# 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota

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The 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Dakota, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as other federal, state and local elections in North Dakota.
This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent senator Heidi Heitkamp ran for reelection to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was April 9, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018. U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer won the Republican primary to challenge Heitkamp, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
On November 6, 2018, Cramer defeated Heitkamp in the general election, becoming the first Republican to win this seat since 1958. This marked the first time since 1960 that Republicans held both of North Dakota's Senate seats. This also marked the first time since 1959 that North Dakota's congressional delegation was completely Republican.

## Background

Many observers cited Heitkamp as a vulnerable incumbent Democrat in 2018, as she balanced cooperation with her Democratic colleagues in the U.S. Senate with pleasing her constituents in deeply Republican North Dakota; Donald Trump won in North Dakota by about 36 points. The race was expected to be extremely competitive and some projected it would be the most expensive race in North Dakota history.

### Voter ID law and Native Americans disenfranchisement

On October 9, 2018, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld North Dakota's voter ID law, called HB 1369. This law requires voters to use an ID which lists a street address and doesn't allow PO boxes as valid addresses. However, many Native American reservations don't use a conventional address system and their inhabitants tend to use PO boxes instead, making a large share of the IDs used by Native Americans invalid. Although both Natives and non-Natives are affected, Native Americans are disproportionately more likely to be affected by HB 1369, and the law has been criticized for disenfranchising Native Americans. The Republican-held state government of North Dakota argued that the law was created to prevent voter fraud but has been accused of passing the law because Native Americans are likely to vote Democratic.
A group of seven Native American voters led by Richard Brakebill, a U.S. Navy veteran enrolled in the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, challenged HB 1369 as violating the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. In the case of Brakebill v. Jaeger, judge Daniel L. Hovland of the District Court of North Dakota ruled in April 2018 that large parts of HB 1369 were unconstitutional, including the prohibition on IDs with PO box addresses.
North Dakota secretary of state Alvin Jaeger appealed the ruling to the Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, and requested a stay on Hovland's ruling. The Eighth Circuit initially rejected Jaeger's stay request, with the primary elections in June 2018 not being affected by HB 1369, but revised its opinion in September 2018 and stayed Hovland's ruling. The plaintiffs filed a motion to the Supreme Court, requesting that they take up the case, but this motion was denied. Consequently, Hovland's ruling remained inoperative and HB 1369 was effective for the November 2018 general elections, with many people without the right ID being unable to vote.
Activists reacted to these suppression measures by educating voters, helping them get their identification cards updated, and giving them rides to the polls on election day. This backlash resulted in a Native American turnout that reached an unprecedented level in the election.

## Democratic-NPL primary

The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Heitkamp for re-election. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election, challenger Dustin Peyer did not challenge Heitkamp in the June 2018 primary.

### Candidates
#### Declared

* Heidi Heitkamp, incumbent U.S. senator

#### Withdrew

* Dustin Peyer, firefighter and candidate for the state senate in 2016

### Endorsements
#### Federal officials

* Joe Biden, former vice president
* Chuck Hagel, former Secretary of Defense (Republican)
* Tom Vilsack, former Secretary of Agriculture and governor of Iowa
* Mary Wakefield, former acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services

#### U.S. senators

* Kent Conrad, former U.S. senator (D-ND)
* Byron Dorgan, former U.S. senator (D-ND)
* Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator (D-NY)

#### U.S. representatives

* Earl Pomeroy, former U.S. representative (D-ND)

#### Local officials

* Michael Brown, mayor of Grand Forks
* Tim McLean, Casselton fire chief
* Arland Rasmussen, former West Fargo police chief

#### Individuals

* Grace Link, former First Lady of North Dakota
* Amy Schumer, actress
* Amy Siskind, activist and writer

#### Organizations

* American Federation of Government Employees
* End Citizens United
* Feminist Majority Political Action Committee
* J Street
* Los Angeles Women's Collective
* National Association of Home Builders
* National Border Patrol Council
* National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
* National Education Association
* National Farmers Union PAC
* North Dakota AFL-CIO
* North Dakota United

#### Newspapers

* The Bismarck Tribune

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic–NPL | Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) | 36,729 | 99.58% |
| | Democratic–NPL | Write-ins | 152 | 0.42% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 36,883 | 100.00% |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Kevin Cramer, U.S. representative
* Thomas O'Neill, former mayor of Niagara

#### Withdrew

* Tom Campbell, state senator (endorsed Kevin Cramer)
* Gary Emineth, businessman and former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party
* Paul Schaffner

#### Declined

* Rick Becker, state representative and candidate for governor in 2016
* Rick Berg, former U.S. representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012
* Tammy Miller, businesswoman
* Kathy Neset, member of the North Dakota State Board of Higher Education
* Ed Schafer, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of North Dakota
* Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota State Treasurer
* Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota Attorney General and candidate for governor in 2016

### Endorsements
#### U.S. executive branch officials

* George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States
* Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
U.S. senators
* John Hoeven, North Dakota
* David Perdue, Georgia
* Ben Sasse, Nebraska
U.S. governors
* Doug Burgum, North Dakota
N.D. state legislature officials
* Tom Campbell, state senator

#### Individuals

* Kimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality
* Clinton Romesha, Medal of Honor recipient

#### Organizations

* American Conservative Union
* Family Policy Alliance of North Dakota
* National Federation of Independent Business
* National Organization for Marriage
* National Right to Life
* North Dakota Farm Bureau
* North Dakota Right to Life
* NRA Political Victory Fund
* Republican Jewish Coalition
* Susan B. Anthony List

#### Newspapers

* The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead
* Minot Daily News

#### State senators

* Howard C. Anderson Jr.
* Bill Bowman
* Randy Burckhard
* David Clemens
* Dick Dever
* David Hogue
* Jerry Klein
* Curt Kreun
* Lonnie Laffen
* Scott Meyer
* Dave Oehlke
* Arne Osland
* Shawn Vedaa
* Terry Wanzek
* Rich Wardner (Majority Leader)

#### State representatives

* Bert Anderson
* Rich Becker
* Jake Blum
* Chuck Damschen
* Jim Grueneich
* Dennis Johnson
* Mary Johnson
* Terry Jones
* Keith Kempenich
* Dwight Kiefert
* Gary Kreidt
* Vernon R. Laning
* Andrew Marschall
* David Monson
* Emily O'Brien
* Bill Oliver
* Bernie Satrom
* Wayne Trottier
* Greg Westlind
* Denton Zuhke

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Becker | Rick Berg | Tom Campbell | Tammy Miller | Kathy Neset | Kelly Schmidt | Undecided |
| 1892 Polling (R-Campbell) | October 11–12, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 3% | 24% | 32% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 35% |
| 1892 Polling (R-Campbell) | May 30 – June 1, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 9% | 39% | 7% | – | – | – | 45% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Kevin Cramer | 61,529 | 87.73% |
| | Republican | Thomas O'Neill | 8,509 | 12.13% |
| | Republican | Write-ins | 95 | 0.14% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 70,133 | 100.00% |

## General election
### Debates

* Complete video of debate, October 18, 2018

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R (flip) | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Likely R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |

#### Notes

* ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 :
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Heidi Heitkamp (D) | $27,353,798 | $16,356,442 | $11,142,250 |
| Kevin Cramer (R) | $5,584,357 | $5,003,819 | $976,045 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Heidi Heitkamp (D-NPL) | Kevin Cramer (R) | Other | Undecided |
| FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 789 LV | ± 3.0% | 42% | 51% | 2% | 4% |
| FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 42% | 49% | 3% | 6% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | October 23–24, 2018 | 1,498 | ± 2.1% | 46% | 55% | – | – |
| Strategic Research Associates | October 12–19, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 56% | – | 4% |
| FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 704 LV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 53% | 2% | 3% |
| FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 801 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 50% | 3% | 5% |
| Strategic Research Associates | September 17–27, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
| FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 701 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 2% | 6% |
| FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 804 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 47% | 2% | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 457 | ± 7.5% | 47% | 52% | – | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | June 13–15, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | – | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing | February 21–24, 2018 | 385 | ± 5.0% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) | February 18–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 49% | – | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Heidi Heitkamp (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 821 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
| The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) | February 18–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 48% | 18% |
with Tom Campbell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Heidi Heitkamp (D) | Tom Campbell (R) | Undecided |
| 1892 Polling (R-Campbell) | October 11–12, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| 1892 Polling (R-Campbell) | May 30 – June 1, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.9% | 43% | 37% | 20% |
with Kelly Schmidt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Heidi Heitkamp (D) | Kelly Schmidt (R) | Undecided |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | September 10–11, 2017 | 406 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 48% | 9% |

### Results

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Kevin Cramer | 179,720 | 55.11% | +5.79% |
| | Democratic–NPL | Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) | 144,376 | 44.27% | −5.97% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 2,042 | 0.63% | +0.19% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 326,138 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Republican gain from Democratic–NPL | Republican gain from Democratic–NPL | Republican gain from Democratic–NPL | Republican gain from Democratic–NPL |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Eddy (largest city: New Rockford)
* Cavalier (largest city: Langdon)
* Divide (largest city: Crosby)
* Foster (largest city: Carrington)
* Griggs (largest city: Cooperstown)
* McHenry (largest city: Velva)
* Mountrail (largest city: New Town)
* Pembina (largest city: Cavalier)
* Ramsey (largest city: Devils Lake)
* Stutsman (largest city: Jamestown)
* Towner (largest city: Cando)
* Walsh (largest city: Grafton)