# 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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Government :
vte :
The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.
The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.
Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. The election was the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election. As of 2025, this is the last time that Fayette County and Luzerne County voted Democratic in a Senate election. This is also the only time since 1956 that Democrats have won a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race in a presidential year.

## Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates

* Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator
* Joseph Vodvarka, spring maker

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent) | 565,488 | 80.9 |
| | Democratic | Joseph Vodvarka | 133,683 | 19.1 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 699,171 | 100.0 |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### On ballot

* David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate
* John Kensinger, pharmacist
* Sam Rohrer, former state representative from Robeson Township and candidate for governor in 2010
* Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum
* Tom Smith, farmer and businessman and candidate for governor in 2010
* Steve Welch, businessman

#### Withdrew

* Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general elections
* Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activist
* John Vernon, retired Army colonel

#### Declined

* Jake Corman, state senator
* Charlie Dent, U.S. representative
* Jim Gerlach, U.S. representative
* Keith Loiselle, businessman
* Glen Meakem, radio host
* Pat Meehan, U.S. representative
* Tim Murphy, U.S. representative
* Dominic Pileggi, State Senate Majority Leader
* Mark Schweiker, former Pennsylvania governor
* Bill Shuster, U.S. representative
* Mike Turzai, State House Majority Leader
* Kim Ward, state senator
* Joe Watkins, MSNBC contributor

### Campaign

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate. The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.
Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2–1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising. Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years. Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes). Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.
Sam Rohrer, a former state representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.
David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Burns | David Christian | Laureen Cummings | John Kensinger | Sam Rohrer | Marc Scaringi | Tom Smith | John Vernon | Steve Welch | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 400 | ±4.9% | 15% | — | 2% | — | 25% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 43% |
| Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV | February 2–6, 2012 | 500 | ±4.4% | — | 1% | — | 3% | 10% | 1% | 8% | — | 1% | — | 72% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 8–11, 2012 | 564 | ±4.1% | — | 10% | — | — | 16% | 8% | 12% | — | 5% | — | 48% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–25, 2012 | 505 | ±4.2% | — | 1% | — | — | 7% | 1% | 9% | — | 1% | — | 81% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Tom Smith | 299,726 | 39.5 |
| | Republican | Sam Rohrer | 169,118 | 22.3 |
| | Republican | Steve Welch | 158,181 | 20.9 |
| | Republican | David Christian | 79,581 | 10.5 |
| | Republican | Marc Scaringi | 51,908 | 6.8 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 758,514 | 100.0 |

## General election
### Candidates

* Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
* Tom Smith (Republican), businessman
* Rayburn Smith (Libertarian)

### Debates

* Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

### Fundraising

| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
| Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | $7,664,686 | $2,754,060 | $6,226,560 | $5,261 |
| Tom Smith (R) | $7,954,211 | $5,673,558 | $2,280,655 | $6,475,000 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission |||||

#### Top contributors

| Bob Casey, Jr. | Contribution | Tom Smith | Contribution |
| Comcast Corp | $95,175 | Rosebud Mining | $26,000 |
| Blank Rome LLP | $65,500 | Tj Smith Trucking | $15,000 |
| Reed Smith LLP | $61,800 | Penneco Oil Co | $12,500 |
| Cozen O'Connor | $44,975 | Transportation Equipment Supply Co | $11,500 |
| University of Pennsylvania | $44,450 | R&S Machine Co | $10,250 |
| Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney | $43,098 | Citizens United | $10,000 |
| K&L Gates | $42,650 | Mepco LLC | $10,000 |
| Pride Mobility Products | $40,250 | Snyder Armclar Gas | $10,000 |
| Blue Cross & Blue Shield | $39,950 | Stitt Management | $10,000 |
| National Amusements Inc. | $39,250 | Penn Waste | $10,000 |

#### Top industries

| Bob Casey, Jr. | Contribution | Tom Smith | Contribution |
| Lawyers/Law Firms | $2,095,026 | Retired | $104,725 |
| Lobbyists | $407,472 | Mining | $87,800 |
| Real Estate | $389,559 | Republican/Conservative | $43,500 |
| Health Professionals | $336,023 | Oil & Gas | $40,750 |
| Financial Institutions | $335,998 | Misc Business | $35,300 |
| Retired | $329,132 | Financial Institutions | $25,500 |
| Pharmaceuticals/Health Products | $313,597 | Misc Manufacturing & Distributing | $19,650 |
| Hospitals/Nursing Homes | $296,737 | Leadership PACs | $19,000 |
| Entertainment Industry | $237,825 | Misc Energy | $18,000 |
| Insurance | $221,750 | Trucking | $15,250 |

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Likely D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Tom Smith (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | November 2–4, 2012 | 507 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 46% | 1% | — |
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 790 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 44% | — | 3% |
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | November 1–3, 2012 | 430 | ± 5% | 48% | 42% | 2% | 9% |
| Tribune-Review/Susquehanna | October 29–31, 2012 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 23–28, 2012 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 13% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer | October 23–25, 2012 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 24, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Pharos Research | October 19–21, 2012 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| Muhlenberg College Poll | October 17–21, 2012 | 444 | ± 5% | 45% | 37% | 2% | 16% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | October 18–20, 2012 | 559 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 45% | 4% | — |
| Quinnipiac | October 12–14, 2012 | 1,519 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 12–14, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Muhlenberg | October 10–14, 2012 | 438 | ± 5% | 41% | 39% | 1% | 18% |
| Susquehanna Polling | October 11–13, 2012 | 1,376 | ± 2.6% | 46% | 48% | 1% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 9, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 5% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer | October 4–8, 2012 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 38% | — | 14% |
| Susquehanna Polling | October 4–6, 2012 | 725 | ± 3.7% | 46% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Siena Poll | October 1–5, 2012 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 35% | — | 16% |
| Muhlenberg College | September 22–26, 2012 | 427 | ± 5% | 44% | 36% | 7% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll | September 18–24, 2012 | 1,180 | ± 3% | 49% | 43% | — | — |
| Franklin & Marshall | September 18–23, 2012 | 392 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 38% | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 19, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 42% | 2% | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College | September 10–16, 2012 | 640 | ± 4% | 45% | 33% | 5% | 18% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer | August 21–23, 2012 | 601 | ± 4% | 53% | 34% | — | 13% |
| MCall/Muhlenberg Poll | August 20–22, 2012 | 422 | ± 5% | 49% | 30% | — | 18% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 7–12, 2012 | 681 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 23% | 2% | 39% |
| Quinnipiac | July 24–30, 2012 | 1,168 | ± 2.9% | 55% | 37% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 21–23, 2012 | 758 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 36% | — | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 18, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 38% | — | 9% |
| We Ask America | July 9–10, 2012 | 1,227 | ± 2.8% | 53% | 39% | — | 8% |
| Quinnipiac | June 19–25, 2012 | 1,252 | ± 2.8% | 49% | 32% | 1% | 17% |
| Quinnipiac | June 5–10, 2012 | 997 | ± 3.1% | 51% | 32% | 1% | 14% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | May 29–June 4, 2012 | 412 | ± 4.8% | 42% | 21% | 2% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 21, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 41% | 3% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 17–20, 2012 | 671 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 33% | — | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 8–11, 2012 | 689 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 31% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 32% | — | 20% |
Republican primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jake Corman | Laureen Cummings | Charlie Dent | Jim Gerlach | Tim Murphy | Rick Santorum | Marc Scaringi | Mark Schweiker | Kim Ward | Other/ Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 30 – July 5, 2011 | 376 | ± 5.1% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 47% | 1% | — | 0% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 3–5, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 3% | — | 8% | 9% | 7% | 45% | 1% | 8% | 1% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 3–5, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 9% | — | 10% | 14% | 13% | — | 1% | 18% | 2% | 33% |
General election
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Generic Republican | Depends on the candidate | Undecided |
| Quinnipiac | March 7–12, 2012 | 1256 | ± 2.8% | 46% | 34% | 8% | 12% |
| Morning Call | February 15–21, 2012 | 625 | ± 4% | 40% | 25% | 20% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Tim Burns (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 34% | — | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | David Christian (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | March 8–11, 2012 | 689 | ± 3.7% | 50% | 32% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Jake Corman (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 30 – July 5, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 35% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 7–10, 2011 | 593 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 35% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Laureen Cummings (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 30 – July 5, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 31% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 7–10, 2011 | 593 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 32% | — | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Charlie Dent (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | April 7–10, 2011 | 593 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 31% | — | 18% |
| Municipoll | February 21–23, 2011 | 670 | ± 3.79.% | 51% | 32% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 3–5, 2011 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 31% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Jim Gerlach (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 30 – July 5, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 33% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 7–10, 2011 | 593 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 32% | — | 19% |
| Municipoll | February 21–23, 2011 | 670 | ± 3.79.% | 48% | 34% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 3–5, 2011 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 33% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Tim Murphy (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 30 – July 5, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 35% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Sam Rohrer (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | March 8–11, 2012 | 689 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 34% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 36% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Rick Santorum (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Morning Call | February 15–21, 2012 | 625 | ± 4% | 44% | 36% | 7% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 30 – July 5, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 39% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 7–10, 2011 | 593 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Municipoll | February 21–23, 2011 | 670 | ± 3.79.% | 50% | 38% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 3–5, 2011 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 19–21, 2010 | 609 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Marc Scaringi (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | March 8–11, 2012 | 689 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 29% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 30 – July 5, 2011 | 545 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 29% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 7–10, 2011 | 593 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 28% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 3–5, 2011 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 27% | — | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Mark Schweiker (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | January 3–5, 2011 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 34% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Kim Ward (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | April 7–10, 2011 | 593 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 29% | — | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Steve Welch (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | March 8–11, 2012 | 689 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 31% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 17–20, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 33% | — | 20% |

### Results

Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he could win. Casey did win by more than expected, which can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County, home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in statewide elections in Pennsylvania. Casey also performed well in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh. Casey also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it wasn't enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013.
United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent) | 3,021,364 | 53.69% | −4.95% |
| | Republican | Tom Smith | 2,509,132 | 44.59% | +3.31% |
| | Libertarian | Rayburn Smith | 96,926 | 1.72% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 5,627,422 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Armstrong (Largest city: Kittanning)
* Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
* Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
* Clearfield (Largest township: DuBois)
* Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
* Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
* Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage)
* Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)
* Columbia (Largest city: Bloomsburg)
* Elk (Largest city: St. Marys)
* Forest (Largest city: Marienville)
* Indiana (Largest city: Indiana)
* Somerset (largest city: Somerset)
* Schuylkill (Largest city: Pottsville)
* Warren (Largest city: Warren)
* Westmoreland (Largest township: Hempfield Township)
* Washington (Largest township: Peters Township)

#### By congressional district

Casey won 9 of the 18 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans.
| District | Smith | Casey | Representative |
| 1st | 15.85% | 83.36% | Bob Brady |
| 2nd | 8.61% | 90.74% | Chaka Fattah |
| 3rd | 53.94% | 43.87% | Mike Kelly |
| 4th | 54.81% | 42.78% | Jason Altmire |
| 4th | 54.81% | 42.78% | Scott Perry |
| 5th | 55.83% | 41.46% | Glenn Thompson |
| 6th | 48.56% | 49.72% | Jim Gerlach |
| 7th | 48.23% | 50.58% | Pat Meehan |
| 8th | 47.74% | 50.94% | Mike Fitzpatrick |
| 9th | 58.99% | 38.94% | Bill Shuster |
| 10th | 58.12% | 39.84% | Tom Marino |
| 11th | 51.35% | 46.54% | Lou Barletta |
| 12th | 52.79% | 45.31% | Mark Critz |
| 12th | 52.79% | 45.31% | Keith Rothfus |
| 13th | 30.84% | 68.37% | Allyson Schwartz |
| 14th | 27.74% | 70.02% | Mike Doyle |
| 15th | 48.2% | 50.02% | Charlie Dent |
| 16th | 51.6% | 46.52% | Joe Pitts |
| 17th | 40.96% | 57.28% | Tim Holden |
| 17th | 40.96% | 57.28% | Matt Cartwright |
| 18th | 53.4% | 44.81% | Tim Murphy |