# Missouri bellwether

Elections in Missouri :
Federal government
Presidential elections
1820
1824
1828
1832
1836
1840
1844
1848
1852
1856
1860
1864
1868
1872
1876
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Missouri bellwether
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate
1821
1825
1827
1830
1833
1836
1839
1842
1843 sp
1845
1849
1851
1857
1857 sp
1861
1863
1863 sp
1868
1871 sp
1874
1879
1879 sp
1881
1885
1887
1891
1893
1897
1899
1903
1905
1909
1911
1911
1914
1916
1918 sp
1920
1922
1926
1926 sp
1928
1932
1934
1938
1940
1944
1946
1950
1952
1956
1958
1960 sp
1962
1964
1968
1970
1974
1976
1980
1982
1986
1988
1992
1994
1998
2000
2002 sp
2004
2006
2010
2012
2016
2018
2022
2024
2028
U.S. House of Representatives
1820
1822
1824
1826
1828
1831
1832–33
1835
1836
1838
1839
AL sp
1840
1842
1844
1846
AL sp
1848
1850
1852
1854
1856
1858
1860
1st sp
1862
1864
1866
1867
3rd sp
1868
5th sp
1870
1872
1874
1876
1878
1880
7th sp
1882
2nd sp
1884
1886
1888
1889
4th sp
1890
14th sp
1892
1894
1896
1897
1st sp
1898
1899
8th sp
1900
1902
12th sp
1904
1906
1908
1910
6th sp
1912
1914
1916
1918
10th sp
1920
1921
4th sp
1922
1924
1926
11th sp
1928
1929
4th sp
1930
1931
7th sp
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1943
6th sp
1944
1946
1948
10th sp
1950
1951
11th sp
1952
1954
1956
1958
1959
4th sp
1960
1962
1964
9th sp
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
6th sp
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
8th sp
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2013
8th sp
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024 :
State government
State elections
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Gubernatorial elections
1820
1824
1825 sp
1828
1832
1836
1840
1844
1848
1852
1856
1857 sp
1860
1864
1868
1870
1872
1874
1876
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Lieutenant gubernatorial elections
1820
1824
1828
1832
1836
1840
1844
1848
1852
1856
1860
1864
1868
1870
1872
1874
1876
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Secretary of State elections
2012
2016
2020
2024
Attorney General elections
2012
2016
2020
2024
State Treasurer elections
2012
2016
2020
2024
State Auditor elections
2010
2014
2018
2022
Senate elections
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
House of Representatives elections
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026 :
Ballot measures
1999
Proposition B
2004
Amendment 2
2006
Amendment 2
2018
Proposition A
2020
Amendment 2
2022
Amendment 3
2024
Amendment 3 :
Columbia
Mayoral elections
2016
2019
2022
2025 :
Jefferson City
Mayoral elections
2015
2019
2023 :
St. Charles
Mayoral elections
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023 :
Kansas City
Mayoral elections
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023 :
Springfield
Mayoral elections
2021
2025 :
St. Louis
Mayoral elections
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
Board of Aldermen elections
2023 :
O'Fallon
Mayoral elections
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025 :
vte :
The Missouri bellwether was a political phenomenon that noted that the state of Missouri voted for the winner in all but one U.S. presidential election from 1904 to 2004 (the exception being 1956). While states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio, and Florida have been arguably stronger indicators of political trends in recent years, Missouri was a consistent swing state throughout the 20th century. Prior to the 2008 elections, Lincoln County, Missouri was said to be the only bellwether county in a bellwether state. Missouri was also considered a bellwether of U.S. views on hot-button social issues such as stem cell research and school vouchers. Some economists also considered the state a bellwether for economic trends such as consumer confidence and unemployment.

## Political history

From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.
In 2006, Missouri's bellwether status gained renewed attention because of the 2006 Senate race between incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent and Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill, which was considered vital to which party controls Congress. Additionally, Missouri had a ballot measure, Missouri Amendment Two, regarding stem cell research that drew national attention as an indicator of mainstream sentiment towards this controversial issue. On Election Day 2006, both McCaskill and Amendment 2 narrowly received majority support among Missouri voters. The victories of McCaskill and five other Democratic colleagues allowed their party to regain power in the U.S. Senate. Missouri was again the center of much media attention in 2012, after Rep. Todd Akin (R, MO-2) made controversial remarks regarding what he called "legitimate rape." McCaskill was seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents prior to these remarks, but went on to win the 2012 election by nearly 16 points.
In the 2008 presidential primaries, the state voted for the major parties candidates who went on to secure their parties' nominations: John McCain (Republican) and Barack Obama (Democratic). Missouri did the same in 2016, voting for Hillary Clinton by a razor thin margin in the Democratic primary—actually tying with her opponent Bernie Sanders in one county—and voting narrowly for Donald Trump in the Republican primary. Despite her running mate having significant ties to the state, Clinton lost Missouri to Trump by more than 18 percentage points.

## Possible causes

Location and demographics are most often cited as the cause of Missouri's bellwether status. In 2004, the Chicago Tribune called Missouri the "bellwether state that almost exactly mirrors the demographic, economic and political makeup of the nation." A microcosm of the country's current political makeup, Missouri has its two Blue "coasts" of St. Louis and Kansas City with Red middle and southern areas (see Red states and blue states).

## Future of bellwether status

Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson from Texas, Jimmy Carter from Georgia, and Bill Clinton from Arkansas. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri voted by 18.5% and 15.4%, respectively for Republican Donald Trump. Trump won in 2016 and lost in 2020. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, despite there being three subsequent elections won by Democrats.
* Ohio has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1896, except in 1944, 1960 and 2020, with no Republican ever winning the White House without the state.
* Nevada has been carried by the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with only two exceptions: 1976 and 2016.
* Florida has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1928, except in 1960, 1992, and 2020.
One of the more important national phenomena that has not had the same impact in Missouri as in the rest of the country is the influx of immigrants, particularly Latinos. Analysts and journalists in recent times have pointed to states like Ohio, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania, as more accurate political and cultural bellwethers.
The 21st century Missouri electorate is also much less urbanized than in the 20th century. In 1900, the combined population of St. Louis (575,238) and Kansas City (163,752) was 24% of the population of Missouri (3,106,665), while by 1950 the combined population of St. Louis (856,796) and Kansas City (456,622) had grown to 33% of the population of the state (3,954,653). But shortly thereafter the population of St. Louis began a sharp decline, while that of Kansas City remained nearly static, such that the state is now dominated by rural, suburban, and small-city voters, who are generally more conservative. By 2000, the combined populations of St. Louis (348,189) and Kansas City (441,545) had declined to 14% of the population of Missouri (5,595,211).
This shift is a direct product of the small geographic size of St. Louis City, which is nearly unique among major urban centers in having locked its boundaries in 1876. When the population of St. Louis County is included in these figures, Missouri's ratio of major metropolitan residents to rural residents closely matches the nation as a whole.
Slate columnist Chris Suellentrop has said that the state now "isn't so much a bellwether as it is a weathervane: It doesn't swing the country, the country swings it..." and that Missouri is a better indicator of whether a trend is mainstream than of what the next new trend will be. Missouri may be a bellwether for abortion in 2024, with 2024 Missouri Amendment 3 passing.