# Hertsmere (UK Parliament constituency)

Hertsmere is a constituency in Hertfordshire, England, represented in the House of Commons since 2015 by Sir Oliver Dowden of the Conservative Party, who is a former deputy prime minister.

## Constituency profile

Just beyond the northwestern boundary of Greater London and with fast railway links into the capital, Hertsmere is a Parliamentary constituency in the Home Counties. The constituency is in the London Commuter Belt, largely inside London's orbital motorway, the M25, and within the London green belt, in the South-West of Hertfordshire. Political consultancy Electoral Calculus classifies the constituency's population as broadly Conservative 'kind yuppies'. Hertsmere has the third-highest Jewish population of any UK Parliamentary constituency.
According to the census for England and Wales, the population of the Hertsmere local authority area (which presently corresponds to the area of the Parliamentary constituency) has increased by 7.8%, from around 100,000 in 2011 to 107,800 in 2021. This is higher than the overall increase for England (6.6%), where the population grew by nearly 3.5 million to 56,489,800, but slightly lower than the increase for the East of England region that Hertsmere belongs to (8.3%). The fastest growing age group in Hertsmere is the over-65s, which has increased since 2011 by 17.6%, close to the overall rate of growth for this age group in England (20.1%).
Parts of the constituency are among the most prosperous in Britain but 2015 data from the English Multiple deprivation index for the Borough of Hertsmere shows widely varying levels of deprivation, with overall deprivation levels – on a scale from 1 (the most deprived) to 32,844 (the least deprived) – ranging from 3,049 for Borehamwood Cowley Hill, the most deprived area in Hertfordshire and in the 10% most deprived nationally, to 32,695 for Bushey Heath, in the 1% least deprived.
The constituency of Hertsmere has returned a Conservative Member of Parliament at every general election since its creation and has been a safe seat almost throughout, with majorities ranging from 3,075 in 1997 (the election in which Labour won 418 Parliamentary seats, the largest number ever held by a single party) to 21,313 in 2019 (when the Conservative Party won 365 seats and a Parliamentary majority of 85). A close result for second place occurred in 2010, with only 661 votes separating the Labour Party and Liberal Democrat candidates.
In the history of the constituency the Liberal Democrat vote share has fallen substantially, from a quarter of the vote and second place ahead of Labour in 1983, to less than half that and third place in 2019. In 2015 the party fell to fourth place.

## Boundaries and composition
### 1983–1997

* The Borough of Hertsmere; and
* The City of St Albans ward of London Colney.
The new county constituency was formed largely from the bulk of the abolished constituency of South Hertfordshire. It also included the area comprising the former Urban District of Bushey, transferred from South West Hertfordshire.

### 1997–2024

From 1997 to 2024 the constituency was coterminous with the borough of Hertsmere in southern Hertfordshire (before then it had also included the City of St Albans ward of London Colney, which was transferred to the St Albans constituency).
Following its review of parliamentary representation in Hertfordshire, the Boundary Commission recommended no changes to constituency boundaries for the 2010 general election. The seat contained these electoral wards:
* Aldenham East, Aldenham West, Borehamwood Brookmeadow, Borehamwood Cowley Hill, Borehamwood Hillside, Borehamwood Kenilworth, Bushey Heath, Bushey North, Bushey Park, Bushey St James, Elstree, Potters Bar Furzefield, Potters Bar Oakmere, Potters Bar Parkfield, Shenley.

### Current

In 2021 the Boundary Commission for England, as part of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, published draft changes to constituency boundaries. On 8 November 2022, the final draft of the Boundary Commission's proposals was published, following consultation. The revised Hertsmere CC (County Constituency) was as proposed in the previous draft and became effective for the 2024 general election. Although the electorate of the constituency was within 5% of the new 'electoral quota' of 73,393, the commission proposed that changes be made to enable neighbouring constituencies to remain within the electoral range. The borough ward of Bushey North, previously in the Hertsmere constituency, joined the Watford constituency and the Welwyn Hatfield borough ward of Northaw and Cuffley, previously in the Broxbourne constituency, joined Hertsmere. The new Hertsmere constituency contains an electorate of approximately 73,256.
Hertsmere consists of the major towns and villages of Bushey, Radlett, Potters Bar and Borehamwood, elevated settlements above the headwaters of the River Colne which forms much of the northern border. Bushey borders Watford and the London Borough of Harrow to the west and south west, while Potters Bar borders Barnet and Broxbourne on the east. Borehamwood is just south-east of the centre, the largest town in the constituency — in the north and centre is Radlett, separated by two large villages and farms from St Albans to the north.

## Members of Parliament

This safe Conservative constituency was created in 1983 from the former seat of South Hertfordshire. Cecil Parkinson, who had entered Parliament in 1970 and had previously represented South Hertfordshire, was MP from the seat's creation until his retirement in 1992. He was a close ally of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and had run her successful 1983 election campaign. Parkinson stepped down from government on the day of Thatcher's resignation as Conservative Party leader.
James Clappison held the seat for five electoral terms, from 1992 until his decision to stand down from parliament at the 2015 general election.
The seat was subsequently won by Oliver Dowden.
| Election | Member | Party |
| 1983 | Cecil Parkinson | Conservative |
| 1992 | James Clappison | Conservative |
| 2015 | Oliver Dowden | Conservative |

## Elections
### Elections in the 2020s

General election 2024: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | Oliver Dowden | 21,451 | 44.7 | −20.2 |
| | Labour | Josh Tapper | 13,459 | 28.0 | +6.9 |
| | Reform UK | Darren Selkus | 6,584 | 13.7 | New |
| | Liberal Democrats | Emma Matanle | 3,710 | 7.7 | −3.2 |
| | Green | John Humphries | 2,267 | 4.7 | +1.6 |
| | Independent | Ray Bolster | 536 | 1.1 | New |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 7,992 | 16.7 | −24.1 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 48,007 | 65.3 | −6.4 |
| Registered electors | Registered electors | Registered electors | 73,518 | | |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | −13.6 | |

### Elections in the 2010s

2019 notional result :
| Party | Party | Vote | % |
| | Conservative | 34,083 | 64.9 |
| | Labour | 11,103 | 21.1 |
| | Liberal Democrats | 5,713 | 10.9 |
| | Green | 1,614 | 3.1 |
| Turnout | Turnout | 52,513 | 71.7 |
| Electorate | Electorate | 73,256 |
General election 2019: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | Oliver Dowden | 32,651 | 62.5 | +1.4 |
| | Labour | Holly Kal-Weiss | 11,338 | 21.7 | −7.0 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Stephen Barrett | 6,561 | 12.6 | +7.3 |
| | Green | John Humphries | 1,653 | 3.2 | +1.3 |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 21,313 | 40.8 | +8.4 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 52,203 | 70.6 | −0.6 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | +4.2 | |
General election 2017: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | Oliver Dowden | 31,928 | 61.1 | +1.8 |
| | Labour | Fiona Smith | 14,977 | 28.7 | +6.3 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Joe Jordan | 2,794 | 5.3 | −0.2 |
| | UKIP | David Hoy | 1,564 | 3.0 | −9.7 |
| | Green | Sophie Summerhayes | 990 | 1.9 | New |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 16,951 | 32.4 | −4.5 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 52,389 | 71.2 | +3.3 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | −2.3 | |
General election 2015: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | Oliver Dowden | 29,696 | 59.3 | +3.3 |
| | Labour | Richard Butler | 11,235 | 22.4 | +3.6 |
| | UKIP | Frank Ward | 6,383 | 12.7 | +9.1 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Sophie Bowler | 2,777 | 5.5 | −11.9 |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 18,461 | 36.9 | −0.3 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 50,091 | 67.9 | +3.2 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | −0.2 | |
General election 2010: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | James Clappison | 26,476 | 56.0 | +2.8 |
| | Labour | Sam Russell | 8,871 | 18.8 | −8.4 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Anthony Rowlands | 8,210 | 17.4 | −1.0 |
| | UKIP | David Rutter | 1,712 | 3.6 | New |
| | BNP | Daniel Seabrook | 1,397 | 3.0 | New |
| | Green | Arjuna Krishna-Das | 604 | 1.3 | New |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 17,605 | 37.2 | +11.2 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 47,270 | 64.7 | +1.7 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | +5.6 | |

### Elections in the 2000s

General election 2005: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | James Clappison | 22,665 | 53.2 | +5.4 |
| | Labour | Kelly Tebb | 11,572 | 27.2 | −8.8 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Jonathan Davies | 7,817 | 18.4 | +3.2 |
| | Socialist Labour | James Dry | 518 | 1.2 | +0.2 |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 11,093 | 26.0 | +14.2 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 42,572 | 63.0 | +2.7 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | +7.1 | |
General election 2001: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | James Clappison | 19,855 | 47.8 | +3.5 |
| | Labour | Hilary Broderick | 14,953 | 36.0 | −2.2 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Paul Thompson | 6,300 | 15.2 | +2.4 |
| | Socialist Labour | James Dry | 397 | 1.0 | New |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 4,902 | 11.8 | +5.7 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 41,505 | 60.3 | −13.7 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | +2.9 | |

### Elections in the 1990s

General election 1997: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | James Clappison | 22,305 | 44.3 | −12.5 |
| | Labour | Beth Kelly | 19,230 | 38.2 | +14.5 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Ann Gray | 6,466 | 12.8 | −6.1 |
| | Referendum | James Marlow | 1,703 | 3.4 | New |
| | UKIP | Rodney Saunders | 453 | 0.9 | New |
| | Natural Law | Nigel Kahn | 191 | 0.4 | New |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 3,075 | 6.1 | −27.0 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 50,348 | 74.0 | −6.9 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | −13.5 | |
General election 1992: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | James Clappison | 32,133 | 56.8 | +0.2 |
| | Labour | David Souter | 13,398 | 23.7 | +4.1 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Zerbanoo Gifford | 10,681 | 18.9 | −4.9 |
| | Natural Law | Diana Harding | 373 | 0.7 | New |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 18,735 | 33.1 | +0.3 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 56,585 | 80.9 | +5.5 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | −2.1 | |

### Elections in the 1980s

General election 1987: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | Cecil Parkinson | 31,278 | 56.6 | +3.4 |
| | Liberal | Laurence Brass | 13,172 | 23.8 | −1.8 |
| | Labour | Frank Ward | 10,835 | 19.6 | +0.4 |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 18,106 | 32.8 | +5.2 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 55,285 | 75.4 | +1.7 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | +2.6 | |
General election 1983: Hertsmere :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | Cecil Parkinson | 28,628 | 53.2 | |
| | Liberal | Zerbanoo Gifford | 13,758 | 25.6 | |
| | Labour | Ian Reed | 10,315 | 19.2 | |
| | Independent Communist | Ronald Parkinson | 1,116 | 2.1 | |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 14,870 | 27.6 | |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 53,817 | 73.7 | |
| | Conservative win (new seat) | Conservative win (new seat) | Conservative win (new seat) | Conservative win (new seat) | Conservative win (new seat) |