# Heiko Andreas von der Gracht

Heiko Andreas von der Gracht (born 1978) is a German academic, futurist, author, and an expert in the fields of Foresight and Technology Management.
He is a Professor of Foresight and Digital Transformation at the University of Continuing Education Krems.
Von der Gracht is listed among the most influential researchers globally (top 2%).
His surname, 'von der Gracht', originates from the Dutch noble family Van der Gracht (Dutch Wikipedia).

## Early life and education

Von der Gracht was born in Aachen in 1978, grew up in Jülich and attended the Gymnasium Zitadelle Jülich [de] (Jülich Citadel Grammar School) (Abitur 1998).
He graduated in 2003 as an industrial engineer (with distinction) in a dual degree program from the Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, Germany, and Fontys University of Applied Sciences in Venlo, Netherlands. In 2004, von der Gracht received a Master of Science (with distinction) in supply chain management from the University of Plymouth in England. From 2005 to 2008, he was a research assistant at the EBS University of Business and Law, where he completed his doctorate summa cum laude in 2008 on the subject of Futures studies.

## Professional life

In 2009, he started his professional life and founded the Centre for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management at the EBS University of Business and Law, which he developed into an independent research institute in the years that followed. One of the institute's key areas of focus was the scientific foundation of futures research methods. In 2013, he co-founded the first executive education program for corporate foresight in Germany.
In 2013, von der Gracht joined KPMG Germany as a futurist and head of a think tank for strategic foresight.
He obtained his Habilitation (post-doctoral lecturing qualification) in 2017 from University of Erlangen–Nuremberg. Since 2024, he has been Professor of Foresight and Digital Transformation at the University for Continuing Education Krems. His appointment was made under § 99a of the Universitätsgesetz 2002 [de] (Austrian Universities Act 2002), a highly selective process for proactively recruiting outstanding scientists in international competition. Such appointments remain rare, making up only 2% of all professorial hires in 2019 and 3% in 2022, for example. Previously, he held the Chair of Futures Studies at Steinbeis University. As of 2023, von der Gracht has educated more than 8,000 students in foresight methods in postgraduate and part-time degree programs.
Von der gracht has led foresight projects across various industries and fields, in particular on the future of automotive, energy, pharmaceuticals, purchasing, logistics and mobility, artificial intelligence and new work. In collaboration with Eurac Research and on behalf of the Government of South Tyrol, he developed future scenarios and options for a sustainable South Tyrol, taking into account the experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Von der Gracht was a member of the interdisciplinary project advisory board and scientific director for the project process and methodology.
Von der Gracht also serves as a member of the Global Foresight Network at World Economic Forum (WEF) and as ambassador for its Global Collaboration Village (Forum Metaverse)

## Research

In the Stanford/Elsevier Ranking, von der Gracht has been among the top 2 percent of the most cited scientists worldwide for consecutive years (2019-2024). In the Handelsblatt scientists ranking 2014, which analysed the research performance of more than 2,300 researchers in business administration in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, von der Gracht achieved 50th rank (category: all age groups) and 32nd rank in category under 40 years.
He has published research articles in academic journals in various sub-disciplines of business administration, including logistics, technology, innovation and entrepreneurship and sustainability management. He often uses the Delphi method in his empirical research. Based on the pioneering work of futurist Theodore J. Gordon in The Millennium Project, von der Gracht developed the expert survey software ‘Real-time Delphi’. In 2011, von der Gracht and Gordon presented a joint paper at World Future Society (WFS) Annual Summit 2011, which summarizes the lessons learned of 40 Real-time Delphi (RTD) studies across their two platforms.
Von der Gracht is the founder and co-editor of scientific journals. In early 2018, together with Professors George Wright from the University of Strathclyde and George Cairns from Queensland University of Technology, he founded the international journal Futures & Foresight Science, of which he has been Associate Editor ever since. From 2012, he initially served on the Advisory Board of the journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change and has been Associate Editor of the journal since 2017.

## Selected publications
### Books and reports

* The future of logistics: scenarios for 2025. Dissertation. Gabler 2008, ISBN 9783834910820
* Heiko von der Gracht, Michael Salcher, Nikolaus Graf Kerssenbrock (2015); The Energy Challenge: A Licence for Navigating the Future; REDLINE; ISBN 9783864148897
* Heiko von der Gracht, Angelika Huber-Strasser, Marcus Schüller, Nils Müller, Petra Lichtenau, Hannah Zühlke (2018); Rethinking the value chain. A study on AI, humanoids and robots - Artificial Intelligence: Possible business application and development scenarios to 2040 (via ResearchGate)
* Sascha L. Schmidt, Heiko von der Gracht, Daniel Beiderbeck, Gerrit Heidemann (2023); AI, Blockchain, and immersive technologies: Metaversal business models of professional football clubs in 2030 (via ResearchGate)

### Articles

* Consensus Measurement in Delphi Studies – Review and Implications for Future Quality Assurance. In: Technological Forecasting & Social Change. Vol. 79, No. 8, 2012, p. 1525–1536, doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.013.
* with Daniel Beiderbeck, Nicolas Frevel, Sascha L. Schmidt, Vera M. Schweitzer: Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements In: MethodsX. Vol. 8, 2021, p. 101401, doi:10.1016/j.mex.2021.101401.
* with Christoph Markmann, Alexander Spickermann, Alexander Brem: Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior. In: Futures & Foresight Science. 2020;e56, doi:10.1002/ffo2.56.
* with Inga-Lena Darkow: Scenarios for the Logistics Service Industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025. In: International Journal of Production Economics. Vol. 127, No. 1, 2010, p. 46–59, doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.04.013.
* with Tobias Gnatzy, Johannes Warth, Inga-Lena Darkow: Validating an Innovative Real-Time Delphi Approach – A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies. In: Technological Forecasting & Social Change. Vol. 78, No. 9, 2011, p. 1681–1694, doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.006.
* with Robert Vennemann, Inga-Lena Darkow: Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management: A Portfolio – Approach in Evaluating Organizational Development. In: Futures – The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Vol. 42, No. 4, 2010, p. 380–393, doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023.
* with Jay E. Gary: The Future of the Foresight Professionals: Results from a Delphi Study. In: Futures – The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Vol. 71, 2015, p. 132–145, doi:10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.005.
* with Victor A. Bañuls, Murray Turoff, Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski, Theodore J. Gordon: Foresight Support Systems: The future role of ICT for foresight. In: Technological Forecasting & Social Change. Vol. 97, 2015, p. 1–6, doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.08.010.