# 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

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The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump from Florida, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence from Indiana against Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Trump easily won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.8%, a margin of 33.34%, about three points down from his 36-point victory in 2016. Joe Biden won the same two counties Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won in 1984, 2000 and 2016 respectively: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which have long been Democratic strongholds. However, Biden only came 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016.
Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 and the first without Benson, Ransom, or Steele Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Despite Biden's modest improvement over Hillary Clinton four years earlier, this is the third-worst Democratic performance in the state since 1980, and the 2024 election. Trump's vote share was also the largest for any candidate in the state since 1952.

## Caucuses
### Democratic caucuses

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.
All of the withdrawn candidates had withdrawn from the race while mail-in voting had already begun.
2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses :
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
| Bernie Sanders | 7,682 | 52.81 | 8 |
| Joe Biden | 5,742 | 39.47 | 6 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 366 | 2.52 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 223 | 1.53 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 164 | 1.13 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 113 | 0.78 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 89 | 0.61 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 20 | 0.14 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 6 | 0.04 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 3 | 0.02 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 3 | 0.02 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 2 | 0.01 | |
| Unsigned votes / Overvotes / Blank Votes | 133 | 0.91 | |
| Total | 14,546 | 100% | 14 |

### Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed.
The party then formally selected their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled.

### Libertarian nominee

* Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

## General election
### Final predictions

| Source | Ranking |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R |
| Inside Elections | Solid R |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R |
| Politico | Solid R |
| RCP | Solid R |
| Niskanen | Safe R |
| CNN | Solid R |
| The Economist | Safe R |
| CBS News | Likely R |
| 270towin | Safe R |
| ABC News | Solid R |
| NPR | Likely R |
| NBC News | Solid R |
| 538 | Solid R |

### Polling
#### Graphical summary

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic-NPL | Donald J. Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided | Margin |
| 270 to Win | September 26 – October 17, 2020 | October 19, 2020 | 38.0% | 57.5% | 4.5% | Trump +19.5 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 38.7% | 56.0% | 5.3% | Trump +17.3 |
| Average | Average | Average | 38.4% | 56.8% | 4.8% | Trump +18.4 |
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald J. Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic-NPL | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Other | Undecided |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 402 (LV) | ± 7% | 59% | 39% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 700 (LV) | – | 57% | 42% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 249 (LV) | – | 63% | 34% | – | – | 3% |
| DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First | Sep 26–29, 2020 | 460 (A) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 37% | – | 4% | 7% |
| DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First | Sep 12–16, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 56% | 37% | – | 3% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 269 (LV) | – | 66% | 32% | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 261 (LV) | – | 63% | 36% | – | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 88 (LV) | – | 71% | 28% | – | – | 1% |
| DFM Research | Mar 3–5, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 38% | – | 2% | 5% |
| DFM Research | Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 59% | 34% | – | 2% | 5% |
| 1892 Polling/Doug Burgum | Jul 15–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 60% | 34% | – | – | – |
| DFM Research | May 14–18, 2019 | 400 (A) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 39% | – | 2% | 5% |
Former candidates :
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald J. Trump (R) | Michael Bloomberg (D-NPL) | Other | Undecided |
| DFM Research | Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 59% | 32% | 1% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald J. Trump (R) | Pete Buttigieg (D-NPL) | Other | Undecided |
| DFM Research | Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 59% | 31% | 2% | 8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald J. Trump (R) | Amy Klobuchar (D-NPL) | Other | Undecided |
| DFM Research | Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 59% | 33% | 1% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald J. Trump (R) | Bernie Sanders (D-NPL) | Other | Undecided |
| DFM Research | Mar 3–5, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 33% | 4% | 4% |
| DFM Research | Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 61% | 32% | 1% | 5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald J. Trump (R) | Elizabeth Warren (D-NPL) | Other | Undecided |
| DFM Research | Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 31% | 2% | 6% |
| Zogby Analytics | Aug 17–23, 2017 | 403 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 36% | – | 17% |

### Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:
| Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party | Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic-NPL Party | Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
| Sandy J. Boehler Ray Holmberg Robert Wefald | Heidi Heitkamp Bernice Knutson Warren Larson | Dustin Gawrylow Martin J. Riske Dylan Stuckey |

### Results

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Donald J. Trump Michael R. Pence | 235,751 | 65.12% | +2.17% |
| | Democratic–NPL | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 115,042 | 31.78% | +4.53% |
| | Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 9,371 | 2.59% | −3.64% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 1,860 | 0.51% | −1.34% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 362,024 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

#### By county

| County | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic-NPL | Joe Biden Democratic-NPL | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Adams | 981 | 77.30% | 258 | 20.33% | 30 | 2.37% | 723 | 56.97% | 1,269 |
| Barnes | 3,568 | 64.12% | 1,820 | 32.70% | 177 | 3.18% | 1,748 | 31.42% | 5,565 |
| Benson | 1,094 | 55.79% | 822 | 41.92% | 45 | 2.29% | 272 | 13.87% | 1,961 |
| Billings | 541 | 85.20% | 72 | 11.34% | 22 | 3.46% | 469 | 73.86% | 635 |
| Bottineau | 2,575 | 74.19% | 821 | 23.65% | 75 | 2.16% | 1,754 | 50.54% | 3,471 |
| Bowman | 1,395 | 84.19% | 228 | 13.76% | 34 | 2.05% | 1,167 | 70.43% | 1,657 |
| Burke | 994 | 86.06% | 137 | 11.86% | 24 | 2.08% | 857 | 74.20% | 1,155 |
| Burleigh | 34,744 | 68.46% | 14,348 | 28.27% | 1,661 | 3.27% | 20,396 | 40.19% | 50,753 |
| Cass | 42,619 | 49.53% | 40,311 | 46.84% | 3,123 | 3.63% | 2,308 | 2.69% | 86,053 |
| Cavalier | 1,499 | 74.21% | 474 | 23.47% | 47 | 2.32% | 1,025 | 50.74% | 2,020 |
| Dickey | 1,742 | 71.86% | 608 | 25.08% | 74 | 3.06% | 1,134 | 46.78% | 2,424 |
| Divide | 904 | 75.21% | 265 | 22.05% | 33 | 2.74% | 639 | 53.16% | 1,202 |
| Dunn | 1,951 | 83.45% | 342 | 14.63% | 45 | 1.92% | 1,609 | 68.82% | 2,338 |
| Eddy | 854 | 67.72% | 383 | 30.37% | 24 | 1.91% | 471 | 37.35% | 1,261 |
| Emmons | 1,738 | 86.51% | 237 | 11.80% | 34 | 1.69% | 1,501 | 74.71% | 2,009 |
| Foster | 1,362 | 76.60% | 373 | 20.98% | 43 | 2.42% | 989 | 55.62% | 1,778 |
| Golden Valley | 871 | 84.89% | 137 | 13.35% | 18 | 1.76% | 634 | 71.54% | 1,026 |
| Grand Forks | 16,987 | 54.85% | 12,880 | 41.59% | 1,103 | 3.56% | 4,107 | 13.26% | 30,970 |
| Grant | 1,145 | 82.91% | 207 | 14.99% | 29 | 2.10% | 938 | 67.92% | 1,381 |
| Griggs | 907 | 72.56% | 308 | 24.64% | 35 | 2.80% | 599 | 47.92% | 1,250 |
| Hettinger | 1,091 | 83.16% | 196 | 14.94% | 25 | 1.90% | 895 | 68.22% | 1,312 |
| Kidder | 1,215 | 83.22% | 221 | 15.14% | 24 | 1.64% | 994 | 68.08% | 1,460 |
| LaMoure | 1,645 | 74.13% | 527 | 23.75% | 47 | 2.12% | 1,118 | 50.38% | 2,219 |
| Logan | 930 | 86.43% | 128 | 11.90% | 18 | 1.67% | 802 | 74.53% | 1,076 |
| McHenry | 2,364 | 78.72% | 564 | 18.78% | 75 | 2.50% | 1,800 | 59.94% | 3,003 |
| McIntosh | 1,153 | 79.24% | 261 | 17.94% | 41 | 2.82% | 892 | 61.30% | 1,455 |
| McKenzie | 4,482 | 82.71% | 814 | 15.02% | 123 | 2.27% | 3,668 | 67.69% | 5,419 |
| McLean | 4,198 | 75.83% | 1,230 | 22.22% | 108 | 1.95% | 2,968 | 53.61% | 5,536 |
| Mercer | 3,856 | 82.48% | 704 | 15.06% | 115 | 2.46% | 3,152 | 67.42% | 4,675 |
| Morton | 12,243 | 73.67% | 3,872 | 23.30% | 504 | 3.03% | 8,371 | 50.37% | 16,619 |
| Mountrail | 2,824 | 67.80% | 1,256 | 30.16% | 85 | 2.04% | 1,568 | 37.64% | 4,165 |
| Nelson | 1,141 | 64.21% | 586 | 32.98% | 50 | 2.81% | 555 | 31.23% | 1,777 |
| Oliver | 918 | 86.12% | 129 | 12.10% | 19 | 1.78% | 789 | 74.02% | 1,066 |
| Pembina | 2,460 | 73.85% | 786 | 23.60% | 85 | 2.55% | 1,674 | 50.25% | 3,331 |
| Pierce | 1,585 | 74.48% | 497 | 23.36% | 46 | 2.16% | 1,088 | 51.12% | 2,128 |
| Ramsey | 3,577 | 66.59% | 1,639 | 30.51% | 156 | 2.90% | 1,938 | 36.08% | 5,372 |
| Ransom | 1,418 | 57.78% | 945 | 38.51% | 91 | 3.71% | 473 | 19.27% | 2,454 |
| Renville | 1,065 | 80.74% | 220 | 16.68% | 34 | 2.58% | 845 | 64.06% | 1,319 |
| Richland | 5,072 | 64.93% | 2,510 | 32.13% | 230 | 2.94% | 2,562 | 32.80% | 7,812 |
| Rolette | 1,257 | 33.04% | 2,482 | 65.25% | 65 | 1.71% | -1,225 | -32.21% | 3,804 |
| Sargent | 1,266 | 61.16% | 738 | 35.65% | 66 | 3.19% | 528 | 25.51% | 2,070 |
| Sheridan | 688 | 84.73% | 104 | 12.81% | 20 | 2.46% | 584 | 71.92% | 812 |
| Sioux | 258 | 21.75% | 804 | 67.79% | 124 | 10.46% | -546 | -46.04% | 1,186 |
| Slope | 380 | 88.99% | 44 | 10.30% | 3 | 0.71% | 336 | 78.69% | 427 |
| Stark | 12,110 | 80.47% | 2,499 | 16.60% | 441 | 2.93% | 9,611 | 63.87% | 15,050 |
| Steele | 652 | 59.93% | 392 | 36.03% | 44 | 4.04% | 260 | 23.90% | 1,088 |
| Stutsman | 6,994 | 70.23% | 2,676 | 26.87% | 289 | 2.90% | 4,318 | 43.36% | 9,959 |
| Towner | 830 | 70.70% | 317 | 27.00% | 27 | 2.30% | 513 | 43.70% | 1,174 |
| Traill | 2,522 | 60.98% | 1,493 | 36.10% | 121 | 2.92% | 1,029 | 24.88% | 4,136 |
| Walsh | 3,324 | 69.50% | 1,333 | 27.87% | 126 | 2.63% | 1,991 | 41.63% | 4,783 |
| Ward | 19,974 | 70.71% | 7,293 | 25.82% | 979 | 3.47% | 12,681 | 44.89% | 28,246 |
| Wells | 1,893 | 79.74% | 442 | 18.62% | 39 | 1.64% | 1,451 | 61.12% | 2,374 |
| Williams | 11,739 | 81.90% | 2,169 | 15.13% | 426 | 2.97% | 9,570 | 66.77% | 14,334 |
| Totals | 235,595 | 65.11% | 114,902 | 31.76% | 11,322 | 3.13% | 120,693 | 33.35% | 361,819 |
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%

#### By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is an at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
| At-large | 65.11% | 31.76% | Kelly Armstrong |

## Analysis

North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It last voted for a Democrat in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. Since 1964, North Dakota has been competitive in only three elections: 1976, 1996, and 2008.
A few prime reasons why this state votes heavily for Republicans include its older, majority-White populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as the oil boom increasingly fuels the economy of North Dakota. The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties—perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration.