# 2023 Hessian state election

The 2023 Hessian state elections was held on Sunday October 8, to elect the 21st Landtag of Hesse. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union and The Greens, led by Minister-President Boris Rhein of the CDU. The 2023 Bavarian state election was held the same day.
The result was a clear victory for the CDU, which took almost 35% of the vote on a swing of 7.6 percentage points. At 18%, the Alternative for Germany lifted its vote by over five points and became the second-largest party in a Western state for the first time. The Greens conversely lost five points, falling to fourth place on 15%, just behind the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) which suffered similar losses. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) narrowly passed the 5% electoral threshold with a 5.035% vote share; meanwhile, The Left fell to 3.1% and lost all their seats.
Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority, with a strengthened position for the leading CDU. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the federal government, with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal opinion polling.

## Election organization
### Election date

Article 79 of the Constitution of Hesse stipulates that the state parliament is elected for five years. The new election must take place before the end of the electoral period. According to Section 1 of the Hessian state election law, the election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday. The day of the election is determined by the state government by ordinance.
Since the 20th state parliament was constituted on January 18, 2019, Sunday, January 14, 2024, is the latest possible date for the election to the 21st Hessian state parliament.
On January 17, 2023, the Rhein cabinet decided to set October 8, 2023 as the election day. It follows the tradition that voting takes place in Hesse in the three months before the end of the electoral period. The Bavarian state election took place the same day.

### Electoral system

Parties and voter groups that have not been represented in the state parliament without interruption since the last state election need 1,000 signatures for their state list and 50 for their district election proposals.
The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate on the state list and one for a candidate in their constituency. The state list of a party is elected with the state vote that is decisive for the allocation of seats in the state parliament.
Parliament seats are calculated using the Hare-Niemeyer method.

## Parties

The following parties were represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse:
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 2018 result | 2018 result |
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | Votes (%) | Seats |
| | CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands | Christian democracy | Boris Rhein | 27.0% | 40 / 137 |
| | Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | Green politics | Tarek Al-Wazir | 19.8% | 29 / 137 |
| | SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | Social democracy | Nancy Faeser | 19.8% | 29 / 137 |
| | AfD | Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland | German nationalism Right-wing populism | Robert Lambrou | 13.1% | 19 / 137 |
| | FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei | Classical liberalism | Stefan Naas | 7.5% | 11 / 137 |
| | Linke | The Left Die Linke | Democratic socialism | Elisabeth Kula Jan Schalauske | 6.3% | 9 / 137 |

## Opinion polling
### Party polling

| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CDU | Grüne | SPD | AfD | FDP | Linke | FW | Others | Lead |
| 2023 state election | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 34.6 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 18.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 16.1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Oct 2023 | 949 | 34.5 | 16.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 18.0 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–5 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 32 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 | 1,002 | 33 | 16.5 | 16 | 16 | 5.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 16.5 |
| INSA | 25 Sep – 2 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 |
| Civey | 24 Sep – 1 Oct 2023 | 2,900 | 31 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 4 | – | 10 | 13 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25–28 Sep 2023 | 1,041 | 32 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| Infratest dimap | 25–27 Sep 2023 | 1,515 | 31 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 22–26 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 30.5 | 18 | 16 | 17.5 | 5 | 2.5 | 4 | 6.5 | 12.5 |
| Civey | 7–14 Sep 2023 | 3,001 | 31 | 19 | 19 | 14 | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 12 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–13 Sep 2023 | 1,200 | 30 | 17 | 20 | 17.5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4.5 | 10 |
| INSA | 4–11 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 29 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 5–9 Sep 2023 | 1,170 | 31 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,107 | 30 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 11 |
| Civey | 24–31 Aug 2023 | 3,002 | 29 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 9 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 29 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 5.5 | 2 | 4.5 | 5 | 9 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 21–23 Aug 2023 | 1,005 | 31 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 11 |
| Civey | 9–16 Aug 2023 | 2,810 | 29 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 9 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18–23 Jul 2023 | 1,015 | 25.5 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 5.5 | 6 | 5.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Jun – 1 Jul 2023 | 1,400 | 26 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 6 |
| INSA | 5–12 Jun 2023 | 1,000 | 29 | 18 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 17–22 May 2023 | 1,002 | 29 | 16 | 23.5 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| INSA | 17–24 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 30 | 20 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 5–14 Apr 2023 | 1,398 | 28 | 18 | 24 | 12.5 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5.5 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–11 Mar 2023 | 1,177 | 32 | 22 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 3 | – | 7 | 10 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–7 Mar 2023 | 1,003 | 29 | 21 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 1.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Feb 2023 | 1,521 | 26 | 20 | 25 | 12 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23–27 Dec 2022 | 1,150 | 28 | 19 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–27 Nov 2022 | 1,100 | 30 | 19.5 | 22 | 12 | 6.5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24–28 Oct 2022 | 1,082 | 28.5 | 21 | 18 | 13.5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–15 Oct 2022 | 1,161 | 27 | 22 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Sep 2022 | 1,000 | 30.5 | 21 | 15 | 14.5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–30 Aug 2022 | 1,010 | 29.5 | 26 | 15.5 | 9 | 7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 3.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–12 Jul 2022 | 1,043 | 29.5 | 26.5 | 20 | 7 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12–18 Jun 2022 | 1,200 | 32 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Apr–4 May 2022 | 1,023 | 28 | 24.5 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 3.5 | 2 | 6 | 3.5 |
| INSA | 4–11 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | 24 | 19 | 24 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | Tie |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–10 Mar 2022 | 1,400 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Feb–2 Mar 2022 | 1,169 | 27 | 20 | 24 | 7 | 9 | 5 | – | 8 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 21–28 Jan 2022 | 1,102 | 25 | 19 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Nov–2 Dec 2021 | 1,000 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 24.5 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | 3 |
| INSA | 11–19 Oct 2021 | 1,253 | 20 | 20 | 26 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 22.8 | 15.8 | 27.6 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 5–11 May 2021 | – | 21.5 | 27 | 16 | 9.5 | 12 | 5 | 5 | – | 5.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 18–23 Feb 2021 | 1,001 | 32 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 6 | – | 7 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–14 Dec 2020 | – | 32 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 12 | 6 | 6 | – | 4 | 10.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 1–7 Dec 2020 | 1,004 | 34 | 22 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 5 | – | 5 | 12 |
| INSA | 22–29 Oct 2020 | 1,018 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 9 | – | 7 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 5–12 Sep 2020 | – | 31.5 | 22 | 16.5 | 13 | 5 | 8 | – | – | 9.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 10–16 July 2020 | – | 30 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | – | – | 8.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 20–25 May 2020 | – | 36 | 20 | 20.5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | – | – | 15.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–13 May 2020 | 1,005 | 36 | 20 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 4 | – | 5 | 16 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 6–14 Apr 2020 | – | 32 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | – | – | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–13 Feb 2020 | 1,000 | 26 | 25 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 8 | – | 6 | 1 |
| INSA | 4–16 Dec 2019 | 2,000 | 26 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2019 EP election | 26 May 2019 | – | 25.8 | 23.4 | 18.4 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 10.0 | 2.4 |
| Infratest dimap | 16–24 Apr 2019 | 1,001 | 27 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 6 | – | 5 | 6 |
| 2018 state election | 28 Oct 2018 | – | 27.0 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 7.2 |

### Minister-president polling

| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | None/ Unsure | Lead |
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | RheinCDU | Al-WazirGrüne | FaeserSPD | LambrouAfD | None/ Unsure | Lead |
| Infratest dimap | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 38 | 23 | 15 | – | 24 | 15 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 50 | 30 | – | – | 20 | 19 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 61 | – | 21 | – | 18 | 40 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Oct 2023 | 949 | 38 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 21 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–5 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 44 | 33 | – | – | 23 | 11 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–5 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 55 | – | 24 | – | 21 | 31 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 | 1,002 | 35 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 25 | 18 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25–28 Sep 2023 | 1,041 | 44 | 31 | – | – | 25 | 13 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25–28 Sep 2023 | 1,041 | 55 | – | 21 | – | 24 | 34 |
| Infratest dimap | 25–27 Sep 2023 | 1,515 | 35 | 19 | 14 | – | 32 | 16 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 22–26 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 33 | 18 | 13 | 11 | 25 | 15 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–13 Sep 2023 | 1,200 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 27 | 15 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–13 Sep 2023 | 1,200 | 40 | – | 24 | – | 36 | 16 |
| Infratest dimap | 5–9 Sep 2023 | 1,170 | 33 | 21 | 17 | – | 29 | 12 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,107 | 42 | 31 | – | – | 27 | 11 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,107 | 50 | – | 26 | – | 24 | 24 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 30 | 15 | 21 | 12 | 22 | 9 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 32 | – | 27 | – | 41 | 5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 21–23 Aug 2023 | 1,005 | 44 | 31 | – | – | 25 | 13 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 21–23 Aug 2023 | 1,005 | 50 | – | 28 | – | 22 | 22 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18–23 Jul 2023 | 1,015 | 28 | 15 | 20 | 7 | 30 | 8 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18–23 Jul 2023 | 1,015 | 31 | – | 28 | – | 41 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Jun – 1 Jul 2023 | 1,400 | 30 | 17 | 20 | – | 33 | 10 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 17–22 May 2023 | 1,002 | 37 | 19 | 23 | – | 21 | 14 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 5–14 Apr 2023 | 1,398 | 34 | 23 | 24 | – | 19 | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–11 Mar 2023 | 1,177 | 32 | 23 | 17 | – | 28 | 9 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–7 Mar 2023 | 1,003 | 34 | 23 | 25 | – | 18 | 9 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Feb 2023 | 1,521 | 32 | 20 | 27 | – | 21 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23–27 Dec 2022 | 1,150 | 32 | 20 | 25 | – | 23 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–27 Nov 2022 | 1,100 | 36 | 15 | 26 | – | 23 | 10 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24–28 Oct 2022 | 1,082 | 37 | 19 | 24 | – | 20 | 13 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–15 Oct 2022 | 1,161 | 30 | 21 | 17 | – | 32 | 9 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–29 Sep 2022 | 1,400 | 39 | 19 | 19 | – | 23 | 20 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 25–30 Aug 2022 | 1,010 | 36 | 24 | 20 | – | 20 | 12 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–12 Jul 2022 | 1,043 | 35 | 25 | 23 | – | 17 | 10 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 10–17 Jun 2022 | 1,123 | 41 | 30 | 17 | – | 12 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Apr – 4 May 2022 | 1,023 | 30 | 28 | 23 | – | 19 | 2 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–10 Mar 2022 | 1,400 | 26 | 28 | 22 | – | 24 | 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Feb – 2 Mar 2022 | 1,169 | 26 | 23 | 20 | – | 31 | 3 |

## Election result

Summary of the 8 October 2023 election results for the Landtag of Hesse :
| Party | Party | Constituency | Constituency | Constituency | Party list | Party list | Party list | Party list | Total seats | +/- |
| Party | Party | Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | +/- | Seats | Total seats | +/- |
| | Christian Democratic Union | 997,870 | 35.6 | 52 | 972,876 | 34.6 | +7.6 | 0 | 52 | 12 |
| | Alternative for Germany | 490,894 | 17.5 | 0 | 518,763 | 18.4 | +5.3 | 28 | 28 | 9 |
| | Social Democratic Party | 512,349 | 18.3 | 0 | 424,587 | 15.1 | -4.7 | 23 | 23 | 6 |
| | Alliance 90/The Greens | 397,680 | 14.2 | 3 | 416,035 | 14.8 | -5.0 | 19 | 22 | 7 |
| | Free Democratic Party | 137,318 | 4.9 | 0 | 141,644 | 5.0 | -2.5 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| | Free Voters | 131,108 | 4.7 | 0 | 98,283 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | The Left | 90,520 | 3.2 | 0 | 86,842 | 3.1 | -3.2 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| | Human Environment Animal Protection Party | 5,181 | 0.2 | 0 | 43,341 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Volt Germany | 13,729 | 0.5 | 0 | 27,612 | 1.0 | New | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Die PARTEI | 18,595 | 0.7 | 0 | 23,678 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Grassroots Democratic Party | 4,285 | 0.2 | 0 | 13,707 | 0.5 | New | 0 | 0 | New |
| | V-Partei$^3$ | 155 | 0.0 | 0 | 9,472 | 0.3 | +0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Pirate Party Germany | 1,348 | 0.0 | 0 | 8,618 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Climate List Germany | 951 | 0.0 | 0 | 6,212 | 0.2 | New | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Ecological Democratic Party | – | – | – | 5,906 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Action Citizens for Justice | 324 | 0.0 | 0 | 4,442 | 0.2 | New | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Party of Humanists | 878 | 0.0 | 0 | 4,262 | 0.2 | +0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | German Communist Party | 776 | 0.0 | 0 | 2,229 | 0.1 | New | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Anarchist Pogo Party | 91 | 0.0 | 0 | 1,929 | 0.1 | New | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Party for Rejuvenation Research | – | – | – | 1,506 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | The New Centre | – | – | – | 1,369 | 0.0 | New | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Resident Representatives | 880 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Alliance C | 756 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Practitioner Party | 421 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Bürgerliste Weiterdenken | 187 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Solidarity, Justice, Change | 162 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Solibew | 124 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | New |
| | MERA25 | 99 | 0.0 | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | New |
| Total | Total | 2,806,681 | 100.00 | 55 | 2,813,313 | 100.00 | | 78 | 133 | 4 |
| Invalid | Invalid | 51,632 | 1.8 | | 45,000 | 1.6 | | | | |
| Turnout | Turnout | 2,858,313 | 66.0 | | 2,858,313 | 66.0 | -1.3 | | | |
| Registered voters | Registered voters | 4,332,235 | | | 4,332,235 | | | | | |
* ↑ Erststimmen
* ↑ Zweitstimmen
* CDU vote
* AfD vote
* SPD vote
* Green vote
* FDP vote
* FW vote
* Linke vote

## State government formation

Immediately after the elections, Prime Minister Boris Rhein announced that he wanted to hold exploratory talks with his previous coalition partner, the Greens, as well as with the SPD and FDP. According to Rhein, five rounds of talks took place between the CDU and the Greens as well as with the SPD in the following weeks.
On November 10, 2023, Rhein announced his intention to end the previous coalition between the CDU and the Greens and instead govern with the SPD. The CDU state executive committee and the parliamentary group in the state parliament had previously unanimously accepted the decision for negotiations. Rhein stated that the decision had "not been taken lightly" and had been "seriously considered".
The committees of the SPD Hesse also voted unanimously to start coalition negotiations with the CDU. Previously, Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser, the SPD's top candidate in the state elections in Hesse, had rejected a move to Wiesbaden.
The new Hessian state parliament was constituted on 18 January 2024.