# Next New Zealand general election

The next New Zealand general election will be held after the current 54th New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 14 October 2023. The last possible date for the election to be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.
Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members are elected from single-member electorates and 49 members are elected from closed party lists.
After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National–ACT–NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.

## Electoral system

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.
The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

### Electorate boundaries

Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census and the Electoral (Māori Electoral Option) Legislation Act, which allows Māori to switch between the General Roll and Māori Roll at any time and as often as they like excluding during certain pre-election periods. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census.
The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16, with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates.
On 25 October 2024, Statistics New Zealand announced that population changes necessitated reducing the number of North Island general electorates by one, bringing the total number of North Island general electorates to 48 and the overall number of electorates to 71 (increasing the number of list seats available by one). Statistics New Zealand also announced that 17 North Island electorates, one South Island electorate (Invercargill), and one Māori electorate (Ikaroa-Rāwhiti) were below 5% tolerance, while seven North Island electorates and one South Island electorate (Selwyn) were above 5% tolerance.

### Election date

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023.
The Governor General must issue a writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament will expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which will be Tuesday, 5 January 2027. Because polling day must be a Saturday and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

## Campaign
### Parties

Since the 2023 election, five parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024, Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024, New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024, Democratic Alliance on 27 November 2024, and the New Nation Party on 29 January 2025.
| Party | Party | Leader(s) | Founded | Ideology | 2023 election result | 2023 election result | Current seats | Status |
| Party | Party | Leader(s) | Founded | Ideology | % party vote | seats | Current seats | Status |
| | National | Christopher Luxon | 1936 | Conservatism Liberalism | 38.08% | 48 / 123 | 49 / 123 | Coalition |
| | Labour | Chris Hipkins | 1916 | Social democracy | 26.92% | 34 / 123 | 34 / 123 | Opposition |
| | Green | Marama Davidson Chlöe Swarbrick | 1990 | Green politics Social democracy | 11.61% | 15 / 123 | 15 / 123 | Opposition |
| | ACT | David Seymour | 1994 | Classical liberalism Right-libertarianism | 8.64% | 11 / 123 | 11 / 123 | Coalition |
| | NZ First | Winston Peters | 1993 | Nationalism Social conservatism | 6.09% | 8 / 123 | 8 / 123 | Coalition |
| | Te Pāti Māori | Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Rawiri Waititi | 2004 | Māori rights Tino rangatiratanga | 3.08% | 6 / 123 | 6 / 123 | Opposition |
| | Opportunities | | 2016 | Radical centrism | 2.22% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Not in Parliament |
| | NewZeal | Alfred Ngaro | 2020 | Social conservatism | 0.56% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Not in Parliament |
| | Legalise Cannabis | Maki Herbert Michael Appleby | 1996 | Cannabis legalisation | 0.45% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Not in Parliament |
| | Freedoms NZ | Brian Tamaki Sue Grey | 2022 | Right-wing populism | 0.33% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Not in Parliament |
| | Animal Justice | Anna Rippon Robert McNeil | 2023 | Animal rights | 0.17% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Not in Parliament |
| | New Conservatives | Helen Houghton | 2011 | Conservatism Traditionalism | 0.15% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Not in Parliament |
| | Women's Rights | Jill Ovens Chimene Del La Veras | 2023 | Gender-critical feminism | 0.08% | 0 / 123 | 0 / 123 | Not in Parliament |

## Opinion polling
### Seat projections

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.
| Source | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Likely government formation |
| Source | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | Likely government formation |
| 1 News–Verian 3–7 Feb 2025 poll | 43 | 42 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–4 Feb 2025 poll | 39 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills 7–27 Jan 2025 poll | 40 | 42 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Roy Morgan 2–26 Jan 2025 poll | 40 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 9–13 Jan 2025 poll | 38 | 39 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 poll | 39 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 1 News–Verian 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 poll | 46 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–3 Dec 2024 poll | 44 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT (61) |
| Labour–Talbot Mills 22–28 Nov 2024 poll | 39 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| The Post–Freshwater Strategy 26–27 Nov 2024 poll | 42 | 39 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 poll | 37 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 6–10 Nov 2024 poll | 48 | 39 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Nov 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll | 39 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian 5–9 Oct 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 3–7 Oct 2024 poll | 44 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll | 47 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 8–10 Sep 2024 poll | 48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Sep 2024 poll | 46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll | 45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 1 News–Verian 10–14 Aug 2024 poll | 49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll | 41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 4–8 Jul 2024 poll | 47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 15–19 Jun 2024 poll | 47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 4–6 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll | 42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 5–7 May 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills 30 Apr 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 20–24 Apr 2024 poll | 48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll | 45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–4 Apr 2024 poll | 47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll | 45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Feb 2024 poll | 47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–7 Feb 2024 poll | 49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
| Roy Morgan 8–28 Jan 2024 poll | 49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Roy Morgan Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Curia 3–5 Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | National–NZ First–ACT (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–6 Nov 2023 poll | 46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result 14 Oct 2023 | 48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
    * indicates an overhang seat
* ↑ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

## Potential four-year-term referendum

A potential four-year-term referendum might be held during the election.