# Next Tasmanian state election

The next Tasmanian state election will be held no later than 3 June 2028 to elect all 35 seats in the House of Assembly. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).
The Liberal government, currently led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the Labor opposition, led by Dean Winter. Minor parties, including the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network will also contest the election. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
Jacqui Lambie announced in 2024 that her party would not endorse candidates in any future state elections, however she would offer financial and other means of support for her party's only remaining MP, Andrew Jenner, should he want to run for re-election.

## Background
### Previous election

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022. Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in 2025.
The Liberal Party won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the previous election, and formed a minority government with the support of three Jacqui Lambie Network members and two independents, namely Kristie Johnston and David O'Byrne. Labor remained in opposition with 10 members and the Greens won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member Michelle O'Byrne was elected unopposed to the position of Speaker of the Assembly.

### Minority government arrangements and changes in parliament

On 24 August 2024, Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) party leader Jacqui Lambie announced the party had expelled MPs Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick over what she described as issues of accountability, transparency and integrity. Both MPs subsequently became independents in the parliament, briefly reducing the government's confidence and supply numbers to 17 out of 35 seats. Shortly thereafter Pentland and Beswick issued a joint statement clarifying they would remain in parliament as independents, and that both would sign a new confidence and supply agreement with the government. This agreement was confirmed on 27 August 2024.

#### Changes in the Tasmanian parliament after the 2024 election

| Seat | Before | Before | Before | Change | Change | After | After | After | After |
| Seat | Member | Party | Party | Type | Date | Date | Member | Party | Party |
| Braddon | Miriam Beswick | | Jacqui Lambie Network | Expulsion | 24 August 2024 | 24 August 2024 | Miriam Beswick | | Independent |
| Bass | Rebekah Pentland | | Jacqui Lambie Network | Expulsion | 24 August 2024 | 24 August 2024 | Rebekah Pentland | | Independent |
| Lyons | Rebecca White | | Labor | Resignation | 12 February 2025 | 4 March 2025 | Casey Farrell | | Labor |

## Opinion polling
### Voting intention

| Date | Firm | Political parties | Political parties | Political parties | Political parties | Political parties |
| Date | Firm | LIB | ALP | GRN | JLN | OTH |
| 11-18 February 2025 | EMRS | 34% | 30% | 13% | 8% | 12% |
| 5-14 November 2024 | EMRS | 35% | 31% | 14% | 6% | 14% |
| 2-11 October 2024 | EMRS | 28% | 26% | 17% | 5% | 1% |
| 14-21 August 2024 | EMRS | 36% | 27% | 14% | 8% | 15% |
| August 2024 | Wolf & Smith | 32% | 23% | 14% | 11% | 20% |
| 16-23 May 2024 | EMRS | 35% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 15% |
| 23 March 2024 | 2024 Election | 36.7% | 29% | 13.9% | 6.7% | 13.75 |