# 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina

Elections in North Carolina :
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Ballot measures
2012Amendment 1 :
Mayoral elections
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Fayetteville mayoral elections
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Raleigh mayoral elections
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Winston-Salem mayoral elections
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2024 :
vte :
The 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina. Incumbent two-term Republican Senator Thom Tillis, was re-elected with 48.7% of the vote in 2020. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party censured Tillis over his support of gun control and same-sex marriage.
Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in North Carolina since 2010.

## Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. It was also a top battleground state in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in both elections by 1.3% and 3.2%, respectively.
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature and hold a supermajority in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation, as well as both of the state's senate seats. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2024, where they won half of the state's executive offices.
As one of only two seats up held by a Republican in a state that did not vote for Trump by double digits in 2024, North Carolina is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026.

## Republican primary

Senator Thom Tillis is considered vulnerable to a primary challenger from his right. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party voted to censure Tillis for his support for the Respect for Marriage Act and immigration reform attempts.

### Candidates
#### Declared

* Andy Nilsson, teacher's assistant
* Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present)

#### Potential

* Michele Morrow, nurse and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2024
* Lara Trump, former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025) and daughter-in-law of president Donald Trump

#### Declined

* Mark Robinson, former Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–2025) and nominee for governor in 2024

### Endorsements

U.S. senators
* John Barrasso, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present)
* Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)
* John Boozman, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2011–present)
* Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present)
* Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2015–present)
* Bill Cassidy, U.S. senator from Louisiana (2015–present)
* Mike Crapo, U.S. senator from Idaho (1999–present)
* Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)
* Steve Daines, U.S. senator from Montana (2015–present)
* Joni Ernst, U.S. senator from Iowa (2015–present)
* Deb Fischer, U.S. senator from Nebraska (2013–present)
* Chuck Grassley, U.S. senator from Iowa (1981–present)
* James Lankford, U.S. senator from Oklahoma (2015–present)
* Cynthia Lummis, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2021–present)
* Markwayne Mullin, U.S. senator from Oklahoma (2023–present)
* Lisa Murkowski, U.S. senator from Alaska (2002–present)
* Pete Ricketts, U.S. senator from Nebraska (2023–present)
* Mike Rounds, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2015–present)

### Polling

Mark Robinson vs. Thom Tillis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Thom Tillis | Mark Robinson | Undecided |
| Campaign Viability Research | November 13–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | N/A | 42% | 35% | 23% |
Thom Tillis vs. Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Thom Tillis | Generic Republican | Undecided |
| Campaign Viability Research | November 13–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | N/A | 31% | 36% | 33% |
Lara Trump vs. Thom Tillis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Thom Tillis | Lara Trump | Undecided |
| Victory Insights | November 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | N/A | 11% | 65% | 25% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Publicly expressed interest

* Roy Cooper, former Governor of North Carolina (2017–2025)
* Wiley Nickel, former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–2025)

#### Potential

* Jeff Jackson, North Carolina Attorney General (2025–present) and former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–2024)

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Inside Elections | Battleground | January 17, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | February 11, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Tossup | February 13, 2025 |

### Polling

Thom Tillis vs. Roy Cooper
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Thom Tillis (R) | Roy Cooper (D) | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 4–5, 2025 | 662 (V) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 47% | 9% |
| Victory Insights | November 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
Lara Trump vs. Roy Cooper
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lara Trump (R) | Roy Cooper (D) | Undecided |
| Victory Insights | November 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 10% |