.1 (3) | 5.2 (0) | 8.3 |
| 2021 local elections | 26 Sep 2021 | — | 54.6 | 43.0 (23) | 3.4 (1) | 29.5 (16) | 10.0 (5) | 2.0 (1) | — | — | 1.2 (0) | 2.5 (1) | 8.4 (0) | 13.5 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Jun 2020 | 415 | ? | 42.2 | 2.3 | 27.5 | — | 2.1 | 2.1 | — | — | — | 23.8 | 14.7 |
| 2019 legislative election | 6 Oct 2019 | — | 50.3 | 37.2 (20) | 6.1 (3) | 33.4 (18) | 5.5 (3) | 2.1 (1) | 5.2 (2) | 1.8 (0) | 0.7 (0) | 0.7 (0) | 7.4 (0) | 3.8 |
| 2019 regional election | 22 Sep 2019 | — | 55.5 | 39.4 21 | 5.8 3 | 35.8 19 | 5.5 3 | 1.8 1 | 1.7 0 | 1.5 0 | 0.5 0 | 0.4 0 | 7.6 0 | 3.6 |
Paulo Cafôfo as PS leader
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | JPP | | | | | | O | Lead |
| Aximage | 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 | 414 | 65.9 | 48.1 | 48.1 | 18.6 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 9.2 | 29.5 |
| Aximage | 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 | 414 | 65.9 | 48.3 | 2.4 | 20.6 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 27.7 |

## Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.
| Turnout | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time |
| Turnout | 12:00 | 12:00 | 12:00 | 16:00 | 16:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | 19:00 | 19:00 |
| Turnout | 2019 | 2023 | ± | 2019 | 2023 | ± | 2019 | 2023 | ± |
| Total | 20.97% | 20.98% | 0.01 pp | 40.79% | 39.90% | 0.89 pp | 55.51% | 53.35% | 2.16 pp |
| Sources ||||||||||

## Results

Summary of the 24 September 2023 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results :
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs %/ votes % |
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | 2019 | 2023 | ± | % | ± | MPs %/ votes % |
| | We are Madeira (PSD/CDS–PP) | 58,394 | 43.11 | 2.1 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 48.94 | 2.1 | 1.14 |
| | Socialist | 28,840 | 21.29 | 14.5 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 23.40 | 17.0 | 1.10 |
| | Together for the People | 14,933 | 11.03 | 5.6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10.63 | 4.2 | 0.96 |
| | CHEGA | 12,029 | 8.88 | 8.5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8.51 | 8.5 | 0.96 |
| | Unitary Democratic Coalition | 3,677 | 2.71 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.13 | 0.0 | 0.79 |
| | Liberal Initiative | 3,555 | 2.62 | 2.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.13 | 2.1 | 0.81 |
| | People-Animals-Nature | 3,046 | 2.25 | 0.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.13 | 2.1 | 0.95 |
| | Left Bloc | 3,035 | 2.24 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.13 | 2.1 | 0.95 |
| | Labour | 1,369 | 1.01 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | LIVRE | 858 | 0.63 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | React, Include, Recycle | 727 | 0.54 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Earth | 696 | 0.51 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | National Democratic Alternative | 617 | 0.46 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total valid | Total valid | 131,776 | 97.29 | 0.4 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 100.00 | 0.0 | — |
| Blank ballots | Blank ballots | 842 | 0.62 | 0.1 | | | | | | |
| Invalid ballots | Invalid ballots | 2,828 | 2.09 | 0.3 | | | | | | |
| Total | Total | 135,446 | 100.00 | | | | | | | |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | 253,877 | 53.35 | 2.2 | | | | | | |
| Sources: |||||||||||
Vote share
PSD/CDS–PP
43.11%
PS
21.29%
JPP
11.03%
CH
8.88%
CDU
2.71%
IL
2.62%
PAN
2.25%
BE
2.24%
PTP
1.01%
Others
2.14%
Blank/Invalid
2.71% :
Parliamentary seats
PSD/CDS–PP
48.94%
PS
23.40%
JPP
10.63%
CH
8.51%
CDU
2.13%
IL
2.13%
PAN
2.13%
BE
2.13% :

### Maps

* Most voted political force by municipality.

## Aftermath
### Government approval

With the loss of their majority, PSD and CDS–PP reached a deal with People-Animals-Nature (PAN) in order to ensure a parliamentary majority. On 17 November 2023, the regional parliament approved Albuquerque's third government:
2023 Motion of confidence Miguel Albuquerque (PSD) :
| Ballot → | Ballot → | 17 November 2023 |
| Required majority → | Required majority → | Simple Y |
| | Yes • PSD (20) • CDS–PP (3) • PAN (1) | 24 / 47 |
| | No • PS (11) • JPP (5) • CH (4) • PCP (1) • IL (1) • BE (1) | 23 / 47 |
| | Abstentions | 0 / 47 |
| | Absentees | 0 / 47 |
| Sources ||||

### Fall of the government

On 24 January 2024, the Judiciary Police and the Public Prosecutor's office conducted a series of searches all across Madeira, from government offices to private companies, regarding corruption and abuse of power accusations surrounding real estate businesses in the region. The mayor of Funchal, Pedro Calado, and two businessmen were arrested by the police, while Miguel Albuquerque was named as a formal suspect. At first, Albuquerque refused to resign, but due to PAN's threat of withdrawing their support from the PSD/CDS-PP minority government, Miguel Abuquerque retracted his earlier position and resigned from office. But, despite this resignation, divisions inside the PSD resulted in no solution for Albuquerque's succession. Afterwards, the Representative of the Republic in Madeira, Ireneu Barreto, started hearing parties represented in the regional Parliament to decide the path to follow.
After hearing parties, Ireneu Barreto, on 17 February, announced that he would keep Albuquerque in office, in a caretaker capacity, until the President of Portugal decides whether there should be early elections or a new government under the current parliament. Because electoral rules determine that Parliaments can only be dissolved six months after the election of the previous one, the regional Parliament could only be dissolved from 24 March 2024 onwards. The President of Portugal decided, on 27 March 2024, to dissolve the regional parliament and call early elections for 26 May.