# 2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election

The 2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 84 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The ruling People's Party (PP) sustained a sharp decline in its support, with a decrease of almost fourteen percentage points in the vote share and falling short of an overall majority for the first time since 1987. Concurrently, the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) secured its worst historical result with only 25.9% and 25 seats, whereas the Leonese People's Union (UPL) had its worst showing since 1991. Newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We Can") and Citizens (C's) made substantial inroads, both securing over 10% of the share.
The election result forced the PP candidate and incumbent regional president Juan Vicente Herrera to secure the support of C's in order to be re-elected for a fifth term in office, which would also end up being his last.

## Overview
### Electoral system

The Cortes of Castile and León were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).
All members of the Cortes of Castile and León were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
| 15 | Valladolid |
| 14 | León |
| 11 | Burgos, Salamanca |
| 7 | Ávila, Palencia, Segovia, Zamora |
| 5 | Soria |
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

### Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 27 June 2015.
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

## Parliamentary composition

The Cortes of Castile and León were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Castile and León. The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.
Parliamentary composition in March 2015 :
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Legislators | Legislators |
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Seats | Total |
| | People's Parliamentary Group | | PP | 53 | 53 |
| | Socialist Parliamentary Group | | PSOE | 29 | 29 |
| | Mixed Parliamentary Group | | IUCyL | 1 | 2 |
| | Mixed Parliamentary Group | | UPL | 1 | 2 |

## Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. |
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Votes (%) | Seats | Gov. | Ref. |
| | PP | List People's Party (PP) | | Juan Vicente Herrera | Conservatism Christian democracy | 51.55% | 53 | Y | [8] [9] |
| | PSOE | List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | | Luis Tudanca | Social democracy | 29.68% | 29 | N | [10] [11] |
| | IU–Equo | List United Left of Castile and León (IUCyL) Equo (Equo) | | José Sarrión | Socialism Communism | 4.87% | 1 | N | |
| | UPL | List Leonese People's Union (UPL) | | Luis Mariano Santos | Regionalism Autonomism | 1.86% | 1 | N | |
| | C's | List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | | Luis Fuentes | Liberalism | 0.26% | 0 | N | |
| | Podemos | List We Can (Podemos) | | Pablo Fernández | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | New party | New party | N | [15] [16] |

## Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

### Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 43 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.

#### Color key

Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | UPL | | | | Lead |
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | — | 64.9 | 37.7 42 | 25.9 25 | 4.1 1 | 1.4 0 | 1.4 1 | 10.3 5 | 12.1 10 | 0.7 0 | 11.8 |
| GAD3/Antena 3 | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? 39/42 | ? 23/25 | ? 1 | – | ? 0/1 | ? 8/10 | ? 8/10 | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón | 17 May 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 42.2 43/44 | 24.7 22/24 | 4.8 0/1 | 1.1 0 | 2.0 0/1 | 12.6 10/11 | 10.5 7/8 | – | 17.5 |
| GAD3/ABC | 6–11 May 2015 | 550 | ? | 39.2 39/41 | 24.5 22/24 | 4.2 1 | 0.9 0 | 0.6 0/1 | 13.5 11/12 | 11.8 10/11 | – | 14.7 |
| Madison MK/El Norte de Castilla | 29 Apr–6 May 2015 | 1,906 | ? | 38.9 40/43 | 22.5 22/23 | 5.7 1 | – | 1.7 1 | 13.2 10/12 | 10.4 6/8 | – | 16.4 |
| Celeste-Tel/Edigrup | 22–30 Apr 2015 | 2,700 | 64.7 | 44.3 44 | 25.0 24 | 4.6 1 | 2.2 0 | 2.2 1 | 12.8 10 | 7.3 4 | 1.3 0 | 19.3 |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | ? | 40.9 43/44 | 22.9 20/21 | 3.8 1 | 2.0 0 | 1.8 1 | 11.1 9 | 10.3 8/10 | – | 18.0 |
| Sigma Dos/Ical | 12–24 Mar 2015 | 2,200 | ? | 39.6 39/43 | 22.2 21/23 | 5.6 1 | – | 1.3 1 | 13.3 9/10 | 13.8 9/11 | – | 17.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 4–20 Mar 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 39.3 38/43 | 23.8 22/24 | 4.3 0/1 | 1.4 0 | 1.7 0/1 | 14.1 10/11 | 12.7 8/10 | – | 15.5 |
| Pnyx/RTVCyL | 29 Dec–3 Jan 2015 | 2,000 | 71 | 37.6 40/43 | 24.1 24 | 3.9 1 | 6.1 2/3 | 1.5 1 | 5.6 2/3 | 11.7 10/12 | 2.3 0 | 13.5 |
| Llorente & Cuenca | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? 38/40 | ? 23/25 | ? 2/3 | ? 4 | ? 2 | – | ? 10/16 | – | ? |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | — | 45.9 | 37.5 (43) | 23.4 (24) | 8.3 (6) | 8.3 (6) | – | 2.7 (0) | 8.1 (5) | 2.5 (0) | 14.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? 43/44 | ? 25/26 | ? 6/7 | ? 5/6 | ? 2/3 | – | – | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 400 | ? | 44.9 43/44 | 28.1 26/27 | ? 5/6 | ? 5/6 | ? 2/3 | – | – | – | 16.8 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | — | 71.3 | 55.4 (56) | 29.2 (25) | 5.6 (1) | 6.1 (2) | – | – | – | – | 26.2 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | — | 67.5 | 51.6 53 | 29.7 29 | 4.9 1 | 3.3 0 | 1.9 1 | 0.3 0 | – | – | 21.9 |

### Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | UPL | | | ? | N | Lead |
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | — | 25.5 | 17.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | — | 31.0 | 8.0 |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | 20.3 | 12.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 34.6 | 10.2 | 7.8 |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | — | 17.8 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | – | 1.3 | 3.9 | — | 51.3 | 6.7 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | — | 41.0 | 21.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | – | – | – | — | 24.9 | 19.4 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | — | 36.0 | 20.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | – | – | — | 28.9 | 15.4 |

### Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | UPL | | | Other/ None | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | 24.5 | 17.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 27.9 | 7.2 |

### Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | Other/ None | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | 68.8 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 22.3 | 62.5 |

### Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Castile and León.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Herrera PP | Tudanca PSOE | Sarrión IUCyL | Fuentes C's | Fernández Podemos | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | 25.7 | 9.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 56.3 | 16.0 |

## Results
### Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Castile and León election results → :
| Parties and alliances | Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Popular vote | Popular vote | Seats | Seats |
| Parties and alliances | Parties and alliances | Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− |
| | People's Party (PP) | 514,301 | 37.73 | –13.82 | 42 | –11 |
| | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 353,575 | 25.94 | –3.74 | 25 | –4 |
| | We Can (Podemos) | 165,475 | 12.14 | New | 10 | +10 |
| | Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)$^1$ | 139,954 | 10.27 | +10.01 | 5 | +5 |
| | United Left–Equo: Convergence for Castile and León (IU–Equo) | 56,516 | 4.15 | –0.72 | 1 | ±0 |
| | Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 19,597 | 1.44 | –1.84 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Leonese People's Union (UPL) | 19,176 | 1.41 | –0.45 | 1 | ±0 |
| | Independent Candidacy–Citizens of Democratic Centre (CI–CCD)$^2$ | 12,748 | 0.94 | +0.19 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Vox (Vox) | 9,333 | 0.68 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 7,263 | 0.53 | +0.16 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Coalition for El Bierzo (CB)$^3$ | 5,032 | 0.37 | +0.20 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Castilian Party–Commoners' Land: Pact (PCAS–TC–Pacto) | 4,504 | 0.33 | –0.61 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Let's Win the Fracking Castile and León (Ganemos al Fracking) | 2,445 | 0.18 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Zamoran Independent Electors (ADEIZA) | 2,380 | 0.17 | –0.06 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Decide Now–Socialist Alternative (Ahora Decide–AS) | 2,285 | 0.17 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Leonese Autonomist Party–Leonesist Unity (PAL–UL) | 1,963 | 0.14 | –0.13 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) | 1,779 | 0.13 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Grouped Rural Citizens (CRA) | 1,698 | 0.12 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 1,408 | 0.10 | +0.07 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL) | 1,374 | 0.10 | –0.04 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 973 | 0.07 | –0.02 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Party for Freedom–With Clean Hands (PxL) | 934 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | National Democracy (DN) | 896 | 0.07 | –0.08 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Spanish Democratic Segovian Party (PSeDE) | 874 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Regionalist Democracy of Castile and León (DRCyL)$^4$ | 848 | 0.06 | –0.04 | 0 | ±0 |
| | United Free Citizens (CILUS) | 742 | 0.05 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Regionalist Party of El Bierzo (PRB) | 732 | 0.05 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Cives (Cives) | 628 | 0.05 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Blank Seats (EB) | 348 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| Blank ballots | Blank ballots | 33,274 | 2.44 | –0.84 | | |
| Total | Total | 1,363,055 | | | 84 | ±0 |
| Valid votes | Valid votes | 1,363,055 | 97.93 | –0.16 | | |
| Invalid votes | Invalid votes | 28,742 | 2.07 | +0.16 | | |
| Votes cast / turnout | Votes cast / turnout | 1,391,797 | 64.67 | –2.83 | | |
| Abstentions | Abstentions | 760,196 | 35.33 | +2.83 | | |
| Registered voters | Registered voters | 2,151,993 | | | | |
| Sources |||||||
| Footnotes: $^1$ Citizens–Party of the Citizenry results are compared to Yes for Salamanca totals in the 2011 election.$^2$ Independent Candidacy–Citizens of Democratic Centre results are compared to The Party of Castile and León–Independent Candidacy totals in the 2011 election.$^3$ Coalition for El Bierzo results are compared to Party of El Bierzo totals in the 2011 election.$^4$ Regionalist Democracy of Castile and León results are compared to Regionalist Unity of Castile and León totals in the 2011 election. |||||||
Popular vote
PP
37.73%
PSOE
25.94%
Podemos
12.14%
C's
10.27%
IU–Equo
4.15%
UPyD
1.44%
UPL
1.41%
Others
4.49%
Blank ballots
2.44% :
Seats
PP
50.00%
PSOE
29.76%
Podemos
11.90%
C's
5.95%
IU–Equo
1.19%
UPL
1.19% :

### Distribution by constituency

| Constituency | PP | PP | PSOE | PSOE | Podemos | Podemos | C's | C's | IU–Equo | IU–Equo | UPL | UPL |
| Constituency | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S |
| Ávila | 45.3 | 4 | 22.1 | 2 | 10.1 | − | 11.9 | 1 | 4.0 | − | | |
| Burgos | 36.5 | 5 | 24.7 | 3 | 14.2 | 2 | 12.1 | 1 | 3.9 | − | | |
| León | 32.1 | 5 | 27.3 | 5 | 12.6 | 2 | 8.9 | 1 | 3.4 | − | 7.0 | 1 |
| Palencia | 41.0 | 4 | 29.0 | 2 | 10.8 | 1 | 9.9 | − | 3.9 | − | | |
| Salamanca | 41.5 | 6 | 25.3 | 3 | 10.8 | 1 | 13.3 | 1 | 3.0 | − | | |
| Segovia | 40.0 | 4 | 27.5 | 2 | 11.3 | 1 | 9.1 | − | 3.6 | − | | |
| Soria | 36.9 | 3 | 31.2 | 2 | 12.0 | − | 12.1 | − | 2.8 | − | | |
| Valladolid | 35.7 | 7 | 25.0 | 4 | 13.1 | 2 | 8.9 | 1 | 6.2 | 1 | | |
| Zamora | 41.3 | 4 | 25.5 | 2 | 11.0 | 1 | 7.8 | − | 4.3 | − | 0.7 | − |
| Total | 37.7 | 42 | 25.9 | 25 | 12.1 | 10 | 10.3 | 5 | 4.1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Sources |||||||||||||

## Aftermath

Investiture Juan Vicente Herrera (PP) :
| Ballot → | Ballot → | 3 July 2015 | 3 July 2015 |
| Required majority → | Required majority → | 43 out of 84 N | Simple Y |
| | Yes • PP (42) | 42 / 84 | 42 / 84 |
| | No • PSOE (25) • Podemos (10) • IU (1) • UPL (1) | 37 / 84 | 37 / 84 |
| | Abstentions • C's (5) | 5 / 84 | 5 / 84 |
| | Absentees | 0 / 84 | 0 / 84 |
| Sources ||||