# Statewide opinion polling for the 2004 United States presidential election

This article provides a collection of statewide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the 2004 United States presidential election. All candidates involved in polling are John Kerry, against incumbent President George W. Bush, with third-party candidates Ralph Nader (Independent), Michael Badnarik (Libertarian), David Cobb (Green), and Michael Peroutka (Constitution). Additional third-party candidates were on the Minnesota presidential ballot.

## Opinion polling
### Alabama

9 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 21–30 | 42% | 53% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA | October 25–27 | 39% | 57% | 18 | 634 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 6–20 | 41% | 53% | 12 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA | October 1–3 | 34% | 62% | 28 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 15–28 | 40% | 56% | 16 | Not reported | ±5% |
| American Research Group | September 13–16 | 40% | 54% | 14 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 3–14 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 416 LV | ±5% |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center | August 30–31 | 34% | 54% | 20 | 482 LV | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 500 LV | ±5% |
| WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA | August 21–23 | 37% | 58% | 21 | 599 LV | ±4.1% |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center | July 22–28 | 34% | 56% | 22 | 590 LV | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 38% | 52% | 14 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 36% | 57% | 21 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center | May 4–6, 17–20 | 37% | 56% | 19 | 785 RV | ±3.5% |
| Mobile Register/University of South Alabama | May 10–13 | 35% | 55% | 20 | 400 RV | ±5% |
| WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA | May 1–3 | 36% | 55% | 19 | 743 LV | ±3.7% |
| University of South Alabama | March 15–18 | 27% | 59% | 32 | 405 A | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center | October 11–13 | 32% | 56% | 1% | 24 | 546 LV | ±4% |
| Mobile Register/University of South Alabama | September 27–30 | 22% | 59% | 1% | 37 | 519 LV | ±4.3% |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center | August 9–12 | 34% | 51% | 1% | 17 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Mobile Register/University of South Alabama | May 10–13 | 29% | 54% | 5% | 25 | 400 RV | ±5% |

### Alaska

3 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 9–11 | 30% | 57% | 5% | 27 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Dittman Research | June 23–30 | 33% | 56% | 5% | 23 | 511 RV | ±4% |

### Arizona

10 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 41% | 56% | 15 | 599 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 26 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group | October 18–19 | 40% | 47% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA | October 17–19 | 43% | 54% | 11 | 616 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive | October 15–18 | 47% | 50% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Northern Arizona University | October 7–11 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 401 LV | ±5% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA | October 5–7 | 41% | 55% | 14 | 599 LV | ±4.1% |
| Zogby Interactive | October 2–5 | 47% | 50% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group | October 2–4 | 38% | 48% | 10 | 601 LV | ±4% |
| SurveyUSA | September 27–29 | 44% | 53% | 9 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA | September 21–23 | 43% | 54% | 11 | 631 LV | ±4% |
| Bradenton.com/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 13–14 | 39% | 50% | 11 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group | September 3–5 | 38% | 54% | 16 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | August 19–22 | 39% | 47% | 8 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group | July 30–August 1 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 601 LV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | July 15–17 | 42% | 41% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA | July 12–14 | 41% | 53% | 12 | 767 LV | ±3.6% |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | June 30–July 7 | 36% | 46% | 10 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 45.3% | 48.3% | 3 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | April 29–May 4 | 42% | 46% | 4 | 555 RV | ±4.2% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | April 23–26 | 38% | 41% | 3 | 410 RV | ±4.8% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA | March 17–18 | 42% | 51% | 9 | 634 LV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | February 19–22 | 46% | 44% | 2 | 430 RV | ±4.7% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA | February 18–19 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 534 RV | ±4.3% |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | January 6–12 | 38% | 48% | 10 | 704 A | ±3.7% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | November 14–17, 2003 | 33% | 51% | 18 | Not reported | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | October 19–21 | 42% | 49% | N/A | 1% | 7 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | September 23–26 | 38% | 53% | N/A | 1% | 15 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 48% | 49% | 3% | N/A | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| American Research Group | September 11–14 | 43% | 49% | 1% | N/A | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | June 24–27 | 35% | 47% | 2% | N/A | 12 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group | June 10–13 | 41% | 44% | 2% | N/A | 3 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University | May 20–23 | 38% | 43% | 2% | N/A | 5 | 377 RV | ±5.1% |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | April 29–May 4 | 37% | 45% | 7% | N/A | 8 | 555 RV | ±4.2% |

### Arkansas

6 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA | October 30–November 1 | 46% | 51% | 5 | 550 LV | ±4.3% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA | October 23–25 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 649 LV | ±3.9% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA | October 15–17 | 46% | 51% | 5 | 617 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 11 | 45% | 51% | 6 | Not reported | ±5% |
| SurveyUSA | October 1–3 | 44% | 53% | 9 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA | September 27–29 | 44% | 53% | 9 | 579 LV | ±4.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 12–25 | 44% | 51% | 7 | 500 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 43% | 49% | 6 | Not reported | ±5% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA | August 20–22 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 567 LV | ±4.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 46% | 46% | Tied | Not reported | ±5% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA | July 6–8 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 546 LV | ±4.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 46% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 43.8% | 49.5% | 5.7 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 43% | 48% | 5 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 2 | 45% | 45% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA | April 14–15 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 565 LV | ±4.2% |
| Arkansas State University | March 1–April 8 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 418 A | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 25–30 | 46.9% | 50.1% | 0.5% | 3.2 | 620 LV | ±3.9% |
| Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research Associates | October 18–20 | 48% | 48% | 1% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| University of Arkansas | October 5–20 | 44% | 53% | 2% | 9 | 618 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 48.4% | 49.7% | 0.2% | 1.3 | 516 LV | ±4.3% |
| Arkansas Democrat-Gazette/Zogby International | October 10–11 | 44.6% | 46.2% | 2% | 1.6 | 503 LV | ±4.5% |
| Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research Associates | October 4–6 | 43% | 52% | 1% | 9 | 502 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 46.9% | 46.7% | 0.7% | 0.2 | 545 LV | ±3.6% |
| American Research Group | September 15–17 | 45% | 48% | 2% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 46.6% | 46.5% | 2.2% | 0.1 | 582 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 45.9% | 47.6% | 0.6% | 1.7 | 574 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 48.2% | 45.6% | 0.8% | 2.6 | 508 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 46.4% | 47.9% | 0.5% | 1.5 | 503 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 44.6% | 47.4% | 2% | 2.8 | 512 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 44.5% | 46.7% | 4.4% | 2.2 | 508 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 46.8% | 44.7% | 2.1% | 2.1 | 505 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 43.5% | 51.2% | 1.6% | 7.7 | 699 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 44.5% | 49.3% | 1.2% | 4.8 | 497 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 2 | 45% | 45% | 0% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |

### California

55 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA | October 29–31 | 54% | 43% | 11 | 767 LV | ±3.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 17–30 | 53% | 43% | 10 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | October 21–27 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 1,086 LV | ±3.2% |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA | October 23–25 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 743 LV | ±3.7% |
| Los Angeles Times | October 14–18 | 58% | 40% | 18 | 925 LV | ±3% |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA | October 15–17 | 53% | 43% | 10 | 703 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 5–11 | 51% | 43% | 8 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 29–October 5 | 53% | 42% | 11 | 864 LV | ±4% |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA | October 2–4 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 748 LV | ±3.7% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | September 30–October 3 | 49% | 40% | 9 | 586 LV | ±4.3% |
| San José State University | September 27–October 1 | 48% | 42% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | September 24–29 | 49% | 41% | 8 | 549 LV | ±4.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 19–25 | 53% | 40% | 13 | 848 LV | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times | September 17–21 | 55% | 40% | 15 | 861 LV | ±3% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | September 12–19 | 51% | 39% | 12 | 1,151 LV | ±3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 11–17 | 55% | 39% | 16 | Not reported | ±3% |
| American Research Group | September 11–13 | 52% | 41% | 11 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA | September 6–8 | 52% | 42% | 10 | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 27–September 3 | 50% | 42% | 8 | 608 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 16–26 | 51% | 42% | 9 | 654 LV | Not reported |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA | August 16–18 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 589 LV | ±4.1% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | August 4–11 | 54% | 38% | 16 | 1,117 LV | ±3% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | July 30–August 4 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 633 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 55% | 37% | 18 | Not reported | ±3% |
| San José State University | June 28–July 2 | 50% | 39% | 11 | 608 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 52% | 38% | 14 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 49% | 41% | 8 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | May 18–24 | 55% | 40% | 15 | 647 RV | ±4% |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA | May 4–6 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 635 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 17–24 | 51% | 40% | 11 | 502 LV | ±5% |
| Los Angeles Times | April 17–21 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 1,265 RV | ±3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 5–11 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 445 LV | ±5% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | February 18–22 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 958 RV | ±3.3% |
| Los Angeles Times | February 18–22 | 53% | 40% | 13 | 560 LV | ±4% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | January 5–13 | 39% | 48% | 9 | 929 RV | ±3.4% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | September 25–October 1, 2003 | 42% | 46% | 4 | Not reported | ±4.5% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | September 3–7, 2003 | 42% | 45% | 3 | 649 RV | ±4.0% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Los Angeles Times | September 17–21 | 53% | 40% | 2% | 13 | 861 LV | ±3% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | July 30–August 4 | 51% | 40% | 2% | 11 | 633 LV | ±4.1% |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA | July 23–25 | 53% | 41% | 3% | 12 | 711 LV | ±3.8% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | June 30–July 14 | 49% | 38% | 5% | 11 | 1,378 LV | ±2.7% |
| San José State University | June 28–July 2 | 46% | 38% | 7% | 8 | 608 LV | ±4% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) | May 18–24 | 51% | 39% | 4% | 12 | 647 RV | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times | April 17–21 | 49% | 39% | 6% | 10 | 1,265 RV | ±3% |

### Colorado

9 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KUSA-TV Denver/SurveyUSA | October 30–November 1 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 705 LV | ±3.8% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 46% | 52% | 6 | 626 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies | October 25–27 | 42% | 51% | 9 | 500 LV | ±4.3% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| League of Conservation Voters/Fairbank, Maslin & Associates (D) | October 15–21 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA | October 18–20 | 45% | 52% | 7 | 597 LV | ±4.1% |
| The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates | October 15–19 | 43% | 50% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 48% | 49% | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| USA Today/CNN/Gallup | October 14–17 | 46% | 51% | 5 | 666 LV | ±4% |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA | October 5–7 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 4–6 | 41% | 50% | 9 | 630 LV | ±4% |
| USA Today/CNN/Gallup | October 3–6 | 49% | 49% | Tied | 667 LV | ±5% |
| Zogby Interactive | October 2–6 | 49% | 48% | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA | September 21–23 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 626 LV | ±4% |
| The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates | September 14–18 | 39% | 51% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 19 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA | August 14–16 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 622 LV | ±4% |
| Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | June 15–18 | 43% | 48% | 5 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 14 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 43% | 50% | 1% | 7 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates | October 15–19 | 42% | 48% | 2% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| USA Today/CNN/Gallup | October 14–17 | 45% | 51% | 1% | 6 | 666 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 14–16 | 43% | 49% | 1% | 6 | 630 LV | ±4% |
| Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies | October 13–14 | 42% | 47% | 3% | 5 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| USA Today/CNN/Gallup | October 3–6 | 49% | 49% | 1% | Tied | 667 LV | ±5% |
| The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates | September 14–18 | 38% | 50% | 3% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 48% | 49% | 3% | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies | September 12–13 | 44% | 45% | 3% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group | September 10–13 | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies | March 31–April 1 | 40% | 49% | 4% | 9 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| Schaffer for Senate/McLaughlin & Associates (R) | March 15–16 | 42% | 46% | 4% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
Six-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | David Cobb | Michael Badnarik | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 18 | 45% | 50% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 29 | 44% | 48% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 16 | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |

### Connecticut

7 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Quinnipiac University | September 26–28 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 723 LV | ±3.6% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 12–17 | 48% | 40% | 8 | 1,079 RV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 27–28 | 55% | 34% | 19 | 929 RV | ±3.2% |
| Quinnipiac University | May 26–June 1 | 50% | 38% | 12 | 1,350 RV | ±2.7% |
| University of Connecticut | February 26–29 | 49% | 36% | 13 | 448 RV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | November 12–18, 2003 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 1,600 RV | ±2.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 1–7, 2003 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 1,519 RV | ±2.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 23–29, 2003 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 1,384 RV | ±2.6% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 22–28, 2003 | 37% | 54% | 17 | 1,239 RV | ±2.8% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Quinnipiac University | September 26–28 | 50% | 44% | 2% | 6 | 723 LV | ±3.6% |
| American Research Group | September 12–14 | 54% | 39% | 1% | 15 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 12–17 | 45% | 38% | 6% | 7 | 1,079 RV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 27–28 | 50% | 32% | 9% | 18 | 929 RV | ±3.2% |
| Quinnipiac University | May 26–June 1 | 46% | 36% | 8% | 10 | 1,350 RV | ±2.7% |
| University of Connecticut | April 21–27 | 51% | 33% | 4% | 18 | 501 RV | ±4% |
| University of Connecticut | March 22–28 | 52% | 33% | 4% | 19 | 511 RV | ±4% |

### Delaware

3 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WHYY-TV/West Chester University | September 22–25 | 45.2% | 37.6% | 0.5% | 7.6 | 590 RV | ±3.9% |
| American Research Group | September 13–15 | 50% | 41% | 2% | 9 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### District of Columbia

3 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Lead Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 11–13 | 78% | 11% | 6% | 67 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### Florida

27 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Lead Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA | October 29–31 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 742 LV | ±3.7% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 27 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4% |
| America Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D) | October 25–27 | 46% | 48% | 2 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 20–26 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 567 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 23–25 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA | October 22–24 | 50% | 48% | 2 | 749 LV | ±3.7% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 15–19 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 808 LV | ±3.5% |
| WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA | October 15–17 | 50% | 49% | 1 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 14–16 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| InsiderAdvantage | October 12–14 | 48% | 44% | 4 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 8–14 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 684 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 2–5 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 1–5 | 44% | 51% | 7 | 717 LV | ±3.7% |
| WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA | October 1–3 | 46% | 51% | 5 | 711 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 27–October 3 | 47% | 51% | 4 | 781 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 24–27 | 43% | 53% | 10 | 704 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 18–24 | 49% | 48% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 18–22 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 674 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 18–21 | 43% | 48% | 5 | 819 RV | ±3.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 11–17 | 47% | 48% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA | September 12–14 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 607 LV | ±4.1% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 20–22 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 671 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 5–10 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 1,094 RV | ±3% |
| American Research Group | August 3–5 | 52% | 44% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 47% | 45% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | July 19–22 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 699 LV | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times | July 19–21 | 45% | 45% | Tied | 729 RV | ±4% |
| Sayfie Review/InsiderAdvantage | July 19–20 | 46% | 46% | Tied | 687 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | July 13–15 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV-TV Palm Beach/WKRG-TV Mobile/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/SurveyUSA | July 9–11 | 47% | 44% | 3 | 732 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 48% | 43% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 23–27 | 46% | 44% | 2 | 1,209 RV | ±2.8% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | June 22–23 | 41% | 50% | 9 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | June 21–23 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV-TV Palm Beach/WKRG-TV Mobile/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/SurveyUSA | June 12–14 | 43% | 50% | 7 | 723 LV | ±3.7% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 44.3% | 49.2% | 4.9 | 1,200 LV | ±2.83% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 46% | 46% | Tied | Not reported | ±4% |
| American Research Group | May 17–19 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| America Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D) | April 29–May 9 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 1,000 LV | ±3% |
| American Research Group | April 18–21 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 13 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Tampa Tribune/News Channel 8/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | March 30–April 1 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 1–13 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Schroth, Eldon & Associates/The Polling Company | December 1–3, 2003 | 38% | 51% | 13 | 800 RV | ±3.5% |
| Tampa Tribune/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | November 17–19, 2003 | 34% | 57% | 23 | 625 RV | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | October 30–November 1 | 50% | 48% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | October 30–31 | 49% | 44% | 1% | 5 | 700 LV | ±4% |
| InsiderAdvantage | October 29–31 | 48% | 48% | 1% | Tied | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 27–31 | 43% | 51% | 1% | 8 | 1,098 LV | ±3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 27–30 | 49% | 46% | 0% | 3 | 1,138 LV | ±4% |
| New York Times Regional Newspapers/Florida Poll | October 23–27 | 48.3% | 46.7% | 1.5% | 1.6 | 802 LV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 22–26 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 3 | 944 LV | ±3.2% |
| Los Angeles Times | October 22–26 | 43% | 51% | 2% | 8 | 510 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 23–25 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 21–24 | 43% | 51% | 1% | 8 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Schroth, Eldon & Associates/The Polling Company Inc. | October 19–21 | 46% | 46% | 1% | Tied | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| InsiderAdvantage | October 19–21 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | Not reported | Not reported |
| Quinnipiac University | October 15–19 | 47% | 48% | 1% | 1 | 808 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 48.9% | 50.1% | 0.3% | 1.2 | 2,131 LV | ±2.1% |
| University of North Florida | October 10–15 | 45% | 44% | 2% | 1 | 614 LV | ±4% |
| Univision/Washington Post | October 4–10 | 48% | 48% | 1% | Tied | 655 LV | ±4% |
| NBC2 News/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 4–5 | 44% | 48% | 2% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 2–5 | 47% | 45% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 1–5 | 44% | 51% | 0% | 7 | 717 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 49.5% | 49.1% | 0.5% | 0.4 | 1,925 LV | ±2.2% |
| America Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D) | October 1–4 | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 24–27 | 43% | 52% | 1% | 9 | 704 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 18–22 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 3 | 674 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 18–21 | 41% | 49% | 5% | 8 | 819 RV | ±3.4% |
| American Research Group | September 17–20 | 46% | 45% | 2% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 48.1% | 47.6% | 0.9% | 0.5 | 1,669 LV | ±2.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 6–12 | 47% | 48% | 1% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 49.4% | 49.1% | 0.6% | 0.3 | 1,679 LV | ±2.4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 20–22 | 46% | 48% | 2% | 2 | 671 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 49.6% | 49% | 0.3% | 0.6 | 1,421 LV | ±2.6% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 5–10 | 47% | 41% | 4% | 6 | 1,094 RV | ±3% |
| American Research Group | August 3–5 | 50% | 43% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 49.5% | 46.7% | 2% | 2.8 | 1,587 LV | ±2.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 48.4% | 48.5% | 0.9% | 0.1 | 1,500 LV | ±2.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | July 19–22 | 46% | 50% | 1% | 4 | 699 LV | ±4% |
| Orlando Sentinel/WESH NewsChannel 2/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | July 19–21 | 46% | 48% | 2% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times | July 19–21 | 44% | 45% | 2% | 1 | 729 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | July 13–15 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 50.8% | 44.2% | 2.9% | 6.6 | 1,156 LV | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 23–27 | 43% | 43% | 5% | Tied | 1,209 RV | ±2.8% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | June 22–23 | 38% | 48% | 3% | 10 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | June 21–23 | 47% | 46% | 2% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 18–22 | 48% | 42% | 1% | 6 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 46.1% | 50.3% | 0.5% | 4.2 | 1,429 LV | ±2.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 11–17 | 48% | 44% | 1% | 4 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 49.5% | 47.9% | 0.6% | 1.6 | 1,170 LV | ±2.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 49% | 47.6% | 1% | 1.4 | 857 LV | ±3.4% |
| American Research Group | May 17–19 | 46% | 47% | 3% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D) | April 29–May 9 | 48% | 46% | 3% | 2 | 1,000 LV | ±3% |
| American Research Group | April 18–21 | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | March 3–4 | 45% | 44% | 4% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Schroth, Eldon & Associates/The Polling Company | March 3–4 | 49% | 43% | 3% | 6 | 800 RV | ±3.5% |
Five-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | David Cobb | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) | August 24 | 47% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |

### Georgia

15 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 41% | 53% | 12 | 628 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 24–30 | 39% | 54% | 15 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International | October 27–29 | 42% | 52% | 10 | 501 LV | ±4.5% |
| WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA | October 18–20 | 40% | 57% | 17 | 609 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 14–20 | 38% | 58% | 20 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International | October 13–15 | 41% | 51% | 10 | 503 LV | ±4.5% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International | October 6–8 | 39% | 54% | 15 | 501 LV | ±4.5% |
| WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA | October 5–7 | 39% | 58% | 19 | 594 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 24–30 | 39% | 54% | 15 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 9–22 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA | September 13–15 | 38% | 58% | 20 | 658 LV | ±3.9% |
| American Research Group | September 11–13 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 43% | 54% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 42% | 53% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 41% | 52% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 39% | 51% | 12 | Not reported | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| InsiderAdvantage | May 31–June 2 | 32% | 49% | 3% | 17 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Schapiro Research Group | February 5–9 | 44% | 47% | 1% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |

### Hawaii

4 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Star-Bulletin/KITV-4 News/SMS Research | October 17–20 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 612 LV | ±4% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Ward Research | October 13–18 | 42.6% | 43.3% | 0.7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 7–11 | 51% | 41% | 4% | 10 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Star-Bulletin/KITV-4 News/SMS Research | July 29–August 3 | 48% | 41% | 1% | 7 | 681 RV | ±3.7% |

### Idaho

4 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 8–10 | 30% | 59% | 3% | 29 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KTVB-TV/KIDO Radio/Greg Smith & Associates | June 8–10, 14 | 25% | 55% | 6% | 30 | 400 LV | Not reported |

### Illinois

21 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| McCulloch Research & Polling (R) | October 28–31 | 53% | 43% | 10 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 24–30 | 51% | 43% | 8 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WBBM-TV Chicago/KSDK-TV St. Louis/SurveyUSA | October 27–29 | 54% | 42% | 12 | 665 LV | ±3.9% |
| Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp. | October 16–19 | 50% | 42% | 8 | 700 LV | ±4% |
| WBBM-TV Chicago/KSDK-TV St. Louis/SurveyUSA | October 4–6 | 55% | 39% | 16 | 644 LV | ±4% |
| Daily Southtown/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 4 | 52% | 41% | 11 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 9–22 | 51% | 42% | 9 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp. | September 17–20 | 49% | 40% | 9 | 700 LV | ±4% |
| WBBM-TV Chicago/KSDK-TV St. Louis/SurveyUSA | September 12–14 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 618 LV | ±4% |
| Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp. | August 13–16 | 52% | 38% | 14 | 700 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 54% | 39% | 15 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 53% | 37% | 16 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WBBM-TV Chicago/KSDK-TV St. Louis/SurveyUSA | June 7–9 | 52% | 39% | 13 | 742 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 54% | 38% | 16 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 12 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Daily Southtown/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 3 | 52% | 39% | 13 | 448 LV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 13–16 | 49% | 43% | 2% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp. | May 21–24 | 53% | 37% | 4% | 16 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 12 | 46% | 41% | 8% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | March 8–10 | 39% | 47% | 2% | 8 | 625 RV | ±4% |

### Indiana

11 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WXIN-TV Indianapolis/SurveyUSA | October 27–29 | 39% | 58% | 19 | 589 LV | ±4.1% |
| WXIN-TV Indianapolis/SurveyUSA | October 17–19 | 37% | 59% | 22 | 602 LV | ±4% |
| WXIN-TV Indianapolis/SurveyUSA | October 3–5 | 39% | 58% | 19 | 589 LV | ±4.1% |
| Indianapolis Star/WTHR Channel 13/Selzer & Co. | September 29–October 3 | 33% | 61% | 28 | Not reported | Not reported |
| American Research Group | September 16–20 | 39% | 54% | 15 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WXIN-TV Indianapolis/SurveyUSA | September 7–9 | 36% | 60% | 26 | 692 LV | ±3.8% |
| Indiana Manufacturing Association/Bellwether Research & Consulting | August 15–18 | 40% | 52% | 12 | 601 LV | ±4.0% |
| Market Research Informatics | July 8–12 | 27% | 46% | 19 | 852 RV | ±3.5% |
| Indiana Manufacturing Association/Bellwether Research & Consulting | June 22–24 | 36% | 52% | 16 | 600 LV | ±4.0% |
| Indiana Manufacturing Association/Bellwether Research & Consulting | March 22–24 | 37% | 52% | 15 | 600 LV | ±4.0% |
| WXIN-TV Indianapolis/WHAS-TV Louisville/WBBM-TV Chicago/SurveyUSA | February 15–17 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 585 RV | ±4.2% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Indianapolis Star/WTHR Channel 13/Selzer & Co. | October 27–29 | 37% | 57% | N/A | 1% | 20 | 1,002 LV | ±3.1% |
| Indianapolis Star/WTHR Channel 13/Selzer & Co. | May 13–19 | 33% | 54% | 6% | N/A | 21 | 540 LV | Not reported |

### Iowa

7 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA | October 31–November 1 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 519 LV | ±4.4% |
| Zogby Interactive (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 49% | 49% | Tied | 661 LV | ±3.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 24–30 | 48% | 48% | Tied | Not reported | ±5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | October 25–27 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 9–22 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA | October 18–20 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 690 LV | ±3.8% |
| American Research Group | October 10–12 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 27–October 10 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA | October 4–6 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 669 LV | ±3.9% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | September 27–October 3 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 599 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 24–30 | 45% | 48% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 10–23 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA | September 20–22 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 784 LV | ±3.6% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 23–26 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 606 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 48% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 48% | 45% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| American Research Group | July 26–28 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | June 21–July 12 | 50.4% | 45.7% | 4.7 | 614 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 48% | 44% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 48.8% | 41.9% | 6.9 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 49% | 41% | 8 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA | May 24–26 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 794 LV | ±3.6% |
| American Research Group | April 18–21 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 23 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. | February 7–11 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | October 30–31 | 44% | 48% | 1% | 4 | 700 LV | ±3.7% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 27–30 | 46% | 48% | 2% | 2 | 1,119 LV | ±3% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. | October 25–29 | 48% | 45% | 1% | 3 | 806 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | October 25–27 | 47% | 48% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 22–25 | 46% | 50% | 1% | 4 | 649 LV | ±4% |
| Capital Surveys Inc. | October 14–19 | 46% | 45% | 1% | 1 | 502 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 43% | 49% | 1% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 51.1% | 47.9% | 0.4% | 3.2 | 571 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | October 10–12 | 47% | 47% | 1% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Chicago Tribune/Market Shares Corp. | October 8–11 | 45% | 47% | 1% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 51.1% | 44.5% | 0.2% | 6.6 | 586 LV | ±4.1% |
| America Coming Together/Harstad Strategic Research (D) | October 3–4 | 43% | 46% | 3% | 3 | 717 RV | ±3.7% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | September 27–October 3 | 47% | 46% | 4% | 1 | 599 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | September 21–22 | 45% | 48% | 1% | 3 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 16–19 | 44% | 50% | 2% | 6 | 631 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 50.3% | 47.3% | 0.7% | 3 | 566 LV | ±4.1% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 14–16 | 42% | 48% | 2% | 6 | 626 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 12–14 | 46% | 48% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 50.6% | 46.9% | 0.8% | 3.7 | 565 LV | ±4.1% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 23–26 | 51% | 45% | 2% | 6 | 606 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 52.2% | 45.2% | 0.6% | 7 | 508 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 50% | 46.1% | 0.6% | 3.9 | 497 LV | ±4.4% |
| American Research Group | July 26–28 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 49.3% | 47.5% | 0.6% | 1.8 | 490 LV | ±4.4% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. | July 17–21 | 45% | 46% | 2% | 1 | 641 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 48.2% | 46.7% | 1.9% | 1.5 | 479 LV | ±4.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 48.9% | 46.8% | 1.9% | 2.1 | 485 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 48.9% | 47.6% | 1.2% | 1.3 | 702 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 44.9% | 50.1% | 0.8% | 5.2 | 588 LV | ±4.0% |
| American Research Group | April 18–21 | 47% | 46% | 3% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | June 21–July 12 | 47.7% | 44.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 3.3 | 614 RV | ±4% |

### Kansas

6 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA | October 25–27 | 37% | 60% | 23 | 651 LV | ±3.8% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA | October 9–11 | 38% | 57% | 19 | 595 LV | ±4.1% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA | September 7–9 | 35% | 60% | 25 | 604 LV | ±4% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA | June 28–30 | 36% | 56% | 20 | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA | March 3–4 | 39% | 57% | 18 | 501 RV | ±4.5% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA | February 9–10 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 549 RV | ±4.3% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Kansas City Star/Midwest Survey Research | October 22–26 | 30% | 59% | 1% | 29 | 573 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | September 15–18 | 35% | 57% | 2% | 22 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### Kentucky

8 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 38% | 59% | 21 | 636 LV | ±4% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA | October 17–19 | 37% | 59% | 22 | 629 LV | ±4% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA | October 4–6 | 38% | 57% | 19 | 622 LV | ±4% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA | September 7–9 | 39% | 56% | 17 | 665 LV | ±3.9% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA | August 13–15 | 39% | 56% | 17 | 697 LV | ±3.8% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA | July 24–26 | 42% | 52% | 10 | 690 LV | ±3.8% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA | June 7–8 | 39% | 52% | 13 | 669 LV | ±3.9% |
| Louisville Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) | May 5–11 | 40% | 52% | 12 | 665 LV | ±3.8% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA | February 14–16 | 41% | 57% | 16 | 681 RV | ±3.8% |
| Louisville Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) | January 30–February 4 | 38% | 55% | 17 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Louisville Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) | October 18–20 | 39% | 56% | 1% | 16 | 690 LV | ±3.1% |
| Louisville Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) | September 10–15 | 38% | 53% | 3% | 15 | 657 LV | ±3.8% |
| American Research Group | September 8–12 | 39% | 57% | 1% | 18 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### Louisiana

9 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| University of New Orleans | October 13–21 | 38% | 50% | 12 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KALB-TV Alexandria/WAFB-TV Baton Rouge/KPLC-TV Lake Charles/KNOE-TV Monroe/WDSU-TV New Orleans/KSLA-TV Shreveport/Southern Media & Opinion Research | October 12–13 | 31% | 50% | 19 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Marketing Research Institute | October 4–7 | 36% | 51% | 15 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| Marketing Research Institute | August 31–September 2 | 36% | 53% | 17 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| Marketing Research Institute | July 14–20 | 38% | 54% | 16 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| Marketing Research Institute | May 19–27 | 42% | 48% | 6 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| Multi-Quest International | May 21–25 | 29% | 48% | 19 | 400 RV | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Southeastern Louisiana University | October 17–22 | 32% | 58% | 1% | 26 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Marketing Research Institute | October 17–19 | 37% | 52% | 1% | 15 | Not reported | Not reported |
| TV8 News/Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | October 12–15 | 39% | 47% | 2% | 8 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | September 17–21 | 42% | 50% | 1% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Harris, DeVille & Associates/Southern Media & Opinion Research | March 17–29 | 37.6% | 51.7% | 1.7% | 14.1 | 700 RV | ±3.8% |
Six-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | David Cobb | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 6 | 44% | 52% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |

### Maine

4 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 52% | 44% | 8 | 1,008 LV | ±3.2% |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 17–19 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 660 LV | ±3.9% |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 3–5 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 653 LV | ±3.9% |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | September 20–22 | 46% | 47% | 1 | 636 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 49% | 44% | 5 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | August 22–24 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 632 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 48% | 44% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 46% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 54% | 35% | 19 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Critical Insights | May 7–20 | 49% | 39% | 10 | Not reported | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Maine Sunday Telegram/Zogby International | October 20–21 | 50% | 39% | 1% | 11 | 402 LV | ±5% |
| Strategic Marketing Services | September 23–27 | 42% | 39% | 4% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Critical Insights | September 10–23 | 45% | 42% | 3% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 8–10 | 48% | 44% | 4% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram/Zogby International | September 9 | 43% | 43% | 3% | Tied | 400 LV | ±5.0% |
| Strategic Marketing Services | June 5–12 | 43.5% | 41% | 4.5% | 2.5 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
| Strategic Marketing Services | February 28–March 3 | 51% | 38% | 4% | 13 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
1st congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 527 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 17–19 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 350 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 3–5 | 53% | 43% | 10 | 343 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | September 20–22 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 343 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | August 22–24 | 52% | 43% | 9 | 332 LV | Not reported |
2nd congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 52% | 45% | 7 | 480 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 17–19 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 311 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | October 3–5 | 44% | 53% | 9 | 310 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | September 20–22 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 293 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA | August 22–24 | 45% | 45% | Tied | 299 LV | Not reported |

### Maryland

10 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WMAR-TV Baltimore/SurveyUSA | October 27–29 | 54% | 43% | 11 | 607 LV | ±4.1% |
| Baltimore Sun/Ipsos | October 25–26 | 56% | 39% | 17 | 602 RV | ±4% |
| NBC4 News/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 24–26 | 52% | 41% | 11 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 9–22 | 53% | 43% | 10 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 26–October 8 | 52% | 41% | 9 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WMAR-TV Baltimore/SurveyUSA | October 5–7 | 56% | 41% | 15 | 583 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 14–27 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WMAR-TV Baltimore/SurveyUSA | September 17–19 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 54% | 41% | 13 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WMAR-TV Baltimore/SurveyUSA | August 23–25 | 53% | 42% | 11 | 594 LV | ±4.1% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | August 10–15 | 53% | 40% | 13 | 847 RV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 53% | 39% | 14 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | February 3–8 | 51% | 40% | 11 | Not reported | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | October 1–5 | 52% | 42% | 1% | 10 | 801 RV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | September 7–9 | 52% | 43% | 2% | 9 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | June 4–9 | 52% | 38% | 2% | 14 | 836 RV | ±3.5% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | March 19–24 | 48% | 43% | 0% | 5 | 825 RV | ±3.5% |
| NBC4 News/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | February 23–25 | 47% | 38% | 3% | 9 | 625 RV | ±4% |

### Massachusetts

12 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 60% | 31% | 29 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 58% | 33% | 25 | Not reported | ±4% |
| 7NEWS/Suffolk University | February 20–22 | 57% | 34% | 23 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| WBZ-TV/Boston Globe/KRC Communications Research | November 19–22, 2003 | 56% | 38% | 18 | 400 RV | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Merrimack College | September 25–October 5 | 50% | 36% | 2% | 14 | 805 A | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | September 10–13 | 64% | 27% | 4% | 37 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Merrimack College | July 18–28 | 56% | 30% | 3% | 26 | 601 A | ±4.1% |
| 7NEWS/Suffolk University | July 18 | 59% | 30% | 2% | 29 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| University of Massachusetts | May 2–6 | 54% | 30% | 5% | 24 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| University of Massachusetts | March 29–April 5 | 54.2% | 31.5% | 2.2% | 22.7 | 400 LV | ±5% |

### Michigan

17 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 52% | 46% | 6 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 671 LV | ±3.9% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 20–26 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 561 LV | Not reported |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 52% | 42% | 10 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | October 18–20 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 668 LV | ±3.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 13–19 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 6–12 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | October 4–6 | 52% | 42% | 10 | 659 LV | ±3.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 30–October 5 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 23–29 | 46% | 46% | Tied | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Detroit Free Press/Consumer Contact | September 22–28 | 48% | 50% | 2 | 830 RV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 17–23 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 5–11 | 50% | 45% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 27–September 3 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 50% | 45% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | August 22–24 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 548 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group | August 17–19 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | August 2–4 | 52% | 41% | 11 | 608 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 50% | 44% | 6 | Not reported | ±4% |
| American Research Group | July 6–8 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 46% | 44% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | June 28–30 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 594 LV | ±4.1% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | June 22–23 | 44% | 43% | 1 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA | June 2–6 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 46.5% | 43.3% | 3.2 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | May 31–June 2 | 47% | 43% | 4 | 567 LV | ±4.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 47% | 41% | 6 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | April 30–May 2 | 47% | 43% | 4 | 536 LV | ±4.3% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA | April 2–4 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 536 LV | ±4.3% |
| EPIC-MRA | March 28–April 1 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 14–16 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Inside Michigan Politics/Marketing Resource Group | March 8–14 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| EPIC-MRA | February 22–25 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| SurveyUSA | January 31–February 2 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 724 RV | ±3.7% |
| EPIC-MRA | December 17–23, 2003 | 41% | 51% | 10 | 600 RV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications (Daily Tracking) | October 26–28 | 43% | 41% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications (Daily Tracking) | October 23–25 | 45% | 44% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | Not reported |
| EPIC-MRA | October 18–21 | 49% | 43% | 1% | 6 | 610 LV | ±4% |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications (Daily Tracking) | October 17–19 | 43% | 47% | 1% | 4 | 600 LV | Not reported |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 52.6% | 45.9% | 0.4% | 6.7 | 1,228 LV | ±2.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 20–October 5 | 54.1% | 44.4% | 0.3% | 9.7 | 1,207 LV | ±2.8% |
| Inside Michigan Politics/Marketing Resource Group | September 20–24 | 45% | 43% | 1% | 2 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | September 21–22 | 46% | 44% | 1% | 2 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | September 17–21 | 48% | 40% | 1% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| EPIC-MRA | September 15–19 | 48% | 44% | 2% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 51.9% | 45.9% | 0.8% | 6 | 1,139 LV | ±2.9% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 14–16 | 47% | 41% | 2% | 6 | 629 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 10–13 | 50% | 44% | 1% | 6 | 673 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 52% | 45.4% | 0.7% | 6.6 | 1,098 LV | ±3.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 50.5% | 45.3% | 0.7% | 5.2 | 966 LV | ±3.2% |
| American Research Group | August 17–19 | 48% | 45% | 1% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA | August 4–10 | 49% | 42% | 3% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 52.1% | 44.6% | 1.2% | 7.5 | 1,022 LV | ±3.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 52.6% | 43.9% | 1.3% | 8.7 | 985 LV | ±3.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 50% | 44.1% | 1.9% | 5.9 | 863 LV | ±3.3% |
| EPIC-MRA | July 6–8 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | July 6–8 | 50% | 43% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications | June 24–30 | 43% | 44% | 4% | 1 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Fox News/Opinion Research Corporation | June 22–23 | 40% | 42% | 5% | 2 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 46.1% | 46.8% | 2.3% | 0.7 | 916 LV | ±3.2% |
| Los Angeles Times | June 5–8 | 42% | 44% | 4% | 2 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA | June 2–6 | 45% | 43% | 3% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 49.1% | 45.1% | 1.1% | 4 | 1,400 LV | ±2.6% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 49.5% | 41.2% | 2.4% | 7.3 | 612 LV | ±4.0% |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications | May 11–12 | 40% | 44% | 2% | 4 | 413 LV | ±5% |
| EPIC-MRA | March 28–April 1 | 45% | 43% | 3% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | February 26–March 1 | 46% | 40% | 4% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### Minnesota

10 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 25–31 | 48% | 47% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | October 21–26 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 690 LV | ±4% |
| St. Cloud State University | October 19–26 | 49% | 42% | 7 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 18–24 | 46% | 48% | 2 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 11–17 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 772 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 4–10 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 27–October 3 | 48% | 43% | 3 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 18–24 | 48% | 50% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 14–16 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 11–14 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 675 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 27–September 3 | 46% | 46% | Tied | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 48% | 44% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 49% | 42% | 7 | Not reported | ±5% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | July 12–14 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | June 21–July 12 | 49% | 45.8% | 3.2 | 589 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 50% | 41% | 9 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–June 6 | 46.5% | 42.2% | 4.3 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 48% | 43% | 5 | Not reported | ±5% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | May 24–26 | 45% | 41% | 4 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 23 | 47% | 44% | 3 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason Dixon Polling & Research | January 26–28 | 43% | 41% | 2 | 625 RV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 28–30 | 52% | 44% | 1% | 8 | 1,078 LV | ±4% |
| Minnesota Star Tribune | October 26–29 | 49% | 41% | 1% | 8 | 996 LV | ±3.5% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 45% | 47% | 2% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 54.2% | 43.1% | 1.1% | 11.1 | 792 LV | ±3.5% |
| Star Tribune/Market Solutions Group | October 9–11 | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5 | 809 LV | ±3.4% |
| Chicago Tribune/Market Shares Corporation | October 8–11 | 45% | 43% | 2% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30−October 5 | 52.4% | 44.1% | 1.7% | 8.3 | 814 LV | ±3.4% |
| America Coming Together/Hart Research Associates (D) | October 2–4 | 50% | 43% | 1% | 7 | 801 RV | ±3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 51.7% | 42% | 3.9% | 9.7 | 730 LV | ±3.6% |
| Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 11–14 | 44% | 46% | 1% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 11–14 | 45% | 45% | 5% | Tied | 675 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 10–12 | 47% | 45% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 50.3% | 43.5% | 2.8% | 6.8 | 725 LV | ±3.6% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 50.3% | 44.6% | 1% | 5.7 | 673 LV | ±3.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 51.8% | 43.7% | 1.2% | 8.1 | 652 LV | ±3.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 50.6% | 44.2% | 1.7% | 6.4 | 632 LV | ±3.9% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | July 12–14 | 45% | 44% | 1% | 1 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 49.3% | 44.1% | 2% | 5.2 | 573 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 49.8% | 45.2% | 2.5% | 4.6 | 649 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 50.7% | 43.6% | 2.3% | 7.1 | 672 LV | ±3.8% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | May 24–26 | 44% | 41% | 2% | 3 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 51.3% | 42% | 3.4% | 9.3 | 928 LV | ±3.2% |
| Star Tribune | March 28–31 | 50% | 38% | 2% | 12 | 562 LV | ±4.1% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | October 21–26 | 44% | 47% | 5% | 1% | 3 | 690 LV | ±4% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | June 21–July 12 | 46.5% | 44.2% | 4.6% | 1% | 2.3 | 589 RV | ±4% |
Eight-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | David Cobb | Roger Calero | Thomas Harens | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Star Tribune/Market Solutions Group | September 7–13 | 50% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9 | 1,035 LV | ±3% |

### Mississippi

6 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Mississippi State University | April 5–21 | 30% | 61.2% | 31.2 | 300 LV | ±5.8% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 14–17 | 42% | 51% | 1% | 9 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### Missouri

11 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KSDK-TV St. Louis/KOMU-TV Columbia/SurveyUSA | October 29–31 | 47% | 52% | 5 | 694 LV | ±3.8% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Kansas City Star/KMBC-TV/Market Research Institute | October 22–26 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 553 LV | ±4.1% |
| KSDK-TV St. Louis/KOMU-TV Columbia/SurveyUSA | October 23–25 | 45% | 52% | 7 | 680 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 7–20 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| KSDK-TV St. Louis/KOMU-TV Columbia/SurveyUSA | October 16–18 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 670 LV | ±3.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 22–October 5 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| KSDK-TV St. Louis/KOMU-TV Columbia/SurveyUSA | October 2–4 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 683 LV | ±3.8% |
| American Research Group | September 16–19 | 44% | 50% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KSDK-TV St. Louis/KOMU-TV Columbia/SurveyUSA | September 7–9 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 660 LV | ±3.9% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 3–7 | 41% | 55% | 14 | 686 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 20–September 3 | 42% | 48% | 6 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Los Angeles Times | August 21–24 | 44% | 48% | 4 | 580 RV | ±4% |
| KSDK-TV St. Louis/KOMU-TV Columbia/SurveyUSA | August 15–17 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 643 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 46% | 50% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | July 19–22 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 636 LV | ±5% |
| KSDK-TV St. Louis/KOMU-TV Columbia/SurveyUSA | July 6–8 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 755 LV | ±3.6% |
| Los Angeles Times | June 5–8 | 42% | 48% | 6 | 566 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 44% | 48% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 44% | 48.9% | 4.9 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 43% | 44% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 23 | 42% | 49% | 7 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 25–30 | 47.2% | 51.4% | 0.7% | 4.2 | 1,343 LV | ±2.7% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 44% | 49% | 0% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 47.6% | 50.7% | 1.1% | 3.1 | 1,038 LV | ±3.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 47.6% | 49.8% | 1.3% | 2.2 | 1,088 LV | ±3.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 46.1% | 51.5% | 1.1% | 5.4 | 1,037 LV | ±3.0% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 14–16 | 41% | 48% | 1% | 7 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 48.9% | 48.5% | 1.1% | 0.4 | 1,061 LV | ±3.0% |
| Los Angeles Times | August 21–24 | 42% | 46% | 3% | 4 | 580 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 49.3% | 48.8% | 0.9% | 0.5 | 852 LV | ±3.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 48.8% | 48.2% | 0.8% | 0.6 | 949 LV | ±3.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 48.8% | 48.1% | 1.5% | 0.7 | 959 LV | ±3.1% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | July 19–22 | 47% | 47% | 3% | Tied | 636 LV | ±5% |
| Kansas City Star/Market Research Institute | July 13–20 | 46% | 44% | 1% | 2 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 50.1% | 46.8% | 0.7% | 3.3 | 849 LV | ±3.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 47.9% | 48.6% | 1% | 0.7 | 989 LV | ±3.1% |
| Los Angeles Times | June 5–8 | 37% | 48% | 5% | 11 | 566 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 47.6% | 48.6% | 0.9% | 1 | 1,342 LV | ±2.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 47.2% | 43.9% | 2.1% | 3.3 | 520 LV | ±4.3% |
| Suffolk University | February 28–March 2 | 39% | 50% | 5% | 11 | 420 LV | Not reported |

### Montana

3 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Billings Gazette/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | December 8–10, 2003 | 26% | 58% | 32 | 625 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Lee Newspapers/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 18–20 | 36% | 57% | 1% | 21 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Lee Newspapers/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 20–22 | 36% | 54% | 2% | 18 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 7–9 | 32% | 60% | 3% | 28 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Lee Newspapers/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | May 24–26 | 33% | 53% | 6% | 20 | 625 RV | ±4% |
Six-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | David Cobb | Michael Badnarik | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Montana State University Billings | October 7–10 | 34.3% | 55.3% | 2.2% | 0% | 0% | 0.7% | 21 | 411 LV | ±5% |

### Nebraska

5 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Omaha World-Herald/RKM Research Communications | October 15–20 | 32% | 61% | 29 | 1,007 LV | ±3.1% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 9–12 | 30% | 61% | 2% | 31 | 600 LV | ±4% |
1st congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Omaha World-Herald/RKM Research Communications | October 15–20 | 34% | 57% | 23 | Not reported | ±6.2% |
2nd congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Omaha World-Herald/RKM Research Communications | October 15–20 | 36% | 57% | 21 | Not reported | ±4.4% |
3rd congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Omaha World-Herald/RKM Research Communications | October 15–20 | 25% | 68% | 43 | Not reported | ±6.2% |

### Nevada

5 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA | October 30–November 1 | 45% | 53% | 8 | 636 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA | October 28–29 | 49% | 49% | Tied | 535 LV | ±4.3% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 44% | 50% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4.1% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 44% | 48% | 4 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 23 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA | October 16–18 | 45% | 52% | 7 | 585 LV | ±4.1% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA | October 1–3 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 18–21 | 43% | 52% | 9 | 534 LV | ±5% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA | September 11–13 | 47% | 54% | 4 | 526 LV | ±4.4% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA | August 14–16 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 520 LV | ±4.4% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA | July 20–22 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 801 LV | ±3.5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 45.4% | 46.1% | 0.7 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA | February 11–12 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 505 RV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 42% | 52% | 1% | N/A | 10 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 45.9% | 49.8% | 0.4% | N/A | 3.9 | 516 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 48.1% | 47.1% | 0.9% | N/A | 1 | 519 LV | ±4.3% |
| Las Vegas Sun/KLAS-TV Channel 8/KNPR Nevada Public Radio/Belden Russonello & Stewart | September 20−28 | 44% | 48% | 2% | N/A | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) | September 23 | 46% | 47% | N/A | 3% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 46.6% | 48.8% | 1.2% | N/A | 2.2 | 499 LV | ±4.4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 13–14 | 45% | 50% | 1% | N/A | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 12–14 | 45% | 47% | 1% | N/A | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 47.4% | 46.8% | 1.6% | N/A | 0.6 | 564 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 47.7% | 46% | 2.3% | N/A | 1.7 | 501 LV | ±4.4% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) | August 15/16 | 46% | 47% | N/A | 3% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 45.4% | 46% | 1.1% | N/A | 0.6 | 505 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 46.8% | 46.2% | 0.6% | N/A | 0.6 | 503 LV | ±4.4% |
| Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | July 20–22 | 43% | 46% | 4% | N/A | 3 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 43.3% | 45.1% | 5.9% | N/A | 1.8 | 513 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 44.8% | 47.3% | 4.4% | N/A | 2.5 | 512 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 47.3% | 43.8% | 2% | N/A | 3.5 | 472 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 47.3% | 43.5% | 2.8% | N/A | 3.8 | 532 LV | ±4.3% |
| Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | March 15–17 | 38% | 49% | 4% | N/A | 11 | 625 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Las Vegas Sun/KLAS-TV Channel 8/KNPR Nevada Public Radio/Belden Russonello & Stewart | October 16–19 | 43% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### New Hampshire

5 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | October 30–November 1 | 49% | 49% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 16–18 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 3–5 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| America Coming Together/Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D) | September 20–23 | 47% | 47% | Tied | Not reported | ±5% |
| American Research Group | August 3–5 | 50% | 43% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | July 19–21 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | July 6–20 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 459 LV | ±4.5% |
| Becker Institute | June 18–20 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 401 RV | ±4.8% |
| American Research Group | June 7–9 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 45.3% | 44.7% | 0.6 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| University of New Hampshire | April 19–26 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 491 LV | ±4.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 21 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group | March 30–April 1 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | March 15–18 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 463 RV | ±4.6% |
| University of New Hampshire | February 4–12 | 53% | 38% | 15 | 464 RV | Not reported |
| University of New Hampshire | September 30–October 7, 2003 | 38% | 49% | 11 | 498 A | ±4.4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | October 30–November 1 | 48% | 49% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire (Daily Tracking) | October 28–30 | 49% | 48% | 2% | 1 | 716 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 25–30 | 50.2% | 45.7% | 1% | 4.5 | 631 LV | ±3.9% |
| Franklin Pierce College | October 25–27 | 50.1% | 42.5% | 1% | 7.6 | 621 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire (Daily Tracking) | October 25–27 | 50% | 46% | 1% | 4 | 758 LV | ±3.6% |
| Franklin Pierce College | October 18–21 | 50.1% | 41.3% | 1.3% | 8.8 | 453 LV | ±4.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 18 | 49% | 47% | 1% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group | October 16–18 | 46% | 47% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 51.1% | 46% | 1.1% | 5.1 | 510 LV | ±4.3% |
| 7NEWS/Suffolk University | October 14–17 | 46% | 41% | 1% | 5 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 14–16 | 45% | 48% | 1% | 3 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 3–5 | 47% | 47% | 1% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 50.5% | 43.9% | 1.7% | 6.6 | 576 LV | ±4.1% |
| Franklin Pierce College | October 3–4 | 49.1% | 42.3% | 1.1% | 6.8 | 617 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | September 27–October 3 | 45% | 50% | 1% | 5 | 521 LV | ±4.3% |
| Becker Institute | October 2 | 49% | 43% | 2% | 6 | 397 RV | Not reported |
| American Research Group | September 15–17 | 45% | 47% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 48.1% | 44.5% | 1.6% | 3.6 | 538 LV | ±4.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 15 | 51% | 45% | 3% | 6 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 13–15 | 40% | 49% | 3% | 9 | 624 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 49.5% | 44.8% | 1.2% | 4.7 | 553 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 50.5% | 43.3% | 1.4% | 7.2 | 512 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group | August 3–5 | 49% | 42% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 50.7% | 41.8% | 2.3% | 8.9 | 552 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 47.3% | 42.7% | 3.1% | 4.6 | 548 LV | ±4.2% |
| American Research Group | July 19–21 | 47% | 45% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire | July 6–20 | 47% | 43% | 4% | 4 | 459 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 49.3% | 40.3% | 0.8% | 9 | 527 LV | ±4.3% |
| Becker Institute | June 18–20 | 44% | 45% | 4% | 1 | 401 RV | ±4.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 46.2% | 42.9% | 1.7% | 3.3 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| American Research Group | June 7–9 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 48.7% | 44.4% | 1.7% | 4.3 | 503 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 49.5% | 39.9% | 2.2% | 9.6 | 521 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group | March 30–April 1 | 43% | 48% | 3% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | March 15–18 | 39% | 45% | 8% | 6 | 463 RV | ±4.6% |

### New Jersey

15 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 17–30 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| The Star-Ledger/Rutgers University | October 27–29 | 45% | 41% | 4 | 740 LV | ±3.6% |
| WABC-TV New York/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/SurveyUSA | October 27–29 | 54% | 42% | 12 | 794 LV | ±3.5% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | October 21–28 | 47% | 40% | 7 | 549 LV | ±4.5% |
| WABC-TV New York/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/SurveyUSA | October 16–18 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 703 LV | ±3.8% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 14–17 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 786 LV | ±3.5% |
| The Star-Ledger/Rutgers University | October 14–17 | 51% | 38% | 13 | 663 LV | Not reported |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | October 7–11 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 26−October 10 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| The Star-Ledger/Rutgers University | October 1–6 | 47% | 41% | 6 | 571 LV | ±4.1% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | October 1–6 | 49% | 41% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 1–4 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 819 LV | ±3.4% |
| WABC-TV New York/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/SurveyUSA | October 1–3 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 696 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 12–25 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 16–19 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 672 LV | ±3.8% |
| WABC-TV New York/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/SurveyUSA | September 12–14 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 734 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 51% | 43% | 8 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 19–23 | 51% | 39% | 12 | 887 RV | ±3.3% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 30–August 2 | 52% | 38% | 14 | 996 RV | ±3.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 51% | 38% | 13 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | July 20–26 | 45% | 43% | 2 | 834 RV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 51% | 41% | 10 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 15–20 | 49% | 41% | 8 | 1,167 RV | ±2.9% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 48.8% | 41.7% | 7.1 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 51% | 39% | 12 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Quinnipiac University | May 10–16 | 47% | 44% | 3 | 1,122 RV | ±2.9% |
| The Star-Ledger/Rutgers University | April 28–May 4 | 43% | 37% | 6 | 643 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 20 | 51% | 39% | 12 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | April 3–10 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 802 RV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | November 6–10, 2003 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 18–22, 2003 | 43% | 48% | 5 | 968 RV | ±3.2% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 11–16, 2003 | 37% | 53% | 16 | 815 RV | ±3.4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Quinnipiac University | October 27–31 | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5 | 984 LV | ±3.1% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 21–25 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 852 LV | ±3.4% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | October 13–21 | 49% | 41% | 1% | 8 | 503 LV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 14–17 | 49% | 45% | 1% | 4 | 786 LV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 1–4 | 49% | 46% | 2% | 3 | 819 LV | ±3.4% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | September 23–28 | 45% | 44% | 2% | 1 | 489 LV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 16–19 | 48% | 48% | 2% | Tied | 672 LV | ±3.8% |
| American Research Group | September 13–16 | 50% | 42% | 1% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| The Star-Ledger/Rutgers University | September 3–7 | 43% | 39% | 5% | 4 | 738 RV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 19–23 | 49% | 39% | 4% | 10 | 887 RV | ±3.3% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 30–August 2 | 49% | 36% | 6% | 13 | 996 RV | ±3.1% |
| The Star-Ledger/Rutgers University | July 30 | 52% | 32% | 6% | 20 | 624 RV | ±4% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | July 20–26 | 42% | 41% | 6% | 1 | 834 RV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 15–20 | 46% | 40% | 7% | 6 | 1,167 RV | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University | May 10–16 | 46% | 43% | 5% | 3 | 1,122 RV | ±2.9% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | April 3–10 | 44% | 48% | 5% | 4 | 802 RV | ±3.5% |

### New Mexico

5 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 51% | 48% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | October 27–30 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Santa Fe New Mexican/KOB-TV/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | October 16–18 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Santa Fe New Mexican/KOB-TV/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | August 17–19 | 52% | 42% | 10 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | July 6–8 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 47.1% | 43.7% | 3.4 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| American Research Group | March 30–April 1 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | October 27–30 | 48% | 47% | 1% | N/A | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 16–18 | 48% | 46% | 1% | N/A | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 53.6% | 44.1% | 1% | N/A | 9.5 | 526 LV | ±4.3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 3–6 | 47% | 50% | 2% | N/A | 3 | 673 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 53.9% | 42.5% | 1.7% | N/A | 11.4 | 541 LV | ±4.2% |
| America Coming Together/Hart Research Associates (D) | October 2–4 | 49% | 45% | 1% | N/A | 4 | 802 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 54.3% | 41.6% | 2.2% | N/A | 12.7 | 576 LV | ±4.1% |
| Santa Fe New Mexican/KOB-TV/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 15–16 | 43% | 47% | 2% | N/A | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 14–16 | 49% | 44% | 1% | N/A | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 53.6% | 43.9% | 1.1% | N/A | 9.7 | 546 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 49.7% | 44.1% | 0.7% | N/A | 5.6 | 507 LV | ±4.4% |
| American Research Group | August 17–19 | 49% | 42% | 2% | N/A | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) | August 15 | 46% | 46% | N/A | 4% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) | August 4 | 50% | 43% | N/A | 5% | 7 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 49.1% | 47.6% | 0.5% | N/A | 1.5 | 505 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 52% | 42.2% | 0.9% | N/A | 9.8 | 499 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 49.4% | 42.1% | 2.9% | N/A | 7.3 | 516 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group | July 6–8 | 49% | 42% | 3% | N/A | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 50.1% | 43.2% | 1.4% | N/A | 6.9 | 505 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 47.7% | 48.1% | 2.1% | N/A | 0.4 | 558 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 48.4% | 43.3% | 2.9% | N/A | 5.1 | 454 LV | ±4.6% |
| American Research Group | March 30–April 1 | 45% | 46% | 3% | N/A | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc. | October 26–29 | 44% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 3 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) | October 26 | 44% | 48% | 2% | 1% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc. | August 27–September 1 | 42% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 3 | 908 LV | ±3% |
Five-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | David Cobb | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc. | October 1–4 | 46% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3 | 872 LV | ±3% |

### New York

31 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WABC-TV New York City/WRGB-TV Albany/WGRZ-TV Buffalo/SurveyUSA | October 26–28 | 57% | 39% | 18 | 628 LV | ±4% |
| Siena College | October 25–28 | 52% | 37% | 15 | 1,062 LV | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 16–22 | 57% | 36% | 21 | Not reported | ±3% |
| WABC-TV New York City/WRGB-TV Albany/WGRZ-TV Buffalo/SurveyUSA | October 9–11 | 58% | 35% | 23 | 606 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 19–25 | 53% | 41% | 12 | Not reported | ±3% |
| WABC-TV New York City/WRGB-TV Albany/WGRZ-TV Buffalo/SurveyUSA | September 18–20 | 55% | 39% | 16 | 582 LV | ±4.2% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 7–12 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 1,438 RV | ±2.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 56% | 37% | 19 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 3–9 | 55% | 35% | 20 | 1,161 RV | ±2.9% |
| Siena College | July 12–15 | 51% | 29% | 22 | 604 RV | ±4.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 58% | 30% | 28 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 9–14 | 55% | 36% | 19 | 1,466 RV | ±2.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 57% | 34% | 23 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Marist College | April 13–15 | 56% | 38% | 18 | 602 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 5–12 | 53% | 36% | 17 | 1,279 RV | ±2.7% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 29–November 3, 2003 | 50% | 42% | 8 | 1,304 RV | ±2.7% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 23–29, 2003 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 1,201 RV | ±2.8% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 18–23, 2003 | 43% | 48% | 5 | 1,095 RV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 15–21, 2003 | 38% | 50% | 12 | 885 RV | ±3.3% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Marist College | October 25–26 | 57% | 39% | 1% | 18 | 636 LV | ±4% |
| Siena College | September 20–23 | 51% | 31% | 2% | 20 | 1,121 LV | ±2.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 12–18 | 49% | 44% | 2% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group | September 14–16 | 52% | 40% | 1% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Marist College | September 13–14 | 52% | 41% | 3% | 11 | 584 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 7–12 | 47% | 41% | 4% | 6 | 1,438 RV | ±2.6% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 3–9 | 53% | 35% | 4% | 18 | 1,161 RV | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 9–14 | 52% | 34% | 7% | 18 | 1,466 RV | ±2.6% |
| Siena College | April 19–22 | 51% | 32% | 1% | 19 | 625 RV | ±3.9% |
| Marist College | April 13–15 | 54% | 37% | 5% | 17 | 602 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 5–12 | 49% | 35% | 6% | 14 | 1,279 RV | ±2.7% |

### North Carolina

15 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WBTV-Charlotte/WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham/SurveyUSA | October 29–31 | 45% | 53% | 8 | 620 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 24–30 | 43% | 53% | 10 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WRAL/Winston-Salem Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 25–26 | 43% | 52% | 9 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| WBTV-Charlotte/WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham/SurveyUSA | October 22–24 | 44% | 54% | 10 | 694 LV | ±3.8% |
| John Locke Foundation/Tel Opinion Research (R) | October 18–20 | 40% | 48% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 18–19 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 47% | 51% | 4 | Not reported | Not reported |
| WBTV-Charlotte/WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham/SurveyUSA | October 15–17 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 627 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 6 | 47% | 50% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
| WBTV-Charlotte/WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham/SurveyUSA | October 2–4 | 45% | 52% | 7 | 628 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 23–29 | 42% | 54% | 12 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| WRAL/Winston-Salem Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 26–28 | 43% | 52% | 9 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Burr for Senate/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | September 26–27 | 41% | 53% | 12 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 47% | 52% | 5 | Not reported | Not reported |
| American Research Group | September 13–16 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 4–10 | 42% | 55% | 13 | 445 LV | ±5% |
| WBTV-Charlotte/WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham/SurveyUSA | September 6–8 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 587 LV | ±4.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 43% | 53% | 10 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WBTV-Charlotte/WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham/SurveyUSA | August 13–15 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 592 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 45% | 50% | 5 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WBTV-Charlotte/WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham/SurveyUSA | July 24–26 | 44% | 51% | 7 | 906 LV | ±3.3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | July 9–11 | 41% | 56% | 15 | 680 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 42% | 49% | 7 | Not reported | ±5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 43.2% | 49.1% | 5.9 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 44% | 48% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 1–13 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WBTV-Charlotte/WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham/SurveyUSA | February 23–25 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 654 RV | ±3.9% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| League of Conservation Voters/Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) | July 19–22 | 44% | 48% | 3% | N/A | 4 | 600 LV | ±4.0% |
| WRAL-Winston-Salem Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | July 12–13 | 45% | 48% | N/A | 0% | 3 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | July 9–11 | 39% | 54% | 4% | N/A | 15 | 680 LV | ±5% |
| WRAL/Winston-Salem Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | May 14–17 | 41% | 48% | 3% | N/A | 7 | 625 RV | ±4% |

### North Dakota

3 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| The Forum/WDAY-TV/Minnesota State University Moorhead | October 18–19 | 35% | 55% | >1% | 20 | 623 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 9–12 | 33% | 62% | 1% | 29 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### Ohio

20 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | October 30–31 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 700 LV | ±3.7% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA | October 29–31 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 816 LV | ±3.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 28–31 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 1,111 LV | ±3% |
| University of Cincinnati | October 27–31 | 49.2% | 50.1% | 0.9 | 877 LV | ±3.3% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 47% | 44% | 3 | 601 LV | ±4% |
| Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 26–28 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 1,500 LV | ±2.6% |
| Los Angeles Times | October 22–26 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 585 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 20–26 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 537 LV | ±4% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA | October 23–25 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 831 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | October 23–25 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 42% | 47% | 5 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Ohio University | October 17–21 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 358 LV | ±5.3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 18–20 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 706 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | October 17–18 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA | October 16–18 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 698 LV | ±3.8% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 12–18 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 537 LV | ±4% |
| ABC News | October 14–17 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 789 LV | ±3.5% |
| University of Cincinnati | October 11–17 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 757 LV | ±3.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 7–13 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 564 LV | ±4% |
| Chicago Tribune/Market Shares Corporation | October 8–11 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| American Research Group | October 4–6 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA | October 2–4 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 761 LV | ±3.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 25–October 2 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 597 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 25–28 | 48% | 50% | 2 | 664 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 17–23 | 45% | 48% | 3 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | September 21–22 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 12–18 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 668 LV | ±4% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA | September 6–8 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 709 LV | ±3.8% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 3–7 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 661 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 48% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times | August 21–24 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 507 RV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 13–15 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 628 LV | ±5% |
| American Research Group | August 9–11 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 46% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| American Research Group | July 20–22 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | July 19–22 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 639 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 42% | 46% | 4 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | June 22–23 | 43% | 47% | 4 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | June 21–23 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 43.7% | 47.1% | 3.4 | 1,200 LV | ±2.83% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 44% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| American Research Group | May 10–12 | 50% | 43% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Columbus Dispatch | March 23–31 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 3,344 RV | ±2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 14–16 | 45% | 41% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 18–20 | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1 | 706 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | October 17–18 | 45% | 47% | 3% | 2 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 47.6% | 50.6% | 0.4% | 3 | 2,024 LV | ±2.0% |
| American Research Group | October 4–6 | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 49.1% | 48.8% | 0.4% | 0.3 | 1,844 LV | ±2.3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 25–28 | 47% | 49% | 1% | 2 | 664 LV | ±4% |
| America Coming Together/Lake Snell Perry (D) | September 19–23 | 46% | 46% | 1% | Tied | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | September 21–22 | 44% | 48% | 2% | 4 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | September 17–20 | 46% | 48% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| University of Cincinnati | September 12–18 | 43% | 54% | 1% | 11 | 456 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 46.8% | 50.1% | 0.3% | 3.3 | 1,718 LV | ±2.4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 14–15 | 42% | 49% | 2% | 7 | 624 LV | ±4% |
| Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 10–14 | 42% | 50% | 2% | 8 | 1,500 LV | ±2.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 3–7 | 43% | 52% | 2% | 9 | 661 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 42.9% | 53.8% | 0.5% | 10.9 | 1,714 LV | ±2.4% |
| Columbus Dispatch | August 18–27 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 3,176 LV | ±2% |
| Los Angeles Times | August 21–24 | 43% | 46% | 3% | 3 | 507 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 45.8% | 51.4% | 0.8% | 5.6 | 1,392 LV | ±2.6% |
| University of Cincinnati | August 11–17 | 48% | 46% | 1% | 2 | 812 LV | ±3.4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 13–15 | 47% | 45% | 4% | 2 | 628 LV | ±5% |
| American Research Group | August 9–11 | 48% | 45% | 2% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 46.1% | 51.1% | 1% | 5 | 1,571 LV | ±2.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 46.8% | 48.1% | 1.2% | 1.3 | 1,464 LV | ±2.6% |
| Columbus Dispatch | July 14–23 | 44% | 47% | 2% | 3 | 3,047 RV | ±2% |
| American Research Group | July 20–22 | 47% | 45% | 3% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | July 19–22 | 48% | 43% | 5% | 5 | 639 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 48.6% | 47.9% | 0.8% | 0.7 | 1,321 LV | ±2.7% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | June 22–23 | 41% | 45% | 4% | 4 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | June 21–23 | 49% | 43% | 2% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 45.1% | 50.5% | 0.9% | 5.4 | 1,552 LV | ±2.5% |
| Los Angeles Times | June 5–8 | 45% | 42% | 4% | 3 | 722 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 46.3% | 49.1% | 1.2% | 2.8 | 2,231 LV | ±2.8% |
| Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | May 20–25 | 41% | 47% | 3% | 6 | 1,500 RV | ±2.6% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 49.4% | 44.8% | 0.9% | 4.6 | 579 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | May 10–12 | 49% | 42% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Columbus Dispatch | March 23–31 | 43% | 45% | 3% | 2 | 3,344 RV | ±2% |
| University of Cincinnati | March 10–22 | 46% | 44% | 5% | 2 | 632 RV | ±3.9% |
Five-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Columbus Dispatch | September 22–October 1 | 44% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 7 | 2,859 RV | ±2% |

### Oklahoma

7 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KFOR-TV Oklahoma City/KJRH-TV Tulsa/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 34% | 64% | 30 | 662 LV | ±3.7% |
| KWTV/Wilson Research Strategies | October 22–24 | 28% | 61% | 33 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| KFOR-TV Oklahoma City/KJRH-TV Tulsa/SurveyUSA | October 18–20 | 34% | 64% | 30 | 627 LV | ±3.9% |
| KWTV/Wilson Research Strategies | October 15–17 | 31% | 61% | 30 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | October 10–11 | 30% | 64% | 34 | 500 LV | ±4.3% |
| KWTV/Wilson Research Strategies | October 8–10 | 38% | 50% | 12 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| KFOR-TV Oklahoma City/KJRH-TV Tulsa/SurveyUSA | October 4–6 | 33% | 63% | 30 | 613 LV | ±3.9% |
| KWTV/Wilson Research Strategies | October 1–3 | 28% | 58% | 30 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 29 | 30% | 64% | 34 | 500 LV | ±5% |
| KWTV/Wilson Research Strategies | September 24–26 | 31% | 57% | 26 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| KFOR-TV Oklahoma City/KJRH-TV Tulsa/SurveyUSA | September 20–22 | 33% | 64% | 31 | 617 LV | ±3.9% |
| American Research Group | September 15–20 | 38% | 55% | 17 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KWTV/Wilson Research Strategies | September 17–19 | 24% | 64% | 40 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| KWTV/Wilson Research Strategies | September 10–12 | 29% | 59% | 30 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| KWTV/Wilson Research Strategies | September 3–5 | 30% | 61% | 31 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| Carson for Senate/Westhill Partners (D) | September 1–2 | 30% | 64% | 34 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 36% | 59% | 23 | Not reported | ±5% |
| KFOR-TV Oklahoma City/KJRH-TV Tulsa/SurveyUSA | August 16–18 | 38% | 57% | 19 | 596 LV | ±4.1% |
| The Oklahoman/Wilson Research Strategies | August 15–17 | 33% | 58% | 25 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| National Republican Senatorial Committee/Basswood Research (R) | July 29 | 35.5% | 55.5% | 20 | 600 LV | ±4.0% |
| KOTV/Tulsa World/Consumer Logic | July 8–12 | 35% | 59% | 24 | 756 RV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 31% | 63% | 32 | Not reported | ±5% |
| KFOR-TV Oklahoma City/KJRH-TV Tulsa/SurveyUSA | June 21–23 | 34% | 60% | 26 | 651 LV | ±3.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 34% | 58% | 24 | Not reported | ±5% |
| The Oklahoman/Wilson Research Strategies | May 16–19 | 34% | 53% | 19 | 500 RV | ±4.4% |
| The Oklahoman/Wilson Research Strategies | February 16–19 | 40% | 50% | 10 | 300 RV | ±5.7% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| The Marketing Workshop/InsiderAdvantage | March 31–April 1 | 35% | 47% | 2% | 12 | 400 A | ±5% |

### Oregon

7 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| KATU-TV Portland/SurveyUSA | October 25–27 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 687 LV | ±3.8% |
| The Oregonian/KATU-TV/Davis, Hibbitts, & Midghall | October 25–27 | 49% | 43% | 6 | 608 LV | ±3.8% |
| American Research Group | October 25–27 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 6–19 | 52% | 45% | 7 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 15–18 | 53% | 45% | 8 | 700 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | October 9–12 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KATU-TV Portland/SurveyUSA | October 9–11 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 628 LV | ±4% |
| The Oregonian/KATU-TV/Davis, Hibbitts, & Midghall | September 24–27 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 624 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 14–27 | 49% | 45% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| KATU-TV Portland/SurveyUSA | September 19–21 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 747 LV | ±3.7% |
| Zogby International | September 2 | 53% | 43% | 10 | 430 LV | ±4.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 47% | 41% | 6 | Not reported | ±5% |
| American Research Group | July 19–22 | 50% | 43% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 50% | 42% | 8 | Not reported | ±5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 45.8% | 42.3% | 3.5 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 45% | 46% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| KGW-TV Northwest News Channel 8/Riley Research Associates | May 5–10 | 39% | 44% | 5 | 776 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | May 3–5 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 25 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 25–30 | 53.9% | 43.8% | 0.5% | 10.1 | 1,125 LV | ±3.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 55.7% | 42.6% | 0.3% | 13.1 | 890 LV | ±3.3% |
| Riley Research Associates | October 9–13 | 43% | 48% | 1% | 5 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| American Research Group | October 9–12 | 49% | 44% | 2% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 53.8% | 43.7% | 1.2% | 10.1 | 925 LV | ±3.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 53.9% | 41.9% | 1.7% | 12 | 809 LV | ±3.5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 14–16 | 43% | 47% | 1% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 10–13 | 47% | 45% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 52.8% | 43.1% | 1.6% | 9.7 | 787 LV | ±3.5% |
| The Oregonian/Riley Research Associates | August 26–September 1 | 45% | 46% | 1% | 1 | 507 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 53.9% | 42.6% | 1.5% | 11.3 | 708 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 49.9% | 45.9% | 2% | 4 | 644 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 52% | 42.8% | 1.1% | 9.2 | 637 LV | ±3.9% |
| American Research Group | July 19–22 | 50% | 42% | 4% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 51.6% | 42.4% | 2.3% | 9.2 | 575 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 50.9% | 44.3% | 1.2% | 6.6 | 638 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 50.5% | 44.6% | 1% | 5.9 | 666 LV | ±3.8% |
| Moore Information | May 31–June 1 | 44% | 39% | 4% | 5 | 500 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 49.7% | 44.3% | 2.9% | 5.4 | 933 LV | ±3.2% |
| American Research Group | May 3–5 | 45% | 45% | 5% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 25 | 43% | 43% | 8% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| The Oregonian/Davis, Hibbitts, & Midghall | March 4 | 45% | 40% | 5% | 5 | 400 RV | ±5% |

### Pennsylvania

21 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | October 31–November 1 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 657 LV | ±3.9% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | October 29–31 | 51% | 47% | 4 | 766 LV | ±3.6% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 28–31 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 1,082 LV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 27–31 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 1,022 LV | ±3.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 25–31 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| WHYY/West Chester University | October 23–27 | 49.9% | 44.6% | 5.3 | 684 LV | ±3.7% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer/Temple University | October 22–27 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,488 LV | ±3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 23–26 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 670 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 22–26 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 909 LV | ±3.3% |
| Los Angeles Times | October 22–26 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 585 LV | ±4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | October 23–25 | 53% | 45% | 8 | 803 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | October 23–25 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 19–23 | 51% | 46% | 5 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 17–23 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 424 LV | ±4% |
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College | October 17–22 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 787 RV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 16–20 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 841 LV | ±3.4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | October 15–17 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 619 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | October 6–12 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 578 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 9–11 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,343 LV | ±2.7% |
| American Research Group | October 4–6 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | October 3–5 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 776 LV | ±3.6% |
| WHYY/West Chester University | October 1–4 | 50.3% | 43% | 7.3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 25–October 1 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 578 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 25–28 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 654 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 22–26 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 726 LV | ±3.6% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer/Temple University | September 17–24 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,133 LV | ±3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) | September 17–23 | 46% | 47% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 10–16 | 48% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 8–15 | 49% | 49% | Tied | Not reported | Not reported |
| Quinnipiac University | September 11–14 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 792 LV | ±3.5% |
| ABC News | September 9–12 | 48% | 49% | 1 | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 6–12 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 526 LV | ±4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | September 7–9 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 697 LV | ±3.8% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 4–7 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 718 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 23–26 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 729 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 49% | 45% | 4 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 11–16 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 1,430 RV | ±2.6% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | July 30–August 2 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 748 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 46% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times | July 19–21 | 51% | 39% | 12 | 815 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 6–11 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 1,577 RV | ±2.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 48% | 43% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | June 22–23 | 44% | 47% | 3 | 700 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 17–23 | 48% | 43% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 21–22 | 49% | 43% | 6 | 839 RV | ±3.4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | July 7–9 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 684 LV | ±3.8% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 47.1% | 45.6% | 1.5 | 1,200 LV | ±2.83% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 44% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | May 24–25 | 45% | 42% | 3 | 701 RV | ±3.7% |
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College | May 5–14 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
| Bennett, Petts & Associates (D) | May 2–3 | 49% | 43% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 13–19 | 42% | 46% | 4 | 769 RV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 14–16 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 9–15 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 1,022 RV | ±3.1% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA | March 8–10 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 802 RV | ±3.5% |
| Mansfield University | February 15–March 3 | 46.7% | 44.9% | 1.8 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Franklin & Marshall College | February 19–22 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 532 RV | ±4.2% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 10–16 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 1,356 RV | ±2.7% |
| Quinnipiac University | December 11–14 | 42% | 50% | 8 | 1,092 RV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 9–13, 2003 | 43% | 50% | 7 | 1,116 RV | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 30–August 4, 2003 | 37% | 55% | 18 | 1,037 RV | ±3% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 51.8% | 46.1% | 0.4% | 5.7 | 1,402 LV | ±2.6% |
| American Research Group | October 4–6 | 48% | 46% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 51.8% | 46.4% | 0.2% | 5.4 | 1,379 LV | ±2.6% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 30–October 4 | 49% | 43% | 3% | 6 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Pittsburgh Post-Gazette/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 27–28 | 45% | 44% | 2% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 25–28 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 3 | 654 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | September 21–22 | 48% | 45% | 1% | 3 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | September 15–19 | 47% | 46% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 50.6% | 47.5% | 0.1% | 3.1 | 1,185 LV | ±2.9% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 14–16 | 45% | 44% | 1% | 1 | 624 LV | ±4% |
| ABC News | September 9–12 | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3 | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 49.5% | 46.7% | 1% | 2.8 | 1,090 LV | ±3.0% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 23–26 | 47% | 47% | 2% | Tied | 729 LV | ±5% |
| IssuesPA/Pew Charitable Trusts/Princeton Survey Research International | August 13–21 | 44% | 45% | 3% | 1 | 861 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 52.3% | 44% | 1% | 8.3 | 901 LV | ±3.3% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 11–16 | 47% | 42% | 4% | 5 | 1,430 RV | ±2.6% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 2–15 | 48% | 42% | 3% | 6 | 600 RV | ±3.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 52.7% | 44.7% | 0.7% | 8 | 932 LV | ±3.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 51.8% | 45.3% | 0.9% | 6.5 | 881 LV | ±3.3% |
| Los Angeles Times | July 19–21 | 48% | 38% | 5% | 10 | 815 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 6–11 | 46% | 41% | 5% | 5 | 1,577 RV | ±2.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 52.2% | 44.9% | 0.9% | 7.3 | 742 LV | ±3.6% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | June 22–23 | 41% | 46% | 3% | 5 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 21–22 | 44% | 43% | 7% | 1 | 839 RV | ±3.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 51.7% | 44.7% | 1.5% | 7 | 834 LV | ±3.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 51.5% | 44.9% | 0.7% | 6.6 | 723 LV | ±3.6% |
| Quinnipiac University | May 24–25 | 44% | 41% | 6% | 3 | 701 RV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 50.8% | 42.6% | 1.8% | 8.2 | 655 LV | ±3.8% |
| IssuesPA/Pew Charitable Trusts/Princeton Survey Research International | April 16–25 | 42% | 42% | 5% | Tied | 867 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 13–19 | 39% | 45% | 8% | 6 | 769 RV | ±3.5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 25–29 | 40% | 46% | 3% | 6 | 565 RV | ±4.1% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 9–15 | 40% | 44% | 7% | 4 | 1,022 RV | ±3.1% |

### Rhode Island

4 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WLNE-TV Providence/SurveyUSA | October 25–27 | 54% | 31% | 13 | 594 LV | ±4.1% |
| WLNE-TV Providence/SurveyUSA | October 9–11 | 56% | 36% | 20 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| WLNE-TV Providence/SurveyUSA | September 18–20 | 55% | 37% | 18 | 705 LV | ±3.8% |
| Brown University | February 7–9 | 53% | 31% | 22 | 455 RV | ±5% |
| Brown University | September 13–15, 2003 | 39% | 36% | 3 | 367 RV | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 11–13 | 58% | 30% | 4% | 28 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Brown University | June 12–14 | 49% | 25% | 5% | 24 | 477 RV | ±5% |

### South Carolina

8 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WCSC-TV Charleston/SurveyUSA | October 29–31 | 43% | 54% | 11 | 635 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 24–30 | 41% | 55% | 14 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WCSC-TV Charleston/SurveyUSA | October 22–24 | 39% | 57% | 18 | 564 LV | ±4.2% |
| Post and Courier/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 19–20 | 40% | 53% | 13 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| WCSC-TV Charleston/SurveyUSA | October 10–12 | 42% | 55% | 13 | 563 LV | ±4.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 30–October 6 | 42% | 53% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Post and Courier/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 27–29 | 37% | 55% | 18 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| DeMint for Senate/Basswood Research (R) | September 25–26 | 32% | 59% | 27 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 17–23 | 42% | 51% | 9 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WCSC-TV Charleston/SurveyUSA | September 19–21 | 38% | 58% | 20 | 684 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 10–16 | 44% | 50% | 6 | Not reported | ±5% |
| DeMint for Senate/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | September 8–9 | 42% | 54% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Tenenbaum for Senate/Global Strategy Group (D) | September 7–9 | 38% | 54% | 16 | 600 LV | ±4.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 43% | 52% | 9 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WCSC-TV Charleston/SurveyUSA | August 16–18 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 727 LV | ±3.7% |
| WCSC-TV Charleston/SurveyUSA | July 10–12 | 44% | 51% | 7 | 710 LV | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 36% | 53% | 17 | Not reported | ±5% |
| DeMint for Senate/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 28–29 | 40% | 55% | 15 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 39% | 49% | 10 | Not reported | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 14–16 | 40% | 52% | 1% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### South Dakota

3 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 25 | 42% | 54% | 12 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 19–21 | 36% | 55% | 19 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 12 | 42% | 52% | 10 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 29 | 40% | 52% | 12 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| | September 8 | 41% | 54% | 13 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | February 5–7 | 39% | 50% | 11 | 800 RV | ±3.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| National Republican Senatorial Committee/McLaughlin & Associates (R) | October 21, 24 | 32.5% | 54.5% | 1.5% | 22 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| Rapid City Journal/KOTA-TV Rapid City/KSFY-TV Sioux Falls/Mitchell Daily Republic/Watertown Public Opinion/Zogby International | September 24–28 | 29% | 57% | 2% | 28 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 20–22 | 37% | 50% | 2% | 13 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group | September 8–12 | 39% | 58% | 1% | 19 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KOTA-TV/Zogby International | May 19–21 | 34% | 48% | 6% | 14 | 500 LV | ±4% |
| KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | May 10–14 | 35% | 51% | 4% | 16 | 800 RV | ±3.5% |

### Tennessee

11 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA | October 28–30 | 40% | 58% | 18 | 629 LV | ±4% |
| University of Tennessee | October 7–20 | 37% | 54% | 17 | 656 RV | ±3.8% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA | October 17–19 | 38% | 60% | 22 | 615 LV | ±4% |
| Middle Tennessee State University | October 4–15 | 39% | 50% | 11 | 624 A | ±4% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA | October 3–5 | 39% | 58% | 19 | 637 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 16–29 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA | September 20–22 | 41% | 55% | 14 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA | July 31–August 2 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 586 LV | ±4.2% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA | June 19–21 | 41% | 51% | 10 | 700 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 16 | 41% | 49% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 41.6% | 52.3% | 10.7 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| SurveyUSA | March 20–22 | 41% | 52% | 11 | 678 LV | ±3.9% |
| Middle Tennessee State University | February 16–28 | 44% | 48% | 4 | 701 A | ±4% |
| The Tennessean/Chattanooga Times Free Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | January 28–29 | 43% | 47% | 4 | 400 RV | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 25–30 | 47.1% | 50.4% | 0.4% | 3.3 | 1,210 LV | ±2.8% |
| The Tennessean/Chattanooga Times Free Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 19–21 | 41% | 53% | 1% | 12 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 47.8% | 50.3% | 0.1% | 2.5 | 992 LV | ±3.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 47.8% | 48.7% | 0% | 0.9 | 983 LV | ±3.1% |
| American Research Group | September 16–18 | 43% | 50% | 1% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 45.9% | 51.4% | 0.1% | 5.5 | 943 LV | ±3.2% |
| The Tennessean/Chattanooga Times Free Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 11–14 | 37% | 53% | 1% | 16 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30−September 3 | 43.6% | 53.2% | 0.4% | 9.6 | 916 LV | ±3.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 49.6% | 47.7% | 0.3% | 1.9 | 768 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 49.3% | 47.5% | 0.6% | 1.8 | 821 LV | ±3.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 49.1% | 46.9% | 0.6% | 2.1 | 791 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 47.5% | 47.5% | 0.9% | Tied | 708 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 38.6% | 57.4% | 0.8% | 18.8 | 786 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 42.6% | 54.3% | 1% | 11.7 | 715 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 46.8% | 49.3% | 0.6% | 2.5 | 1,057 LV | ±3.0% |

### Texas

34 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KPRC-TV Houston/KEYE-TV Austin/WOAI-TV San Antonio/SurveyUSA | October 26–28 | 37% | 59% | 22 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| Scripps Howard | October 11–28 | 32% | 58% | 26 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KPRC-TV Houston/KEYE-TV Austin/WOAI-TV San Antonio/SurveyUSA | October 9–11 | 37% | 60% | 23 | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| KPRC-TV Houston/KEYE-TV Austin/WOAI-TV San Antonio/SurveyUSA | September 19–21 | 37% | 58% | 21 | 642 LV | ±3.9% |
| Scripps Howard | August 9–26 | 33% | 57% | 24 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 38% | 57% | 19 | Not reported | ±3% |
| KPRC-TV Houston/KEYE-TV Austin/WOAI-TV San Antonio/SurveyUSA | August 20–22 | 37% | 58% | 21 | 705 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 37% | 55% | 18 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 38% | 55% | 17 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Scripps Howard | May 3–15 | 29% | 58% | 29 | 1,000 A | ±3% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 16–20 | 36% | 58% | 1% | 22 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### Utah

5 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates | February 19 | 31% | 64% | 33 | 404 A | ±5.0% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates | October 21–28 | 24% | 69% | 1% | 45 | 1,228 RV | ±2.8% |
| Salt Lake Tribune/KUTV 2 News/Valley Research | October 21–26 | 23.3% | 68.3% | 2.3% | 45 | 1,200 RV | ±2.8% |
| American Research Group | September 10–13 | 27% | 64% | 4% | 37 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates | September 6–9 | 25% | 65% | 2% | 40 | 915 RV | ±3.3% |
| Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates | May 10–13 | 22% | 67% | 3% | 45 | 923 A | ±3.2% |

### Vermont

3 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 9–12 | 50% | 40% | 4% | 10 | 600 LV | ±4% |

### Virginia

13 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA | October 27–29 | 47% | 51% | 4 | 606 LV | ±4.1% |
| NBC12 News/Richmond-Times Dispatch | October 20–26 | 40% | 49% | 9 | 751 LV | ±4% |
| The Daily Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 22–25 | 44% | 50% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA | October 16–18 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 664 LV | ±3.9% |
| Zogby International | September 30–October 6 | 47% | 50% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
| The Daily Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 24–27 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 24–27 | 44% | 50% | 6 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA | September 21–23 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 744 LV | ±3.7% |
| American Research Group | September 12–14 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International | August 29 | 48% | 49% | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 45% | 50% | 5 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA | August 20–22 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 730 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 46% | 49% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA | July 6–8 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 686 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 45% | 48% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 41.9% | 50.3% | 8.4 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | May 1–31 | 45% | 47% | 2 | Not reported | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Zogby International | September 13–17 | 47% | 50% | 3% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |

### Washington

11 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | October 29–31 | 51% | 47% | 4 | 622 LV | ±4% |
| Seattle Post-Intelligencer/KOMO-TV/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 25–26 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | October 23–25 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 618 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 6–19 | 52% | 44% | 8 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | October 15–17 | 52% | 45% | 7 | 634 LV | ±4% |
| Elway Research | October 14–16 | 50% | 44% | 6 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | October 2–4 | 54% | 43% | 11 | 640 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 10–23 | 50% | 43% | 7 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | September 19–21 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 627 LV | ±4% |
| Elway Research | September 17–19 | 52% | 38% | 14 | 405 RV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 49% | 42% | 7 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | July 1–31 | 50% | 44% | 6 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | June 1–30 | 50% | 41% | 9 | Not reported | ±5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 49.4% | 42.9% | 6.5 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Murray for Senate/Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) | April 22–27 | 46% | 42% | 4 | 800 RV | ±3.8% |
| Moore Information | April 18–19 | 45% | 41% | 4 | 500 RV | ±5% |
| Elway Research | April 2–5 | 46% | 41% | 5 | 405 RV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | March 25 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | March 21–23 | 47% | 43% | 4 | 698 LV | ±3.8% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | February 3–4 | 55% | 43% | 12 | 975 RV | ±3.2% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 25–30 | 54.6% | 43.4% | 0.3% | 11.2 | 1,832 LV | ±2.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 54.3% | 43.9% | 0.4% | 10.4 | 1,440 LV | ±2.6% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 53.7% | 43.8% | 0.7% | 9.9 | 1,418 LV | ±2.6% |
| The Columbian/Ipsos | September 17–20 | 51% | 42% | 2% | 9 | 406 RV | ±4.9% |
| American Research Group | September 9–13 | 51% | 44% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 3–6 | 52% | 44% | 1% | 8% | 646 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 52.7% | 44.2% | 0.5% | 8.5 | 1,265 LV | ±2.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 53.1% | 44.7% | 0.6% | 8.4 | 1,038 LV | ±3.0% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | August 15–17 | 51% | 43% | 2% | 8 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| Moore Information | August 14–15 | 50% | 44% | 4% | 6 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | July 31–August 2 | 51% | 43% | 3% | 8 | 585 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 52.6% | 44.8% | 1.2% | 7.8 | 1,162 LV | ±2.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 52% | 44.4% | 1.5% | 7.6 | 1,155 LV | ±2.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 52.6% | 44.4% | 0.8% | 8.2 | 1,073 LV | ±3.0% |
| Murray for Senate/Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) | June 24–28 | 49% | 41% | 4% | 8 | 800 RV | ±3.8% |
| Moore Information | June 23–24 | 43% | 43% | 4% | Tied | 500 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 51.6% | 45.2% | 1% | 6.4 | 1,246 LV | ±2.8% |
| Moore Information | June 9–11 | 45% | 44% | 4% | 1 | 500 RV | ±4% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | June 9–11 | 46% | 42% | 2% | 4 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 51.7% | 44.3% | 1.9% | 7.4 | 1,767 LV | ±2.3% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA | June 1–3 | 49% | 44% | 3% | 5 | 654 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 52.5% | 44.4% | 1.3% | 8.1 | 527 LV | ±4.3% |

### West Virginia

5 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 17–20 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 619 LV | ±5% |
| American Research Group | July 26–28 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | June 15–17 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 44.2% | 47.1% | 2.9 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 15 | 41% | 46% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group | March 23–24 | 46% | 47% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 25–30 | 45.6% | 50.1% | 0.2% | 4.5 | 584 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 45.8% | 48.6% | 0.7% | 2.8 | 501 LV | ±4.4% |
| Manchin for Governor/Global Strategy Group (D) | October 12–14 | 45% | 47% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 44% | 50.1% | 0.7% | 6.1 | 501 LV | ±4.4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 17–20 | 45% | 51% | 0% | 6 | 619 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 38.8% | 51.2% | 1.1% | 12.4 | 528 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group | September 14–16 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 13–14 | 44% | 45% | 0% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 40.1% | 49.1% | 2.1% | 9 | 532 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 41.5% | 49.3% | 1.8% | 7.8 | 504 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 47.6% | 44.2% | 2.1% | 3.4 | 517 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group | July 26–28 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 44% | 47.9% | 2.1% | 3.9 | 512 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 42.8% | 51% | 0.5% | 8.2 | 518 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 43.1% | 49.1% | 1.4% | 6 | 467 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group | June 15–17 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 46.6% | 43.5% | 2.4% | 3.1 | 490 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 45.9% | 48.3% | 2% | 2.4 | 504 LV | ±4.4% |
| Associated Press/Ipsos | April 26–29 | 45% | 49% | 3% | 4 | 984 RV | ±3.1% |
| American Research Group | March 23–24 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 16 | 44% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 6 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |

### Wisconsin

10 electoral votes (Democrat in 1996) (Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 29–November 1 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 27–29 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | October 16–29 | 48% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 25–28 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | October 25–27 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) | October 21–24 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | October 16–19 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 16–19 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 678 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 3–5 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 704 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 14–27 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| ABC News | September 16–19 | 44% | 54% | 10 | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 9–12 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 631 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 1–12 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 23–26 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 645 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | August 1–26 | 48% | 45% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Los Angeles Times | August 21–24 | 44% | 48% | 4 | 512 LV | Not reported |
| American Research Group | July 13–15 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Hubert Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | June 21–July 12 | 45.9% | 48.4% | 2.5 | 575 RV | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times | June 5–8 | 44% | 44% | Tied | 694 RV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 1–6 | 47.2% | 44.6% | 2.6 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 25 | 50% | 42% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) | March 23–31 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 500 A | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation | October 30–31 | 45% | 48% | 1% | 3 | 700 LV | ±3.7% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 27–30 | 44% | 52% | 1% | 8 | 1,119 LV | ±3% |
| American Research Group | October 25–27 | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) | October 23–27 | 45% | 48% | 3% | 3 | 545 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group | October 16–19 | 47% | 47% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 16–19 | 44% | 50% | 3% | 6 | 678 LV | ±4% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | October 14–19 | 47% | 48% | 2% | 1 | 623 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | October 15–18 | 45% | 45% | 1% | Tied | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | October 13–18 | 51.3% | 47.5% | 0.2% | 3.8 | 883 LV | ±3.3% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College | October 4–13 | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5 | 401 LV | ±5% |
| Chicago Tribune/Market Shares Corp. | October 8–11 | 47% | 43% | 2% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | October 3–5 | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3 | 704 LV | ±4% |
| America Coming Together/Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D) | October 3–5 | 48% | 44% | 1% | 4 | 600 LV | Not reported |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 30–October 5 | 50.6% | 48.1% | 0.1% | 2.5 | 844 LV | ±3.4% |
| Wisconsin Policy Research Institute/Harris Interactive | September 22–26 | 40% | 50% | 6% | 10 | 562 LV | ±4% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) | September 15–21 | 38% | 52% | 4% | 14 | Not reported | Not reported |
| ABC News | September 16–19 | 43% | 53% | 1% | 10 | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | September 13–17 | 50.3% | 47.9% | 0.3% | 2.4 | 771 LV | ±3.5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research | September 14–16 | 44% | 46% | 1% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group | September 12–15 | 46% | 46% | 1% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | September 9–12 | 44% | 52% | 1% | 8 | 631 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 30–September 3 | 49.9% | 47.5% | 0.1% | 2.4 | 732 LV | ±3.6% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup | August 23–26 | 45% | 48% | 4% | 3 | 645 LV | ±5% |
| Los Angeles Times | August 21–24 | 44% | 45% | 3% | 1 | 512 LV | Not reported |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | August 16–21 | 50.8% | 46.4% | 0.3% | 4.4 | 638 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 26–30 | 49.7% | 47.8% | 0.2% | 1.9 | 634 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 19–23 | 50.3% | 46% | 0.7% | 4.3 | 601 LV | ±4.0% |
| American Research Group | July 13–15 | 48% | 42% | 4% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | July 6–10 | 53.3% | 43.9% | 0.7% | 9.4 | 551 LV | ±4.2% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) | June 15–23 | 42% | 46% | 5% | 4 | 504 A | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 15–20 | 50.6% | 46.2% | 0.7% | 4.4 | 602 LV | ±4.0% |
| Los Angeles Times | June 5–8 | 42% | 44% | 4% | 2 | 694 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | June 1–6 | 50.4% | 44.5% | 1.3% | 5.9 | 646 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive | May 18–23 | 51.9% | 43.7% | 1.4% | 8.2 | 841 LV | ±3.4% |
| America Coming Together/Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D) | April 26–28 | 49% | 40% | 2% | 9 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Journal Sentinel/Capital Times/University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) | April 20–28 | 38% | 50% | 6% | 12 | 511 A | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | April 25 | 45% | 41% | 8% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College | April 14–21 | 49% | 42% | 7% | 7 | 385 RV | ±5% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) | March 23–31 | 41% | 47% | 5% | 6 | 500 A | ±4% |
| American Research Group | March 23–25 | 46% | 43% | 4% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) | October 14 | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Hubert Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut | June 21–July 12 | 44.6% | 46.1% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5 | 575 RV | ±4% |

### Wyoming

3 electoral votes (Republican in 1996) (Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
| American Research Group | September 9–11 | 29% | 65% | 2% | 36 | 600 LV | ±4% |