# Next Andalusian regional election

The next Andalusian regional election will be held no later than Tuesday, 30 June 2026, to elect the 13th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

## Overview
### Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.
The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province does not exceed two times that of any other).
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency is entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
| 18 | Seville |
| 17 | Málaga |
| 15 | Cádiz |
| 13 | Granada |
| 12 | Almería, Córdoba |
| 11 | Huelva, Jaén |
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

### Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 19 June 2022, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 19 June 2026. The election decree must be published in the BOJA no later than 26 May 2026, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest (theoretical) possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 19 July 2026. However, due to the summer temporary ban on elections, the latest real date for an election to be held is Tuesday, 30 June 2026.
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

## Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time.
Current parliamentary composition :
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Legislators | Legislators |
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Seats | Total |
| | Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group | | PP | 58 | 58 |
| | Socialist Parliamentary Group | | PSOE–A | 30 | 30 |
| | Vox Parliamentary Group in Andalusia | | Vox | 14 | 14 |
| | For Andalusia Parliamentary Group | | Podemos | 3 | 5 |
| | For Andalusia Parliamentary Group | | IULV–CA | 1 | 5 |
| | For Andalusia Parliamentary Group | | SMR | 1 | 5 |
| | Mixed Group | | Adelante | 2 | 2 |

## Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. |
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Votes (%) | Seats | Gov. | Ref. |
| | PP | List People's Party (PP) | | Juanma Moreno | Conservatism Christian democracy | 43.13% | 58 | Y | |
| | PSOE–A | List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | | María Jesús Montero | Social democracy | 24.09% | 30 | N | [9] [10] |
| | Vox | List Vox (Vox) | | Manuel Gavira | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism | 13.46% | 14 | N | |
| | PorA | List United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) – Communist Party of Andalusia (PCA) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Greens Equo (Verdes Equo) More Country Andalusia (Más País–Andalucía) Andalusian People's Initiative (IdPA) We Can (Podemos) Green Alliance (AV) | | Inmaculada Nieto | Left-wing populism Green politics | 7.68% | 5 | N | |
| | Adelante Andalucía | List Anti-capitalists (Anticapitalistas) Andalusian Spring (Primavera Andaluza) Andalusian Left (IzA) Defend Andalusia (Defender Andalucía) | | José Ignacio García | Andalusian nationalism Left-wing populism Anti-capitalism | 4.58% | 2 | N | [12] [13] |

## Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

### Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are also displayed below (or in place of) the voting estimates in a smaller font; 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | SALF | Lead |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo | 10–25 Feb 2025 | 1,464 | ? | 43.9 57/59 | 24.6 29/31 | 12.5 12/13 | 8.1 6 | 4.8 2/3 | – | | | 2.5 0 | 19.3 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español | 24–26 Feb 2025 | 1,500 | ? | 45.5 57 | 29.9 35 | 11.4 12 | 6.5 5 | 3.2 0 | – | | | – | 15.6 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 15–23 Jan 2025 | 1,000 | 57.7 | 44.3 59/60 | 22.2 28/29 | 13.7 14/15 | 7.4 5 | 4.4 2 | – | | | 2.8 0 | 22.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo | 25 Nov–4 Dec 2024 | 1,402 | ? | 42.2 55/57 | 22.9 28/29 | 13.3 13/14 | 10.5 9/10 | 4.9 2 | – | | | 2.7 0 | 19.3 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 20–29 Nov 2024 | 3,600 | 62.4 | 43.5 57/59 | 21.4 26/27 | 13.3 13/15 | 7.5 6/8 | 4.1 2/3 | – | | | 3.7 0/2 | 22.1 |
| Social Data/Grupo Viva | 13–22 Nov 2024 | 2,400 | ? | 43.1 54/59 | 24.8 27/34 | 14.8 13/18 | 7.0 5/6 | 4.8 2/3 | – | 1.9 0 | | – | 18.3 |
| Data10/OKDiario | 20–21 Nov 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 44.4 59 | 24.4 29 | 14.9 15 | 8.6 6 | 2.8 0 | – | | | – | 20.0 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 16–30 Sep 2024 | 3,600 | 59.9 | 41.8 56/58 | 27.1 30/32 | 11.1 12/13 | 8.6 6/7 | 4.3 1/2 | – | | | 2.7 0 | 14.7 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 18 Jun–2 Jul 2024 | 3,600 | 57.1 | 41.6 57/59 | 23.5 30/31 | 12.0 12/13 | 10.2 7/8 | 3.9 0/1 | 1.2 0 | | | 2.4 0 | 18.1 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 43.6 | 37.9 (48) | 32.2 (40) | 10.9 (12) | | – | 0.7 (0) | 2.8 (0) | 5.1 (4) | 6.2 (5) | 5.7 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 22 Mar–9 Apr 2024 | 3,632 | 52.6 | 46.1 58/61 | 21.2 24/27 | 13.8 14/17 | 8.6 7/8 | 3.3 0/1 | 2.0 0 | | | – | 24.9 |
| Sigma Dos/OKDiario | 28 Feb 2024 | ? | ? | 46.4 59 | 24.5 29 | 10.2 10 | 10.5 9 | 5.1 2 | – | | | – | 21.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 12–22 Dec 2023 | 3,600 | 55.0 | 46.2 60/62 | 21.0 25/27 | 12.7 11/12 | 11.9 10 | 3.8 0/1 | 1.5 0 | | | – | 25.2 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 11–21 Sep 2023 | 3,600 | 59.8 | 41.4 56/58 | 24.7 30/32 | 11.7 9/10 | 12.6 10/12 | 4.8 0/2 | 1.3 0 | | | – | 16.7 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 66.6 | 36.4 (45) | 33.5 (38) | 15.3 (16) | | 0.2 (0) | – | | 12.0 (10) | – | 2.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 12–23 Jun 2023 | 3,600 | 58.9 | 44.6 58/59 | 24.1 30/31 | 12.5 12/13 | 8.5 5/6 | 5.3 2 | 1.6 0 | | – | – | 20.5 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 7–21 Mar 2023 | 3,600 | 56.7 | 42.2 56/57 | 24.2 30/31 | 13.4 12/13 | 8.5 8/9 | 3.3 1 | 4.2 0 | | – | – | 18.0 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 1 Jan–13 Feb 2023 | 854 | ? | 46.0 60 | 23.4 28 | 11.2 13 | 8.0 6 | 4.7 2 | 3.0 0 | | – | – | 22.6 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 21 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 3,600 | 58.0 | 42.3 56/58 | 19.4 22/23 | 12.8 13/14 | 11.9 12/13 | 5.4 3/4 | 3.1 0 | | – | – | 22.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 13–26 Sep 2022 | 3,600 | 53.2 | 45.5 58/60 | 21.1 27/28 | 11.5 10/11 | 11.4 10/11 | 4.9 1/2 | 2.3 0 | | – | – | 24.4 |
| 2022 regional election | 19 Jun 2022 | — | 55.9 | 43.1 58 | 24.1 30 | 13.5 14 | 7.7 5 | 4.6 2 | 3.3 0 | | – | – | 19.0 |

### Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | | SALF | ? | N | Lead |
| CENTRA/CEA | 20–29 Nov 2024 | 3,600 | 32.8 | 16.1 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | | 2.5 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 16.7 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 16–30 Sep 2024 | 3,600 | 32.3 | 21.0 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | | 1.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 18 Jun–2 Jul 2024 | 3,600 | 31.6 | 20.0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | | 2.5 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 11.6 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 22 Mar–9 Apr 2024 | 3,632 | 29.7 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | | – | 22.7 | 10.0 | 16.3 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 12–22 Dec 2023 | 3,600 | 43.3 | 14.4 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | | – | 9.1 | 6.3 | 28.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 11–21 Sep 2023 | 3,600 | 35.9 | 19.5 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | | – | 6.5 | 6.5 | 16.4 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 24.8 | 22.8 | 10.4 | | 0.1 | – | 8.1 | – | — | 31.0 | 2.0 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 12–23 Jun 2023 | 3,600 | 37.9 | 20.8 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | – | – | 9.1 | 4.5 | 17.1 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 7–21 Mar 2023 | 3,600 | 32.5 | 22.1 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | – | – | 4.0 | 9.5 | 10.4 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 21 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 3,600 | 32.8 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | – | – | 6.7 | 8.4 | 20.2 |
| CENTRA/CEA | 13–26 Sep 2022 | 3,600 | 36.6 | 14.9 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 | – | – | 11.2 | 6.9 | 21.7 |
| 2022 regional election | 19 Jun 2022 | — | 24.9 | 13.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | – | – | — | 41.6 | 11.0 |

### Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Moreno PP | Montero PSOE–A | Gavira Vox | Nieto PorA | García AA | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| SocioMétrica/El Español | 24–26 Feb 2025 | 1,500 | 45.9 | 28.1 | – | – | – | – | 26.0 | 17.8 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español | 24–26 Feb 2025 | 1,500 | 35.1 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 5.8 | – | 31.0 | 20.0 |

### Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Moreno PP | Montero PSOE–A | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| SocioMétrica/El Español | 24–26 Feb 2025 | 1,500 | 56.9 | 19.8 | – | 23.3 | 37.1 |