# 2024 Tuxedo provincial by-election

The 2024 Tuxedo provincial by-election was held on June 18.
In an historic result, the NDP won the election with 49% to the PC's 42%, the first time the party has ever won the seat since its creation in 1981, and the first time a centre-left party won the area since 1945 when the NDP's predecessor, the CCF, won the Assiniboia constituency. The third-place Liberal Party's 7% vote share was the worst result the party ever received in the constituency.

## Background

The riding was vacant after former Premier Heather Stefanson resigned from the Legislative Assembly on May 6, 2024.
On May 20, Premier Wab Kinew announced that a by-election would be held in Tuxedo on June 18.

## Constituency

Tuxedo is an affluent, traditionally safe Tory seat in southwest Winnipeg. In addition to Stefanson, it was the riding of former premier Gary Filmon. The riding has voted for the Progressive Conservatives in every election since its creation in 1981. Despite the riding being considered safe, the NDP came within 268 votes of picking it up in the 2023 general election.

## Candidates
### Progressive Conservative

A nomination meeting to determine the PC candidate was held on May 23 with family lawyer Lawrence Pinsky winning the contested race. The other candidates seeking the nomination were Shannon Martin (MLA for McPhillips, 2019–2023 and Morris, 2014–2019) and Lori Shenkarow (real estate agent).
Kevin Klein (MLA for Kirkfield Park, 2022–2023 and Winnipeg City Councillor for Charleswood-Tuxedo-Westwood, 2018–2022) was also considered a potential candidate, however, he ended up not running.

### New Democratic

On May 20, the NDP announced that they had nominated Carla Compton as the candidate for the by-election. She works as a registered nurse and was the Tuxedo candidate for the party in the 2019 election.

### Liberal

On May 21, The Liberals announced that their candidate would be Jamie Pfau, president of the Manitoba Foster Parent Association.
Deputy leader of the party, Willard Reaves, who ran for the party in Fort Whyte in 2022 and 2023 sought the nomination before bowing out of the race and supporting Pfau.

### Green

On May 20, it was announced that the leader of the Green Party, Janine Gibson would be the candidate for the by-election.

## Results

vteManitoba provincial by-election, June 18, 2024: Tuxedo Resignation of Heather Stefanson :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | New Democratic | Carla Compton | 3,777 | 49.44 | +11.95 |
| | Progressive Conservative | Lawrence Pinsky | 3,175 | 41.56 | +1.36 |
| | Liberal | Jamie Pfau | 569 | 7.45 | -14.85 |
| | Green | Janine Gibson | 118 | 1.54 | |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 7,639 | 99.58 |
| Total rejected and declined ballots | Total rejected and declined ballots | Total rejected and declined ballots | 32 | 0.42 | +0.01 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 7,671 | 45.62 | -14.24 |
| Eligible voters | Eligible voters | Eligible voters | 16,814 |
| | New Democratic gain from Progressive Conservative | New Democratic gain from Progressive Conservative | Swing | Swing | +5.30 |

## Previous results

vte2023 Manitoba general election: Tuxedo :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Progressive Conservative | Heather Stefanson | 3,968 | 40.21 | -7.65 | $10,145.15 |
| | New Democratic | Larissa Ashdown | 3,700 | 37.49 | +17.70 | $1,572.48 |
| | Liberal | Marc Brandson | 2,201 | 22.30 | -1.26 | $5,309.68 |
| Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | 9,869 | 99.60 | – | $64,529.00 |
| Total rejected and declined ballots | Total rejected and declined ballots | Total rejected and declined ballots | 40 | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 9,909 | 59.86 | +1.96 |
| Eligible voters | Eligible voters | Eligible voters | 16,554 |
| | Progressive Conservative hold | Progressive Conservative hold | Swing | Swing | -12.67 |
| Source(s) Source: Elections Manitoba |||||||