# 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

Elections in Pennsylvania :
Federal government
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State government
Governor
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Elections by year
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Philadelphia
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Pittsburgh
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Government :
vte :
The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term. Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta, Green Party nominee Neal Gale, and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns. Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### On ballot

* Bob Casey Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | Unopposed | Unopposed |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 752,008 | 100.00% |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### On ballot

* Lou Barletta, U.S. Representative from Hazleton
* Jim Christiana, state representative from Beaver

#### Withdrew

* Paul Addis, businessman (running for PA-5)
* Cynthia E. Ayers, cyber security consultant and former National Security Agency employee
* Jeff Bartos, real estate developer (running for lieutenant governor)
* Paul DeLong, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004
* Bobby Lawrence, small business owner (endorsed Dale Kerns)
* Rick Saccone, state representative (ran for PA-18, ran for PA-14)
* Andrew Shecktor, Berwick Borough Councilman (running for PA-9)

#### Declined

* Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative
* Pat Meehan, former U.S. Representative
* Dave Reed, Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives

### Endorsements

State senators
* Jake Corman, State Senator from the 34th district (1999–2022), Pennsylvania State Senate Majority Leader (2015–2020)
State representatives
* Kerry Benninghoff, State Representative from the 171st district (1997–present)
* Garth Everett, State Representative from the 84th district (2007–2020)
* Mark Mustio, State Representative from the 44th district (2003–2019)
* Dave L. Reed, State Representative from the 62nd district (2003–2018), Pennsylvania House Majority Leader (2015–2018)
* Jesse Topper, State Representative from the 78th district (2014–present)
* Mike Turzai, 140th Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2015–2020), State Representative from the 28th district (2001–2020), candidate for Governor in 2018
Newspapers
* The Beaver County Times
Individuals
* Brigadier General Ken Chrosniak, former instructor at the U.S. Army War College
* Henry Cooper, former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative
* Dr. Brian Hay, business executive and national security expert
* Major General Robert B. Newman Jr., former Adjutant General of Virginia (USAF)
* Dr. Peter Pry, Director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory board to Congress on policies to counter Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Individuals
* Jeremy Hanson, host of Unleashed: The Jeremy Hanson Show

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lou Barletta | Jim Christiana | Other | Undecided |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana) | April 2018 | >400 | – | 32% | 11% | – | 58% |
| Bellwether Research (R-Addis) | September 20–24, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 22% | – | <10% | 60% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Lou Barletta | 433,312 | 63.03% |
| | Republican | Jim Christiana | 254,118 | 36.97% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 687,430 | 100.00% |

## Libertarian Party

Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018.

### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Dale Kerns, former Republican Eddystone Borough council member and board of directors member for Goodwill Industries

## Green Party
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Neal Gale, clean energy consultant

## General election
### Candidates

* Lou Barletta (R), U.S. Representative
* Bob Casey Jr. (D), incumbent senator
* Neal Gale (G), clean energy consultant
* Dale Kerns (L), former Eddystone Borough council member

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |

#### Notes

* ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

### Endorsements

Federal officials
* Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021)
* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. Senators
* Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007)
U.S. Representatives
* Ryan Costello, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district (2015–2019)
* Charlie Dent, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2005–2018)
* Brian Fitzpatrick, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (2017–2019)
* Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2011–2019)
* Tom Marino, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district (2011–2019)
* Pat Meehan, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district (2011–2018)
* Scott Perry, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2013–2019)
* Keith Rothfus, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2013–2019)
* Bill Shuster, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district (2001–2019)
* Lloyd Smucker, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (2017–2019)
* Glenn Thompson, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district (2009–2019)
State officials
* Jim Cawley, 32nd Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2011–2015)
State senators
* Lisa Baker, state senator from the 20th district (2007–present)
* Camera Bartolotta, state senator from the 46th district (2015–present)
* John DiSanto, state senator from the 15th district (2017–present)
* John Gordner, state senator from the 27th district (2003–2022)
* Scott Martin, state senator from the 13th district (2017–present)
* Mike Regan, state senator from the 31st district (2017–present)
* Mario Scavello, state senator from the 40th district (2015–2022)
* Robert Tomlinson, state senator from the 6th district (1995–present)
* Kim Ward, state senator from the 39th district (2009–present)
State representatives
* Steve Bloom, state representative from the 199th district (2011–2019)
* Sheryl Delozier, state representative from the 88th district (2009–present)
* Doyle Heffley, state representative from the 122nd district (2011–present)
* Sue Helm, state representative from the 104th district (2007–present)
* Dawn Keefer, state representative from the 92nd district (2017–present)
* Fred Keller, state representative from the 85th district (2011–2019)
* Jerry Knowles, state representative from the 124th district (2009–present)
* Ryan Mackenzie, state representative from the 134th district (2012–present)
* John Maher, state representative from the 40th district (1997–2019)
* Kurt Masser, state representative from the 107th district (2011–present)
* Tom Mehaffie, state representative from the 106th district (2017–present)
* Daryl Metcalfe, state representative from the 12th district (1999–present)
* Dave Millard, state representative from the 109th district (2004–present)
* Kristin Phillips-Hill, state representative from the 93rd district (2015–2019)
* Greg Rothman, state representative from the 87th district (2015–present)
* Justin Simmons, state representative from the 131st district (2011–2021)
* Mike Tobash, state representative from the 125th district (2011–2020)
* Tarah Toohil, state representative from the 116th district (2011–present)
Individuals
* Nigel Farage, chair of Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (2004–2019), Member of the European Parliament for South East England (1999–2020), and former chair and leader of the UK Independence Party (1998–2000)
* Paul Mango, candidate for Governor in 2018
* Eric Trump, businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump
* Lara Trump, television host and daughter-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump
Organizations
* Associated Builders and Contractors
* Fraternal Order of Police Fort Pitt Lodge #1
* National Electrical Contractors Association (NECA)
* National Federation of Independent Business
* National Right to Life
* Penn-Del-Jersey Chapter of NECA
* Pennsylvania GOP
* Students For Trump
* Western Pennsylvania Chapter of NECA
Newspapers
* The Patriot-News
Federal officials
* Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017)
* Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017)
U.S. Senators
* Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present)
* Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator from Nevada (2017–present)
* Dick Durbin, Senate Minority Whip (2015–2021), U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997–present)
* Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021)
* Ed Markey, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)
* Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009–present)
* Gary Peters, U.S. Senator from Michigan (2015–present)
* Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)
U.S. Representatives
* Dwight Evans, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district (2016–2019)
* Conor Lamb, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (2018–2019)
Local and state officials
* John Fetterman, Mayor of Braddock (2006–2019) and Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018
* Josh Shapiro, 50th Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017–2023)
* Tom Wolf, 47th Governor of Pennsylvania (2015–2023)
Labor unions
* Pennsylvania State AFL–CIO
* United Mine Workers of America
Organizations
* Council for a Livable World
* End Citizens United
* Equality Pennsylvania
* League of Conservation Voters
* National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
* Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund
* Sierra Club
Organizations
* Green Party
* Green Party of Pennsylvania
Governors
* Gary Johnson, 29th Governor of New Mexico (1995–2003), Libertarian nominee for President in 2012 and 2016, nominee for Senate in New Mexico in 2018
* Bill Weld, 68th Governor of Massachusetts (1991–1997), Libertarian nominee for Vice President in 2016
State and local politicians
* Brandon Magoon, Majority Inspector of Elections Erie 6-1 (Republican)
* Jennifer Moore, Upper Providence Township Auditor (Libertarian)
* Bruno Novak, Judge of Elections, Hempfield-3 (Libertarian)
* Michael Oehling Jr, Buffalo Township Republican Committeeman and Auditor
Individuals
* Bobby Lawrence, former Republican U.S. Senate candidate and small business owner
Organizations
* Libertarian Party
* Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | Lou Barletta (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,833 | – | 51% | 44% | 3% | – |
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | 1% | 4% |
| Muhlenberg College | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 421 | ± 5.5% | 54% | 40% | – | – |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 22–28, 2018 | 214 LV | ± 9.5% | 50% | 35% | – | 14% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 22–28, 2018 | 537 RV | ± 6.0% | 50% | 31% | 4% | 14% |
| Morning Consult | October 1–2, 2018 | 1,188 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 32% | – | 21% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 17–23, 2018 | 204 LV | – | 50% | 33% | – | 15% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 17–23, 2018 | 545 RV | ± 6.1% | 48% | 30% | 4% | 20% |
| Ipsos | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,080 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 3% | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College | September 13–19, 2018 | 404 | ± 5.5% | 53% | 35% | 7% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 12–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 38% | 2% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 20–26, 2018 | 222 LV | – | 47% | 34% | 1% | 19% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 20–26, 2018 | 511 RV | ± 6.1% | 48% | 29% | 3% | 20% |
| NBC News/Marist | August 12–16, 2018 | 713 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 38% | 1% | 8% |
| Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) | August 13–15, 2018 | 2,012 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 2% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 990 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Suffolk University | June 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 32% | 1% | 21% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | June 4–10, 2018 | 472 | ± 6.5% | 44% | 27% | 1% | 28% |
| Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 48% | 32% | 8% | 18% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 19–26, 2018 | 423 | ± 6.8% | 43% | 25% | 2% | 30% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 1,056 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 36% | – | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 2,165 | ± 3.8% | 52% | 43% | – | 5% |
with Jim Christiana
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | Jim Christiana (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Muhlenberg College | April 4–12, 2018 | 414 | ± 5.5% | 48% | 29% | 3% | 20% |
with generic Democrat and Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 1,056 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 41% | 7% |

### Results

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 2,792,437 | 55.74% | +2.05% |
| | Republican | Lou Barletta | 2,134,848 | 42.62% | −1.97% |
| | Libertarian | Dale Kerns | 50,907 | 1.02% | −0.70% |
| | Green | Neal Gale | 31,208 | 0.62% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 5,009,400 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)
* Luzerne (largest city: Wilkes-Barre)

#### By congressional district

Casey won 11 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st and 10th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.
| District | Barletta | Casey Jr. | Representative |
| 1st | 41.65% | 56.72% | Brian Fitzpatrick |
| 2nd | 20.33% | 78.53% |
| 2nd | 20.33% | 78.53% | Brendan Boyle |
| 3rd | 5.76% | 93.06% | Dwight Evans |
| 4th | 34.11% | 64.36% | Madeleine Dean |
| 5th | 30.84% | 67.88% | Mary Gay Scanlon |
| 6th | 39.17% | 59.05% | Chrissy Houlahan |
| 7th | 42.21% | 56.07% | Susan Wild |
| 8th | 47.02% | 51.84% |
| 8th | 47.02% | 51.84% | Matt Cartwright |
| 9th | 58.77% | 39.57% | Dan Meuser |
| 10th | 48.19% | 49.78% | Scott Perry |
| 11th | 55.77% | 42.04% | Lloyd Smucker |
| 12th | 60.26% | 37.80% | Tom Marino |
| 13th | 64.15% | 34.20% | John Joyce |
| 14th | 52.34% | 46.04% | Guy Reschenthaler |
| 15th | 60.19% | 38.04% | Glenn Thompson |
| 16th | 50.21% | 48.11% | Mike Kelly |
| 17th | 40.66% | 57.55% | Conor Lamb |
| 18th | 27.41% | 70.86% | Mike Doyle |