# 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico

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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
Before President Joe Biden withdrew, it was considered a battleground state by some. However, after incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, she was favored to keep New Mexico in the blue column.
Although Harris won New Mexico, her 6-point margin of victory was the worst for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state since John Kerry, who narrowly lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004. This is the second consecutive election where the state voted to the right of neighboring Colorado, after doing so for the first time since 1968 the previous cycle. This was also the second time in its history that it did not vote for the winner of the national popular vote, after 1976, and the first time ever that it voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote. This was also the first time since statehood that a candidate won two terms to the presidency without ever carrying the state.

## Primary elections
### Democratic primary

The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
New Mexico Democratic primary, June 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total |
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 111,049 | 83.5% | 34 | | 34 |
| Uncommitted | 12,938 | 9.7% | | | |
| Marianne Williamson | 8,935 | 6.7% | | | |
| Total: | 132,922 | 100.0% | 34 | 11 | 45 |

### Republican primary

The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
New Mexico Republican primary, June 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 78,999 | 84.5% | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 8,054 | 8.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 3,130 | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,428 | 2.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 886 | 0.9% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 93,497 | 100.00% | 22 | 0 | 22 |

### Libertarian primary

The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.
New Mexico Libertarian primary, June 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
| Lars Mapstead | 432 | 56.5% |
| None of the Above | 332 | 43.5% |
| Total: | 764 | 100.0% |
| Source: |||

## General election
### Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in New Mexico:
* Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
* Donald Trump, Republican Party
* Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
* Jill Stein, Green Party
* Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation
* Laura Ebke, Liberal Party USA
* Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Cook Political Report | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Very Likely D | November 1, 2024 |
| CNN | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist | Likely D | August 20, 2024 |
| 538 | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News | Likely D | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov | Safe D | October 16, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Likely D | November 1, 2024 |

### Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| Victory Insights | November 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 49.6% | 44.7% | 5.7% |
| SurveyUSA | October 28–31, 2024 | 632 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | October 24–26, 2024 | 749 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | September 19−22, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| SurveyUSA | September 12–18, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| | September 10, 2024 | The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC |
| | August 23, 2024 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. |
| | August 22, 2024 | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes |
| Emerson College | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| Emerson College | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 46% | – |
| | August 19, 2024 | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12–14, 2024 | 382 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| Emerson College | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 6% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| Research & Polling Inc. | October 10–18, 2024 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 41% | 3% | 6% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | September 6–13, 2024 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 39% | 3% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| 1892 Polling (R) | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver vs. Randall Terry
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Randall Terry Constitution | Other / Undecided |
| 1892 Polling (R) | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Ron DeSantis Republican | Other / Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |

### Results

2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Kamala HarrisTim Walz | 478,802 | 51.85 | −2.44 |
| | Republican | Donald TrumpJD Vance | 423,391 | 45.85 | +2.35 |
| | Independent | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn)Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) | 9,553 | 1.04 | N/A |
| | Green | Jill SteinButch Ware | 4,611 | 0.50 | +0.02 |
| | Free New Mexico | Chase OliverMike ter Maat | 3,745 | 0.41 | −0.95 |
| | Socialism and Liberation | Claudia De la CruzKarina Garcia | 2,442 | 0.26 | +0.08 |
| | Liberal | Laura EbkeTricia Butler | 859 | 0.09% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 923,403 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Democratic win | Democratic win | Democratic win | Democratic win | Democratic win |

#### By county

| County | Kamala Harris Democratic | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Bernalillo | 184,117 | 59.23% | 118,762 | 38.21% | 7,965 | 2.56% | 65,355 | 21.02% | 310,844 |
| Catron | 571 | 24.23% | 1,752 | 74.33% | 34 | 1.44% | -1,181 | -50.10% | 2,357 |
| Chaves | 5,941 | 26.76% | 15,894 | 71.59% | 365 | 1.65% | -9,953 | -44.83% | 22,200 |
| Cibola | 4,450 | 49.57% | 4,311 | 48.02% | 216 | 2.41% | 139 | 1.55% | 8,977 |
| Colfax | 2,436 | 41.91% | 3,252 | 55.94% | 125 | 2.15% | -816 | -14.03% | 5,813 |
| Curry | 4,230 | 27.79% | 10,714 | 70.38% | 279 | 1.83% | -6,484 | -42.59% | 15,223 |
| De Baca | 206 | 23.57% | 649 | 74.26% | 19 | 2.17% | -443 | -50.69% | 874 |
| Doña Ana | 45,937 | 53.79% | 37,594 | 44.02% | 1,876 | 2.19% | 8,343 | 9.77% | 85,407 |
| Eddy | 5,032 | 21.44% | 18,141 | 77.29% | 299 | 1.27% | -13,109 | -55.85% | 23,472 |
| Grant | 7,301 | 51.33% | 6,580 | 46.26% | 343 | 2.41% | 721 | 5.07% | 14,224 |
| Guadalupe | 959 | 49.48% | 945 | 48.76% | 34 | 1.76% | 14 | 0.72% | 1,938 |
| Harding | 128 | 29.70% | 297 | 68.91% | 6 | 1.39% | -169 | -39.21% | 431 |
| Hidalgo | 705 | 37.86% | 1,140 | 61.22% | 17 | 0.92% | -435 | -23.36% | 1,862 |
| Lea | 3,930 | 18.53% | 16,997 | 80.14% | 282 | 1.33% | -13,067 | -61.61% | 21,209 |
| Lincoln | 3,033 | 29.84% | 6,942 | 68.29% | 190 | 1.87% | -3,909 | -38.45% | 10,165 |
| Los Alamos | 7,726 | 63.40% | 4,047 | 33.21% | 414 | 3.39% | 3,679 | 30.19% | 12,187 |
| Luna | 3,176 | 39.42% | 4,698 | 58.32% | 182 | 2.26% | -1,522 | -18.90% | 8,056 |
| McKinley | 15,711 | 60.74% | 9,364 | 36.20% | 792 | 3.06% | 6,347 | 24.54% | 25,867 |
| Mora | 1,439 | 57.86% | 1,010 | 40.61% | 38 | 1.53% | 429 | 17.25% | 2,487 |
| Otero | 8,582 | 35.40% | 15,117 | 62.36% | 543 | 2.24% | -6,535 | -26.96% | 24,242 |
| Quay | 1,055 | 28.48% | 2,570 | 69.38% | 79 | 2.14% | -1,515 | -40.90% | 3,704 |
| Rio Arriba | 9,373 | 58.62% | 6,268 | 39.20% | 348 | 2.18% | 3,105 | 19.42% | 15,989 |
| Roosevelt | 1,820 | 27.41% | 4,687 | 70.60% | 132 | 1.99% | -2,867 | -43.19% | 6,639 |
| San Juan | 17,464 | 33.00% | 34,264 | 64.74% | 1,198 | 2.26% | -16,800 | -31.74% | 52,926 |
| San Miguel | 6,985 | 62.88% | 3,887 | 34.99% | 236 | 2.13% | 3,098 | 27.89% | 11,108 |
| Sandoval | 41,205 | 51.80% | 36,605 | 46.02% | 1,730 | 2.18% | 4,600 | 5.78% | 79,540 |
| Santa Fe | 61,405 | 73.35% | 20,457 | 24.44% | 1,857 | 2.21% | 40,948 | 48.91% | 83,719 |
| Sierra | 2,332 | 39.17% | 3,473 | 58.34% | 148 | 2.49% | -1,141 | -19.17% | 5,953 |
| Socorro | 3,384 | 46.79% | 3,651 | 50.48% | 198 | 2.73% | -267 | -3.69% | 7,233 |
| Taos | 12,038 | 72.36% | 4,139 | 24.88% | 459 | 2.76% | 7,899 | 47.48% | 16,636 |
| Torrance | 2,144 | 29.86% | 4,880 | 67.98% | 155 | 2.16% | -2,736 | -38.12% | 7,179 |
| Union | 378 | 22.70% | 1,247 | 74.89% | 40 | 2.41% | -869 | -52.19% | 1,665 |
| Valencia | 13,609 | 40.90% | 19,057 | 57.27% | 611 | 1.83% | -5,448 | -16.37% | 33,277 |
| Totals | 478,802 | 51.85% | 423,391 | 45.85% | 21,210 | 2.30% | 55,411 | 6.00% | 923,403 |

##### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Socorro (largest city: Socorro)
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Democratic  Hold Republican  Hold  Gain from Democratic

#### By congressional district

Harris won 2 of 3 congressional districts, with Trump winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative | Cook PVI |
| 1st | 55% | 42% | Melanie Stansbury | D+6 |
| 2nd | 48% | 50% | Gabe Vasquez | R+1 |
| 3rd | 51% | 46% | Teresa Leger Fernandez | D+2 |

## Analysis

A Southwestern state, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since statehood except for 1976 (backing the losing candidate, Republican Gerald Ford, by merely 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state. The last Republican to win the state was George W. Bush from neighboring Texas in 2004. Democrats have held all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won the state since 2008.
New Mexico voted 7.5% to the left of the nation in this election, about 1 percent more Democratic than in 2020, during which it voted 6.3% to the left of the nation. Trump flipped majority-Hispanic Socorro County, becoming the first Republican to win the county since George H. W. Bush in 1988.
This is only the second time since statehood that New Mexico voted for the popular vote loser, after 1976, and the first time ever that it voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote. It is also the second time since statehood that it voted for a different candidate than Nevada, another Southwestern state, after 2000.