# 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana. The election was held alongside the presidential election and 2016 Indiana elections.
Republican incumbent Dan Coats, who served in the Senate since 2011 and previously from 1989 to 1999, ultimately chose to not seek reelection. U.S. Representative Todd Young won the May 3 Republican primary to succeed him, with former U.S. Representative Baron Hill winning the Democratic nomination. However, Hill withdrew from the race on July 11, with former senator Evan Bayh entering the race to regain the seat, which he held from 1999 to 2011.
The Indiana Democratic Party formally chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Following his entry, Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner in the race. However, during the campaign, he faced heavy criticism over his post-Senate career as a lobbyist, as well as questions about his residency in the state. Young ultimately won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.

## Background

Republican Senator Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011, and previously from 1989 to 1999, stated that he planned to run for re-election, but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats had "decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".
On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Marlin Stutzman, U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
* Todd Young, U.S. Representative

#### Withdrawn

* Kevin Grant, financial consultant and candidate for IN-04 in 2014 (running for IN-04)
* Eric Holcomb, Senator Coats' chief of staff and former chairman of the Indiana Republican Party (appointed and ran for Lieutenant Governor before replacing Mike Pence as the nominee for governor)

#### Declined

* Greg Ballard, former mayor of Indianapolis
* Jim Banks, state senator (running for IN-03)
* Brian Bosma, Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives
* Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative and former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Indiana (running for re-election)
* Larry Bucshon, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
* Dan Coats, incumbent U.S. Senator
* Mitch Daniels, president of Purdue University and former governor of Indiana
* Mike Delph, state senator
* Richard Lugar, former U.S. Senator
* Jim Merritt, state senator
* Luke Messer, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
* Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana and former U.S. Representative (running for Vice President of the United States)
* Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative and former secretary of state of Indiana (running for re-election)
* Jackie Walorski, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
* Greg Zoeller, Indiana Attorney General (running for IN-09)

### Endorsements

* Citizens United
* Club for Growth
* FreedomWorks
* Senate Conservatives Fund

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Todd Young | Marlin Stutzman | Undecided |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | April 26–28, 2016 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| IPFW/Downs Center | April 13–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| WTHR/Howey | April 18–21, 2016 | 507 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 31% | 26% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Todd Young | 661,136 | 67.0% |
| | Republican | Marlin Stutzman | 324,429 | 33.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 985,565 | 100.0% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (withdrew after winning primary)

#### Withdrawn

* John Dickerson, former nonprofit organization director

#### Declined

* Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend
* André Carson, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
* Brad Ellsworth, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
* Christina Hale, state representative (running for lieutenant governor)
* John Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for governor in 2012 (running for governor)
* Thomas McDermott Jr., Mayor of Hammond
* Bart Peterson, former mayor of Indianapolis
* Glenda Ritz, Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction (running for re-election)
* Jonathan Weinzapfel, former mayor of Evansville and nominee for Indiana's 8th congressional district in 1996

### Endorsements

Individuals
* Evan Bayh, former U.S. Senator for this seat and former governor of Indiana, replacement nominee
Organizations
* Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Baron Hill | 516,183 | 100.00% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 516,183 | 100.00% |

## Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot. Hill soon released a statement formally dropping out of the race, saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions," without explicitly endorsing Bayh. The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state. Bayh officially declared for the race July 13. The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.

### Candidates

* Evan Bayh, former U.S. Senator and Governor of Indiana
* Bob Kern, candidate for IN-7 in 2012, IN-2 in 2014, and IN-9 2016

## General election
### Candidates

* Evan Bayh (D), former U.S. Senator and Governor of Indiana
* Lucy Brenton (L)
* Todd Young (R), U.S. Representative

### Debates

| Dates | Location | Young | Bayh | Brenton | Link |
| October 18, 2016 | Indianapolis, Indiana | Participant | Participant | Participant | |

### Endorsements

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
* Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, former U.S. senator from New York, 2008 presidential candidate and 2016 presidential nominee
Mayors
* Tom Henry, Fort Wayne, Indiana
Organizations
* Daily News Bin
Labor unions
* UAW - United Automobile Workers
Newspapers
* The Journal Gazette
* South Bend Tribune
Presidents of the United States
* George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States
U.S. Senators
* Tom Cotton, Arkansas
* Ted Cruz, Texas and 2016 presidential candidate
U.S. Representatives
* Paul Ryan, Wisconsin, 54th Speaker of the House and 2012 vice presidential nominee
Former state party chairs
* Al Hubbard
* Jim Kittle
Individuals
* Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 nominee for Senate in California and 2016 presidential candidate
Organizations
* American Conservative Union
* Indiana Right to Life
* National Federation of Independent Business
* National Rifle Association - Political Victory Fund
* United States Chamber of Commerce
Newspapers
* The Indianapolis Star
* The Times of Northwest Indiana

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |

### Polling

Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Todd Young (R) | Evan Bayh (D) | Lucy Brenton (L) | Undecided |
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,700 | ± 4.6% | 53% | 42% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 1,383 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 43% | — | 5% |
| WTHR/Howey | November 1–3, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 6% | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 923 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 43% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 790 | ± 4.6% | 51% | 44% | — | 5% |
| Gravis Marketing | Oct 30–Nov 1, 2016 | 399 | ± 4.9% | 37% | 40% | 7% | 16% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 638 | ± 4.6% | 51% | 46% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 674 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 46% | — | 4% |
| Monmouth University | October 27–30, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 4% | 5% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 22–24, 2016 | 596 | ± 2.3% | 37% | 39% | 7% | 17% |
| WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey | October 10–16, 2016 | 544 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 49% | — | 6% |
| Monmouth University | October 11–13, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 42% | 48% | 6% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) | October 9–11, 2016 | 609 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 8% | 13% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 7–10, 2016 | 1,123 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | — | 11% |
| WTHR/Howey | October 3–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 8% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) | October 3, 2016 | – | – | 38% | 42% | 7% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) | September 21, 2016 | – | – | 39% | 44% | 9% | 8% |
| WTHR/Howey | September 6–8, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) | September 1, 2016 | – | – | 35% | 44% | 6% | 15% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh) | August 15–18, 2016 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 39% | 55% | — | 6% |
| Monmouth University | August 13–16, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 48% | 4% | 7% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) | August 10–14, 2016 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 36% | 54% | — | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) | August 8, 2016 | – | – | 35% | 48% | 7% | 10% |
| Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg) | August 1–3, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 32% | 58% | — | 9% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC) | July 12–14, 2016 | 602 | ± 4.1% | 33% | 54% | — | 13% |
with Baron Hill
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Todd Young (R) | Baron Hill (D) | Undecided |
| Bellwether Research | May 11–15, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 22% | 30% |
| WTHR/Howey | April 18–21, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 48% | 30% | 22% |
with Marlin Stutzman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marlin Stutzman (R) | Baron Hill (D) | Undecided |
| WTHR/Howey | April 18–21, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 36% | 25% |

### Results

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Todd Young | 1,423,991 | 52.11% | −2.47% |
| | Democratic | Evan Bayh | 1,158,947 | 42.41% | +2.41% |
| | Libertarian | Lucy Brenton | 149,481 | 5.47% | +0.06% |
| | Independent | James L. Johnson, Jr. (write-in) | 127 | 0.01% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 2,732,546 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Porter (largest city: Portage)
* St. Joseph (largest city: South Bend)

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Vermillion (largest city: Clinton)
* Sullivan (largest city: Sullivan)

#### By congressional district

Young won 7 of 9 congressional districts.
| District | Young | Bayh | Representative |
| 1st | 38% | 58% | Pete Visclosky |
| 2nd | 53% | 41% | Jackie Walorski |
| 3rd | 59% | 35% | Marlin Stutzman |
| 4th | 59% | 35% | Todd Rokita |
| 5th | 53% | 42% | Susan Brooks |
| 6th | 61% | 34% | Luke Messer |
| 7th | 35% | 59% | André Carson |
| 8th | 53% | 42% | Larry Bucshon |
| 9th | 56% | 39% | Todd Young |