# 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election

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The 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election was a special election held on August 23, 2022. The seat became vacant after incumbent Democratic representative Antonio Delgado resigned on May 25, 2022, to become lieutenant governor of New York. Democratic nominee Pat Ryan won a slight victory over Republican nominee Marc Molinaro in what was seen as an upset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election.

## Candidates
### Democratic Party
#### Nominee

* Pat Ryan, Ulster County executive and candidate for this district in 2018

#### Declined

* Michelle Hinchey, state senator from the 46th district (endorsed Ryan)
* Zephyr Teachout, special advisor in the office of the Attorney General of New York, Fordham University law professor; candidate for governor in 2014, nominee for this district in 2016, candidate for attorney general in 2018 and 2022

### Republican Party
#### Nominee

* Marc Molinaro, Dutchess County executive and former state assemblyman; nominee for governor in 2018

## Endorsements

U.S. representatives
* Sean Patrick Maloney, U.S. representative from New York's 18th congressional district (2013–present)
Statewide officials
* Antonio Delgado, Lieutenant Governor of New York (2022–present) and former U.S. Representative from New York's 19th congressional district (2019–2022)
* Thomas DiNapoli, Comptroller of New York (2007–present)
* Kathy Hochul, Governor of New York (2021–present), former lieutenant governor of New York (2015–2021), and former U.S. Representative from New York's 26th congressional district (2011–2013)
State legislators
* Michelle Hinchey, state senator for the 46th district
Mayors
* Gary Bassett, mayor of Rhinebeck
* Joe DeStefano, mayor of Middletown
* Torrance Harvey, mayor of Newburgh
* Jeff Kaplan, mayor of Ellenville
* Lee Kyriacou, mayor of Beacon
* Steve Noble, mayor of Kingston
* Tim Rogers, mayor of New Paltz
* Karen Smythe, mayor of Red Hook
Organizations
* VoteVets.org
U.S. representatives
* Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)
Organizations
* National Federation of Independent Business
* New York Federation of College Republicans
* United States Chamber of Commerce

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | May 5, 2022 |
| Inside Elections | Tossup | July 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | May 11, 2022 |

### Polling

Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Ryan (D) | Marc Molinaro (R) | Undecided |
| Data for Progress (D) | August 17–22, 2022 | 1,222 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D) | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | July 26–28, 2022 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 50% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 29–30, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | 16% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | June 16–20, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 52% | 10% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D) | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 45% | 12% |

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022 :
| Candidate | Amount raised | Amount spent | Cash on hand |
| Marc Molinaro (R) | $1,593,762 | $993,626 | $600,136 |
| Pat Ryan (D) | $1,582,369 | $1,265,848 | $316,522 |
| Source: OpenSecrets ||||

### Results

Pat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins in Ulster County. Ryan overperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising. Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the 2022 House election.
2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Pat Ryan | 58,636 | 45.39% | –2.61 |
| | Working Families | Pat Ryan | 7,452 | 5.77% | –0.78 |
| | Total | Pat Ryan | 66,088 | 51.15% | –3.64 |
| | Republican | Marc Molinaro | 52,514 | 40.65% | –2.55 |
| | Conservative | Marc Molinaro | 10,496 | 8.12% | N/A |
| | Total | Marc Molinaro | 63,010 | 48.77% | +5.57 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 96 | 0.07% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 129,194 | 100.00% | |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 129,328 | 27.16% | |
| Registered electors | Registered electors | Registered electors | 476,134 | | |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |
By county :
| County | Pat Ryan Democratic | Pat Ryan Democratic | Marc Molinaro Republican | Marc Molinaro Republican | Write-in | Write-in | Margin | Margin | Total votes | Turnout |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total votes | Turnout |
| Broome (part) | 81 | 30.00 | 189 | 70.00 | 0 | 0.00 | -108 | -40.00 | 270 | 18.90 |
| Columbia | 9,026 | 57.35 | 6,704 | 42.60 | 8 | 0.05 | 2,322 | 14.75 | 15,738 | 32.71 |
| Delaware | 3,033 | 41.42 | 4,287 | 58.55 | 2 | 0.03 | -1,254 | -17.13 | 7,322 | 24.85 |
| Dutchess (part) | 12,257 | 48.44 | 13,030 | 51.49 | 17 | 0.07 | -773 | -3.05 | 25,304 | 31.07 |
| Greene | 3,632 | 39.21 | 5,626 | 60.74 | 4 | 0.04 | -1,994 | -21.53 | 9,262 | 28.67 |
| Montgomery (part) | 440 | 36.48 | 766 | 63.52 | 0 | 0.00 | -326 | -27.03 | 1,206 | 14.16 |
| Otsego | 4,153 | 48.26 | 4,434 | 51.52 | 19 | 0.22 | -281 | -3.27 | 8,606 | 24.23 |
| Rensselaer (part) | 3,901 | 45.13 | 4,739 | 54.83 | 3 | 0.04 | -838 | -9.70 | 8,643 | 18.51 |
| Schoharie | 1,642 | 34.05 | 3,176 | 65.85 | 5 | 0.10 | -1,534 | -31.81 | 4,823 | 24.27 |
| Sullivan | 3,881 | 42.72 | 5,196 | 57.19 | 8 | 0.09 | -1,315 | -14.47 | 9,085 | 18.84 |
| Ulster | 24,042 | 61.75 | 14,863 | 38.17 | 30 | 0.08 | 9,179 | 23.58 | 38,935 | 31.35 |
| Totals | 66,088 | 51.15 | 63,010 | 48.77 | 96 | 0.07 | 3,078 | 2.38 | 129,194 | 27.16 |