# 2023 Bavarian state election

The 2023 Bavarian state election was held on 8 October 2023 to elect the members of the 19th Landtag of Bavaria. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) and the Free Voters of Bavaria (FW) led by Minister-President of Bavaria Markus Söder. The 2023 Hessian state election was held the same day.
The CSU remained the largest party with only a slight decline to 37%. The Free Voters improved to second place with 16%, their best result to date. The opposition Alternative for Germany (AfD) was a close third on 15%. The Greens declined to 14%, followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) on a historic low of 8%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell to 3% and lost their seats.
Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority thanks to the Free Voters' gains. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the federal government, with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal opinion polling.

## Election organisation
### Election date and preparation deadlines

According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election must be held on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the preceding state election unless the Landtag is dissolved early, in this case the new election shall be held at the latest on the sixth Sunday after the dissolution. The preceding state election took place on 14 October 2018. This would allow an election date between 17 September and 10 December 2023. The elections since 1978 have always taken place between mid-September and mid-October. The Bavarian state government proposed 8 October 2023 as the election date on 15 November 2022 and officially set it on 13 December 2022 after hearing the parties to the state parliament. At the same day elections of the Bezirktags, two District Administrators and some Mayors take place.
The deadline for determining the population figures, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 Landtag mandates among the seven Bavarian administrative districts and possible changes of the electoral districts, was 14 July 2021 (33 months after the election of the previous Landtag). On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a constituency report to the Landtag until 36 months after the election. This was done on 12 October 2021.
Delegates to the internal meetings of the parties can be appointed at the earliest 43 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 May 2022. The actual district candidates are eligible at the earliest 46 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 August 2022. The parties and other organised electoral groups which have not been represented continuously in the Bavarian Landtag or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals (CDU, CSU, SPD, Free Voters of Bavaria, Alliance 90/The Greens, FDP, Die Linke, AfD) have to notify their intention to participate to the State Election Commissioner by the 90th day before the election. The actual election proposals and any necessary signatures have to be submitted by the 73rd day before the election.

### Electoral system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district. Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method. There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (Wahlkreise) in the constitution. The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.
Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria (sum of first and second votes, meaning party votes and local district contest votes) participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (Stimmkreise), in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first (only) round.
The number of local "electoral districts" (91) is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies" (89). In addition, 23 seats may be allocated as levelling seats or to compensate for overhang.

## Campaign
### Free Voters

In August 2023, the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on a pamphlet with antisemitic contents that Hubert Aiwanger may have authored and distributed at his high school some 35 years ago as a 17-year-old. Aiwanger admitted to carrying copies in his satchel but denied writing the document. His older brother, a student at the same school at the time, later took responsibility for writing the antisemitic pamphlet itself. The Süddeutsche Zeitung drew some criticism for publishing the story six weeks before the election, without conclusive evidence and without talking to Aiwanger before publication. Bavarian premier Markus Söder demanded that Aiwanger answer 25 questions on the matter, including whether Aiwainger had actively distributed the antisemitic pamphlet. Aiwanger claimed multiple times to "not remember." Aiwanger's responses were heavily criticised as short and evasive.
In his response to a question about other incidents, Aiwanger shortly mentioned that he remembers an unrelated incident in the arts class and noted a caution against breach of secrecy.
Despite the story, Aiwanger's party, Free Voters, saw an increase in support in the polls.

### AfD

On 4 October 2023, Tino Chrupalla was at an election campaign appearance in Ingolstadt. Before his speech he collapsed and came to the intensive care unit of a local hospital. What exactly led to the hospitalisation is unclear.

## Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 18th Landtag of Bavaria.
| Name | Name | Name | Leaders | Ideology | 2018 result | 2018 result | 2023 |
| Name | Name | Name | Leaders | Ideology | Votes (%) | Seats | Seats |
| | CSU | Christian Social Union in Bavaria Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | Markus Söder | Christian democracy | 37.2% | 85 / 205 | 82 / 205 |
| | Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | Thomas von Sarnowski Eva Lettenbauer | Green politics | 17.6% | 38 / 205 | 38 / 205 |
| | FW | Free Voters of Bavaria Freie Wähler Bayern | Hubert Aiwanger | Conservatism | 11.6% | 27 / 205 | 27 / 205 |
| | AfD | Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland | Stephan Protschka | German nationalism Right-wing populism | 10.2% | 22 / 205 | 17 / 205 |
| | SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | Florian von Brunn Ronja Endres | Social democracy | 9.7% | 22 / 205 | 21 / 205 |
| | FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei | Martin Hagen | Classical liberalism | 5.1% | 11 / 205 | 12 / 205 |
| | Independents | Independents | - | - | - | 0 / 205 | 8 / 205 |

## Opinion polls
### Party polling

| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CSU | Grüne | FW | AfD | SPD | FDP | Linke | Lead |
| 2023 state election | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 37.0 | 14.4 | 15.8 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 21.2 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Oct 2023 | 985 | 37.5 | 15.5 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–5 Oct 2023 | 1,209 | 37 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 3 | – | 21 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 | 1,002 | 37 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 7.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 22 |
| INSA | 25 Sep – 2 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 36 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| Civey | 24 Sep – 1 Oct 2023 | 2,121 | 37 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25–28 Sep 2023 | 1,222 | 36 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | – | 20 |
| Infratest dimap | 25–27 Sep 2023 | 1,512 | 36 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 4 | – | 20 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14–20 Sep 2023 | 1,021 | 37 | 15 | 17.5 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 3 | 1 | 19.5 |
| Civey | 13–20 Sep 2023 | 5,002 | 38 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| GMS | 13–18 Sep 2023 | 1,004 | 36 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| Infratest dimap | 5–9 Sep 2023 | 1,171 | 36 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 3 | – | 19 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,254 | 36 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 4 | – | 20 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,004 | 41 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 15 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 25.5 |
| GMS | 4–6 Sep 2023 | 1,003 | 38 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| Civey | 30 Aug – 6 Sep 2023 | 5,003 | 36 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| INSA | 1–5 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Aug – 4 Sep 2023 | 1,400 | 42 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 27 |
| Civey | 9–23 Aug 2023 | 5,502 | 38 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14–19 Aug 2023 | 1,892 | 37 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| Civey | 26 Jul – 9 Aug 2023 | 5,505 | 39 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| GMS | 2–8 Aug 2023 | 1,002 | 39 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 27–31 Jul 2023 | 1,042 | 40 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 16.5 | 10 | 3 | 0.5 | 23.5 |
| Forsa | 24–28 Jul 2023 | 1,012 | 39 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| INSA | 17–24 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | 38 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| Civey | 30 Jun – 14 Jul 2023 | 5,500 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Jun – 4 Jul 2023 | 1,300 | 39 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 1.5 | 23 |
| GMS | 28 Jun – 3 Jul 2023 | 1,006 | 40 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| Civey | 2–6 Jun 2023 | 5,501 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| GMS | 31 May – 5 Jun 2023 | 1,001 | 41 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 21–24 May 2023 | 1,100 | 41 | 12.5 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 1.5 | 28.5 |
| INSA | 16–22 May 2023 | 1,000 | 40 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 25 |
| Infratest dimap | 9–13 May 2023 | 1,176 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 4 | – | 23 |
| Civey | 28 Apr – 12 May 2023 | 5,503 | 43 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| GMS | 26 Apr – 2 May 2023 | 1,005 | 41 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| Forsa | 20–28 Apr 2023 | 1,009 | 41 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 |
| Civey | 1 May – 14 May 2023 | 5,503 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Mar – 6 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 44 | 14.5 | 12 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 5 | 1 | 29.5 |
| INSA | 27 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| Civey | 3–17 Mar 2023 | 5,502 | 41 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 23 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14–19 Feb 2023 | 1,008 | 43 | 17.5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 25.5 |
| Forsa | 8–16 Feb 2023 | 1,022 | 42 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 3 | – | 26 |
| Civey | 2–16 Feb 2023 | 5,503 | 39 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 13–17 Jan 2023 | 1,040 | 43 | 17.5 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 25.5 |
| Civey | 29 Dec – 12 Jan 2023 | 5,499 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| Infratest dimap | 4–9 Jan 2023 | 1,190 | 38 | 18 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 4 | – | 20 |
| INSA | 2–9 Jan 2023 | 1,000 | 40 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| GMS | 28 Dec 2022–3 Jan 2023 | 1,003 | 41 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| Civey | 2–16 Dec 2022 | 5,502 | 40 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 2–5 Dec 2022 | 1,944 | 43 | 17.5 | 11.5 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 25.5 |
| Civey | 6–20 Nov 2022 | 5,501 | 41 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Oct–3 Nov 2022 | 1,040 | 42 | 19 | 11.5 | 11 | 6 | 5.5 | 1 | 23 |
| GMS | 19–25 Oct 2022 | 1,002 | 39 | 18 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| Forsa | 17–25 Oct 2022 | 1,083 | 41 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| INSA | 10–17 Oct 2022 | 1,000 | 39 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 19 |
| Civey | 30 Sep – 14 Oct 2022 | 5,501 | 39 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–11 Oct 2022 | 1,157 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 3 | – | 19 |
| GMS | 14–20 Sep 2022 | 1,004 | 40 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 |
| Civey | 3–17 Sep 2022 | 5,511 | 40 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 6–13 Sept 2022 | 1,371 | 42 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 21 |
| Civey | 29 Jul – 12 Aug 2022 | 5,501 | 37 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 1–3 Aug 2022 | 1,100 | 41 | 22 | 9.5 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| Civey | 1–15 Jul 2022 | 5,505 | 38 | 22 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 22–29 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | 39.5 | 18.5 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| INSA | 20–27 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | 37 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 17 |
| GMS | 15–20 Jun 2022 | 1,002 | 40 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| Civey | 3–17 Jun 2022 | 5,501 | 39 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 20 |
| Forsa | 23 May–3 Jun 2022 | 1,049 | 40 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| Civey | 29 Apr – 13 May 2022 | 2,458 | 36 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| Forsa | 27 Apr–13 May 2022 | 1,235 | 39 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 27 Apr–3 May 2022 | 1,053 | 40 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 24 |
| GMS | 20–25 Apr 2022 | 1,005 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 22 |
| Civey | 1–15 Apr 2022 | 3,009 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 17 |
| GMS | 23–28 Feb 2022 | 1,002 | 37 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 22 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18–23 Feb 2022 | 1,700 | 36.5 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 20.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 13–17 Jan 2022 | 1,171 | 36 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 7 | – | 20 |
| GMS | 29 Dec 2021–3 Jan 2022 | 1,005 | 35 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 20 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–14 Dec 2021 | 1,430 | 33.5 | 16.5 | 11 | 8 | 16.5 | 8 | 2 | 17 |
| INSA | 4–11 Oct 2021 | 1,000 | 32 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 12 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 31.7 | 14.1 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 18.0 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 13.7 |
| GMS | 21–27 Jul 2021 | 1,003 | 39 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 19 |
| INSA | 12–19 Jul 2021 | 1,000 | 37 | 22 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 16 |
| Forsa | 10–17 May 2021 | 1,016 | 38 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| INSA | 22–27 Apr 2021 | 1,400 | 36 | 24 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
| GMS | 24–29 Mar 2021 | 1,005 | 40 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 20 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 13–18 Mar 2021 | – | 37 | 20 | 12 | 7.5 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| GMS | 10–15 Feb 2021 | 1,003 | 47 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 |
| INSA | 21–26 Jan 2021 | 1,016 | 46 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 28 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–11 Jan 2021 | 1,000 | 48 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| GMS | 29 Dec 2020–4 Jan 2021 | 1,005 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 6–13 Nov 2020 | – | 47 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 29 |
| GMS | 4–9 Nov 2020 | 1,004 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 28 |
| GMS | 7–12 Oct 2020 | 1,003 | 46 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 |
| Infratest dimap | 30 Sep–5 Oct 2020 | 1,001 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 27–31 Aug 2020 | – | 46 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 6.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 28 |
| GMS | 17–20 Aug 2020 | 1,005 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 11–14 Aug 2020 | – | 43 | 21 | 9 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| INSA | 5–10 Aug 2020 | 1,001 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| GMS | 22–27 Jul 2020 | 1,004 | 49 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
| Infratest dimap | 15–22 Jul 2020 | 1,003 | 49 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 11–16 Jun 2020 | – | 50 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 34 |
| GMS | 9–16 Jun 2020 | 1,002 | 48 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 32 |
| Infratest dimap | 20–25 May 2020 | 1,000 | 48 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| INSA | 19–25 May 2020 | 1,014 | 46 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 29 |
| GMS | 28 Apr–4 May 2020 | 1,006 | 47 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 32 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 20–23 Apr 2020 | – | 50 | 13.5 | 8 | 6.5 | 11 | 4 | 2.5 | 36.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–8 Apr 2020 | – | 49 | 21 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
| Infratest dimap | 2–6 Apr 2020 | 1,003 | 49 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 10 | – | 3 | 32 |
| Civey | 15 Mar – 5 Apr 2020 | 4,535 | 44.1 | 19.6 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 24.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 16–20 Mar 2020 | – | 46 | 23.5 | 7.5 | 6 | 7.5 | 3 | 3 | 22.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 5 Mar 2020 | – | 40.5 | 26 | 9 | 6.5 | 8 | 3 | 3.5 | 14 |
| GMS | 17–24 Feb 2020 | 1,006 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| Infratest dimap | 8–13 Jan 2020 | 1,004 | 36 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| GMS | 27 Dec – 2 Jan 2020 | 1,004 | 38 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 18 |
| GMS | 1–7 Oct 2019 | 1,005 | 37 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| INSA | 16–23 Sep 2019 | 1,034 | 36 | 22 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| GMS | 17–22 Jul 2019 | 1,003 | 37 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| GMS | 18–24 Jun 2019 | 1,005 | 37 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 2019 EP election | 26 May 2019 | – | 40.7 | 19.1 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 21.6 |
| Civey | 29 Mar – 26 Apr 2019 | 5,016 | 36.4 | 20.8 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 15.6 |
| Civey | 1–29 Mar 2019 | 4,515 | 38.1 | 20.3 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 17.8 |
| Forsa | 22–25 Jan 2019 | 1,003 | 38 | 23 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| Infratest dimap | 3–7 Jan 2019 | 1,003 | 35 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 14 |
| GMS | 27 Dec – 2 Jan 2019 | 1,003 | 38 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 2018 state election | 14 Oct 2018 | – | 37.2 | 17.6 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 19.6 |

### Minister-President polling

| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | Lead |
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SöderCSU | HartmannGrüne | AiwangerFree Voters | BöhmAfD | von BrunnSPD | Lead |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 57 | 14 | – | – | – | 43 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–6 Oct 2023 | 985 | 44 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–5 Oct 2023 | 1,209 | 54 | 20 | – | – | – | 34 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 | 1,002 | 41 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 27 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25–28 Sep 2023 | 1,222 | 54 | 19 | – | – | – | 35 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14–20 Sep 2023 | 1,021 | 50 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,254 | 54 | 19 | – | – | – | 35 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–7 Sep 2023 | 1,004 | 52 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| INSA | 1–5 Sep 2023 | 1,000 | 45 | 7 | 13 | – | – | 32 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Aug – 4 Sep 2023 | 1,400 | 48 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 39 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14–19 Aug 2023 | 1,892 | 43 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 29 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14–19 Feb 2023 | 1,008 | 55 | 10 | 13 | – | 10 | 42 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 13–17 Jan 2023 | 1,040 | 53 | 15 | 12 | – | 9 | 38 |

## Election result

Summary of the 8 October 2023 election results for the Landtag of Bavaria :
| Party | Party | Constituency | Constituency | Constituency | Party list | Party list | Total seats | +/- |
| Party | Party | Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | Total seats | +/- |
| | Christian Social Union | 2,527,810 | 37.0 | 85 | 2,531,761 | 37.1 | 85 | 0 |
| | Free Voters of Bavaria | 1,078,037 | 15.8 | 2 | 1,085,812 | 15.9 | 37 | +10 |
| | Alternative for Germany | 1,008,195 | 14.7 | 0 | 992,240 | 14.5 | 32 | +10 |
| | Alliance 90/The Greens | 983,631 | 14.4 | 4 | 989,094 | 14.5 | 32 | -6 |
| | Social Democratic Party of Germany | 587,964 | 8.6 | 0 | 552,789 | 8.1 | 17 | -5 |
| | Free Democratic Party | 205,677 | 3.0 | 0 | 208,210 | 3.1 | 0 | -11 |
| | Ecological Democratic Party | 127,419 | 1.9 | 0 | 117,805 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| | The Left | 101,357 | 1.5 | 0 | 99,521 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| | Bavaria Party | 72,325 | 1.1 | 0 | 57,155 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| | Grassroots Party | 55,600 | 0.8 | 0 | 63,889 | 0.9 | 0 | New |
| | Animal Protection Party | 25,811 | 0.4 | 0 | 43,981 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| | Die PARTEI | 32,378 | 0.5 | 0 | 31,776 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| | Volt Germany | 15,785 | 0.2 | 0 | 25,909 | 0.4 | 0 | New |
| | V-Partei³ | 11,061 | 0.2 | 0 | 11,764 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| | Party of Humanists | 3,609 | 0.1 | 0 | 10,417 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | Total | 6,836,659 | 100.00 | 91 | 6,822,123 | 100.00 | 203 | -2 |
| Invalid | Invalid | 58,425 | 0.8 | | 72,715 | 1.1 | | |
| Turnout | Turnout | | | | 6,895,807 | 73.1 | +0.8 | |
| Registered voters | Registered voters | | | | 9,430,600 | | | |
* ↑ Erststimmen, local "Stimmkreis" votes
* ↑ Zweitstimmen, regional "Wahlkreis" votes
Popular vote
CSU
37.04%
FW
15.84%
AFD
14.65%
Grünen
14.44%
SPD
8.35%
FDP
3.03%
ÖDP
1.80%
LINKE
1.47%
BP
0.95%
Others
2.43% :
Seats
CSU
41.87%
FW
18.23%
AFD
15.76%
Grünen
15.76%
SPD
8.37% :
* CSU vote
* FW vote
* AfD vote
* Linke vote
* SPD vote
* Green vote
* FDP vote

## Aftermath and state government formation

After the election, the state government was again formed as a coalition between CSU and FW. Markus Söder was re-elected Minister-President by the Landtag on 31 October, with 120 votes for, 76 votes against, and two abstentions. He formed the Third Söder cabinet.
AfD politician Daniel Halemba was elected to the Bavarian State Parliament in the 2023 Bavarian state election. On 27 October, three days before the constituent session, an arrest warrant was issued against him. Halemba was arrested on the morning of 30 October 2023 in Kirchheim unter Teck on suspicion of incitement to hatred and the use of signs of anti-constitutional organizations.