# 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Alaska has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. This was the first presidential election following the state's adoption of Measure 2, which institutes ranked-choice voting for all statewide general elections.
While Republicans were still heavily favored to carry the state in 2024, Alaska has shifted closer to the center since the 2010s and is now considered a moderately red state. Trump won Alaska by 13.1%, an improvement from his 10.1% win in 2020, though lower than his 14.7% victory in 2016.

## Primary elections
### Republican caucus

The Alaska Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Alaska Republican primary, March 5, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 9,243 | 87.58% | 29 | | 29 |
| Nikki Haley | 1,266 | 12.00% | | | |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 45 | 0.43% | | | |
| Total: | 10,554 | 100.00% | 29 | | 29 |

### Democratic caucus

The Alaska Democratic caucus was held on April 13, 2024. Joe Biden was the only person on the ballot and won the caucus via voice vote with 15 pledged delegates.
Alaska Democratic caucuses, April 13, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | Voice vote | Voice vote | 15 | | 15 |
| Total: | Total: | Total: | 15 | | 15 |

## General election
### Candidates

The following candidates qualified for the general election:
* Kamala Harris / Tim Walz — Democratic
* Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan — Independent
* Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat — Libertarian
* Peter Sonski / Lauren Onak — American Solidarity Party
* Jill Stein / Butch Ware — Independent (national Green nominee)
* Randall Terry / Stephen Broden — Constitution
* Donald Trump / JD Vance — Republican
* Cornel West / Melina Abdullah — Aurora
Voters did not have the option to write in candidates for president and vice president. This was the first presidential election in Alaska to use ranked choice (instant runoff) voting.
Independent candidate Cornel West appeared on the ballot as the nominee of the Aurora Party, a party that only exists in Alaska and only has ballot access for presidential elections.

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | June 13, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe R | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Very Likely R | September 15, 2024 |
| CNN | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist | Safe R | November 3, 2024 |
| 538 | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov | Solid R | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Likely R | November 1, 2024 |

### Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,703 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 55% | 45% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 8–9, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Cygnal (R) | August 30 – September 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 43% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,703 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 51% | 43% | 7% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 8–9, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 43% | 7% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 27–29, 2024 | 1,182 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 43% | 6% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 5% | 6% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| | July 21, 2024 | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| Data for Progress (D) | February 23 – March 2, 2024 | 1,120 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 13–18, 2023 | 1,375 (LV) | – | 45% | 37% | 19% |
| Alaska Survey Research | July 18–21, 2023 | 1,336 (LV) | – | 43% | 36% | 21% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| | July 21, 2024 | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 13–18, 2023 | 1,375 (LV) | – | 37% | 29% | 17% | 17% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 50% | 37% | 13% |

### Results

2024 United States presidential election in Alaska :
| Party | Party | Candidate |
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Donald Trump JD Vance | 184,458 | 54.54% | +1.71% |
| | Democratic | Kamala Harris Tim Walz | 140,026 | 41.41% | -1.36% |
| | Independent | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) | 5,670 | 1.68% | N/A |
| | Libertarian | Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat | 3,040 | 0.90% | -2.38% |
| | Independent | Jill Stein Butch Ware | 2,342 | 0.69% | N/A |
| | Aurora | Cornel West Melina Abdullah | 1,127 | 0.33% | N/A |
| | Constitution | Randall Terry Stephen Broden | 812 | 0.24% | -0.07% |
| | American Solidarity | Peter Sonski Lauren Onak | 702 | 0.21% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 338,177 | 100.00% | |

#### Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Dillingham Census Area (largest city: Dillingham)
* Lake and Peninsula Borough (largest city: Port Alsworth)
* Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
* Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
* Democratic — +12.5-15%
* Democratic — +10-12.5%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
* Democratic  Hold  Flip Republican  Hold  Flip

### By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, an at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
| At-large | 54.54% | 41.41% | Mary Peltola |
| At-large | 54.54% | 41.41% | Nick Begich III |

## Analysis

Ever since Alaska started voting in presidential races in 1960, the only time its electoral votes did not go to the Republican nominee was when incumbent Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in a landslide in 1964. Alaska is the only Republican-leaning state on the West Coast. In 2020, Trump won Alaska, but by 10 percentage points, much less than Republicans in the past like George W. Bush's 26% victory in the state in 2004.
Trump improved in virtually all of the state, particularly areas in the north and west with large Alaska Native populations. Harris managed to narrowly retain Anchorage for the Democrats; Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without winning the city since Alaskan statehood. Key to Trump's victory in the state was landslide margins to his favor in the Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska-Susitna Valley. He even managed to obtain over 80% of the vote in the sparsely populated Southeast Fairbanks Census Area. Harris's best area was Juneau, the state capital. This is the first election since 2008 that Republicans carried a majority of boroughs and census areas. This is the first election since 1968 that Alaska voted to the left of Iowa.