# 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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vte :
The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.38% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan in 1984, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state, and faced similar political scrutiny to neighboring Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results in Wisconsin were nearly identical to the results from four years earlier, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush, and the 2020 presidential election when Joe Biden had a similarly narrow victory in Wisconsin against Donald Trump.
As of 2024, this is the most recent election to date in which Wisconsin would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Michigan and Pennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation. This was also only the third time since 1960 (after 2000 and 1988) that it would vote for the losing candidate. Bush is to date the only presidential candidate to win two terms in office without carrying Wisconsin at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state.

## Primaries

* 2004 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary
* 2004 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary

## Campaign
### Predictions

There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
| Source | Ranking |
| D.C. Political Report | Lean D |
| Associated Press | Toss-up |
| CNN | Likely R (flip) |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up |
| Newsweek | Toss-up |
| New York Times | Toss-up |
| Rasmussen Reports | Toss-up |
| Research 2000 | Toss-up |
| Washington Post | Toss-up |
| Washington Times | Toss-up |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely R (flip) |

### Polling

Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll averages showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.

### Fundraising

Bush raised $1,993,040. Kerry raised $1,130,602.

### Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times. A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.

## Analysis

Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the fifth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.
The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.

## Results

2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes |
| | Democratic | John Forbes Kerry | 1,489,504 | 49.70% | 10 |
| | Republican | George Walker Bush (Incumbent) | 1,478,120 | 49.32% | 0 |
| | Independent | Ralph Nader | 16,390 | 0.55% | 0 |
| | Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 6,464 | 0.22% | 0 |
| | Green | David Cobb | 2,661 | 0.09% | 0 |
| | Independent | Walt Brown | 471 | 0.02% | 0 |
| | Independent | Roger Calero | 411 | 0.01% | 0 |
| | Write Ins | Write Ins | 2,986 | 0.10% | 0 |
| Totals | Totals | Totals | 2,997,007 | 100.00% | 10 |
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | Voter turnout (Voting age population) | Voter turnout (Voting age population) | Voter turnout (Voting age population) | Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 72.4% |

### By county

| County | John Kerry Democratic | John Kerry Democratic | George W. Bush Republican | George W. Bush Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total votes cast |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total votes cast |
| Adams | 5,447 | 52.09% | 4,890 | 46.77% | 119 | 1.14% | 557 | 5.32% | 10,456 |
| Ashland | 5,805 | 63.10% | 3,313 | 36.01% | 81 | 0.88% | 2,492 | 27.09% | 9,199 |
| Barron | 11,696 | 48.86% | 12,030 | 50.26% | 211 | 0.89% | -334 | -1.40% | 23,937 |
| Bayfield | 5,845 | 60.26% | 3,754 | 38.71% | 100 | 1.03% | 2,091 | 21.55% | 9,699 |
| Brown | 54,935 | 44.56% | 67,173 | 54.48% | 1,186 | 0.96% | -12,238 | -9.92% | 123,294 |
| Buffalo | 3,998 | 52.67% | 3,502 | 46.13% | 91 | 1.20% | 496 | 6.54% | 7,591 |
| Burnett | 4,499 | 48.27% | 4,743 | 50.89% | 79 | 0.85% | -244 | -2.62% | 9,321 |
| Calumet | 10,290 | 40.71% | 14,721 | 58.24% | 265 | 1.05% | -4,431 | -17.53% | 25,276 |
| Chippewa | 14,751 | 48.33% | 15,450 | 50.62% | 323 | 1.06% | -699 | -2.29% | 30,524 |
| Clark | 6,966 | 46.06% | 7,966 | 52.67% | 193 | 1.27% | -1,000 | -6.61% | 15,125 |
| Columbia | 14,300 | 48.38% | 14,956 | 50.60% | 299 | 1.01% | -656 | -2.22% | 29,555 |
| Crawford | 4,656 | 55.04% | 3,680 | 43.50% | 123 | 1.45% | 976 | 11.54% | 8,459 |
| Dane | 181,052 | 66.02% | 90,369 | 32.95% | 2,828 | 1.03% | 90,683 | 33.07% | 274,249 |
| Dodge | 16,690 | 37.64% | 27,201 | 61.35% | 445 | 1.01% | -10,511 | -23.71% | 44,336 |
| Door | 8,367 | 47.84% | 8,910 | 50.94% | 214 | 1.22% | -543 | -3.10% | 17,491 |
| Douglas | 16,537 | 65.66% | 8,448 | 33.54% | 202 | 0.81% | 8,089 | 32.12% | 25,187 |
| Dunn | 12,039 | 51.95% | 10,879 | 46.95% | 254 | 1.09% | 1,160 | 5.00% | 23,172 |
| Eau Claire | 30,068 | 54.24% | 24,653 | 44.47% | 716 | 1.30% | 5,415 | 9.77% | 55,437 |
| Florence | 993 | 36.45% | 1,703 | 62.52% | 28 | 1.03% | -710 | -26.07% | 2,724 |
| Fond du Lac | 19,216 | 36.23% | 33,291 | 62.77% | 529 | 1.00% | -14,075 | -26.54% | 53,036 |
| Forest | 2,509 | 48.69% | 2,608 | 50.61% | 36 | 0.70% | -99 | -1.92% | 5,153 |
| Grant | 12,864 | 50.92% | 12,208 | 48.32% | 192 | 0.76% | 656 | 2.60% | 25,264 |
| Green | 9,575 | 52.47% | 8,497 | 46.56% | 176 | 0.96% | 1,078 | 5.91% | 18,248 |
| Green Lake | 3,605 | 35.42% | 6,472 | 63.59% | 101 | 0.99% | -2,867 | -28.17% | 10,178 |
| Iowa | 7,122 | 56.79% | 5,348 | 42.64% | 72 | 0.57% | 1,774 | 14.15% | 12,542 |
| Iron | 1,956 | 50.43% | 1,884 | 48.57% | 39 | 1.00% | 72 | 1.86% | 3,879 |
| Jackson | 5,249 | 53.97% | 4,387 | 45.11% | 90 | 0.92% | 862 | 8.86% | 9,726 |
| Jefferson | 17,925 | 42.56% | 23,776 | 56.45% | 414 | 0.98% | -5,851 | -13.89% | 42,115 |
| Juneau | 5,734 | 46.32% | 6,473 | 52.29% | 172 | 1.39% | -739 | -5.97% | 12,379 |
| Kenosha | 40,107 | 52.48% | 35,587 | 46.56% | 734 | 0.96% | 4,520 | 5.92% | 76,428 |
| Kewaunee | 5,175 | 45.91% | 5,970 | 52.96% | 128 | 1.13% | -795 | -7.05% | 11,273 |
| La Crosse | 33,170 | 53.38% | 28,289 | 45.53% | 677 | 1.09% | 4,881 | 7.85% | 62,136 |
| Lafayette | 4,402 | 52.48% | 3,929 | 46.84% | 57 | 0.68% | 473 | 5.64% | 8,388 |
| Langlade | 4,751 | 42.90% | 6,235 | 56.30% | 88 | 0.80% | -1,484 | -13.40% | 11,074 |
| Lincoln | 7,484 | 47.67% | 8,024 | 51.11% | 192 | 1.22% | -540 | -3.44% | 15,700 |
| Manitowoc | 20,652 | 46.77% | 23,027 | 52.14% | 481 | 1.09% | -2,375 | -5.37% | 44,160 |
| Marathon | 30,899 | 45.40% | 36,394 | 53.47% | 766 | 1.12% | -5,495 | -8.07% | 68,059 |
| Marinette | 10,190 | 45.76% | 11,866 | 53.28% | 214 | 0.96% | -1,676 | -7.52% | 22,270 |
| Marquette | 3,785 | 44.65% | 4,604 | 54.31% | 88 | 1.03% | -819 | -9.66% | 8,477 |
| Menominee | 1,412 | 82.57% | 288 | 16.84% | 10 | 0.58% | 1,124 | 65.73% | 1,710 |
| Milwaukee | 297,653 | 61.72% | 180,287 | 37.39% | 4,296 | 0.89% | 117,366 | 24.33% | 482,236 |
| Monroe | 8,973 | 45.89% | 10,375 | 53.06% | 206 | 1.05% | -1,402 | -7.17% | 19,554 |
| Oconto | 8,534 | 43.11% | 11,043 | 55.79% | 217 | 1.10% | -2,509 | -12.68% | 19,794 |
| Oneida | 10,464 | 47.48% | 11,351 | 51.50% | 224 | 1.02% | -887 | -4.02% | 22,039 |
| Outagamie | 40,169 | 44.61% | 48,903 | 54.31% | 978 | 1.09% | -8,734 | -9.70% | 90,050 |
| Ozaukee | 17,714 | 33.40% | 34,904 | 65.82% | 414 | 0.78% | -17,190 | -32.42% | 53,032 |
| Pepin | 2,181 | 53.64% | 1,853 | 45.57% | 32 | 0.79% | 328 | 8.07% | 4,066 |
| Pierce | 11,176 | 51.09% | 10,437 | 47.71% | 263 | 1.21% | 739 | 3.38% | 21,876 |
| Polk | 11,173 | 47.54% | 12,095 | 51.46% | 235 | 1.00% | -922 | -3.92% | 23,503 |
| Portage | 21,861 | 56.11% | 16,546 | 42.47% | 554 | 1.43% | 5,315 | 13.64% | 38,961 |
| Price | 4,349 | 49.63% | 4,312 | 49.21% | 102 | 1.17% | 37 | 0.42% | 8,763 |
| Racine | 48,229 | 47.48% | 52,456 | 51.65% | 884 | 0.87% | -4,227 | -4.17% | 101,569 |
| Richland | 4,501 | 47.78% | 4,836 | 51.34% | 83 | 0.88% | -335 | -3.56% | 9,420 |
| Rock | 46,598 | 57.90% | 33,151 | 41.19% | 730 | 0.91% | 13,447 | 16.71% | 80,479 |
| Rusk | 3,820 | 48.19% | 3,985 | 50.27% | 122 | 1.53% | -165 | -2.08% | 7,927 |
| St. Croix | 18,784 | 44.90% | 22,679 | 54.21% | 372 | 0.89% | -3,895 | -9.31% | 41,835 |
| Sauk | 15,708 | 51.64% | 14,415 | 47.39% | 294 | 0.96% | 1,293 | 4.25% | 30,417 |
| Sawyer | 4,411 | 46.66% | 4,951 | 52.37% | 91 | 0.97% | -540 | -5.71% | 9,453 |
| Shawano | 8,657 | 41.23% | 12,150 | 57.86% | 192 | 0.92% | -3,493 | -16.63% | 20,999 |
| Sheboygan | 27,608 | 44.08% | 34,458 | 55.02% | 559 | 0.90% | -6,850 | -10.94% | 62,625 |
| Taylor | 3,829 | 40.12% | 5,582 | 58.49% | 132 | 1.38% | -1,753 | -18.37% | 9,543 |
| Trempealeau | 8,075 | 57.42% | 5,878 | 41.80% | 109 | 0.77% | 2,197 | 15.62% | 14,062 |
| Vernon | 7,924 | 53.38% | 6,774 | 45.63% | 147 | 0.99% | 1,150 | 7.75% | 14,845 |
| Vilas | 5,713 | 40.80% | 8,155 | 58.24% | 134 | 0.95% | -2,442 | -17.44% | 14,002 |
| Walworth | 19,177 | 39.58% | 28,754 | 59.35% | 515 | 1.06% | -9,577 | -19.77% | 48,446 |
| Washburn | 4,705 | 49.18% | 4,762 | 49.78% | 100 | 1.05% | -57 | -0.60% | 9,567 |
| Washington | 21,234 | 29.30% | 50,641 | 69.88% | 592 | 0.82% | -29,407 | -40.58% | 72,467 |
| Waukesha | 73,626 | 31.96% | 154,926 | 67.25% | 1,811 | 0.79% | -81,300 | -35.29% | 230,363 |
| Waupaca | 10,792 | 40.01% | 15,941 | 59.10% | 241 | 0.89% | -5,149 | -19.09% | 26,974 |
| Waushara | 5,257 | 42.93% | 6,888 | 56.25% | 101 | 0.83% | -1,631 | -13.32% | 12,246 |
| Winnebago | 40,943 | 46.21% | 46,542 | 52.53% | 1,111 | 1.25% | -5,599 | -6.32% | 88,596 |
| Wood | 18,950 | 47.29% | 20,592 | 51.39% | 529 | 1.32% | -1,642 | -4.10% | 40,071 |
| Totals | 1,489,504 | 49.70% | 1,478,120 | 49.32% | 29,383 | 0.98% | 11,384 | 0.38% | 2,997,007 |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Iron (Largest city: Hurley)
* Price (Largest city: Park Falls)

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Columbia (Largest city: Portage)

### By congressional district

Bush and Kerry each won four of eight congressional districts.
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
| 1st | 53% | 46% | Paul Ryan |
| 2nd | 37% | 62% | Tammy Baldwin |
| 3rd | 48% | 51% | Ron Kind |
| 4th | 30% | 69% | Jerry Kleczka |
| 4th | 30% | 69% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 63% | 36% | Jim Sensenbrenner |
| 6th | 56% | 42% | Tom Petri |
| 7th | 49% | 50% | Dave Obey |
| 8th | 55% | 44% | Mark Andrew Green |

## Electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.
* Gail Gabrelian
* Margaret McEntire
* Jordan Franklin
* Martha Toran
* Jim Shinners
* Jan Banicki
* Daniel Hannula
* Steve Mellenthin
* Glenn Carlson
* Linda Honold