# 2016 Manitoba general election

The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016, to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Progressive Conservatives won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats.
The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.

## Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election. As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April. Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early. The legislature was dissolved and writs for the election were dropped on March 16, 2016.

## Campaign

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting; in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate. Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent.
The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate. Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change.

## Election summary

The Tories went into the election as heavy favourites, having led opinion polls for almost four years. They scored a near-sweep of rural southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.
Summary of the April 19, 2016 Manitoba Legislature election :
| Party | Party | Leader | Candidates | Seats | Seats | Seats | Seats | Popular vote | Popular vote | Popular vote |
| Party | Party | Leader | Candidates | 2011 | Dissol. | 2016 | +/- | Votes | % | % change |
| | Progressive Conservative | Brian Pallister | 57 | 19 | 19 | 40 | +21 | 232,215 | 53.10 | +9.39 |
| | New Democratic | Greg Selinger | 57 | 37 | 35 | 14 | -21 | 112,748 | 25.78 | −20.38 |
| | Liberal | Rana Bokhari | 51 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 62,973 | 14.40 | +6.88 |
| | Green | James Beddome | 30 | – | – | – | – | 22,188 | 5.07 | +2.55 |
| | Manitoba | Gary Marshall | 16 | – | – | – | – | 4,887 | 1.12 | n/a |
| | Communist | Darrell Rankin | 6 | – | – | – | – | 305 | 0.07 | +0.03 |
| | Independents | Independents | 4 | – | – | – | – | 2,032 | 0.46 | +0.41 |
| | Vacant | Vacant | Vacant | Vacant | 2 | | | | | |
| Total | Total | Total | 221 | 57 | 57 | 57 | | 437,348 | | |
Popular vote
PC
53.10%
New Democratic
25.78%
Liberal
14.40%
Green
5.07%
Others
1.65% :
Seats summary
PC
70.18%
New Democratic
24.56%
Liberal
5.26% :

### Summary results

Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2016 :
| Party | Party | 2011 | Gain from (loss to) | Gain from (loss to) | Gain from (loss to) | 2016 |
| Party | Party | 2011 | NDP | PC | Lib | 2016 |
| | New Democratic | 37 | | (21) | (2) | 14 |
| | Progressive Conservative | 19 | 21 | | | 40 |
| | Liberal | 1 | 2 | | | 3 |
| Total | Total | 57 | 23 | (21) | (2) | 57 |
Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – top 5 candidates from each riding, by party :
| Party | Candidates | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Progressive Conservative | 57 | 40 | 11 | 6 | – | – |
| New Democratic | 57 | 14 | 28 | 12 | 3 | – |
| Liberal | 51 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 6 | – |
| Green | 30 | – | 4 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Manitoba | 16 | – | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Independent | 4 | – | 1 | – | 3 | – |
Party candidates in 2nd place :
| Party in 1st place | Party in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Party in 2nd place | Party in 2nd place | Party in 2nd place | Party in 2nd place | Party in 2nd place | Total |
| Party in 1st place | Party in 1st place | PC | NDP | Lib | Grn | MB | Ind | Total |
| | Progressive Conservative | – | 26 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 40 |
| | New Democratic | 10 | – | 3 | 1 | – | | 14 |
| | Liberal | 1 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| Total | Total | 11 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 57 |
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results :
| Parties | Parties | Seats |
| █ Progressive Conservative | █ New Democratic | 36 |
| █ Progressive Conservative | █ Liberal | 9 |
| █ Progressive Conservative | █ Green | 3 |
| █ Progressive Conservative | █ Manitoba | 2 |
| █ Progressive Conservative | █ Independent | 1 |
| █ New Democratic | █ Liberal | 5 |
| █ New Democratic | █ Green | 1 |
| Total | Total | 57 |

## Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents :
| Party | Riding | Incumbent |
| NDP |
| NDP | Assiniboia | Jim Rondeau |
| NDP | Dauphin | Stan Struthers |
| NDP | Dawson Trail | Ron Lemieux |
| NDP | Fort Rouge | Jennifer Howard |
| NDP | Radisson | Bidhu Jha |
| NDP | St. Johns | Gord Mackintosh |
| NDP | St. Vital | Nancy Allan |
| NDP | Seine River | Theresa Oswald |
| NDP | Transcona | Daryl Reid |
| Progressive Conservative |
| Progressive Conservative | Agassiz | Stu Briese |
| Progressive Conservative | Riding Mountain | Leanne Rowat |
| Progressive Conservative | River East | Bonnie Mitchelson |

## Opinion polls

| Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | Other |
| Insights West | April 18, 2016 | | 28 | 53 | 10 | 7 | 1 |
| Insightrix Research | April 18, 2016 | | 22 | 49 | 19 | 9 | 1 |
| Forum Research | April 17, 2016 | | 21 | 52 | 18 | 9 | |
| Mainstreet Research | April 14, 2016 | | 26 | 55 | 11 | 9 | |
| Insights West | April 7, 2016 | | 26 | 49 | 17 | 7 | 1 |
| Insightrix Research | April 7, 2016 | | 24 | 49 | 22 | 5 | |
| Mainstreet Research | April 5, 2016 | | 24 | 50 | 17 | 9 | |
| Probe Research Inc | April 4, 2016 | | 28 | 46 | 20 | 6 | |
| Mainstreet Research | March 29, 2016 | | 23 | 45 | 24 | 7 | |
| Mainstreet Research | March 19, 2016 | | 24 | 44 | 24 | 7 | |
| Forum Research | March 13, 2016 | | 22 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 1 |
| Mainstreet Research | March 12, 2016 | | 27 | 43 | 24 | 7 | |
| Mainstreet Research | February 20, 2016 | | 21 | 50 | 23 | 6 | |
| Mainstreet Research | February 11, 2016 | | 21 | 51 | 20 | 7 | |
| Mainstreet Research | January 25, 2016 | | 20 | 52 | 20 | 9 | |
| Mainstreet Research | January 9, 2016 | | 23 | 44 | 27 | 6 | |
| Insightrix Research | December 22, 2015 | | 19 | 39 | 36 | 5 | 1 |
| Probe Research Inc | December 15, 2015 | | 22 | 43 | 29 | | 6 |
| Probe Research Inc | September 23, 2015 | | 25 | 45 | 24 | | 5 |
| Probe Research Inc | June 27, 2015 | | 29 | 46 | 19 | | 5 |
| Probe Research Inc | April 5, 2015 | | 29 | 44 | 20 | | 7 |
| Probe Research Inc | December 12, 2014 | HTML | 26 | 48 | 19 | | 7 |
| Mainstreet Research | November 3, 2014 | | 27 | 53 | 20 | | |
| Probe Research Inc | October 1, 2014 | | 30 | 42 | 20 | | 8 |
| Probe Research Inc | June 19, 2014 | HTML | 32 | 45 | 16 | | 7 |
| Probe Research Inc | March 28, 2014 | | 28 | 46 | 23 | | 3 |
| Insightrix Research | February 7, 2014 | | 24 | 49 | 18 | 9 | |
| Probe Research Inc | December 27, 2013 | | 26 | 48 | 20 | | 6 |
| Probe Research Inc | September 28, 2013 | | 29 | 43 | 20 | | 8 |
| Probe Research Inc | June 26, 2013 | | 28 | 46 | 17 | | 10 |
| Probe Research Inc | April 14, 2013 | | 35 | 42 | 15 | | 8 |
| Probe Research Inc | December 14, 2012 | | 39 | 43 | 11 | | 7 |
| Probe Research Inc | October 14, 2012 | | 45 | 38 | 11 | | 6 |
| Probe Research Inc | June 29, 2012 | | 44 | 40 | 13 | | 3 |
| Probe Research Inc | April 4, 2012 | | 40 | 45 | 10 | | 5 |
| 2011 election | October 4, 2011 | | 46.2 | 43.7 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | | | | | Other |
| Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | Other |

## Candidates by riding

* Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.

### Northern Manitoba

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Flin Flon | | Tom Lindsey 1,106 | | Angela Enright 954 | | Leslie Beck 948 | | | | Clarence Pettersen (Ind.) 359 | Clarence Pettersen |
| Kewatinook | | Eric Robinson 1,207 | | Edna Nabess 375 | | Judy Klassen 1,565 | | | | | Eric Robinson |
| Swan River | | Ron Kostyshyn 2,408 | | Rick Wowchuk 4,081 | | Shayne Lynxleg 483 | | Dan Soprovich 296 | | | Ron Kostyshyn |
| The Pas | | Amanda Lathlin 1,976 | | Doug Lauvstad 1,765 | | Tyler Duncan 586 | | Patrick Wood 217 | | | Amanda Lathlin |
| Thompson | | Steve Ashton 1,527 | | Kelly Bindle 1,712 | | Inez Vystrcil-Spence 638 | | | | | Steve Ashton |

### Westman/Parkland

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Agassiz | | Courtney Lucas 450 | | Eileen Clarke 5,228 | | | | Robert Smith 409 | | Damian Dempsey (Ind.) 910 | Stu Briese |
| Arthur-Virden | | Lorne Topolniski 600 | | Doyle Piwniuk 6,006 | | | | | | Frank Godon (Manitoba) 846 | Doyle Piwniuk |
| Brandon East | | Drew Caldwell 2,534 | | Len Isleifson 3,669 | | Vanessa Hamilton 830 | | | | | Drew Caldwell |
| Brandon West | | Linda Ross 1,884 | | Reg Helwer 5,624 | | William Moore 631 | | | | | Reg Helwer |
| Dauphin | | Darcy Scheller 1,899 | | Brad Michaleski 4,795 | | Garry Gurke 505 | | Kate Storey 595 | | Darrell Inkster (Manitoba) 168 | Stan Struthers |
| Riding Mountain | | Béla Gyarmati 601 | | Greg Nesbitt 5,311 | | Jordan Fleury 1,028 | | Mark Olenick 779 | | | Leanne Rowat |
| Spruce Woods | | Amanda Chmelyk 665 | | Cliff Cullen 5,210 | | Jaron Hart 512 | | | | Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba) 738 | Cliff Cullen |

### Central Manitoba

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Emerson | | Alanna Jones 432 | | Cliff Graydon 4,943 | | Loren Braul 1,423 | | | | | Cliff Graydon |
| Gimli | | Armand Bélanger 2,579 | | Jeff Wharton 5,614 | | | | Dwight Harfield 843 | | Ed Paquette (Manitoba) 239 | vacant |
| Interlake | | Tom Nevakshonoff 1,428 | | Derek Johnson 3,685 | | Jamal Abas 2,068 | | | | | Tom Nevakshonoff |
| Lakeside | | Matt Austman 1,369 | | Ralph Eichler 6,077 | | | | | | | Ralph Eichler |
| Midland | | Jacqueline Theroux 714 | | Blaine Pedersen 6,168 | | Julia Sisler 523 | | Stacey O’Neill 797 | | | Blaine Pedersen |
| Morden-Winkler | | Elizabeth Lynch 215 | | Cameron Friesen 6,598 | | Benjamin Bawdon 279 | | Mike Urichuk 667 | | | Cameron Friesen |
| Morris | | Mohamed Alli 840 | | Shannon Martin 6,980 | | John Falk 1,430 | | | | | Shannon Martin |
| Portage la Prairie | | Alex MacDonald 697 | | Ian Wishart 4,635 | | Stephen Prince 1,238 | | | | | Ian Wishart |

### Eastman

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Dawson Trail | | Roxane Dupuis 1,678 | | Bob Lagassé 4,430 | | Terry Hayward 1,652 | | | | David Sutherland (Manitoba) 516 | Ron Lemieux |
| Lac du Bonnet | | Wendy Sol 1,647 | | Wayne Ewasko 5,666 | | | | | | | Wayne Ewasko |
| La Verendrye | | Echo Asher 705 | | Dennis Smook 5,262 | | Bill Paulishyn 696 | | Janine Gibson 724 | | | Dennis Smook |
| Steinbach | | Kathleen McCallum 387 | | Kelvin Goertzen 6,982 | | Dakota Young-Brown 461 | | | | | Kelvin Goertzen |
| St. Paul | | Andrew Podolecki 1,757 | | Ron Schuler 7,091 | | Pete Sanderson 1,055 | | | | | Ron Schuler |
| Selkirk | | Greg Dewar 2,366 | | Alan Lagimodiere 4,686 | | Stefan Jones 1,390 | | | | | Greg Dewar |

### Northwest Winnipeg

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Burrows | | Melanie Wight 1,775 | | Rae Wagner 1,014 | | Cindy Lamoureux 2,641 | | Garrett Bodnaryk 216 | | Tony Petrowski (Communist) 28 | Melanie Wight |
| Kildonan | | Dave Chomiak 3,065 | | Nic Curry 3,694 | | Navdeep Khangura 974 | | Steven Stairs 456 | | Gary Marshall (Manitoba) 133 | Dave Chomiak |
| Point Douglas | | Kevin Chief 2,839 | | Marsha Street 811 | | Althea Guiboche 956 | | Alberteen Spence 247 | | Frank Komarniski (Communist) 58 | Kevin Chief |
| St. Johns | | Nahanni Fontaine 2,358 | | Barbara Judt 1,869 | | Noel Bernier 1,465 | | Elizabeth Puchailo 671 | | | Gord Mackintosh |
| The Maples | | Mohinder Saran 2,832 | | Kaur Sidhu 2,705 | | Harbans Singh Brar 1,695 | | John Redekopp 582 | | | Mohinder Saran |
| Tyndall Park | | Ted Marcelino 2,139 | | Naseer Warraich 1,306 | | Aida Champagne 1,656 | | Shane Neustaeter 391 | | | Ted Marcelino |

### Northeast Winnipeg

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Concordia | | Matt Wiebe 2,761 | | Andrew Frank 2,483 | | Donovan Martin 642 | | | | Terry Scott (Manitoba) 254 | Matt Wiebe |
| Elmwood | | Jim Maloway 2,993 | | Sarah Langevin 2,886 | | | | | | Albert Ratt (Manitoba) 579 | Jim Maloway |
| Radisson | | Preet Singh 2,945 | | James Teitsma 4,635 | | Scott Newman 1,593 | | | | | Bidhu Jha |
| River East | | Jody Gillis 2,435 | | Cathy Cox 6,154 | | Piero Scaramuzzi 776 | | | | | Bonnie Mitchelson |
| Rossmere | | Erna Braun 3,389 | | Andrew Micklefield 5,303 | | Malli Aulakh 838 | | | | William Sullivan (Manitoba) 427 | Erna Braun |
| St. Boniface | | Greg Selinger 3,624 | | Mamadou Ka 2,211 | | Alain Landry 1,663 | | Signe Knutson 1,048 | | | Greg Selinger |
| Transcona | | Barb Burkowski 2,281 | | Blair Yakimoski 3,948 | | Chad Panting 1,465 | | | | Darrell Rankin (Communist) 68 Ajit Kumar (Manitoba) 233 | Daryl Reid |

### West Winnipeg

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Assiniboia | | Joseph McKellep 2,196 | | Steven Fletcher 3,450 | | Ian McCausland 1,631 | | Ileana Ohlsson 580 | | | Jim Rondeau |
| Charleswood | | Janna Barkman 1,168 | | Myrna Driedger 5,298 | | Paul Brault 1,187 | | Kevin Nichols 1,080 | | | Myrna Driedger |
| Kirkfield Park | | Sharon Blady 3,075 | | Scott Fielding 5,457 | | Kelly Nord 889 | | Lisa Omand 784 | | | Sharon Blady |
| St. James | | Deanne Crothers 2,723 | | Scott Johnston 3,532 | | Michelle Finley 1,150 | | Jeff Buhse 850 | | Brad Gross (Manitoba) 137 | Deanne Crothers |
| Tuxedo | | Zach Fleisher 1,312 | | Heather Stefanson 4,986 | | Michael Lazar 1,251 | | Bob Krul 976 | | | Heather Stefanson |

### Central Winnipeg

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Fort Garry-Riverview | | James Allum 3,450 | | Jeannette Montufar 3,149 | | Johanna Wood 807 | | James Beddome 1,711 | | | James Allum |
| Fort Rouge | | Wab Kinew 3,360 | | Audrey Gordon 2,751 | | Rana Bokhari 1,792 | | Grant Sharp 983 | | Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba) 175 Paula Ducharme (Communist) 47 | Jennifer Howard |
| Logan | | Flor Marcelino 2,020 | | Allie Szarkiewicz 997 | | Peter Koroma 1,457 | | Jitendradas Loves-Life 397 | | Joe Chan (Manitoba) 185 Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist) 63 | Flor Marcelino |
| Minto | | Andrew Swan 2,954 | | Belinda Squance 1,016 | | Demetre Balaktsis 723 | | Martha Jo Willard 410 | | Andrew Taylor (Communist) 41 Virgil Gil (Manitoba) 51 Don Woodstock (Ind.) 589 | Andrew Swan |
| River Heights | | Shafagh Daneshfar 591 | | Tracey Maconachie 3,485 | | Jon Gerrard 5,230 | | Michael Cardillo 771 | | | Jon Gerrard |
| Wolseley | | Rob Altemeyer 3,037 | | Raquel Dancho 945 | | Shandi Strong 653 | | David Nickarz 2,645 | | Wayne Sturby (Manitoba) 79 | Rob Altemeyer |

### South Winnipeg

| Electoral district | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral district | NDP | NDP | PC | PC | Liberal | Liberal | Green | Green | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Fort Richmond | | Kerri Irvin-Ross 2,274 | | Sarah Guillemard 2,879 | | Kyra Wilson 814 | | Cameron Proulx 540 | | | Kerri Irvin-Ross |
| Fort Whyte | | George Wong 1,718 | | Brian Pallister 6,775 | | Peter Bastians 1,205 | | Carli Runions 731 | | Daryl Newis (Manitoba) 127 | Brian Pallister |
| Riel | | Christine Melnick 3,053 | | Rochelle Squires 5,024 | | Neil Johnston 1,627 | | | | | Christine Melnick |
| Seine River | | Lise Pinkos 2,343 | | Janice Morley-Lecomte 5,396 | | Peter Chura 2,388 | | | | | Theresa Oswald |
| Southdale | | Dashi Zargani 2,460 | | Andrew Smith 6,663 | | Ryan Colyer 1,318 | | | | | vacant |
| St. Norbert | | Dave Gaudreau 3,062 | | Jon Reyes 4,673 | | James Bloomfield 1,251 | | | | Narinder Kaur Johar (Ind.) 174 | Dave Gaudreau |
| St. Vital | | Jamie Moses 2,831 | | Colleen Mayer 3,229 | | Bryan Van Wilgenburg 1,296 | | Kelly Whelan-Enns 791 | | | Nancy Allan |