# 2018 California's 10th congressional district election

"none" is preferred when the title is already sufficiently detailed; see [[WP:SDNONE]]
Elections in California :
Federal governmentU.S. President
1852
1856
1860
1864
1868
1872
1876
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
Dem
Rep
2000
Dem
Rep
2004
Dem
Rep
2008
Dem
Rep
2012
Dem
Rep
2016
Dem
Rep
2020
Dem
Rep
2024
Dem
Rep
U.S. Senate
1849
1850
1852 sp
1856
1857 sp
1860
1860 sp
1868
1872
1873
1873 sp
1878
1880
1885
1886 sp
1887
1891
1891 sp
1893
1895 sp
1897
1900 sp
1903
1905
1909
1911
1914
1916
1920
1922
1926
1928
1932
1934
1938
1940
1944
1946
1946 sp
1950
1952
1954 sp
1956
1958
1962
1964
1968
1970
1974
1976
1980
1982
1986
1988
1992
1992 sp
1994
1998
2000
2004
2006
2010
2012
2016
2018
2022
2022 sp
2024
2024 sp
2028
2030
U.S. House of Representatives
1849
1851
1852
1854
1856
1859
1861
1863
1864
1867
1868
1871
1872
1875
1876
1879
1880
1882
1884
1886
1888
1890
1892
1894
1896
1898
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
12th
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1987
5th sp
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2001
32nd sp
2002
2004
2005
5th sp
48th sp
2006
50th sp
2007
36th sp
2008
12th sp
2009
10th sp
32nd sp
2010
2011
36th sp
2012
2014
2016
2017
34th sp
2018
2020
25th sp
2022
22nd sp
2024
16th
20th sp
30th
45th
47th
2026 :
State governmentExecutive Governor
1849
1851
1853
1855
1857
1859
1861
1863
1867
1871
1875
1879
1882
1886
1890
1894
1898
1902
1906
1910
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2003 (recall)
2006
2010
2014
2018
2021 (recall)
2022
2026
Lieutenant governor
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
Attorney general
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
Secretary of state
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
Treasurer
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
Controller
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
Insurance commissioner
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
Superintendent
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
Board of equalization
2018
2022
Legislature Senate
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Special
Assembly
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2021 (79th sp)
2022 (17th sp)
2024
Special
Judiciary Court of appeals
1994
1998
2002
2006
Elections by year
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2005
2006
2008
Feb
Jun
Nov
2009
2010
Jun
Nov
2012
Jun
Nov
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024 :
State propositions1910–1919
1911
4
7
8
1960–1969
1964
14
1970–1979
1978
6
8
13
1980–1989
1982
8
1986
64
65
1988
98
99
1990–1999
1994
187
1996
196
209
215
218
1998
6
10
227
2000–2009
2000
21
22
36
39
2003
53
54
2004
1A
55
56
57
58
59
60
60A
61
62
63
64
65
66
69
71
2005
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
2006
81
82
83
85
87
89
90
2008
91
92
93
94, 95, 96, and 97
98 and 99
1A
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2009
1A
1B
1C
1D
1E
1F
2010–2019
2010
13
14
15
16
17
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
2012
29
30
32
34
37
38
39
2014
1
2
41
42
45
46
47
48
2016
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
2018
68
69
70
71
72
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2020–2029
2020
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2022
1
26
27
28
29
30
31
2024
1
2
3
4
5
6
32
33
34
35
36
Full list :
Los Angeles CountyLos Angeles County Board of supervisors
1980
1996
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Ballot measures
1980
A
2008
R
2012
B
J
2016
M
Elections
2020
2022
2024
Los Angeles Mayor
1896
1898
1900
1902
1904
1906
1909 (sp)
1909
1911
1913
1915
1917
1919
1921
1923
1925
1929
1933
1937
1938
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2022
2026
City attorney
2009
Ballot measures
1986
U
2017
S
Elections
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019 (sp)
2020
2022
2023 (sp)
2024
Long Beach Mayor
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022 :
Orange CountyOrange County Board of supervisors
2018
2020
2022
2024
District attorney
2018
Anaheim Mayor
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
Irvine Mayor
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Costa Mesa Municipal
1947
1953
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024 :
SacramentoMayor
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024 :
San Diego CountySan Diego County Board of supervisors
2020
San Diego Mayor
1887
1889
1891
1893
1895
1897
1899
1901
1903
1905
1907
1909
1911
1913
1915
1917
1919
1921
1923
1925
1927
1929
1931
1932
1935
1939
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983 (sp)
1984
1986 (sp)
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2005 (sp)
2008
2012
2013–14 (sp)
2016
2020
2024
2028
City attorney
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
City council
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Special :
San FranciscoMayor
1901
1903
1905
1907
1909
1911
1931
1935
1939
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983 (recall)
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2018 (sp)
2019
2024
District attorney
2019
2022 (recall)
2022 (sp)
2024
Board of supervisors
1977
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Board of education
2018
2022 (recall)
Ballot measures
2024
G
Elections
2004
Mar
Nov
2005
2006
Jun
Nov
2007
2008
Feb
Jun
Nov
2009
2010
Jun
Nov
2011
2012
Jun
Nov
2013
2022
Feb :
San JoseMayor
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2024 :
Other localities
Bakersfield
Mayoral elections:
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Fresno
Mayoral elections:
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Oakland
Mayoral elections:
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2024
2025
Riverside
Mayoral elections:
1997
2001
2005
2009
2012
2016
2020
2024
San Bernardino
Mayoral elections:
2005
2009
2014
2018
2022
Stockton
Mayoral elections:
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024 :
vte :
The 2018 California's 10th congressional district election was held November 6, 2018, to determine the U.S. congressional representative for California's 10th congressional district (CA-10). The district is based in the Central Valley and includes Modesto and Tracy. Republican Jeff Denham, who had represented the 10th district since 2013 and previously represented the 19th district from 2011 to 2013, ran for re-election. He faced six Democrats and one Republican in the primary election.
California's 10th district was included on the list of Republican-held seats being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in 2018. This race concerned the DCCC and other Democratic groups due to the possibility that two Republicans might advance to the general election because of California's jungle primary rules. However, Denham and Democratic candidate Josh Harder prevailed on June 5, 2018, advancing to the general election the following November.
In September 2018, both FiveThirtyEight and The Economist projected that Harder had at least a 63% chance of defeating Denham. Josh Harder won the general election held on November 6, though Jeff Denham led the reported vote count for several days. Denham conceded defeat on November 14.

## Primary election

By May 2017, there were three challengers who had announced their candidacies, including Josh Harder. Many Democratic candidates participated in debates that were held between September 2017 and January 2018. Following the January debate, the Indivisible chapter in Manteca published a poll suggesting that TJ Cox was the preferred candidate for the Democratic nomination, followed by Harder and Virginia Madueño (the former mayor of Riverbank). In a January 2018 caucus vote, Harder received 40% and Cox received 39% of the vote, resulting in no endorsement of either candidate. Shortly thereafter, Michael Eggman also entered the 2018 race. Eggman was Jeff Denham's general election opponent in the 2014 election and the 2016 election for the district.
Immediately prior to the March 2018 filing deadline, Cox withdrew from this race, and Republican Ted Howze entered. Cox withdrew from the CA-10 race in order to compete in the election in California's 21st congressional district (CA-21). CA-21 had no Democratic candidates prior to Cox's move, due to Emilio Huerta (the prior Democratic candidate) dropping out of the race. Republican Ted Howze also entered the race in March 2018.
The Modesto Bee wrote on May 12, 2018, "Jeff Denham is going to be hard to beat." By this point, the original field of Democratic candidates had been cut in half from ten. In addition to Harder, Eggman, and Madueño, they included Sue Zwahlen (a former ER nurse and school board member), and Michael Barkley (a lawyer, accountant, and computer programmer).
Denham received first place in the primary, with Harder receiving second place with 16.7% of the vote. On election night, it appeared that Harder would only narrowly defeat Republican Ted Howze with less than one thousand votes. However, the final returns put Harder ahead of Howze by over 3,000 votes.

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Denham (R) | Michael Eggman (D) | Josh Harder (D) | Virginia Madueño (D) | Sue Zwahlen (D) | Other |
| Benenson Strategy Group (D-Harder) | May 2–6, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 10% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 5% |

### Results

California's 10th district primary election, 2018 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Jeff Denham (incumbent) | 45,719 | 37.55% |
| | Democratic | Josh Harder | 20,742 | 17.04% |
| | Republican | Ted D. Howze | 17,723 | 14.56% |
| | Democratic | Michael Eggman | 12,446 | 10.22% |
| | Democratic | Virginia Madueño | 11,178 | 9.18% |
| | Democratic | Sue Zwahlen | 9,945 | 8.17% |
| | Democratic | Michael J. "Mike" Barkley | 2,904 | 2.39% |
| | Democratic | Dotty Nygard | 1,100 | 0.90% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 121,757 | 100% |

## General election

As a result of California's jungle primary system, only Jeff Denham and Josh Harder advanced to the general election ballot. In September 2018, both FiveThirtyEight and The Economist projected that Harder had at least a 63% chance of defeating Denham.

### Candidates
#### Jeff Denham

Denham was the Republican Party incumbent who ran for re-election in 2018. He originally won election to the U.S. House in 2010 by defeating Democrat Loraine Goodwin, representing California's 19th congressional district (succeeding prior Republican incumbent George Radanovich). He served there for one term before redistricting led him to win his return to Congress in the 10th district in 2012, which he represented since 2013.
Prior to serving in U.S. House of Representatives, Denham served in the California State Senate, representing California's 12th State Senate district from 2002 to 2010. Prior to seeking political office, Denham served on active and reserve status in the United States Air Force for 16 years, and served in both Operation Desert Storm in Iraq and Operation Restore Hope in Somalia.

#### Josh Harder

Harder was one of the first candidates to enter the primary race in May 2017, shortly after moving back to the district and assuming a teaching role at Modesto Junior College. Prior to 2017, Harder held an executive role at venture capital firm Bessemer Venture Partners.
Harder was born in Turlock, California, and graduated from Modesto High School. He earned political science and economics undergraduate degrees from Stanford University, as well as a joint MBA/MPP from Harvard Business School and Kennedy School of Government. Harder worked in the San Francisco Bay Area for Bessemer Venture Partners for three years and before moving back to Turlock. Harder taught business at Modesto Junior College.
During the 2018 general election campaign, Harder and his wife, Pamela, were married near her home town of Reston, Virginia.

### Endorsements
#### Josh Harder

* Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States
* Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence
* California Labor Federation
* California Teachers Association
* Council for a Livable World
* End Citizens United
* J Street
* League of Conservation Voters
* National Education Association
* Sierra Club

### Debates

* Complete video of debate, September 30, 2018

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Denham (R) | Josh Harder (D) | Undecided |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 21–25, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| UC Berkeley | September 16–23, 2018 | 726 | ± 5.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | June 27 – July 1, 2018 | 501 | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| ALG Research (D-Eggman) | March 13–15, 2018 | 400 | – | 48% | 37% | 15% |
with Eggman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Jeff Denham (R) | Michael Eggman (D) | Undecided |
| ALG Research (D-Eggman) | March 13–15, 2018 | 400 | 45% | 41% | 13% |
with generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Jeff Denham (R) | Generic Democrat (D) | Undecided |
| DCCC (D) | February 21–22, 2018 | 46% | 43% | — |
| PPP/Patriot Majority USA | December 11–12, 2017 | 41% | 49% | 10% |

## Results

On election night and for the first three days following the election, Jeff Denham held a lead in the reported results. On Friday, November 9, an update was published after tallying many of the absentee ballots that arrived in the days following the election, putting Harder in the lead. On November 13, AP News projected that Democrat Josh Harder would win the election, with Denham conceding the following day.
California's 10th district general election, 2018 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Josh Harder | 115,945 | 52.25% |
| | Republican | Jeff Denham (incumbent) | 105,955 | 47.75% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 221,900 | 100% |
| | Democratic gain from Republican | Democratic gain from Republican | Democratic gain from Republican | Democratic gain from Republican |

### Results by county

Results by county. Harder won both counties. Blue represents counties won by Harder.
| County | Denham (R) | Denham (R) | Harder (D) | Harder (D) | Total |
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| San Joaquin | 30,609 | 47.0% | 34,553 | 53.0% | 65,162 |
| Stanislaus | 75,346 | 48.1% | 81,392 | 51.9% | 156,738 |
| Totals | 105,955 | 47.7% | 115,945 | 52.3% | 221,900 |