# Division of Robertson

The Division of Robertson is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.

## Geography

Federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined since 1984, at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.

## History

The division was proclaimed at Federation in 1900, and was one of the original 65 divisions to be contested at the first federal election in 1901. The division was named for the fifth Premier of New South Wales, Sir John Robertson.
The Division of Robertson was originally anchored in rural central NSW, encompassing the area around Dubbo, Mudgee and Wellington.
It moved eastward to take in Gosford in 1913, and since then it has been moved further eastward in successive redistributions. By 1969, it had moved to approximately its current position on the Central Coast, immediately north of the Hawkesbury River, and now includes none of its original territory. Nonetheless, it has retained the name of Robertson, in part because the Australian Electoral Commission is required to preserve the names of original electorates where possible.
Robertson encompasses the towns of Woy Woy, Gosford and Terrigal.
Two of its members have served as Senators prior or subsequent to their tenures on Robertson. Former Senator Belinda Neal was elected in Robertson in 2007 and Deborah O'Neill became a Senator shortly after losing Robertson in 2013.
In recent years, Robertson has been a bellwether electorate in federal elections, taking on a character similar to mortgage belt seats on Sydney's outer fringe. It has been held by a member of the party of government since the 1983 federal election. In addition, after Mike Kelly became the first opposition MP elected to represent Eden-Monaro (in 2016) since 1975, Robertson currently holds the record for the longest-running bellwether seat in Australia.
The current Member for Robertson, since the 2022 federal election, is Gordon Reid, a member of the Australian Labor Party.

### The new bellwether

Ahead of the 2016 election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed Robertson in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as bellwether electorates. Prior to the 2016 election, the seat of Eden-Monaro was long regarded as Australia's most famous bellwether. From the 1972 election until the 2013 election – over 40 years – Eden-Monaro was won by the party that also won government. No longer the nation's famous bellwether seat after the Labor opposition won it at the 2016 election, the nation's new longest-running bellwether is Robertson – continually won by the party that won government since the 1983 election. This trend in Robertson would continue in the 2022 election, with Labor winning the seat and Government.

## Members

| Member | Party | Term | Notes |
| Henry Willis (1860–1950) | Free Trade | 29 March 1901 – 1906 | Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter in 1910 |
| Henry Willis (1860–1950) | Anti-Socialist | 1906 – 26 May 1909 | Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter in 1910 |
| Henry Willis (1860–1950) | Liberal | 26 May 1909 – 13 April 1910 | Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter in 1910 |
| William Johnson (1871–1916) | Labor | 13 April 1910 – 31 May 1913 | Lost seat |
| William Fleming (1874–1961) | Liberal | 31 May 1913 – 17 February 1917 | Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter. Lost seat |
| William Fleming (1874–1961) | Nationalist | 17 February 1917 – March 1921 | Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter. Lost seat |
| William Fleming (1874–1961) | Country | March 1921 – 16 December 1922 | Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Upper Hunter. Lost seat |
| Sydney Gardner (1884–1965) | Nationalist | 16 December 1922 – 7 May 1931 | Served as Chief Government Whip in the House under Lyons. Lost seat |
| Sydney Gardner (1884–1965) | United Australia | 7 May 1931 – 21 September 1940 | Served as Chief Government Whip in the House under Lyons. Lost seat |
| Eric Spooner (1891–1952) | United Australia | 21 September 1940 – 21 August 1943 | Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Ryde and served as Deputy Leader of the United Australia Party in NSW. Served as minister under Menzies and Fadden. Lost seat |
| Thomas Williams (1897–1992) | Labor | 21 August 1943 – 10 December 1949 | Lost seat |
| Roger Dean (1913–1998) | Liberal | 10 December 1949 – 30 September 1964 | Resigned to become Administrator of the Northern Territory |
| William Bridges-Maxwell (1929–1992) | Liberal | 5 December 1964 – 25 October 1969 | Lost seat |
| Barry Cohen (1935–2017) | Labor | 25 October 1969 – 19 February 1990 | Served as minister under Hawke. Retired |
| Frank Walker (1942–2012) | Labor | 24 March 1990 – 2 March 1996 | Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Georges River. Served as minister under Keating. Lost seat |
| Jim Lloyd (1954–) | Liberal | 2 March 1996 – 24 November 2007 | Served as Chief Government Whip in the House under Howard. Served as minister under Howard. Lost seat |
| Belinda Neal (1963–) | Labor | 24 November 2007 – 19 July 2010 | Previously a member of the Senate. Lost preselection and retired |
| Deborah O'Neill (1961–) | Labor | 21 August 2010 – 7 September 2013 | Lost seat. Later appointed to the Senate in 2013 |
| Lucy Wicks (1973–) | Liberal | 7 September 2013 – 21 May 2022 | Lost seat |
| Gordon Reid (1992–) | Labor | 21 May 2022 – present | Incumbent |

## Election results
### Graphical summary

2022 Australian federal election: Robertson :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Liberal | Lucy Wicks | 38,448 | 39.96 | −6.90 |
| | Labor | Gordon Reid | 36,231 | 37.66 | +3.56 |
| | Greens | Shelly McGrath | 9,642 | 10.02 | +2.11 |
| | One Nation | Billy O'Grady | 3,679 | 3.82 | +3.82 |
| | United Australia | Barbara-Jane Murray | 2,792 | 2.90 | +0.09 |
| | Animal Justice | Patrick Murphy | 1,949 | 2.03 | −0.05 |
| | Indigenous-Aboriginal | Jeffrey Lawson | 1,127 | 1.17 | +1.17 |
| | Informed Medical Options | Kate Mason | 1,114 | 1.16 | +1.16 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Bentley Logan | 736 | 0.76 | +0.76 |
| | Australian Citizens | Paul Borthwick | 272 | 0.28 | +0.28 |
| | Federation | Alexandra Hafner | 220 | 0.23 | +0.23 |
| Total formal votes | Total formal votes | Total formal votes | 96,210 | 93.88 | +1.12 |
| Informal votes | Informal votes | Informal votes | 6,274 | 6.12 | −1.12 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 102,484 | 91.07 | −2.10 |
| Two-party-preferred result ||||||
| | Labor | Gordon Reid | 50,277 | 52.26 | +6.50 |
| | Liberal | Lucy Wicks | 45,933 | 47.74 | −6.50 |
| | Labor gain from Liberal | Labor gain from Liberal | Swing | +6.50 | |