# 2016 National Assembly for Wales election

The 2016 National Assembly for Wales election was held on Thursday 5 May 2016, to elect members (AMs) of the National Assembly for Wales, now known as the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It was the fifth election for the National Assembly, the third election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006 and the first since the Wales Act 2014.
The governing Labour Party's share of the vote fell by over 7% and 29 Labour AMs were elected, one fewer than in 2011 and two short of an overall majority. Plaid Cymru became the Assembly's second largest party and the official opposition to the Welsh Government with 12 seats, one more than before. The 11 Conservative AMs were elected, three fewer than in 2011. Although they did not win a single constituency, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) had 7 members elected through the regional lists vote. The Liberal Democrats had only one AM returned, down from five.
The election was held on the same day as elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Northern Ireland Assembly, the Mayor and Assembly of London and in numerous local authorities in England. The by-election for the Westminster seat of Ogmore was also held on the same day. This election and elections to the other devolved chambers were delayed by a year from 2015 to 2016 as a result of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Elections to the Welsh Assembly have now also been permanently moved to a five-year cycle under the Wales Act 2014.

## Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.
Previously it was not allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list, but this rule was abolished by the Wales Act 2014. The Act also introduced a ban on dual mandates with the House of Commons: an Assembly Member is no longer allowed also to be an MP.
British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged 18 or over on election day were entitled to vote.

## Retiring AMs

The following, previously incumbent AMs, did not run for re-election:
| Constituency/Region | Departing AM | Party |
| South Wales East region | Jocelyn Davies | Plaid Cymru |
| Arfon | Alun Ffred Jones | Plaid Cymru |
| Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | Rhodri Glyn Thomas | Plaid Cymru |
| Cynon Valley | Christine Chapman | Welsh Labour |
| Llanelli | Keith Davies | Welsh Labour |
| Ogmore | Janice Gregory | Welsh Labour |
| Gower | Edwina Hart | Welsh Labour |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | Huw Lewis | Welsh Labour |
| Delyn | Sandy Mewies | Welsh Labour |
| Islwyn | Gwyn R Price | Welsh Labour |
| Neath | Gwenda Thomas | Welsh Labour |
| Caerphilly | Jeffrey Cuthbert | Welsh Labour |
| Newport West | Dame Rosemary Butler | Welsh Labour |

## Constituency nominations

NB: AMs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.
| Constituency | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dem | Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | Others |
| Aberavon | David Jenkins | David Rees | Helen Ceri Clarke | Bethan Jenkins | Jonathan Tier | Glenda Davies | |
| Aberconwy | Janet Finch-Saunders | Mike Priestley | Sarah Lesiter-Burgess | Trystan Lewis | Petra Haig | | |
| Alyn and Deeside | Mike Gibbs | Carl Sargeant | Pete Williams | Jacqueline Hurst | Martin Bennewith | Michelle Brown | |
| Arfon | Martin Peet | Sion Jones | Sarah Lloyd Williams | Siân Gwenllian | | | |
| Blaenau Gwent | Tracey West | Alun Davies | Brendan D'Cruz | Nigel Copner | | Kevin Boucher | |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | Gary Price | Alex Thomas | Kirsty Williams | Freddy Greaves | Grenville Ham | Thomas Turton | |
| Bridgend | George Jabbour | Carwyn Jones | Jonathan Pratt | James Radcliffe | Charlotte Barlow | Caroline Jones | |
| Caerphilly | Jane Pratt | Hefin David | Aladdin Ayesh | Lindsay Whittle | Andrew Creak | Sam Gould | |
| Cardiff Central | Joel Williams | Jenny Rathbone | Eluned Parrott | Glyn Wise | Amelia Womack | Mohammed-Sarul Islam | Jane Croad (Independent) |
| Cardiff North | Jayne Cowan | Julie Morgan | John Dixon | Elin Walker Jones | Chris von Ruhland | Haydn Rushworth | Fiona Burt (Independent) |
| Cardiff South and Penarth | Ben Grey | Vaughan Gething | Nigel Howells | Dr Dafydd Trystan Davies | Anthony Slaughter | Hugh Moelwyn-Hughes | |
| Cardiff West | Sean Driscoll | Mark Drakeford | Cadan ap Tomos | Neil McEvoy | Hannah Pudner | Gareth Bennett | Elliot Freedman (Independent) Lee Woolls (Vapers in Power) |
| Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | Matthew Paul | Steve Jeacock | William Powell | Adam Price | Freya Amsbury | Neil Hamilton | |
| Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire | Angela Burns | Marc Tierney | Alistair Cameron | Simon Thomas | Val Bradley | Allan Brookes | Chris Overton (independent) |
| Ceredigion | Dr Felix Aubel | Iwan Wyn Jones | Elizabeth Evans | Elin Jones | Brian Williams | Gethin James | |
| Clwyd South | Simon Baynes | Ken Skates | Aled Roberts | Mabon ap Gwynfor | Duncan Rees | Mandy Jones | |
| Clwyd West | Darren Millar | Jo Thomas | Victor Babu | Llyr Huws Gruffydd | Julian Mahy | David Edwards | |
| Cynon Valley | Lyn Hudson | Vikki Howells | Michael Wallace | Cerith Griffiths | John Matthews | Liz Wilks | |
| Delyn | Huw Williams | Hannah Blythyn | Tom Rippeth | Paul Rowlinson | | Nigel Williams | |
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Neil Fairlamb | Ian MacIntyre | Stephen Churchman | Lord Elis-Thomas | Alice Hooker-Stroud | Frank Wykes | Louise Hughes (Independent) |
| Gower | Lyndon Jones | Rebecca Evans | Sheila Kingston-Jones | Harri Roberts | Abi Cherry-Hamer | Colin Beckett | |
| Islwyn | Paul Williams | Rhianon Passmore | Matthew Kidner | Lyn Ackerman | Katy Beddoe | Joe Smyth | |
| Llanelli | Stefan Ryszewski | Lee Waters | Gemma-Jane Bowker | Helen Mary Jones | Guy Martin Smith | Kenneth Denver-Rees (Ken Rees) | Siân Caiach (Putting Llanelli First) |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | Elizabeth Simon | Dawn Bowden | Bob Griffin | Brian Thomas | Julie Colbran | David Rowlands | |
| Monmouth | Nick Ramsay | Catherine Fookes | Veronica German | Jonathan Clark | Chris Were | Tim Price | Debby Blakebrough (Independent), Stephen Morris (English Democrats) |
| Montgomeryshire | Russell George | Martyn Singleton | Jane Dodds | Aled Morgan Hughes | Richard Chaloner | Des Parkinson | |
| Neath | Peter Crocker-Jaques | Jeremy Miles | Frank Little | Alun Llewelyn | Lisa Rapado | Richard Pritchard | Stephen Hunt (Independent) |
| Newport East | Munawar Mughal | John Griffiths | Paul Halliday | Tony Salkeld | Peter Varley | James Peterson | |
| Newport West | Matthew Evans | Jayne Bryant | Liz Newton | Simon Coopey | Pippa Bartolotti | Michael Ford | Gruff Meredith (Cymru Sovereign) Bill Fearnley-Whittingstall (Independent) |
| Ogmore | Jamie Wallis | Huw Irranca-Davies | Anita Davies | Tim Thomas | Laurence Brophy | Hazel Kendall | |
| Pontypridd | Joel James | Mick Antoniw | Mike Powell | Chad Rickard | Ken Barker | Edwin Allen | |
| Preseli Pembrokeshire | Paul Davies | Dan Lodge | Bob Kilmister | John Osmond | Frances Bryant | Howard Lillyman | |
| Rhondda | Maria Hill | Leighton Andrews | Rhys Taylor | Leanne Wood | Pat Matthews | Stephen Clee | |
| Swansea East | Sadie Vidal | Michael Hedges | Charlene Webster | Dic Jones | Tony Young | Clifford Johnson | |
| Swansea West | Craig Lawton | Julie James | Chris Holley | David Lloyd | Gareth Tucker | Rosie Irwin | Brian Johnson (Socialist Party of Great Britain) |
| Torfaen | Cllr Graham Smith | Lynne Neagle | Alison Willott | Matthew Woolfall-Jones | Steven Jenkins | Susan Boucher | |
| Vale of Clwyd | Sam Rowlands | Ann Jones | Gwyn Williams | Mair Rowlands | | Paul Davies-Cooke | |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Ross England | Jane Hutt | Denis Campbell | Ian Johnson | Alison Haden | Lawrence Andrews | |
| Wrexham | Andrew Atkinson | Lesley Griffiths | Beryl Blackmore | Carrie Harper | Alan Butterworth | Jeanette Bassford-Barton | |
| Ynys Môn | Clay Theakston | Julia Dobson | Mark Rosenthal | Rhun ap Iorwerth | Gerry Wolff | Simon Wall | Daniel Meredith Ap Eifion Jones (Independent) |

## Regional lists
### Mid and West Wales

| | Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party | Communist Party of Britain | Welsh Conservative Party | Wales Green Party | Monster Raving Loony Party | Welsh Local Independents | Welsh Labour | Welsh Liberal Democrats | People First | Plaid Cymru | UK Independence Party | Welsh Christian Party |
| 1. | Jeremy David Pugh | Catrin Ashton | Aled Wyn Davies | Alice Hooker-Stroud | Lady Lily the Pink | Huw Meredydd George | Elizabeth Joyce Watson | William Denston Powell | Siân Mair Caiach | Simon Thomas | Neil Hamilton | Jeffrey Green |
| 2. | Philip Bridger | Rick Newnham | Ian Harrison | Grenville Morgan Ham | Tristian Shout | Darren James Mayor | Mair Eluned Morgan | Jane Dodds | Alford Clement Thomas | Helen Mary Jones | Gethin James | Susan Green |
| 3. | Richard Davies | Clive Griffiths | Harry Legge-Bourke | Pippa Pemberton | Lord & Lady Dunquan | | John Bayliss | Gemma-Jane Bowker | Marion Binney | Vicky Moller | Des Parkinson | Louise Wynne Jones |
| 4. | Ben Edwards | David Llewelyn Brown | Denise Howard | Frances Bryant | Knigel Knapp | | Tonia Antoniazzi | Robert Philip Kilminster | Stephen Royston Bowen | Freddy John Dylan Greaves | Howard Lillyman | Barbara Irene Hill |
| 5. | | | Edward Rayner Peett | Brian Dafydd Williams | Helen Swindon | | | Alistair Ronald Cameron | David Wayne Erasmus | Mandy Williams-Davies | | |
| 6. | | | Stephen Davies | | Lieutenant Jâger Schnitzel | | | Stephen William Churchman | | Aled Morgan Hughes | | |
| 7. | | | Mary Davies | | R U Seerius | | | | | Elin Tracey Jones | | |
| 8. | | | | | | | | | | Steffan Huw Gwent | | |
| 9. | | | | | | | | | | Elin Jones | | |
| 10. | | | | | | | | | | John David Osmond | | |
| 11. | | | | | | | | | | Adam Price | | |

### North Wales

| | Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party | Communist Party of Britain | Welsh Conservative Party | Wales Green Party | Monster Raving Loony Party | Welsh Local Independents | Welsh Labour | Welsh Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | Independent | UK Independence Party |
| 1. | Harry Harrington | Trevor Jones | Mark Isherwood | Duncan Rees | Nick the Flying Brick | Goronwy Edwards | Mary Wimbury | Aled Roberts | Llyr Huws Gruffydd | Mark Young | Nathan Gill |
| 2. | Bryan Craven | Mandy Walsh | Janet Haworth | Martin Bennewith | Lord Cameron of Roundwood | Merfyn Parry | Jason McLellan | Victor Babu | Carrie Harper | | Michelle Brown |
| 3. | Philip Price | Glyn Davies | Barbara Hughes | Petra Haig | Johnny Disco | Nigel Smith | Bernadette Horton | Sarah Lesiter-Burgess | Paul Rowlinson | | Mandy Jones |
| 4. | Nicola Hodgson | Graham Morgan | Antony Bertola | Gerry Wolff | Sir Oink A-Lot | Barbara Smith | Carolyn Thomas | Rob Walsh | Eleanor Griffith | | David Edwards |
| 5. | | | Gary Burchett | | Mr McFloatyhands | | | Bruce Roberts | Jacqui Hurst | | |
| 6. | | | Adam Kealey | | Leon of Britain | | | Tom Rippeth | Abdul Khan | | |
| 7. | | | | | | | | | Trystan Lewis | | |
| 8. | | | | | | | | | Mair Rowlands | | |

### South Wales Central

| | Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party | Communist Party of Britain | Welsh Conservative Party | Wales Green Party | Monster Raving Loony Party | Welsh Labour Party | Welsh Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | Welsh TUSC | UK Independence Party | Women's Equality Party |
| 1. | David Bevan | Robert Griffiths | Andrew R.T. Davies | Amelia Womack | Mark Beech | Belinda Robertson | Eluned Parrott | Leanne Wood | Ross Saunders | Gareth Bennett | Sharon Lovell |
| 2. | Ceri Renwick | Gwen Griffiths | David Melding | Anthony Slaughter | Howling Laud Hope | Brian Back | John Dixon | Neil McEvoy | Mia Hollsing | Mohammed Islam | Emma Rose |
| 3. | Timothy Frederick | Ramon Corria | Richard John | Hannah Pudner | Tony Davies | Anna McMorrin | Karen Roberts | Dr Dafydd Trystan Davies | Lianne Francis | Liz Wilks | Sarah Rees |
| 4. | Richard Read | Dan Cole | Keith Dewhurst | Chris von Ruhland | Baron Von Thunderclap | Ali Ahmed | Cadan ap Tomos | Elizabeth Musa | Steve Williams | Stephen Clee | Ruth Williams |
| 5. | | | | | Michael Stephens | | Bablin Molik | Chad Rickard | Helen Jones | | |
| 6. | | | | | | | Nigel Howells | Michael Deem | Matthew Hatton | | |
| 7. | | | | | | | Elizabeth Clark | Elin Walker Jones | Catherine Peace | | |
| 8. | | | | | | | Rhys Taylor | Glyn Wise | Seb Robyns | | |

### South Wales East

| | Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party | Communist Party of Britain | Welsh Conservative Party | Wales Green Party | Monster Raving Loony Party | Welsh Labour | Welsh Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | Welsh TUSC | UK Independence Party |
| 1. | David Pritchard | Tommy Roberts | Mohammad Asghar | Pippa Bartolotti | Baron Von Magpie | Ruth Jones | Veronica German | Steffan Lewis | Jamie Davies | Mark Reckless |
| 2. | Roger Wilson | Mark Griffiths | Laura Jones | Ann Were | Hugo Shovit | Peter Jones | Paul Halliday | Delyth Jewell | Clare Gibbs | David Rowlands |
| 3. | Victoria Blackman | Barbara Thomas | Chris Butler | Christopher Were | Mad Mike Young | Deborah Wilcox | Bob Griffin | Nigel Copner | David Reid | Sue Boucher |
| 4. | Donald Wilson | Thabo Miller | Geoffrey Burrows | Katy Beddoe | Dr Doodle Do | Owen Evans | Alison Willott | Lyn Ackerman | Joshua Rawcliffe | Julie Price |
| 5. | | | William Graham | Andrew Creak | Arty Pole | | Brendan D'Cruz | Jonathan Clark | Mohammed Miah |
| 6. | | | | | | | Kay David | Matthew Woolfall-Jones | Rhys Pewtner | |
| 7. | | | | | | | Aladdin Ayesh | Eli Jones | | |
| 8. | | | | | | | | Gillian Jones | | |

### South Wales West

| | Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party | Communist Party of Britain | Welsh Conservative Party | Wales Green Party | Monster Raving Loony Party | Welsh Labour | Welsh Liberal Democrats | Plaid Cymru | Welsh TUSC | UK Independence Party |
| 1. | James Cole | Laura Picand | Suzy Davies | Lisa Rapado | Baron Barnes Von Claptrap | Ceri Reeves | Peter Black | Bethan Jenkins | Owen Herbert | Caroline Jones |
| 2. | Shaun Cuddihy | Roger Jones | Altaf Hussain | Charlotte Barlow | Sir Stevie Wonderful | Andrew Jenkins | Cheryl Green | Dai Lloyd | Claire Job | Martyn Ford |
| 3. | Philip Hughes-Davies | Justin Lilley | Daniel Boucher | Laurence Brophy | Glyn Hyndman | Fiona Gordon | Helen Ceri Clarke | Alun Llewelyn | John Evans | Colin Beckett |
| 4. | Shelagh Millar | Stephen Harmer | Edward Yi He | Mike Whittall | Robert William Gilis | Scott Jones | Sheila Kingston-Jones | Tim Thomas | Aaron David | Clifford Johnson |
| 5. | | | Carolyn Webster | Russell Kennedy | Dewi Anthony Bowen | | Anita Davies | Linet Purcell | Ronnie Job | |
| 6. | | | Rebecca Singh | Thomas Muller | Peter Alban Morris | | Mike Day | Philippa Richards | Emma Saunders | |
| 7. | | | | | Margaret Jean Phillips | | | | | |
| 8. | | | | | | | | | | |

## Opinion polls
### Constituency vote (FPTP)

| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Cons | Plaid | Lib Dem | UKIP | Others | Lead |
| 5 May 2016 | Assembly election (constituency) | 1,013,383 | 34.7% | 20.5% | 21.1% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 13.6% |
| 19–22 Apr 2016 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,001 | 33% | 19% | 21% | 8% | 15% | 3% | 12% |
| 7–11 Apr 2016 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,011 | 35% | 19% | 21% | 6% | 17% | 3% | 14% |
| 7–18 Mar 2016 | Welsh Election Study/Economic & Social Research Council | 3,272 | 34% | 22% | 21% | 6% | 15% | 3% | 12% |
| 9–11 Feb 2016 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | TBA | 34% | 22% | 19% | 5% | 18% | 2% | 12% |
| 30 Nov–4 Dec 2015 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,005 | 35% | 23% | 20% | 5% | 15% | 2% | 12% |
| 21–24 Sep 2015 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,010 | 39% | 23% | 18% | 6% | 13% | 1% | 16% |
| 24–26 Jun 2015 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,151 | 35% | 23% | 20% | 4% | 15% | 4% | 12% |
| 4–6 May 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,202 | 35% | 22% | 21% | 6% | 12% | 3% | 13% |
| 5–9 Mar 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,279 | 37% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 15% |
| 19–21 Jan 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,036 | 34% | 21% | 18% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 13% |
| 2–5 Dec 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,131 | 35% | 22% | 19% | 6% | 12% | 6% | 13% |
| 8–11 Sep 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,025 | 36% | 21% | 19% | 6% | 12% | 6% | 15% |
| 26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,035 | 39% | 20% | 19% | 8% | 13% | 5% | 19% |
| 11–22 Apr 2014 | YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University | 1,027 | 41% | 21% | 20% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 20% |
| 10–12 Feb 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,250 | 42% | 21% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 21% |
| 2–4 Dec 2013 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,001 | 43% | 19% | 20% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 23% |
| 18–22 Jul 2013 | YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog | 1,012 | 47% | 19% | 17% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 28% |
| 28 Feb 2013 | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election |
| 18–20 Feb 2013 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,007 | 46% | 21% | 17% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 25% |
| 5 May 2011 | National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (constituency) | 949,252 | 42.3% | 25.0% | 19.3% | 10.6% | N/A | 2.8% | 17.3% |

### Regional vote (AMS)

| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Cons | Plaid | Lib Dem | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
| 5 May 2016 | Assembly election (regional) | 1,005,541 | 31.5% | 18.8% | 20.8% | 6.5% | 13% | 3% | 6.5% | 10.7% |
| 19–22 Apr 2016 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,001 | 29% | 19% | 22% | 8% | 15% | 4% | 3% | 7% |
| 7–11 Apr 2016 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,011 | 31% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 11% |
| 7–18 Mar 2016 | Welsh Election Study/Economic & Social Research Council | 3,272 | 31% | 22% | 22% | 5% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 9% |
| 9–11 Feb 2016 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | TBA | 31% | 22% | 19% | 4% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 9% |
| 30 Nov–4 Dec 2015 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,005 | 34% | 23% | 18% | 4% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 11% |
| 21–24 Sep 2015 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,010 | 34% | 24% | 18% | 5% | 14% | 4% | 2% | 10% |
| 24–26 Jun 2015 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,151 | 32% | 22% | 20% | 5% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 10% |
| 4–6 May 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,202 | 32% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 10% |
| 5–9 Mar 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,279 | 33% | 22% | 21% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 11% |
| 19–21 Jan 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,036 | 32% | 20% | 15% | 8% | 16% | 8% | 2% | 12% |
| 2–5 Dec 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,131 | 31% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 11% |
| 8–11 Sep 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,025 | 31% | 21% | 16% | 5% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 10% |
| 26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,035 | 34% | 21% | 18% | 5% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 13% |
| 12–14 May 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,092 | 35% | 19% | 17% | 7% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 16% |
| 11–22 Apr 2014 | YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University | 1,027 | 37% | 21% | 19% | 7% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 16% |
| 10–12 Feb 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,250 | 39% | 19% | 17% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 20% |
| 2–4 Dec 2013 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,001 | 40% | 19% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 21% |
| 18–22 Jul 2013 | YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog | 1,012 | 25% | 12% | 23% | 9% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 2% |
| 28 Feb 2013 | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election | 2013 Ynys Môn by-election |
| 18–20 Feb 2013 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,007 | 26% | 14% | 26% | 8% | 13% | 6% | 7% | Tie |
| 5 May 2011 | National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (regional) | 949,388 | 36.9% | 22.5% | 17.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 6.7% | 14.4% |

## Results

2016 Welsh Assembly election :
| Parties | Parties | Additional member system | Additional member system | Additional member system | Additional member system | Additional member system | Additional member system | Additional member system | Additional member system | Additional member system | Additional member system | Total seats | Total seats | Total seats | Total seats |
| Parties | Parties | Constituency | Constituency | Constituency | Constituency | Constituency | Region | Region | Region | Region | Region | | | | Total seats | Total seats | Total seats | Total seats | Total seats |
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | +/− | Seats | +/− | Votes | % | +/− | Seats | +/− | Total | +/− | % |
| | Labour | 353,866 | 34.7 | 7.6 | 27 | 1 | 319,196 | 31.5 | 5.4 | 2 | | 29 | 1 | 48.3 |
| | Plaid Cymru | 209,376 | 20.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 1 | 211,548 | 20.8 | 2.9 | 6 | | 12 | 1 | 20.0 |
| | Conservative | 215,597 | 21.1 | 3.9 | 6 | | 190,846 | 18.8 | 3.7 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 18.3 |
| | UKIP | 127,038 | 12.5 | N/A | 0 | | 132,138 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 11.7 |
| | Liberal Democrats | 78,165 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 1 | | 65,504 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1.7 |
| | Abolish | — | — | — | — | — | 44,286 | 4.4 | N/A | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | Green | 25,202 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0 | | 30,211 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | Monster Raving Loony | — | — | — | — | — | 5,743 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | Association of Welsh Independents | — | — | — | — | — | 2,897 | 0.3 | N/A | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | Women's Equality | — | — | — | — | — | 2,807 | 0.3 | N/A | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | Communist | — | — | — | — | — | 2,452 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | TUSC | — | — | — | — | — | 2,040 | 0.2 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | Independent | 8,670 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0 | | 1,577 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | People First | — | — | — | — | — | 1,496 | 0.1 | N/A | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | Welsh Christian | — | — | — | — | — | 1,103 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |
| | Others | 1,469 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0 | | 899 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 |

### Votes summary

Popular Vote
Labour
31.5%
Plaid Cymru
20.8%
Conservative
18.8%
UKIP
13.0%
Liberal Democrats
6.5%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party
4.4%
Green
3.0%
Other
2.0% :
Assembly seats
Labour
48.3%
Plaid Cymru
20.0%
Conservative
18.3%
UKIP
11.7%
Liberal Democrats
1.7% :

### New members

23 of the members elected to the Assembly in the election were not members of the previous Assembly.

#### Constituency

* Hannah Blythyn, Labour, Delyn
* Dawn Bowden, Labour, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
* Rhianon Passmore, Labour, Islwyn
* Jayne Bryant, Labour, Newport West
* Vikki Howells, Labour, Cynon Valley
* Jeremy Miles, Labour, Neath
* Hefin David, Labour, Caerphilly
* Lee Waters, Labour, Llanelli
* Huw Irranca-Davies, Labour, Ogmore
* Adam Price, Plaid Cymru, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
* Siân Gwenllian, Plaid Cymru, Arfon
* Rebecca Evans, Labour, Gower

#### Regional

* Nathan Gill, UKIP, North Wales electoral region
* Michelle Brown, UKIP, North Wales electoral region
* Mark Reckless, UKIP, South Wales East electoral region
* David Rowlands, UKIP, South Wales East electoral region
* Steffan Lewis, Plaid Cymru, South Wales East electoral region
* Caroline Jones, UKIP, South Wales West electoral region
* Dai Lloyd, Plaid Cymru, South Wales West electoral region
* Neil Hamilton, UKIP, Mid and West Wales electoral region
* Eluned Morgan, Labour, Mid and West Wales electoral region
* Gareth Bennett, UKIP, South Wales Central electoral region
* Neil McEvoy, Plaid Cymru, South Wales Central electoral region

### Constituency and regional summary
#### Mid and West Wales

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: Mid and West Wales :
| Constituency | Elected member | Result |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | Kirsty Williams | Liberal Democrats hold |
| Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | Adam Price | Plaid Cymru hold |
| Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire | Angela Burns | Conservative hold |
| Ceredigion | Elin Jones | Plaid Cymru hold |
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Dafydd Elis-Thomas | Plaid Cymru hold |
| Llanelli | Lee Waters | Labour hold |
| Montgomeryshire | Russell George | Conservative hold |
| Preseli Pembrokeshire | Paul Davies | Conservative hold |
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: Mid and West Wales :
| Party | Elected candidates | Seats | +/− | Votes | % | +/−% |
| Plaid Cymru | Simon Thomas | 1 | ±0 | 56,754 | 26.3% | −0.5% |
| Conservative | | 0 | ±0 | 44,461 | 20.6% | -4.6% |
| Labour | Joyce Watson Eluned Morgan | 2 | ±0 | 41,975 | 19.4% | -3.1% |
| UKIP | Neil Hamilton | 1 | +1 | 25,042 | 11.6% | +7.2% |
| Liberal Democrats | | 0 | -1 | 23,554 | 10.9% | −1.9% |

#### North Wales

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: North Wales :
| Constituency | Elected member | Result |
| Aberconwy | Janet Finch-Saunders | Conservative hold |
| Alyn and Deeside | Carl Sargeant | Labour hold |
| Arfon | Siân Gwenllian | Plaid Cymru hold |
| Clwyd South | Ken Skates | Labour hold |
| Clwyd West | Darren Millar | Conservative hold |
| Delyn | Hannah Blythyn | Labour hold |
| Vale of Clwyd | Ann Jones | Labour hold |
| Wrexham | Lesley Griffiths | Labour hold |
| Ynys Môn | Rhun ap Iorwerth | Plaid Cymru hold |
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: North Wales :
| Party | Elected candidates | Seats | +/− | Votes | % | +/−% |
| Labour | | 0 | ±0 | 57,528 | 28.1% | -4.0% |
| Plaid Cymru | Llyr Huws Gruffydd | 1 | ±0 | 47,701 | 23.3% | +1.9% |
| Conservative | Mark Isherwood | 1 | -1 | 45,468 | 22.2% | -4.6% |
| UKIP | Nathan Gill Michelle Brown | 2 | +2 | 25,518 | 12.5% | +7.5% |
| Liberal Democrats | | 0 | -1 | 9,345 | 4.6% | −1.3% |

#### South Wales Central

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales Central :
| Constituency | Elected member | Result |
| Cardiff Central | Jenny Rathbone | Labour hold |
| Cardiff North | Julie Morgan | Labour hold |
| Cardiff South and Penarth | Vaughan Gething | Labour hold |
| Cardiff West | Mark Drakeford | Labour hold |
| Cynon Valley | Vikki Howells | Labour hold |
| Pontypridd | Mick Antoniw | Labour hold |
| Rhondda | Leanne Wood | Plaid Cymru gain from Labour |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Jane Hutt | Labour hold |
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales Central :
| Party | Elected candidates | Seats | +/− | Votes | % | +/−% |
| Labour | | 0 | ±0 | 78,366 | 33.9% | -7.1% |
| Plaid Cymru | Neil McEvoy | 1 | ±0 | 48,357 | 20.9% | +7.2% |
| Conservative | Andrew R. T. Davies David Melding | 2 | ±0 | 42,185 | 18.3% | -3.7% |
| UKIP | Gareth Bennett | 1 | +1 | 23,958 | 10.4% | +6.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | | 0 | -1 | 14,875 | 6.4% | −1.5% |

#### South Wales East

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales East :
| Constituency | Elected member | Result |
| Blaenau Gwent | Alun Davies | Labour hold |
| Caerphilly | Hefin David | Labour hold |
| Islwyn | Rhianon Passmore | Labour hold |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | Dawn Bowden | Labour hold |
| Monmouth | Nick Ramsay | Conservative hold |
| Newport East | John Griffiths | Labour hold |
| Newport West | Jayne Bryant | Labour hold |
| Torfaen | Lynne Neagle | Labour hold |
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales East :
| Party | Elected candidates | Seats | +/− | Votes | % | +/−% |
| Labour | | 0 | ±0 | 74,424 | 38.3% | -7.3% |
| UKIP | Mark Reckless David Rowlands | 2 | +2 | 34,524 | 17.8% | +12.5% |
| Conservative | Mohammad Asghar | 1 | -1 | 33,318 | 17.2% | -2.4% |
| Plaid Cymru | Steffan Lewis | 1 | -1 | 29,686 | 15.3% | +3.2% |

#### South Wales West

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales West :
| Constituency | Elected member | Result |
| Aberavon | David Rees | Labour hold |
| Bridgend | Carwyn Jones | Labour hold |
| Gower | Rebecca Evans | Labour hold |
| Neath | Jeremy Miles | Labour hold |
| Ogmore | Huw Irranca-Davies | Labour hold |
| Swansea East | Mike Hedges | Labour hold |
| Swansea West | Julie James | Labour hold |
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales West :
| Party | Elected candidates | Seats | +/− | Votes | % | +/−% |
| Labour | | 0 | ±0 | 66,903 | 39.5% | -6.9% |
| Plaid Cymru | Bethan Jenkins David Lloyd | 2 | +1 | 29,050 | 17.2% | +3.4 |
| Conservative | Suzy Davies | 1 | -1 | 25,414 | 15.0% | -2.8% |
| UKIP | Caroline Jones | 1 | +1 | 23,096 | 13.7% | +9.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | | 0 | -1 | 10,946 | 6.5% | −0.5% |

## Aftermath

Election of the First Minister :
| Ballot → | Ballot → | 11 May 2016 | 18 May 2016 |
| Required majority → | Required majority → | 30 out of 58 N | N/A Y |
| | Carwyn Jones (Labour) • Welsh Labour Party (28) • Welsh Liberal Democrats (1) | 29 / 60 | Unopposed |
| | Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru) • Plaid Cymru (11) • Welsh Conservative Party (11) • UK Independence Party (7) | 29 / 60 | Withdrew |
| | Not voting • Elin Jones (Presiding Officer) (1) • Ann Jones (Deputy Presiding Officer) (1) | 2 / 60 | |
| Sources ||||