# 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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vte :
The 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Republican former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig sought their first term in office. Ayotte won the election, and succeeded incumbent Republican Chris Sununu, who did not seek election to a fifth term. Along with neighboring Vermont, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.
Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024. Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate president Chuck Morse and Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilor Cinde Warmington.
Republican Kelly Ayotte won the election by 9.34%, with the state concurrently voting for Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire. The election was the closest gubernatorial race for a U.S. state in the 2024 cycle.

## Background

New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning state in New England, with a pattern of split-ticket voting. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu was narrowly elected in 2016 and easily won re-election in 2020. This was despite Donald Trump losing the state in both 2016 (by 0.37%) and 2020 (by 7.35%). Republican gubernatorial nominee Kelly Ayotte narrowly lost re-election in the 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire by 0.14%.
This race was widely considered a tossup, due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent 2024 presidential election.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. senator (2011–2017)

#### Eliminated in primary

* Shaun Fife, farmer
* Robert McClory, welder
* Richard McMenamon, auto repair shop owner and candidate for governor in 2022
* Chuck Morse, former president of the New Hampshire Senate, former acting governor, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022
* Frank Staples, transitional living program owner

#### Declined

* Jeb Bradley, president of the New Hampshire Senate and former U.S. representative for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district
* Scott Brown, former U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020), former U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013), and nominee for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire in 2014
* Frank Edelblut, commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education, former state representative, and candidate for governor in 2016
* Chris Sununu, incumbent governor (endorsed Ayotte)

### Endorsements

U.S. senators
* Judd Gregg, former U.S. senator from New Hampshire (1993–2011)
Governors
* Chris Sununu, Governor of New Hampshire (2017–2025)
State legislators
* Bill Gannon, state senator from the 23rd district (2016–2018, 2020–present)
* 20 state representatives
Individuals
* Don Bolduc, retired U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022
* Rico Petrocelli, Major League Baseball player for the Boston Red Sox

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kelly Ayotte (R) | $7,301,915 | $5,499,318 | $1,677,858 |
| Chuck Morse (R) | $1,513,599 | $1,472,846 | $40,753 |
| Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System ||||

### Debates

| Date | Host | Ayotte | Morse | Link |
| August 26, 2024 | N.H. Institute of Politics | Participant | Participant | YouTube |
| September 3, 2024 | WMUR-TV | Participant | Participant | YouTube |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kelly Ayotte | Chuck Morse | Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 915 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 65% | 21% | 13% |
| Saint Anselm College | August 13–14, 2024 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Emerson College | July 26–28, 2024 | 421 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Praecones Analytica | May 15–20, 2024 | 420 (RV) | ± 6.42% | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| UMass Lowell | January 6–16, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.65% | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kelly Ayotte | Robert Burns | Frank Edelblut | Chuck Morse | Other | Undecided |
| Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 498 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 35% |
| co/efficient | June 14–16, 2023 | 904 (LV) | ± 3.25% | 69% | – | 9% | 22% | – | – |

### Results

Ayotte secured a major victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best in Sullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result in Rockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote.
Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Kelly Ayotte | 88,117 | 63.12% |
| | Republican | Chuck Morse | 47,567 | 34.07% |
| | Republican | Shaun Fife | 876 | 0.63% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 867 | 0.62% |
| | Republican | Robert McClory | 839 | 0.60% |
| | Republican | Frank Staples | 809 | 0.58% |
| | Republican | Richard McMenamon | 527 | 0.38% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 139,602 | 100.00% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Joyce Craig, former mayor of Manchester

#### Eliminated in primary

* Jon Kiper, former Newmarket town councilor
* Cinde Warmington, New Hampshire Executive Councilor

#### Declined

* Annie Kuster, U.S. representative for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district
* Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth and candidate for governor in 2016 and 2018
* Chris Pappas, U.S. representative for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district (ran for re-election)
* Tom Sherman, former state senator and nominee for governor in 2022

### Endorsements

Governors
* John Lynch, former governor of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
* Maura Healey, governor of Massachusetts (2023–present)
U.S. representatives
* Chester Atkins, former U.S. representative from MA-5 (1985–1993)
New Hampshire cabinet officials
* Virginia Barry, former Commissioner of Education (2009–2017)
* James Craig, former Commissioner of Labor (2013–2017) and former state representative (1998–2006, 2008–2010)
* Colin Van Ostern, former New Hampshire Executive Councilor from the 2nd district (2013–2017)
* Ned Helms, former Commissioner of Health and Human Services (1979–1982)
Judicial officials
* John Broderick Jr., former New Hampshire Supreme Court Chief Justice (2004–2010)
* Arthur Gajarsa, former U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit judge (1997–2011)
State legislators
* 10 current and former state senators
* 69 current and former New Hampshire state representatives
Local officials
* Kevin Cavanaugh, Manchester alderman from the 1st ward (2015–present) and former state senator from the 16th district (2017–2022)
* Jim Donchess, Mayor of Nashua (2016–present)
Party officials
* Kathy Sullivan, former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party
Other officials
* Paul LeBlanc, Southern New Hampshire University president (2004–present)
* Susan Lynch, former First Lady of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
Labor unions
* American Federation of Teachers Local 1044
* International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 490
* International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 633
* New Hampshire Building and Construction Trades Council
Governors
* Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont (1991–2003)
U.S. representatives
* Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. representative from NH-01 (2007–2011, 2013–2015, 2017–2019)
State officials
* Dudley Dudley, former New Hampshire Executive Councilor from the 3rd district (1977–1985)
State legislators
* Donovan Fenton, state senator from the 10th district (2022–present)
* Terie Norelli, former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives (2006–2010, 2012–2014) from HD-R26 (1996–2014)
* Suzanne Prentiss, state senator from the 5th district (2020–present)
* Steve Shurtleff, former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives (2018–2020) from HD-M11 (2004–present)
* Becky Whitley, state senator from the 15th district (2020–present)
Local officials
* Jim Bouley, mayor of Concord (2008–2024)
* Andrew Hosmer, mayor of Laconia (2020–present)
Labor unions
* SEA/SEIU LOCAL 1984

#### Debates

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary debate :
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | | | |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Craig | Warmington | Kiper |
| 1 | Sep. 4, 2024 | WMUR-TV | Adam Sexton | YouTube | P | P | P |

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Joyce Craig (D) | $2,976,496 | $2,630,738 | $342,052 |
| Cinde Warmington (D) | $2,287,849 | $2,135,285 | $152,564 |
| Jon Kiper (D) | $58,277 | $55,985 | $1,443 |
| Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System ||||

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joyce Craig | Cinde Warmington | Other | Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 809 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 30% | 8% | 23% |
| Saint Anselm College | August 13–14, 2024 | 670 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 28% | 3% | 31% |
| Emerson College | July 26–28, 2024 | 433 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 33% | 21% | – | 44% |
| GBAO | February 22–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 25% | – | 39% |
| Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 30% | 15% | 2% | 52% |

### Results

* 30-40% 40–50%
* 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
* 30-40% 40–50%
* 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
* 40–50%
* 40–50% No Votes
Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Joyce Craig | 59,976 | 47.88% |
| | Democratic | Cinde Warmington | 52,420 | 41.85% |
| | Democratic | Jon Kiper | 11,789 | 9.41% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 1,076 | 0.86% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 125,261 | 100.00% |

## Third parties and independent candidates
### Declared

* Stephen Villee (Libertarian), software developer

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | October 15, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Tossup | September 26, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
| RCP | Tossup | October 1, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Tilt R | November 1, 2024 |

### Post-primary endorsements

Organizations
* Democratic Governors Association
* EMILY's List
* Planned Parenthood New Hampshire Action Fund

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kelly Ayotte (R) | $21,005,579 | $18,668,848 | $2,204,119 |
| Joyce Craig (D) | $7,346,371 | $6,827,299 | $515,368 |
| Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System ||||

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Kelly Ayotte (R) | Joyce Craig (D) | Undecided | Margin |
| RealClearPolitics | October 21 – November 2, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 46.8% | 44.3% | 8.9% | Ayotte +2.5% |
| 270toWin | October 24 – November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 47.0% | 44.0% | 9.0% | Ayotte +3.0% |
| Average | Average | Average | 46.9% | 44.2% | 8.9% | Ayotte +2.7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kelly Ayotte (R) | Joyce Craig (D) | Others | Undecided |
| Dartmouth College | November 1–3, 2024 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 58% | 2% | – |
| University of New Hampshire | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 2,814 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 48% | 44% | 1% | 6% |
| Saint Anselm College | October 28–29, 2024 | 2,791 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 49% | 46% | 2% | 3% |
| Praecones Analytica | October 24–26, 2024 | 622 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
| Emerson College | October 21–23, 2024 | 915 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 46% | 5% | – |
| Emerson College | October 21–23, 2024 | 915 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 43% | 4% | 7% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 10–23, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 4% | 8% |
| Dartmouth College | October 5–18, 2024 | 2,196 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 46% | 51% | 3% | – |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 2–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 42% | 41% | 4% | 14% |
| Saint Anselm College | October 1–2, 2024 | 2,104 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
| University of New Hampshire | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,695 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 46% | 47% | 1% | 5% |
| Saint Anselm College | September 11–12, 2024 | 2,241 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 46% | 43% | 5% | 6% |
| | September 10, 2024 | Primary elections held | Primary elections held | Primary elections held | Primary elections held | Primary elections held | Primary elections held |
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 40% | — | 17% |
| Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | — | 17% |
Kelly Ayotte vs. Cinde Warmington
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kelly Ayotte (R) | Cinde Warmington (D) | Undecided |
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 19% |
| Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 34% | 19% |

### Results

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Kelly Ayotte | 436,122 | 53.61% | −3.37% |
| | Democratic | Joyce Craig | 360,149 | 44.27% | +2.80% |
| | Libertarian | Stephen Villee | 16,202 | 1.99% | N/A |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 1,024 | 0.13% | -0.15% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 813,497 | 100.00% | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 832,518 | | |
| Registered electors | Registered electors | Registered electors | | | |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

### Results by county
#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Strafford (largest city: Dover)

#### By congressional district

Ayotte won both congressional districts, which both elected Democrats.
| District | Ayotte | Craig | Representative |
| 1st | 54% | 44% | Chris Pappas |
| 2nd | 53% | 45% | Annie Kuster (118th Congress) |
| 2nd | 53% | 45% | Maggie Goodlander (119th Congress) |