# Opinion polling for the 2024 Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the 2024 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2022 Portuguese legislative election, held on 30 January, to the day the next election was held on 10 March.

## Nationwide polling
### Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, parties are shaded with their colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| 2024 legislative election | 10 Mar 2024 | — | 59.9 | 28.0 78 | 28.8 80 | 28.8 80 | 18.1 50 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 3.2 4 | 2.0 1 | 3.2 4 | 7.5 0 | 0.8 |
| CESOP–UCP | 10 Mar 2024 | 36,149 | 62–68 | 25–29 69/77 | 29–33 83/91 | 29–33 83/91 | 14–17 40/46 | 5–7 7/10 | 4–6 5/7 | 2–4 2/3 | 1.5– 2.5 0/2 | 3–5 4/6 | | 4 |
| ICS/ISCTE–GfK/Metris | 10 Mar 2024 | 20,888 | 53.5– 59.5 | 24.2– 28.4 68/80 | 27.6–31.8 77/89 | 27.6–31.8 77/89 | 16.6– 20.8 44/54 | 4.1– 7.3 6/12 | 3.2– 6.4 3/9 | 1.3– 4.5 1/5 | 0.5– 3.1 1/4 | 2.3– 4.9 2/6 | | 3.4 |
| Pitagórica | 10 Mar 2024 | 28,089 | 59.5– 64.5 | 24.5– 29.5 63/75 | 28.0–33.0 79/91 | 28.0–33.0 79/91 | 16.6– 21.6 35/47 | 3.3– 6.3 9/15 | 3.0– 6.0 3/7 | 2.3– 5.3 1/5 | 0.8– 2.8 1/3 | 2.2– 5.2 6/12 | | 3.5 |
| Intercampus | 10 Mar 2024 | 24,328 | 57–61 | 23.8– 29.8 67/79 | 27.2–33.2 77/89 | 27.2–33.2 77/89 | 15.6– 20.6 42/52 | 3.3– 7.3 6/12 | 2.7– 6.7 4/10 | 1.2– 5.2 1/5 | 0.5– 3.5 0/4 | 2.1– 6.1 4/8 | | 3.4 |
| Duplimétrica | 5–7 Mar 2024 | 600 | ? | 29 | 35 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Duplimétrica | 4–6 Mar 2024 | 600 | ? | 29 | 35 | 35 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Consulmark2 | 1–6 Mar 2024 | 801 | ? | 27.0 | 29.8 | 29.8 | 18.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 |
| Duplimétrica | 3–5 Mar 2024 | 600 | ? | 28 | 35 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| CESOP–UCP | 28 Feb–5 Mar 2024 | 2,405 | ? | 28 70/80 | 34 88/98 | 34 88/98 | 16 33/41 | 6 6/10 | 5 4/10 | 5 4/7 | 1 0/1 | 3 2/3 | 2 0 | 6 |
| Duplimétrica | 2–4 Mar 2024 | 600 | ? | 27 | 36 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Intercampus | 28 Feb–4 Mar 2024 | 802 | ? | 25.0 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 16.8 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 6.5 |
| Duplimétrica | 1–3 Mar 2024 | 600 | ? | 26 | 35 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| Duplimétrica | 29 Feb–2 Mar 2024 | 600 | ? | 26 | 35 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| Duplimétrica | 28 Feb–1 Mar 2024 | 600 | ? | 27 | 34 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Duplimétrica | 27–29 Feb 2024 | 600 | ? | 27 | 34 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Duplimétrica | 26–28 Feb 2024 | 600 | ? | 26 | 32 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Duplimétrica | 25–27 Feb 2024 | 600 | ? | 27 | 33 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Aximage | 23–27 Feb 2024 | 809 | ? | 33.1 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 16.7 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.5 |
| Duplimétrica | 24–26 Feb 2024 | 600 | ? | 26 | 33 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| CESOP–UCP | 22–26 Feb 2024 | 1,207 | ? | 27 69/79 | 33 86/96 | 33 86/96 | 17 33/41 | 6 6/10 | 5 5/7 | 3 3/5 | 2 2 | 4 3/4 | 3 0 | 6 |
| Duplimétrica | 23–25 Feb 2024 | 600 | ? | 26 | 33 | 33 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 17–25 Feb 2024 | 907 | ? | 30 | 31 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Duplimétrica | 22–24 Feb 2024 | 600 | ? | 26 | 31 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Duplimétrica | 21–23 Feb 2024 | 600 | ? | 28 | 28 | 28 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | Tie |
| CESOP–UCP | 19–21 Feb 2024 | 1,284 | ? | 29 | 35 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Duplimétrica | 10–20 Feb 2024 | 800 | ? | 26 | 29 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| Intercampus | 8–17 Feb 2024 | 1,203 | ? | 26.0 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 20.8 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Aximage | 8–13 Feb 2024 | 805 | ? | 33.1 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 16.4 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 5.4 |
| Consulmark2 | 6–12 Feb 2024 | 804 | ? | 27.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 18.1 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 8.1 | 2.6 |
| Intercampus | 6–10 Feb 2024 | 608 | ? | 25.6 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 18.8 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 |
| CESOP–UCP | 24 Jan–1 Feb 2024 | 1,192 | ? | 28 | 32 | 32 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 16–25 Jan 2024 | 804 | ? | 29 | 27 | 27 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| Aximage | 16–20 Jan 2024 | 801 | ? | 32.7 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 16.2 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| Intercampus | 16–20 Jan 2024 | 637 | ? | 30.9 | 24.3 | 24.3 | 19.4 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 6.6 |
| Consulmark2 | 11–17 Jan 2024 | 801 | ? | 26.7 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 17.5 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 7.5 | 1.4 |
| Aximage | 18–23 Dec 2023 | 805 | ? | 34.1 | 24.8 | 1.2 | 16.3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 9.3 |
| Intercampus | 18–21 Dec 2023 | 611 | ? | 29.3 | 26.0 | 1.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| Consulmark2 | 17–20 Dec 2023 | 803 | ? | 24.1 | 37.6 | 37.6 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 13.5 |
| Consulmark2 | 17–20 Dec 2023 | 803 | ? | 26.5 | 27.5 | 1.7 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 9.7 | 1.0 |
| Consulmark2 | 30 Nov–6 Dec 2023 | 575 | ? | 26.0 | 30.0 | 2.3 | 17.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 |
| CESOP–UCP | 15–24 Nov 2023 | 1,102 | ? | 28 | 29 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Aximage | 18–23 Nov 2023 | 802 | ? | 32.9 | 26.7 | 1.5 | 16.2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 6.2 |
| Intercampus | 14–17 Nov 2023 | 604 | ? | 25.5 | 23.6 | 2.0 | 14.6 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| Aximage | 10–13 Nov 2023 | 504 | ? | 28 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Intercampus | 7–8 Nov 2023 | 602 | ? | 22.2 | 27.0 | 2.5 | 16.1 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.8 |
| Aximage | 18–24 Oct 2023 | 805 | ? | 28.6 | 24.9 | 1.6 | 14.6 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| Intercampus | 18–23 Oct 2023 | 604 | ? | 27.3 | 27.9 | 1.7 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 0.6 |
| Aximage | 2–5 Oct 2023 | 601 | ? | 29.3 | 25.6 | 2.6 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 3.7 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 16–25 Sep 2023 | 804 | ? | 31 | 25 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 |
| Intercampus | 9–14 Sep 2023 | 614 | ? | 30.0 | 28.6 | 0.8 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| Intercampus | 7–11 Aug 2023 | 607 | ? | 27.9 | 26.6 | 1.1 | 13.4 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 |
| CESOP–UCP | 6–15 Jul 2023 | 1,006 | ? | 32 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Aximage | 6–11 Jul 2023 | 800 | 67.9 | 28.8 | 27.7 | 1.1 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 1.1 |
| Intercampus | 3–6 Jul 2023 | 623 | ? | 25.2 | 24.5 | 1.2 | 13.6 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| CESOP–UCP | 1–21 Jun 2023 | 2,042 | ? | 32 | 35 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| Intercampus | 25–31 May 2023 | 611 | ? | 24.5 | 26.3 | 2.4 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 13–28 May 2023 | 1,204 | ? | 31 | 30 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Intercampus | 4–5 May 2023 | 606 | ? | 25.7 | 25.5 | 1.8 | 14.7 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Apr 2023 | 805 | 70.2 | 28.3 | 28.6 | 1.3 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 0.3 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | 610 | ? | 28.1 | 26.9 | 1.6 | 14.7 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 11–20 Mar 2023 | 807 | ? | 30 | 30 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | Tie |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Mar 2023 | 613 | ? | 28.4 | 27.3 | 1.5 | 15.2 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 |
| CESOP–UCP | 9–17 Feb 2023 | 1,002 | ? | 32 | 31 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Feb 2023 | 602 | ? | 28.4 | 27.6 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 0.8 |
| Pitagórica | 11–17 Jan 2023 | 828 | ? | 26.9 | 30.6 | 0.0 | 14.2 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 9.7 | 3.7 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Jan 2023 | 805 | 65.1 | 27.1 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jan 2023 | 605 | ? | 31.1 | 29.5 | 0.7 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Pitagórica | 9–15 Dec 2022 | 828 | ? | 35.9 | 30.4 | 0.7 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 3–15 Dec 2022 | 809 | ? | 37 | 29 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| Intercampus | 12–14 Dec 2022 | 663 | ? | 30.9 | 25.3 | 2.2 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| Intercampus | 15–20 Nov 2022 | 605 | ? | 28.8 | 26.2 | 1.6 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Pitagórica | 11–17 Nov 2022 | 828 | ? | 35.1 | 30.4 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 |
| Intercampus | 17–22 Oct 2022 | 607 | ? | 33.2 | 29.1 | 0.7 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| Pitagórica | 11–17 Oct 2022 | 828 | ? | 36.2 | 30.0 | 1.6 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| Aximage | 21–24 Sep 2022 | 810 | 59.2 | 34.5 | 30.9 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 10–18 Sep 2022 | 807 | ? | 37 | 28 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Sep 2022 | 606 | ? | 35.5 | 28.7 | 1.3 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 6.8 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Aug 2022 | 605 | ? | 38.5 | 26.5 | 0.8 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 12.0 |
| Pitagórica | 28 Jul–10 Aug 2022 | 828 | ? | 36.7 | 27.6 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 9.1 |
| CESOP–UCP | 11–15 Jul 2022 | 885 | ? | 38 | 30 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jul 2022 | 605 | ? | 39.8 | 22.5 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 17.3 |
| Aximage | 5–10 Jul 2022 | 810 | 57.2 | 35.8 | 30.1 | 1.4 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 5.7 |
| Pitagórica | 21 Jun–4 Jul 2022 | 828 | ? | 38.9 | 24.9 | 1.8 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 14.0 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 Jun 2022 | 611 | ? | 38.8 | 24.6 | 3.0 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 14.2 |
| Intercampus | 7–15 May 2022 | 611 | ? | 39.5 | 21.2 | 3.3 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 18.3 |
| Aximage | 12–18 Apr 2022 | 807 | ? | 40.7 | 25.2 | 2.2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5.1 | 15.5 |
| Pitagórica | 15–20 Feb 2022 | 600 | ? | 37.1 | 31.7 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 5.4 |
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 51.5 | 41.4 120 | 29.1 77 | 1.6 0 | 7.2 12 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 4.3 6 | 1.6 1 | 1.3 1 | 4.3 0 | 12.3 |

#### Other scenarios

Jorge Moreira da Silva as PSD leader
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| Pitagórica | 7–24 Apr 2022 | 625 | ? | 42.3 | 19.9 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 6.3 | 22.4 |
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 51.5 | 41.4 120 | 29.1 77 | 7.2 12 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 4.3 6 | 1.6 0 | 1.6 1 | 1.3 1 | 4.3 0 | 12.3 |
Luís Montenegro as PSD leader
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| Pitagórica | 7–24 Apr 2022 | 625 | ? | 41.5 | 21.6 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 19.9 |
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 51.5 | 41.4 120 | 29.1 77 | 7.2 12 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 4.3 6 | 1.6 0 | 1.6 1 | 1.3 1 | 4.3 0 | 12.3 |
Luís Montenegro as PSD leader and Nuno Melo as CDS-PP leader
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| Pitagórica | 15–20 Feb 2022 | 600 | ? | 36.5 | 30.6 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 5.9 |
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 51.5 | 41.4 120 | 29.1 77 | 7.2 12 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 4.3 6 | 1.6 0 | 1.6 1 | 1.3 1 | 4.3 0 | 12.3 |
Pedro Nuno Santos as PS leader
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| ICS/ISCTE | 18–27 Nov 2023 | 803 | ? | 29 | 26 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5.9 |
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 51.5 | 41.4 120 | 29.1 77 | 7.2 12 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 4.3 6 | 1.6 0 | 1.6 1 | 1.3 1 | 4.3 0 | 12.3 |
José Luís Carneiro as PS leader
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| ICS/ISCTE | 18–27 Nov 2023 | 803 | ? | 30 | 25 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5.9 |
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 51.5 | 41.4 120 | 29.1 77 | 7.2 12 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 4.3 6 | 1.6 0 | 1.6 1 | 1.3 1 | 4.3 0 | 12.3 |
PSD/CDS–PP/IL coalition
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | O | Lead |
| Consulmark2 | 17–20 Dec 2023 | 803 | ? | 24.3 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 17.7 |
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 51.5 | 41.4 120 | 29.1 77 | 1.6 0 | 4.9 8 | 7.2 12 | 4.4 5 | 4.3 6 | 1.6 1 | 1.3 1 | 4.3 0 | 12.3 |

## Constituency polling
### Madeira

Unlike the rest of the country, in Madeira, the PSD and CDS–PP contested the election under a coalition called Madeira First, while PPM presented a list of its own.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| 2024 legislative election | 10 Mar 2024 | — | 58.9 | 35.4 3 | 19.8 2 | 9.6 0 | 17.6 1 | 3.9 0 | 2.9 0 | 1.6 0 | 2.1 0 | 1.2 0 | 1.6 0 | 2.0 0 | 15.6 |
| Intercampus | 26 Feb–3 Mar 2024 | 401 | ? | 34.6 3 | 22.3 2 | 6.4 0 | 9.9 1 | 9.1 0 | 3.3 0 | 3.7 0 | 1.8 0 | 1.8 0 | 2.7 0 | 4.4 0 | 12.3 |
| Aximage | 21–29 Feb 2024 | 512 | ? | 46.5 3 | 24.9 2 | 5.1 0 | 12.4 1 | 4.0 0 | 2.7 0 | 0.7 0 | 1.6 0 | 0.9 0 | — | 1.2 0 | 21.6 |
| 2023 regional election | 24 Sep 2023 | — | 53.3 | 43.1 (4) | 21.3 (2) | 11.0 (0) | 8.9 (0) | 2.6 (0) | 2.2 (0) | 2.7 (0) | 2.2 (0) | 0.6 (0) | 0.5 (0) | 2.2 (0) | 21.8 |
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 50.3 | 39.8 3 | 31.5 3 | 6.9 0 | 6.1 0 | 5.6 0 | 3.2 0 | 2.0 0 | 1.6 0 | 0.7 0 | 0.4 0 | 2.2 0 | 8.3 |

## Leadership polls
### Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister or who is better positioned to win are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

#### Pedro Nuno Santos vs Luís Montenegro

| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | | | N | Both/ O | NO | Lead |
| Intercampus | 28 Feb–4 Mar 2024 | 30.8 | 44.1 | — | — | 25.1 | 13.3 |
| CESOP–UCP | 19–21 Feb 2024 | 34 | 46 | — | — | 20 | 12 |
| Intercampus | 6–10 Feb 2024 | 30.0 | 40.6 | — | — | 29.4 | 10.6 |
| Intercampus | 16–20 Jan 2024 | 36.3 | 31.2 | — | — | 32.5 | 5.1 |
| Consulmark2 | 11–17 Jan 2024 | 31.1 | 34.8 | — | 22.3 | 11.7 | 3.7 |
| Aximage | 18–23 Dec 2023 | 37 | 34 | — | — | 29 | 3 |
| Intercampus | 18–21 Dec 2023 | 28.2 | 24.1 | 31.4 | 4.1 | 12.2 | 4.1 |
| CESOP–UCP | 15–24 Nov 2023 | 39 | 40 | — | — | 21 | 1 |
| Aximage | 18–23 Nov 2023 | 47 | 31 | — | — | 22 | 16 |
| Intercampus | 14–17 Nov 2023 | 35.9 | 30.7 | — | — | 33.4 | 5.2 |
| Aximage | 10–13 Nov 2023 | 33 | 40 | — | — | 27 | 7 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | 27.0 | 44.9 | — | — | 28.1 | 17.9 |

#### António Costa vs Luís Montenegro

| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | | | N | Both/ O | NO | Lead |
| Aximage | 18–24 Oct 2023 | 34 | 20 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| Aximage | 2–5 Oct 2023 | 26 | 22 | 39 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| Aximage | 6–11 Jul 2023 | 37 | 20 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Apr 2023 | 38 | 21 | 34 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Mar 2023 | 40.6 | 26.8 | 5.2 | — | 27.4 | 13.8 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Jan 2023 | 38 | 19 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| Aximage | 21–24 Sep 2022 | 38 | 20 | 30 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Sep 2022 | 43.6 | 30.0 | 3.6 | — | 22.8 | 13.6 |
| Aximage | 5–10 Jul 2022 | 45 | 17 | 28 | 2 | 8 | 28 |

#### Other scenarios

José Luís Carneiro vs Luís Montenegro
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | | | N | Both/ O | NO | Lead |
| CESOP–UCP | 15–24 Nov 2023 | 42 | 37 | — | — | 21 | 5 |
| Aximage | 18–23 Nov 2023 | 38 | 37 | — | — | 25 | 1 |
| Intercampus | 14–17 Nov 2023 | 34.2 | 30.4 | — | — | 35.4 | 3.8 |
| Aximage | 10–13 Nov 2023 | 28 | 43 | — | — | 29 | 15 |
Possible PS candidates vs Luís Montenegro
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | | | | | | N | Both/ O | NO | Lead |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | 36.9 | — | — | — | 42.0 | — | — | 21.1 | 5.1 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | — | 30.7 | — | — | 43.4 | — | — | 25.9 | 12.7 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | — | — | 22.1 | — | 49.8 | — | — | 28.1 | 27.7 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | — | — | — | 20.8 | 46.1 | — | — | 33.1 | 25.3 |

### Leaders' ratings

Poll results showing the public opinion on all political party leaders rated from 0 to 10 (with the former being strong disapproval and the latter strong approval) are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order (showing the most recent first).
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Lead |
| Intercampus | 29 Feb–4 Mar 2024 | — | 5.2 | — | 6.0 | 4.6 | — | 5.8 | — | 5.2 | — | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 6–10 Feb 2024 | — | 5.0 | — | 5.4 | 4.6 | — | 5.4 | — | 5.4 | — | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | Tie |
| ICS/ISCTE | 16–25 Jan 2024 | — | 4.3 | — | 4.0 | 3.4 | — | 2.9 | — | 3.8 | — | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| Intercampus | 16–20 Jan 2024 | — | 5.0 | — | 5.0 | 4.6 | — | 5.2 | — | 5.4 | — | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | Tie |
| Intercampus | 18–21 Dec 2023 | — | 5.4 | — | 5.6 | 4.6 | — | 5.8 | — | 5.8 | — | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 14–17 Nov 2023 | 4.8 | — | — | 5.2 | 4.6 | — | 5.6 | — | 5.6 | — | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | Tie |
| Intercampus | 18–23 Oct 2023 | 4.8 | — | — | 5.2 | 4.4 | — | 5.6 | — | 5.6 | — | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | Tie |
| ICS/ISCTE | 16–25 Sep 2023 | 4.6 | — | — | 3.6 | 2.9 | — | 3.2 | — | 3.8 | — | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| Intercampus | 9–14 Sep 2023 | 5.2 | — | — | 5.4 | 4.4 | — | 5.4 | — | 5.4 | — | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.4 | Tie |
| Intercampus | 7–11 Aug 2023 | 5.4 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.4 | — | 5.4 | — | 5.4 | — | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| CESOP–UCP | 6–15 Jul 2023 | 5.1 | — | — | 5.2 | 3.5 | — | 4.7 | — | 5.4 | — | 4.4 | — | 4.5 | 5.1 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 3–6 Jul 2023 | 5.2 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.6 | — | 5.6 | — | 5.8 | — | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 25–31 May 2023 | 5.0 | — | — | 5.8 | 4.6 | — | 6.0 | 5.8 | — | — | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 0.2 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 13–28 May 2023 | 4.8 | — | — | 3.9 | 3.0 | — | 3.2 | 4.1 | — | — | 3.2 | — | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Apr 2023 | 4.8 | — | — | 5.2 | 5.0 | — | 5.8 | 5.4 | — | — | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | 5.2 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.4 | — | 5.6 | 5.2 | — | — | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | Tie |
| ICS/ISCTE | 11–20 Mar 2023 | 4.6 | — | — | 4.2 | 3.4 | — | 3.1 | 4.1 | — | — | 3.2 | — | 3.3 | 3.5 | 0.4 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Mar 2023 | 5.2 | — | — | 5.4 | 4.6 | — | 5.2 | 5.2 | — | — | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Feb 2023 | 5.2 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.8 | 5.6 | — | 5.0 | — | — | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.4 | Tie |
| Aximage | 10–14 Jan 2023 | 4.8 | — | — | 5.2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | — | 5.6 | — | — | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jan 2023 | 5.2 | — | — | 5.8 | 4.6 | 5.6 | — | 5.2 | — | — | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 3–15 Dec 2022 | 5.4 | — | — | 4.5 | 3.0 | 3.9 | — | 4.5 | — | — | 3.6 | — | 3.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 |
| Intercampus | 12–14 Dec 2022 | 5.8 | — | — | 5.8 | 4.4 | 5.8 | — | 5.4 | — | — | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | Tie |
| Intercampus | 15–20 Nov 2022 | 5.6 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | — | 5.0 | — | 4.4 | — | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | Tie |
| Intercampus | 17–22 Oct 2022 | 5.6 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.4 | 5.6 | — | 5.0 | — | 4.0 | — | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | Tie |
| ICS/ISCTE | 10–18 Sep 2022 | 5.3 | — | — | 4.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | — | 3.9 | — | 2.9 | — | — | 3.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Sep 2022 | 6.0 | — | — | 5.8 | 4.4 | 5.6 | — | 5.0 | — | 4.0 | — | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Aug 2022 | 5.8 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | — | 5.0 | — | 3.8 | — | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jul 2022 | 6.0 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.2 | 5.8 | — | 5.2 | — | 3.8 | — | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 Jun 2022 | 6.4 | — | — | 5.6 | 4.2 | 5.8 | — | 5.2 | — | 4.0 | — | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 0.6 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 11 Feb–7 Mar 2022 | 6.0 | — | 4.0 | — | 2.3 | 3.6 | — | 4.0 | — | 3.7 | — | — | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 |

### Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings
#### Polling

Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | António Costa's cabinet | António Costa's cabinet | António Costa's cabinet | António Costa's cabinet | António Costa's cabinet |
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Approve | Disapprove | Neither | No opinion | Net |
| Intercampus | 6–10 Feb 2024 | 608 | 16.5 | 60.3 | 22.0 | 1.2 | 38.3 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 16–25 Jan 2024 | 804 | 26 | 69 | — | 5 | 43 |
| Intercampus | 16–20 Jan 2024 | 637 | 19.0 | 57.3 | 21.8 | 1.9 | 35.5 |
| Intercampus | 18–21 Dec 2023 | 611 | 21.3 | 49.6 | 25.2 | 3.9 | 24.4 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 18–27 Nov 2023 | 803 | 27 | 69 | — | 4 | 42 |
| Intercampus | 14–17 Nov 2023 | 602 | 16.9 | 61.3 | 21.4 | 0.3 | 39.9 |
| Aximage | 18–24 Oct 2023 | 805 | 25 | 56 | 17 | 2 | 31 |
| Intercampus | 18–23 Oct 2023 | 604 | 17.4 | 60.0 | 21.7 | 0.9 | 38.3 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 16–25 Sep 2023 | 804 | 28 | 66 | — | 6 | 38 |
| Intercampus | 9–14 Sep 2023 | 614 | 21.2 | 52.4 | 24.6 | 1.8 | 27.8 |
| Intercampus | 7–11 Aug 2023 | 607 | 20.5 | 50.8 | 27.8 | 0.9 | 23.0 |
| CESOP–UCP | 6–15 Jul 2023 | 1,006 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 1 | 14 |
| Aximage | 6–11 Jul 2023 | 800 | 26 | 54 | 16 | 4 | 28 |
| Intercampus | 3–6 Jul 2023 | 623 | 21.8 | 54.1 | 23.0 | 1.1 | 31.1 |
| Intercampus | 25–31 May 2023 | 611 | 14.7 | 60.1 | 24.1 | 1.1 | 36.0 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 13–28 May 2023 | 1,204 | 25 | 71 | — | 4 | 46 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Apr 2023 | 805 | 23 | 60 | 15 | 2 | 37 |
| Intercampus | 6–12 Apr 2023 | 610 | 20.4 | 56.6 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 34.6 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 11–20 Mar 2023 | 807 | 29 | 64 | — | 7 | 35 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Mar 2023 | 613 | 21.6 | 55.3 | 20.9 | 2.2 | 33.7 |
| CESOP–UCP | 9–17 Feb 2023 | 1,002 | 7.0 | 52.2 | 38.9 | 1.9 | 13.3 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Feb 2023 | 602 | 17.8 | 54.6 | 25.7 | 1.8 | 28.9 |
| Pitagórica | 11–17 Jan 2023 | 828 | 12 | 53 | 34 | 1 | 19 |
| Aximage | 10–14 Jan 2023 | 805 | 20 | 59 | 18 | 3 | 39 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jan 2023 | 605 | 19.1 | 54.4 | 24.6 | 1.8 | 29.8 |
| Pitagórica | 9–15 Dec 2022 | 828 | 17 | 41 | 40 | 2 | 1 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 3–15 Dec 2022 | 809 | 41 | 52 | — | 6 | 11 |
| Pitagórica | 11–17 Nov 2022 | 828 | 19 | 32 | 47 | 2 | 15 |
| Intercampus | 17–22 Oct 2022 | 607 | 29.4 | 42.7 | 26.5 | 1.4 | 13.3 |
| Pitagórica | 11–17 Oct 2022 | 828 | 15 | 42 | 41 | 2 | 1 |
| Aximage | 21–24 Sep 2022 | 810 | 30 | 48 | 17 | 5 | 18 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 10–18 Sep 2022 | 807 | 42 | 49 | — | 9 | 7 |
| Intercampus | 9–15 Sep 2022 | 606 | 29.5 | 40.8 | 27.2 | 2.5 | 11.3 |
| Intercampus | 3–10 Aug 2022 | 605 | 29.9 | 36.0 | 31.7 | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| Pitagórica | 28 Jul–10 Aug 2022 | 828 | 19 | 42 | 37 | 2 | 5 |
| CESOP–UCP | 11–15 Jul 2022 | 885 | 10 | 37 | 50 | 3 | 13 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jul 2022 | 605 | 32.0 | 40.0 | 25.6 | 2.4 | 8.0 |
| Aximage | 5–10 Jul 2022 | 810 | 35 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 8 |
| Pitagórica | 21 Jun–4 Jul 2022 | 828 | 18 | 34 | 47 | 1 | 13 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 Jun 2022 | 611 | 36.4 | 33.2 | 29.3 | 1.1 | 3.2 |
| Intercampus | 7–15 May 2022 | 611 | 40.1 | 27.2 | 31.1 | 1.6 | 9.0 |
| Pitagórica | 7–24 Apr 2022 | 625 | 28 | 27 | 41 | 4 | 13 |
| Aximage | 12–18 Apr 2022 | 807 | 45 | 27 | 21 | 7 | 18 |