# 2010 Maine gubernatorial election

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The 2010 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of Maine. Incumbent Democratic governor John Baldacci was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term. Primary elections took place on June 8, 2010. The candidates who appeared on the November ballot were (in alphabetical order by last name): Eliot Cutler (Independent), Paul LePage (Republican), Libby Mitchell (Democratic), Shawn Moody (Independent), and Kevin Scott (Independent).
With 94% of precincts reporting on the day after the election, the Bangor Daily News declared LePage the winner, carrying 38.1% of the votes. Cutler was in second place with 36.7% of the votes (less than 7,500 votes behind LePage), while Mitchell was a distant third with 19%. Moody and Scott had 5% and 1%, respectively. Two days after the election, with 99% of precincts reporting, LePage's lead over Cutler had widened to more than 10,000 votes. This election was the first since 1990 that Maine elected a Republican governor.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### On ballot

* Patrick K. McGowan, former State Conservation Commissioner
* Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell, President of the Maine Senate and candidate for U. S. Senate in 1984
* Steven Rowe, former Maine Attorney General and former state representative
* Rosa Scarcelli, business owner

#### Write-in

* Donna Dion, former Mayor of Biddeford. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures, but continued her campaign in the primary as a write-in candidate.

#### Withdrawn

* Dawn Hill, State Representative. Hill withdrew from the race on January 1, 2010, citing the crowded field of candidates.
* John G. Richardson, former Commissioner of Economic and Community Development and former Speaker of the House. Richardson withdrew from the race on April 26 amid allegations that some of his campaign workers had not followed proper procedures for collecting donations to qualify him for Maine Clean Election funding. The primary ballots had already been printed before Richardson withdrew from the race, so Richardson's name appeared on the ballot even though he was no longer a candidate.
* Peter Truman (also known as Peter Throumoulos), former state representative and convicted forger. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.

#### Declined

* Brian Bolduc, state representative
* Tom Allen, former U.S. Representative

### Polling

| Poll source | Dates administered | Mitchell | Rowe | Scarcelli | McGowan | Undecided |
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | May 21–29, 2010 | 13.3% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 61.7% |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell | 42,328 | 34.4 |
| | Democratic | G. Steven Rowe | 27,923 | 22.7 |
| | Democratic | Rosa Scarcelli | 26,444 | 21.5 |
| | Democratic | Patrick K. McGowan | 24,392 | 19.8 |
| | Democratic | John Richardson | 1,604 | 1.3 |
| | Democratic | Write-in | 236 | 0.3 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 122,927 | 100 |
At 11:32 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Libby Mitchell the winner of the Democratic primary.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### On ballot

* Steve Abbott, former chief of staff for Senator Susan Collins
* William Beardsley, former president of Husson University
* Matt Jacobson, president of Maine & Company, a private business attraction organization; former President of the St. Lawrence & Atlantic Railroad
* Paul LePage, Mayor of Waterville and general manager of Marden's Surplus & Salvage store chain
* Peter Mills, State Senator and candidate for governor in 2006
* Les Otten, founder of American Skiing Company and former Boston Red Sox co-owner
* Bruce Poliquin, business owner/manager and economist

#### Declined

* Peter Cianchette, United States Ambassador to Costa Rica and 2002 Republican nominee for governor
* Kevin Raye, State Senate Minority Leader
* Josh Tardy, State House Minority Leader

### Polling

| Poll source | Dates administered | Otten | LePage | Mills | Abbott | Beardsley | Poliquin | Jacobson | Undecided |
| MECPO | May 22-June 2, 2010 | 17.0% | 10.7% | 22.1% | 13.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 24.0% |
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | May 21–29, 2010 | 17.0% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 47.0% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Paul LePage | 49,126 | 37.4 |
| | Republican | Les Otten | 22,945 | 17.4 |
| | Republican | Peter Mills | 19,271 | 14.7 |
| | Republican | Steve Abbott | 17,209 | 13.1 |
| | Republican | William "Bill" Beardsley | 12,061 | 9.2 |
| | Republican | Bruce Poliquin | 6,471 | 4.9 |
| | Republican | Matt Jacobson | 4,324 | 3.3 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 131,407 | 100 |
At 11:19 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Paul LePage the winner of the GOP primary.

## Independents
### Candidates on the ballot

* Eliot Cutler, attorney, former staff member for U.S. Senator Edmund Muskie, and former adviser to President Jimmy Carter
* Shawn Moody, business owner
* Kevin L. Scott, business owner

### Write-in candidates

* John Jenkins, former state senator, former mayor of both Auburn and Lewiston, and a 2002 gubernatorial candidate. Jenkins, who won his most recent mayoral campaign by write-in, declared he would run for Governor of Maine if 5,000 people followed his Facebook fan page within 45 days.
* Beverly Cooper-Pete. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures, but continued her campaign as a write-in candidate.

### Disqualified candidates

* Alex Hammer, business owner and self-published author. Did not appear on the ballot due to not meeting the deadline for turning in petition signatures. Hammer attempted to turn in some of the signatures electronically, but the Secretary of State ruled that such methods were not allowed. Hammer filed suit to appear on the ballot in Penobscot County Superior Court on June 28, 2010. On September 28, 2010, the judge upheld the Secretary of State's decision.

### Withdrawn

* Samme Bailey. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.
* Augustus Edgerton. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.
* Michael Heath, former leader of the Christian Civic League of Maine (now known as the Maine Family Policy Council). Withdrew from the race due to lack of petition signatures.
* John Whitcomb. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.

## Maine Green Independent Party

The Maine Green Independent Party did not have a gubernatorial candidate on the ballot, as no candidate collected required number of signatures.

### Withdrawn

* Lynne Williams, attorney and former state chair of the Maine Green Independent Party. On March 15, 2010, Lynne Williams announced her withdrawal from the campaign, citing a lack of clean elections funds and qualifying signatures.
* Patrick Quinlan, political activist, author, and lone legislative aide of Maine Green Independent Party caucus in state House of Representatives for 2004 and 2005; former campaign manager and consultant for Green state representative John Eder

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Cook Political Report | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg | Tilt R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Paul LePage (R) | Libby Mitchell (D) | Eliot Cutler (I) | Shawn Moody (I) | Kevin Scott (I) | Undecided |
| MPRC/Down East Magazine | October 28–30, 2010 | 546 | ± 4.19% | 39% | 24% | 29% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| Critical Insights/MaineToday Media | October 27–28, 2010 | 621 | ± 4% | 40% | 21% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 11% |
| Pan Atlantic SMS | October 25–28, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 38.6% | 21.8% | 30.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 7.3% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 26–28, 2010 | 1,812 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 24% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 26% | 26% | - | - | 5% |
| Critical Insights | October 13–17, 2010 | 600 | ± 4% | 32% | 20% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 21% |
| Pan Atlantic SMS | October 11–15, 2010 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 32.9% | 28.0% | 14.0% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 20.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 32% | 21% | * | * | 6% |
| Critical Insights/MaineToday Media | October 10–11, 2010 | 605 | ± 4% | 32% | 26% | 11% | 5 | 1 | 26% |
| Pine Tree Politics/Maine Center for Public Opinion | October 4–7, 2010 | 679 | ± 3.76% | 29.6% | 28.7% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 24.1% |
| Critical Insights/MaineToday Media | September 27, 2010 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 29% | 30% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 26% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 20, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 27% | 14% | * | * | 10% |
| Critical Insights/MaineToday Media | September 13, 2010 | 603 | ± 4% | 38% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 2–6, 2010 | 1,468 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 29% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 30% | 16% | * | * | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 14, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 31% | 15% | * | * | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 36% | 7% | * | * | 14% |
* Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, two Independent candidates who appeared on the ballot, were not offered as choices in the Rasmussen polls.

### Results

2010 Gubernatorial Election, Maine :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Paul LePage | 218,065 | 37.6% | +7.39% |
| | Independent | Eliot Cutler | 208,270 | 35.9% | — |
| | Democratic | Libby Mitchell | 109,387 | 18.8% | −19.31% |
| | Independent | Shawn Moody | 28,756 | 5.0% | — |
| | Independent | Kevin Scott | 5,664 | 1.0% | |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 9,795 | 1.7% | −6.2 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 580,538 | | +29,673 |
| | Republican gain from Democratic | Republican gain from Democratic | Swing | | |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Androscoggin (largest city: Lewiston)
* Aroostook (largest city: Presque Isle)
* Kennebec (largest city: Augusta)
* Lincoln (Largest city: Waldoboro)
* Oxford (largest town: Rumford)
* Penobscot (largest city: Bangor)
* Waldo (Largest city: Belfast)
* York (largest town:Biddeford)

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

* Cumberland (largest municipality: Portland)
* Hancock (largest municipality: Ellsworth)
* Knox (largest municipality: Rockland)
* Sagadahoc (largest town:Bath)