# 2025 Werribee state by-election

The 2025 Werribee state by-election was held on 8 February 2025 to elect the member for Werribee in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, following the resignation of Labor MP Tim Pallas. It took place on the same day as a by-election for Prahran. On 19 February the Victorian Electoral Commission declared Labor candidate John Lister as the elected member for Werribee.

## Background
### Seat details

Werribee is located in the rapidly growing outer south west suburbs of Melbourne, covering the suburbs of Werribee, Wyndham Vale, and the rural areas surrounding these suburbs to the south and west. The seat, along with the electoral districts of Tarneit and Lara which covered the seat's area between 2002 and 2014, has been continuously held by Labor since 1979.
At the time of the 2021 Australian census, the seat had a median weekly personal income of $784, lower than the state ($803) and national ($805) averages. Less than a quarter of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher (24.1%), a figure lower than the state (29.2%) and national (26.3%) figures, and the median age of residents (34) is slightly younger than both the state and national rates (38).

### 2022 election results

2022 Victorian state election: Werribee :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Labor | Tim Pallas | 17,512 | 45.4 | −0.6 |
| | Liberal | Mia Shaw | 9,779 | 25.3 | +8.7 |
| | Greens | Jack Boddeke | 2,613 | 6.8 | +0.3 |
| | Independent | Paul Hopper | 2,278 | 5.9 | +5.9 |
| | Victorian Socialists | Sue Munro | 1,391 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| | Family First | Matthew Emerson | 964 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| | Democratic Labour | Kathryn Breakwell | 767 | 2.0 | −1.2 |
| | Animal Justice | Josh Segrave | 730 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| | Justice | Patricia Anne Wicks | 709 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| | Freedom | Mark Strother | 663 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| | Transport Matters | Trevor Russell Collins | 360 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| | New Democrats | Prashant Tandon | 319 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| | Health Australia | Karen Hogan | 260 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| | Independent | Patrizia Barcatta | 213 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| | Independent | Heni Cazlynn Kwan | 45 | 0.1 | +0.1 |
| Total formal votes | Total formal votes | Total formal votes | 38,603 | 90.3 | −2.9 |
| Informal votes | Informal votes | Informal votes | 4,156 | 9.7 | +2.9 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 42,759 | 85.6 | +4.5 |
| Two-party-preferred result ||||||
| | Labor | Tim Pallas | 23,517 | 60.9 | −2.4 |
| | Liberal | Mia Shaw | 15,086 | 39.1 | +2.4 |
| | Labor hold | Labor hold | Swing | −2.4 | |

## Key events

* 6 January 2025 − Tim Pallas resigns
* 13 January 2025 − Close of electoral roll
* 23 January 2025 – Candidate nominations close for registered parties
* 24 January 2025 – Candidate nominations close for independents
* 29 January 2025 − Early voting begins
* 8 February 2025 − Polling day

## Candidates

Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.
| Party | Candidate | Background |
| Greens | Rifai A. Raheem | Community activist and union organiser |
| Liberal | Steve Murphy | Real estate agent and former police officer |
| Family First | Matt Emerson | Community volunteer and small business IT professional |
| Legalise Cannabis | Xavier Menta | Horticulturist |
| Independent | Munish Joshi | |
| Victorian Socialists | Sue Munro | Community activist and agency-enrolled nurse |
| Animal Justice | Shohre Mansouri Jajaee | Software engineer and charity worker |
| Independent | Kodei Mulcahy | Community activist and childcare educator |
| Independent | Aidan McLindon | Mayor of Whittlesea and former Queensland MP |
| Independent | Paul Hopper | Candidate for Werribee in 2022 and co-founder of unregistered West Party |
| Labor | John Lister | Teacher and CFA volunteer firefighter |
| Independent | Aijaz Moinuddin | Founder of unregistered United People's Party |

### Labor

Labor announced on 23 December 2024 that John Lister, a local school teacher and Country Fire Authority (CFA) volunteer firefighter, would be its candidate for the by-election.

### Liberal

On 22 December 2024, the Liberal Party publicly confirmed that they indicated to contest the by-election. On 11 January 2025, the party announced its candidate would be Steve Murphy, a real estate agent and former police officer who resides in Essendon West.

### Others

The Victorian Greens announced on 10 January 2025 that Rifai A. Raheem, a community activist and union organiser, would be its candidate.

## How-to-vote cards

Candidates can provide how-to-vote cards with recommendations for voters on how to preference other parties. Kodei Mulcahy and Paul Hopper did not recommend any preferences, while Aidan McLindon only suggested preferencing Hopper second. Additionally, the Victorian Trades Hall Council registered a how-to-vote card, calling for Liberal candidate Steve Murphy to be preferenced last.
| Candidate | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | How-to-vote card (read column top down) |
| Candidate | GRN | LIB | FFP | LCV | Jos. | VS | AJP | Mul. | McL. | Hop. | ALP | Moi. |
| | Rifai A. Raheem (GRN) | 1 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 4 | | | | 2 | 7 |
| | Steve Murphy (LIB) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 9 | | | | 8 | 11 |
| | Matt Emerson (FFP) | 12 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 11 | | | | 9 | 4 |
| | Xavier Menta (LCV) | 4 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 | | | | 3 | 8 |
| | Munish Joshi (Ind.) | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 6 | | | | 10 | 3 |
| | Sue Munro (VS) | 2 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3 | | | | 5 | 6 |
| | Shohre Mansouri Jajaee (AJP) | 5 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | | | | 4 | 5 |
| | Kodei Mulcahy (Ind.) | 11 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 1 | | | 12 | 12 |
| | Aidan McLindon (Ind.) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 10 | | 1 | | 11 | 9 |
| | Paul Hopper (Ind.) | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 8 | | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| | John Lister (ALP) | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | | | | 1 | 10 |
| | Moinuddin (Ind.) | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | | | | 7 | 1 |

## Results

2025 Werribee state by-election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Liberal | Steve Murphy | 12,207 | 28.98 | +3.65 |
| | Labor | John Lister | 12,168 | 28.89 | −16.47 |
| | Independent | Paul Hopper | 6,134 | 14.56 | +8.66 |
| | Greens | Rifai A. Raheem | 3,190 | 7.57 | +0.80 |
| | Victorian Socialists | Sue Munro | 3,008 | 7.14 | +3.54 |
| | Legalise Cannabis | Xavier Menta | 2,316 | 5.50 | +5.50 |
| | Family First | Matt Emerson | 1,827 | 4.34 | +1.84 |
| | Animal Justice | Shohre Mansouri Jajaee | 401 | 0.95 | −0.94 |
| | Independent | Munish Joshi | 352 | 0.84 | +0.84 |
| | Independent | Aidan McLindon | 270 | 0.64 | +0.64 |
| | Independent | Aijaz Moinuddin | 164 | 0.39 | +0.39 |
| | Independent | Kodei Mulcahy | 80 | 0.19 | +0.19 |
| Total formal votes | Total formal votes | Total formal votes | 42,117 | 93.34 | +3.06 |
| Informal votes | Informal votes | Informal votes | 3,003 | 6.66 | −3.06 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 45,120 | 79.91 | −5.67 |
| Two-party-preferred result ||||||
| | Labor | John Lister | 21,405 | 50.82 | −10.10 |
| | Liberal | Steve Murphy | 20,712 | 49.18 | +10.10 |
| | Labor hold | Labor hold | Swing | −10.10 | |