# Next Valencian regional election

The next Valencian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts will be up for election.
The 2023 election resulted in a coalition government being formed between the People's Party (PP) and Vox, with PP's Carlos Mazón becoming the new regional president. The coalition lasted until July 2024, when Vox broke up all of its regional coalition governments with the PP including the Valencian one. On 29 October 2024, catastrophic floods across the province of Valencia shook Mazón's tenure as the mounting death toll and the perceived ill-management of the crisis sparked widespread protests, causing his party to plummet in opinion polls.

## Overview
### Electoral system

The Corts Valencianes are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Corts is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province does not exceed three times that of any other).
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency is entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
| 40 | Valencia |
| 35 | Alicante |
| 24 | Castellón |

### Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree must be published in the DOGV no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 27 June 2027.
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts are to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

## Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Corts at the present time.
Current parliamentary composition :
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Legislators | Legislators |
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Seats | Total |
| | People's Parliamentary Group | | PP | 40 | 40 |
| | Socialist Parliamentary Group | | PSPV–PSOE | 31 | 31 |
| | Commitment Parliamentary Group | | Compromís | 15 | 15 |
| | Vox Valencian Courts Parliamentary Group | | Vox | 13 | 13 |

## Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. |
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Votes (%) | Seats | Gov. | Ref. |
| | PP | List People's Party (PP) | | Carlos Mazón | Conservatism Christian democracy | 35.75% | 40 | Y | |
| | PSPV–PSOE | List Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) | | Diana Morant | Social democracy | 28.70% | 31 | N | [13] [14] [15] |
| | Compromís | List Més–Compromís (Més) Valencian People's Initiative (IdPV) Greens Equo of the Valencian Country (VerdsEquo) | | Joan Baldoví | Valencian nationalism Eco-socialism Green politics | 14.51% | 15 | N | |
| | Vox | List Vox (Vox) | | José María Llanos | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism | 12.57% | 10 | N | |
| | Unides Podem–EUPV | List We Can (Podemos/Podem) United Left of the Valencian Country (EUPV) – Communist Party of the Valencian Country (PCPV) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) | | TBD | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | 3.57% | 0 | N | |

## Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

### Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | SALF | Lead |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 29 Jan–26 Feb 2025 | 1,450 | ? | 23.3 25 | 27.9 29 | 22.0 22 | 21.9 23 | 2.5 0 | – | – | 4.6 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo | 25 Nov–4 Dec 2024 | 1,202 | ? | 25.4 29/31 | 24.6 28/30 | 21.4 20/22 | 17.2 18/20 | 3.3 0 | – | 3.1 0 | 0.8 |
| Social Data/Grupo Viva | 25–27 Nov 2024 | 1,000 | ? | 25.8 28/31 | 25.9 27/30 | 19.0 20/21 | 17.9 19/22 | 2.3 0 | – | 3.8 0/3 | 0.1 |
| 40dB/Prisa | 22–25 Nov 2024 | 800 | ? | 30.2 | 29.3 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 3.6 | – | – | 0.9 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 2–16 Nov 2024 | 924 | ? | 24.2 25 | 30.0 32 | 21.4 22 | 19.9 20 | 2.0 0 | – | – | 5.8 |
| SyM Consulting/EPDA | 8–11 Nov 2024 | 2,267 | 59.5 | 30.9 33/34 | 27.5 31/32 | 16.6 16 | 16.4 17/18 | 3.5 0 | – | – | 3.4 |
| Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario | 7–8 Nov 2024 | 1,200 | 65.0 | 32.3 37 | 26.7 28 | 15.0 15 | 13.1 14 | 4.1 0 | – | 5.8 5 | 5.6 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 29 Oct–8 Nov 2024 | 776 | ? | 24.8 25 | 29.5 32 | 21.5 22 | 19.3 20 | 1.7 0 | – | – | 4.7 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 29 Sep–27 Oct 2024 | 1,450 | ? | 38.2 41 | 30.4 33 | 16.9 16 | 10.2 9 | 2.5 0 | – | – | 7.8 |
| Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario | 2–5 Oct 2024 | 1,200 | 63.0 | 42.2 47 | 28.8 32 | 11.7 12 | 9.1 8 | 3.0 0 | – | 3.3 0 | 13.4 |
| Lápiz Estratégico/Prensa Ibérica | 23–30 Sep 2024 | 751 | ? | 41.7 46 | 31.3 34 | 10.6 11 | 8.2 8 | 3.0 0 | 1.8 0 | – | 10.4 |
| SocioMétrica/PP | 23–27 Sep 2024 | 2,500 | ? | 40.1 44 | 29.3 32 | 11.8 11 | 11.2 12 | 3.1 0 | – | – | 10.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 13–17 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 68.1 | 39.8 44/45 | 29.3 32 | 13.2 13 | 9.8 9/10 | 2.5 0 | – | 3.1 0 | 10.5 |
| Data10/OKDiario | 12–13 Jul 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 40.7 46 | 30.5 33 | 11.4 11 | 10.2 9 | 3.4 0 | – | – | 10.2 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 52.0 | 35.9 (40) | 31.5 (34) | | 11.5 (12) | 3.0 (0) | 7.7 (8) | 5.8 (5) | 4.4 |
| Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario | 20–22 Mar 2024 | 1,200 | 63.0 | 41.1 46 | 26.8 28 | 16.2 16 | 10.2 9 | – | – | – | 14.3 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 29 Jan–26 Feb 2024 | 1,450 | ? | 35.8 38 | 30.2 33 | 16.7 16 | 12.1 12 | 1.5 0 | – | – | 5.6 |
| Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario | 15–21 Dec 2023 | 1,200 | 63.0 | 40.8 45 | 27.2 29 | 15.8 15 | 10.2 10 | – | – | – | 13.6 |
| SocioMétrica/PP | 10–13 Oct 2023 | 2,500 | ? | ? 43 | ? 33 | ? 11 | ? 12 | – | – | – | ? |
| Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario | 6–7 Oct 2023 | 1,200 | ? | 39.3 42 | 28.1 29 | 17.4 17 | 11.3 11 | – | – | – | 11.2 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 71.5 | 34.9 (36) | 32.1 (33) | | 15.6 (16) | | 15.2 (14) | – | 2.8 |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | — | 67.0 | 35.7 40 | 28.7 31 | 14.5 15 | 12.6 13 | 3.6 0 | – | – | 7.0 |

### Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | SALF | ? | N | Lead |
| Social Data/Grupo Viva | 25–27 Nov 2024 | 1,000 | 15.0 | 15.6 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 0.9 | – | 2.5 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 0.6 |
| 40dB/Prisa | 22–25 Nov 2024 | 800 | 16.8 | 19.9 | 12.5 | 16.3 | 4.0 | – | – | 13.2 | 9.9 | 3.1 |
| Lápiz Estratégico/Prensa Ibérica | 23–30 Sep 2024 | 751 | 30.2 | 23.4 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | – | 24.2 | 2.0 | 6.8 |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | — | 24.1 | 19.3 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 2.4 | – | – | — | 30.6 | 4.8 |

### Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | Other/ None | ? | Lead |
| Lápiz Estratégico/Prensa Ibérica | 23–30 Sep 2024 | 751 | 30.2 | 23.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 27.7 | 6.4 |

### Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | Other/ None | ? | Lead |
| Lápiz Estratégico/Prensa Ibérica | 23–30 Sep 2024 | 751 | 44.4 | 17.3 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 29.8 | 27.1 |

### Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Mazón PP | Puig PSPV | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| SocioMétrica/PP | 10–13 Oct 2023 | 2,500 | 53.0 | 47.0 | – | – | 6.0 |