# 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary

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The 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary was held on March 1, 2016, along with ten other state nominating contests during Super Tuesday.
Donald Trump held a big edge in Vermont polls, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio splitting much of the rest of the vote. However, on election day, Donald Trump only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.3%, and tied with John Kasich in the delegate count. Vermont was the only state outside of his native Ohio where Kasich won a county.

## Polling

| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
| Primary results | March 1, 2016 | Donald Trump32.34% | John Kasich30.01% | Marco Rubio19.08% | Ted Cruz 9.61%, Ben Carson 4.13%, Jeb Bush 1.79%, Rand Paul 0.68%, Chris Christie 0.58%, Carly Fiorina 0.34%, Rick Santorum 0.27% |
| Castleton University/Vermont Public Radio Margin of error: ± 9.01% Sample size: 118 | February 3–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 32.4% | Marco Rubio 16.9% | Ted Cruz 10.5% | John Kasich 10.0%, Jeb Bush 7.7%, Ben Carson 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Carly Fiorina 1.0%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Someone else 3.3%, Not sure/Don't know 12.1% |

## Results

2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary :
| Candidate | Vote | Vote | Delegates |
| Candidate | # | % | Delegates |
| Donald Trump | 19,974 | 32.52 | 8 |
| John Kasich | 18,534 | 30.17 | 8 |
| Marco Rubio | 11,781 | 19.18 | 0 |
| Ted Cruz | 5,932 | 9.66 | 0 |
| Ben Carson | 2,551 | 4.15 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 1,106 | 1.80 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 423 | 0.69 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 361 | 0.59 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 212 | 0.35 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 164 | 0.27 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 390 | 0.63 | 0 |
| Total valid votes | 61,428 | 100% | 16 |
Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 20% or more of the vote proportionally.

## Analysis

Vermont's voter base is much more moderate and irreligious than the Southern Super Tuesday contests. Exit polls by Edison Research showed this benefitted Trump and Kasich: Trump carried somewhat conservative voters with 35% of the vote, but John Kasich won moderates with 40% to Trump's 34%. Kasich did particularly well in the populous Burlington metro, holding Trump to a narrow margin statewide.
Turnout dropped in the Vermont Republican primary compared with 2012, as some registered Republicans crossed over to vote for favorite son Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.