# Opinion polling for the next Senedd election

.mw-parser-output .hover-highlight tr:hover,.mw-parser-output .mw-datatable tr:hover{background-color:var(--background-color-progressive-subtle,#eaf3ff);color:var(--color-base,#333)}.mw-parser-output .mw-datatable{background-color:var(--background-color-base,#fff);color:var(--color-base,#333)} In the run-up to the next Senedd election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Senedd election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, which can be held no later than 7 May 2026.

## Opinion polling

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Others | Lead |
| 25–29 Nov 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,121 | 23% | 19% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 23% | 1% | 1 |
| 4–24 Nov 2024 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 500 | 27% | 18% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 24% | 2% | 3 |
| 18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 | Survation | Reform UK | 2,006 | 29% | 18% | 20% | 7% | 7% | 19% | 1% | 9 |
| 6 Aug 2024 | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales |
| 5–18 Jul 2024 | Welsh Election Study | N/A | 2,565 | 25% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 8% AWA on 7% Other on 1% | 1 |
| 27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,072 | 27% | 18% | 23% | 5% | 6% | 18% | 3% | 4 |
| 5–7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 960 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 2% AWA on 2% Other on 0% | 14 |
| 30 May – 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,066 | 30% | 19% | 23% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 7 |
| 18–19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 37% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 10% | 5% AWA on 5% Other on 0% | 17 |
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election (regional) | 2021 Senedd election (regional) | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 8.2% | 11.1 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election (constituency) | 2021 Senedd election (constituency) | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 13.8 |

### Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

#### Regional vote

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Others | Lead |
| 24 Jun 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. |
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 33% | 18% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 5% AWA on 4% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 32% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 7% AWA on 6% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 29% | 16% | 25% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 8% AWA on 7% Other on 1% | 4 |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 34% | 19% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% AWA on 6% Other on 1% | 13 |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 28% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 5% AWA on 4% Other on 1% | 4 |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 6% AWA on 5% Other on 1% | 11 |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% AWA on 7% Other on 0% | 10 |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 35% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 3% AWA on 2% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 34% | 16% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 12% AWA on 9% UKIP on 1% Other on 2% | 14 |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 31% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 3% | 9 |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 33% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 13 |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 8 |
| 1 Jun 2023 | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru |
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 36% | 16% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% AWA on 5% UKIP on 1% Other on 1% | 18 |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 30% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 6 |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 32% | 22% | 23% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 9 |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 39% | 18% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% AWA on 6% Other on 2% | 19 |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 38% | 16% | 23% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 12% AWA on 8% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 15 |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 37% | 18% | 21% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 10% AWA on 7% UKIP on 2% Other on 1% | 16 |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 10% AWA on 6% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 7 |
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 34% | 23% | 20% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 9% AWA on 6% UKIP on 1% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 11 |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 35% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 9% AWA on 6% UKIP on 2% Other on 1% | 13 |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 33% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 11% AWA on 6% UKIP on 4% Other on 1% | 7 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election | 2021 Senedd election | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 8.2% | 11.1 |

##### By section

| Date conducted | Subsection | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Lead |
| November 2024 | South West Wales and the Valleys | 1000 (500) | 28 | 13 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| November 2024 | Cardiff and South East Wales | 1000 (500) | 34 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 11 |
| November 2024 | North and Mid Wales | 1000 (500) | 21 | 18 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 24 | Tie |
| November 2024 | Male voters | 1000 (500) | 28 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| November 2024 | Female voters | 1000 (500) | 27 | 15 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| November 2024 | Aged 16-34 | 1000 (500) | 37 | 9 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 16 |
| November 2024 | Aged 34-54 | 1000 (500) | 32 | 15 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 11 |
| November 2024 | Aged over 55 | 1000 (500) | 21 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 7 |
| November 2024 | ABC1 | 1000 (500) | 28 | 23 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| November 2024 | C2DE | 1000 (500) | 26 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 8 |
| November 2024 | Welsh speakers | 1000 (500) | 24 | 16 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 7 |
| November 2024 | Non-Welsh speakers | 1000 (500) | 29 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 3 |

#### Constituency vote

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | Green | Reform | Other | Lead |
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. |
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 37% | 21% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 3% AWA on 3% Other on 0% | 15 |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 36% | 21% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 4% AWA on 3% Other on 1% | 15 |
| 20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 34% | 21% | 19% | 4% | 3% | 13% | 6% AWA on 7% Other on 1% | 13 |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 39% | 25% | 18% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 4% AWA on 3% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 41% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 3% AWA on 3% Other on 0% | 19 |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 40% | 23% | 18% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 4% AWA on 3% Other on 1% | 17 |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 37% | 27% | 18% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 5% AWA on 5% Other on 0% | 10 |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 39% | 27% | 18% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 2% AWA on 1% Other on 1% | 12 |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 41% | 18% | 19% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 22 |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 37% | 21% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 16 |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 42% | 22% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 20 |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 14 |
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 40% | 18% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 22 |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 38% | 23% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 15 |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 41% | 21% | 20% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 20 |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 43% | 18% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 23 |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 44% | 17% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 24 |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 40% | 20% | 22% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 18 |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 37% | 24% | 21% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 13 |
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 38% | 24% | 21% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 14 |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 40% | 23% | 17% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 17 |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 37% | 27% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 10 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election | 2021 Senedd election | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 13.8 |