# 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election

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The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. Governor Laura Kelly won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt in the general election by a margin of roughly 2.2 percentage points.
This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2022 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election, and the race was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the nation. Some analysts and Kansas Republican Party officials had also predicted that Dennis Pyle, who was on the ballot as an independent, would have a spoiler effect benefiting Kelly. This was the first gubernatorial election in Kansas since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominated

* Laura Kelly, incumbent governor (2019–present)
** Running mate: David Toland, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present) and Secretary of Commerce (2019–present)

#### Eliminated in primary

* Richard Karnowski, accountant
** Running mate: Barry Franco
State officials
* Sandy Praeger, former Kansas Insurance Commissioner (Republican)
* Gary Sherrer, former lieutenant governor of Kansas (Republican)
State legislators
* Audrey Langworthy, former state senator (Republican)
* Steve Morris, former president of the Kansas Senate (Republican)
* Lana Oleen, former state senator (Republican)
* Charles Roth, state representative (Republican)
* Sheryl Spalding, former state representative (Republican)
Organization
* EMILY's List
* Feminist Majority PAC

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Laura Kelly (incumbent)David Toland (incumbent) | 270,968 | 93.84 |
| | Democratic | Richard KarnowskiBarry Franco | 17,802 | 6.16 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 288,770 | 100 |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominated

* Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General (2011–2023)
** Running mate: Katie Sawyer, political staffer

#### Eliminated in primary

* Arlyn Briggs, perennial candidate
** Running mate: Lance Berland, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020

#### Withdrew

* Jeff Colyer, former governor (2018–2019) and former lieutenant governor (2011–2018) (endorsed Schmidt)
* Chase LaPorte, businessman

#### Declined

* Wink Hartman, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2018
* Kris Kobach, former Kansas Secretary of State (2011–2019), nominee for governor in 2018, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020 (running for Kansas Attorney General)
* Jerry Moran, U.S. senator (2011–present) (running for re-election)
* Ron Ryckman Jr., Speaker of the Kansas House of Representatives (2017–2023) from the 78th District (2013–2023) (endorsed Schmidt)

### Endorsements

U.S. Executive Branch officials
* Mike Pompeo, former United States Secretary of State (2018–2021), former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018), and former U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. senators
* Bob Dole, former U.S. senator from Kansas (1969–1996), former Senate Majority Leader (1985–1987, 1995–1996) and Republican nominee for president in 1996 and Vice President in 1976 (Deceased)
* Roger Marshall, U.S. senator from Kansas (2021–present) (previously endorsed Colyer)
* Pat Roberts, former U.S. senator from Kansas (1997–2021)
U.S. representatives
* Ron Estes, U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2017–present)
* Jake LaTurner, U.S. representative for Kansas's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)
* Tracey Mann, U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district (2021–present) and former lieutenant governor of Kansas (2018–2019)
State officials
* Jeff Colyer, former governor of Kansas (2018–2019) and former lieutenant governor (2011–2018)
* Mike Parson, Governor of Missouri (2018–present)
* Ron Ryckman Jr., Speaker of the Kansas House of Representatives (2017–present) from the 78th district (2013–present)
Organizations
* American Conservative Union
* Americans for Prosperity-Kansas
* Kansas Farm Bureau PAC
* Kansas Republican Party
* NRA Political Victory Fund
U.S. representative
* Tracey Mann, U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district (2021–present) and former lieutenant governor of Kansas (2018–2019) (endorsed Schmidt after Colyer's withdrawal)

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Colyer | Ron Ryckman Jr. | Derek Schmidt | Undecided |
| Cygnal (R) | March 3–4, 2021 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 19% | 5% | 28% | 49% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Derek SchmidtKatie Sawyer | 373,524 | 80.60 |
| | Republican | Arlyn BriggsLance Berland | 89,898 | 19.40 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 463,422 | 100.00 |

## Independent
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Dennis Pyle, state senator from the 1st district, former Republican (2005–2025)
** Kathleen Garrison, Clearwater school board member

## General election
### Campaign

Reporters noted the lack of attention towards abortion as an issue in the campaign by both major candidates, despite the defeat of an abortion amendment in August which was widely seen as a prominent victory for the pro-choice movement. In televised debates, Schmidt said that he respected the referendum results and accused Kelly of opposing existing abortion restrictions. Kelly denied the accusation, saying that she had stayed consistent on the subject, and further adding that she believed in "bodily autonomy" for women. When pressed on whether they would support retaining all justices in the state Supreme Court who ruled abortion as a fundamental constitutional right in 2019 and were up on the ballot, Kelly said that she would, while Schmidt said he would vote to retain some and not others.
Instead, both candidates focused more on "kitchen-table" issues such as the economy and education, where polls showed that the former of which was the most important concern among voters. Kelly's campaign tied Schmidt with former governor Sam Brownback and his Kansas experiment, highlighting Schmidt's defense of lawsuits regarding budget cuts to public education as the attorney general. In the contrary, Schmidt's campaign tied Kelly with President Joe Biden by focusing on national issues such as the increase in inflation and gas prices, portraying them as "big-spending liberals". Other issues include criminal justice and transgender people in sports.
Aside from state Supreme Court justice retention elections and other statewide elections, the election was also held on the same ballot as two referendums for proposed constitutional amendments. Question 1 would authorize the state legislature to veto any rules and regulations implemented by Kansas's executive branch with a simple majority. The proposal was spearheaded by Schmidt in 2021 in response to Governor Kelly's pandemic-related measures to close schools temporarily and he made COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates as a focal point in his platform. Kelly's campaign countered that the amendment would be a "power grab" that could create further gridlock in the state's legislative process. Question 2 would require most sheriffs to be elected directly by voters and that they could only be removed by a recall election or a challenge by the state attorney general. In a press release, Schmidt said that he would campaign for the amendment, arguing that electing sheriffs would make them "uniquely accountable to the people". Critics pointed out that the amendment could create abuse of power as the authority to investigate the sheriff would be stripped from district attorneys in every county and the attorney general could "play favorites" into which sheriff to investigate. In the end, Question 1 failed narrowly by a one-point margin, while Question 2 passed with 62% of the vote.

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | July 26, 2022 |
| Inside Elections | Tossup | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
| Politico | Tossup | August 12, 2022 |
| RCP | Tossup | August 3, 2022 |
| Fox News | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| 538 | Lean D | September 13, 2022 |
| Elections Daily | Lean D | November 7, 2022 |

### Post-primary endorsements

Federal officials
* Sheila Frahm, former United States Senator for Kansas (1996) (Republican)
* Nancy Kassebaum, former United States Senator for Kansas (1978–1997) (Republican)
* Stephen McAllister, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (2018–2021), former Solicitor General of Kansas (2007–2018) (Republican)
State officials
* John W. Carlin, former governor of Kansas (1979–1987), former Archivist of the United States (1995-2005)
* Bill Graves, former governor of Kansas (1995–2003) (Republican)
* Mike Hayden, former governor of Kansas (1987–1991) (Republican)
* Kathleen Sebelius, former governor of Kansas (2003–2009), former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (2009-2014)
* Robert Stephan, former attorney general of Kansas (1979-1995) (Republican)
* Carla Stovall, former attorney general of Kansas (1995–2003) (Republican)
State legislators
* Jan Kessinger, former state representative (2017–2021) (Republican)
Organizations
* End Citizens United
* Equality Kansas
* Kansas AFL–CIO
* Let America Vote
* National Education Association
* National Women's Political Caucus
* United Auto Workers
Newspapers
* The Wichita Eagle
U.S. Executive Branch officials
* Mike Pence, former vice president of the United States (2017–2021), and former governor of Indiana (2013–2017)
Federal legislators
* Jerry Moran, U.S. senator from Kansas (2011–present)
State officials
* Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey (2010–2018)
* Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present)
* Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Laura Kelly (D) | Derek Schmidt (R) | Other | Margin |
| FiveThirtyEight | August 10 – October 29, 2022 | November 2, 2022 | 48.6% | 43.5% | 7.9% | Kelly +5.1 |
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Laura Kelly (D) | Derek Schmidt (R) | Dennis Pyle (I) | Other | Undecided |
| Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | 5% | 2% | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 44% | 5% | 2% | – |
| Jayhawk Consulting (D) | October 10–12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 38% | 37% | 7% | – | 18% |
| Emerson College | September 15–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 392 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 53% | 41% | – | – | 5% |
| Battleground Connect (R) | August 8–10, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 2% | – | 5% |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | April 26–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | – | – | 10% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D) | September 13–15, 2021 | 810 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | September 7–9, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | – | – | 16% |

### Debates and forums

2022 Kansas gubernatorial debates and forums :
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Location | Link | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian | Independent |
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | | | | |
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn | Derek Schmidt | Laura Kelly | Seth Cordell | Dennis Pyle |
| 1 | September 7, 2022 | Kansas Chamber of Commerce | – | Olathe | | P | P | N | N |
| 2 | September 10, 2022 | WIBW-FM | Greg Akagi | Hutchinson | Youtube | P | P | N | N |
| 3 | October 5, 2022 | Kansas City PBS/ Johnson County Bar Association | Nick Haines | Overland Park | Youtube | P | P | N | N |

### Results

* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
2022 Kansas gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Laura Kelly (incumbent)David Toland (incumbent) | 499,849 | 49.54% | +1.53% |
| | Republican | Derek SchmidtKatie Sawyer | 477,591 | 47.33% | +4.35% |
| | Independent | Dennis PyleKathleen Garrison | 20,452 | 2.03% | N/A |
| | Libertarian | Seth CordellEvan Laudick-Gains | 11,106 | 1.10% | −0.80% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,008,998 | 100.0% | |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | | 47.94% | |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Crawford (largest city: Pittsburg)
* Harvey (largest city: Newton)

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Geary (largest city: Junction City)

#### By congressional district

Kelly won 2 of 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.
| District | Kelly | Schmidt | Other | Representative |
| 1st | 44.09% | 52.20% | 3.71% | Tracey Mann |
| 2nd | 48.58% | 47.91% | 3.51% | Jake LaTurner |
| 3rd | 57.28% | 40.46% | 2.26% | Sharice Davids |
| 4th | 46.10% | 50.64% | 3.26% | Ron Estes |

## Analysis

Laura Kelly won the election by a margin of 2.2 percentage points over Derek Schmidt, similar to the percentage of votes that independent Dennis Pyle received. Kansas Republican Party Chair Mike Kuckelman pointed to this as evidence that Pyle was somewhat responsible for Schmidt's defeat. However, Pyle insisted that "Kansas needed a strong conservative candidate" and instead highlighted Schmidt's underperformance compared to other Republican candidates in Kansas. This was the first election since 2002 where the winner of the United States Senate election in Kansas was of a different party from the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.
Kelly's personal popularity was also a factor in her victory, where a majority of voters approved of Kelly's job performance, while only a third did so for President Joe Biden. Her win was also propelled by Democratic candidates' increased strength in suburban areas, such as Johnson County, in spite of Schmidt's increased vote share from 2018 in the Republican strongholds of rural Kansas. Kelly also won Sedgwick County, home of Wichita, by 2.9%, receiving 1.8% more of the vote than in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election. According to a survey conducted by NORC and published by Fox News, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Schmidt's defeat.

### Exit polls

According to Fox News's voter analysis of the 2022 race, Kelly won women voters (51% Kelly, 45% Schmidt), voters 18-29 (51% Kelly, 43% Schmidt), millennials (55%, 39%), Gen X (50%, 47%), college-educated voters (57%, 40%), and Latino/Hispanic voters (58%).
Kelly lost voters who were concerned about inflation by four points (46%). She lost voters who listed groceries and food as their most important inflation concern by one point. 69% of voters listed abortion as an important factor in their vote, and Kelly won this group by 24 points (60%, 36%), closely mirroring the results of the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum. She won voters who listed "the future of democracy in this country" as an important factor in their vote (88% of voters) by seven points (52%).