# 2023 Port Waikato by-election

The 2023 Port Waikato by-election was held on 25 November 2023. The by-election was triggered by the death of Neil Christensen, who was a candidate for the ACT Party. Christensen's death occurred after the close of candidate nominations for the 2023 New Zealand general election, but before polling day. The by-election was won by National incumbent Andrew Bayly, who has held the Port Waikato seat and its predecessor Hunua since 2014.

## Background
### 2023 general election

Advance voting for the 2023 general election started on 2 October 2023. Christensen's death was announced on 9 October 2023, one week into the advanced voting period. Because New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional voting system, Port Waikato constituents continued to cast a party vote in the general election, but the electorate vote was suspended and any electorate votes already cast were nullified. It was the first time since the 1957 election that an electorate vote had been delayed due to the death of a candidate.
One of the effects of the by-election will be that the winner will add another seat to Parliament beyond those elected at the general election. At the general election, the seat that would have been filled by the Port Waikato winner was instead filled by a list MP. The winner of the by-election will also enter parliament without ejecting any existing MP.

### Electorate

The Port Waikato electorate was first established in 1996, ahead of the first MMP election. The electorate was abolished in 2008 and reinstated for the 2020 election. It stretches from the Manukau Heads at the southern entrance to the Manukau Harbour, south past the eponymous settlement of Port Waikato, to Matira and Pepepe, and inland to Mangatāwhiri and the Maramarua Forest. Pukekohe is the largest population centre in the electorate. Other significant towns include Pōkeno, Te Kauwhata, Tuakau and Waiuku. The electorate includes the New Zealand Steel mill at Glenbrook, and the lower reaches of the Waikato River.
Between the 2013 and 2018 censuses, the Port Waikato electorate experienced annual average population growth of 3.3%, considerably higher than the annual average rate for New Zealand as a whole (2.1%). The electorate is predominantly European (78.2%) and Maori (19.0%), with the shares of those identifying as Asian (8.8%), and Pacific Peoples (6.1%), somewhat lower than the average for New Zealand as a whole. Over a quarter (26.3%) of families had a combined income between $100,000 and $150,000 per year – the second-largest among general electorates.

### Election schedule

Key dates relating to the by-election are as follows:
| 10 October (Tuesday) | Port Waikato electorate by-election dates formally announced |
| 16 October (Monday) | Writ Day Governor General issues writ directing the Electoral Commission to hold the Port Waikato by-election |
| 20 October, noon (Friday) | Nominations close for candidates in the Port Waikato by-election |
| 20 October (Friday) | Port Waikato by-election candidates announced by the Electoral Commission |
| 21 October (Saturday) | Ballot paper printing starts |
| 8 November (Wednesday) | Overseas voting starts |
| 13 November (Monday) | Advance voting starts |
| 24 November (Friday) | All political advertising ceases and election signs taken down by midnight |
| 25 November (Saturday) | Election day for Port Waikato by-election Voting places open from 9am to 7pm |
| 25 November (Saturday) | Preliminary Results progressively available from 7pm |
| 6 December (Wednesday) | Official Results declared (including special declaration and overseas votes) |
| 11 December (Monday) | Deadline for applications for judicial recount |
| 12 December (Tuesday) | Return of Writ by Electoral Commission naming successful candidate (presuming no recount) |
| 26 March 2024 (Tuesday) | Deadline for Returns of Candidate Election Expenses and Donations to Electoral Commission |

## Candidates

All candidates had nominated to contest Port Waikato at the 2023 general election were re-nominated, unless they withdrew. On 20 October, the Labour Party announced that its candidate, Gwendoline Keel, would not contest the by-election, because the party viewed it as "unwinnable" and sought to focus on building a strong opposition against the newly elected government. Green Party candidate Karla Buchanan also withdrew her nomination, while ACT did not nominate a replacement candidate.
| Party | Candidate | Background |
| National | Andrew Bayly | Incumbent MP for Port Waikato; originally nominated for the general election |
| DemocracyNZ | Scotty Bright | Originally nominated for the general election |
| NZ First | Casey Costello | Originally nominated for the general election |
| Independent | Gordon Dickson | New nomination; stood in East Coast at the general election. |
| NewZeal | Alfred Ngaro | New nomination; originally nominated as a list-only candidate for the general election |
| Women's Rights | Jill Ovens | New nomination; originally nominated as a list-only candidate for the general election |
| Animal Justice | Anna Rippon | Originally nominated for the general election |
| Vision NZ | Vijay Sudhamalla | Originally nominated for the general election |
| NZ Loyal | Kim Turner | Originally nominated for the general election |
Andrew Bayly has held the seat since 2014. About a week before polling day, 1News described Andrew Bayly as "a clear favourite", but that he was "facing a strong challenge from NZ First's Casey Costello".

## Campaign

The Democracy NZ candidate, Scotty Bright, stopped campaigning and endorsed the New Zealand First candidate, Casey Costello, saying "It's about Port Waikato being represented by the best party, and we think NZ First has the best ability to do that."

## Results

An estimated 18,759 votes were cast in the by-election, with an estimated turnout of 35.8% of the electorate. This compares to a turnout of 78.2% for the 2023 general election.
Final results show Andrew Bayly of the National party winning with a 11,432 vote margin over his nearest rival, Casey Costello of New Zealand First.
As Bayly had already been elected as a list MP in the 2023 general election, his win meant that National elected an additional MP from its list, Nancy Lu, who became the 123rd member of parliament.
The following table shows the final results of the by-election.
2023 Port Waikato by-election :
| Notes: Blue background denotes the winner of the by-election. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list prior to the by-election. Yellow background denotes the winner of the by-election, who was a list MP prior to the by-election. A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively. ||||||
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | National | Y Andrew Bayly | 14,296 | 76.33 | +37.48 |
| | NZ First | Casey Costello | 2,864 | 15.30 | |
| | NewZeal | Alfred Ngaro | 409 | 2.18 | +1.74 |
| | Animal Justice | Anna Rippon | 297 | 1.58 | |
| | NZ Loyal | Kim Turner | 237 | 1.27 | |
| | DemocracyNZ | Scotty Bright | 225 | 1.20 | |
| | Women's Rights | Jill Ovens | 188 | 1.00 | |
| | Independent | Gordon Dickson | 88 | 0.47 | |
| | Vision NZ | Vijay Sudhamalla | 48 | 0.26 | |
| Informal votes | Informal votes | Informal votes | 76 | 0.41 | –1.26 |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 18,728 | 61.03 | +50.35 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 18,728 | 35.69 | |
| | National hold | National hold | Swing | | |