# 44th Manitoba general election

The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

## Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027. The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

### Current standings

43rd Manitoba Legislature – Movement in seats held up to the election (2023-present) :
| Party | Party | 2023 | Gain/(loss) due to | Gain/(loss) due to | Gain/(loss) due to | Current |
| Party | Party | 2023 | Resignation or death of MLA | Removed from caucus | By-election | Current |
| | New Democratic | 34 | (1) | (1) | 1 | 33 |
| | Progressive Conservative | 22 | (1) | | | 21 |
| | Liberal | 1 | | | | 1 |
| | Independent | – | | 1 | | 1 |
| Total | Total | 57 | (2) | – | 1 | 56 |

## Timeline

Changes in seats held (2023–present) :
| Seat | Before | Before | Before | Before | Change | Change | Change |
| Seat | Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party |
| Tuxedo | May 6, 2024 | Heather Stefanson | █ PC | Resignation | July 8, 2024 | Carla Compton | █ New Democratic |
| Fort Garry | September 16, 2024 | Mark Wasyliw | █ New Democratic | Removed from caucus | | | █ Independent |
| Transcona | January 14, 2025 | Nello Altomare | █ New Democratic | Died in office | TBD | | |

### 2023

* October 3: The 2023 Manitoba general election is held, resulting in a majority for the New Democratic Party. The Progressive Conservative Party becomes the Official Opposition, and the Liberal Party is reduced to one seat. PC leader Heather Stefanson announces her intent to resign once her successor is chosen, while she will remain as MLA for Tuxedo. Dougald Lamont resigns as Liberal leader on election night after he loses his seat of Saint Boniface.
* October 17: Cindy Lamoureux, MLA for Tyndall Park, is selected as interim leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.
* October 18: The NDP Cabinet is sworn in.

### 2024

* January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
* April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election will be held to fill the seat on June 18.
* June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election, gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
* September 16: Mark Wasyliw, MLA for Fort Garry, is removed from the NDP caucus and will sit as an independent.

### 2025

* January 14: Education and Early Childhood Learning Minister and MLA for Transcona Nello Altomare dies in office.

## Opinion polling

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election :
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
| Probe Research | Nov 26 – Dec 10, 2024 | | 53% | 34% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 19% |
| Probe Research | Sep 5–15, 2024 | | 56% | 34% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 22% |
| Probe Research | May 28 – Jun 9, 2024 | | 51% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 13% |
| Probe Research | Mar 5–18, 2024 | | 49% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 12% |
| Probe Research | Nov 22 – Dec 1, 2023 | | 51% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 13% |
| 2023 general election | October 3, 2023 | | 45.63% | 41.86% | 10.63% | 0.77% | 0.74% | 0.37% | — | — | — | 3.77% |
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | | | | | | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |