# January 2021 Tobago House of Assembly election

House of Assembly elections were held in Tobago on 25 January 2021 where 12 members were elected in the eleventh election since the Assembly was established in 1980. This election marked the first time in history that both parties elected, the People's National Movement (PNM) and Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP) won an equal number seats of 6-6, despite the PNM winning the popular vote, resulting in a deadlock and a constitutional crisis with both political parties and Prime Minister Keith Rowley seeking senior counsel advice on the way forward. This election was the first time after 20 years in power that the PNM lost its absolute majority. This election also marked the first time a female political leader was elected to the Assembly and the first time a woman led a major political party or a political party with representation in the Assembly, following the 2020 Tobago Council of the People's National Movement leadership election where Health Secretary, councillor and former Trinidad and Tobago Ambassador to Costa Rica and former Deputy Chief Secretary of Tobago Tracy Davidson-Celestine made history by being elected as the PNM's first female political leader at the regional or national level and one of the first bilingual political leaders in the country's history. If Davidson-Celestine and the PNM were to be elected with a majority to their sixth consecutive term in office, she would have made history, becoming the first female Chief Secretary of Tobago. The election was held alongside local by-elections in Trinidad in which the PNM and UNC retained two districts and the PNM losing one to the UNC.
To break the deadlock and offer a solution to the constitutional crisis, Parliament intervened and passed the THA Amendment Act in March 2021 allowing the Election and Boundaries Commission (EBC) the mandate to increase the electoral boundaries. In September 2021, the EBC report was passed in the Parliament, increasing the electoral boundaries from 12 seats to 15. On 6 October 2021, Chief Secretary Ancil Dennis announced the December 2021 Tobago House of Assembly election to be held on 6 December 2021.

## Background
### 2017 Tobago House of Assembly election

The governing Tobago Council of the People's National Movement led by Kelvin Charles were able to retain a strong majority in the Assembly, though not as impressive as their total sweep of all 12 seats in the previous election. Charles became Chief Secretary following the retirement of his predecessor Orville London.

### Leadership change

In 2020 Kelvin Charles lost re-election as Leader of the Tobago Council of the People's National Movement and was replaced by Tracy Davidson-Celestine. Days before a vote of no-confidence in Chief Secretary Kelvin Charles petitioned by eight of the 12 members of the THA to Presiding Officer Vanessa Cutting-Thomas, Charles resigned as Chief Secretary and was replaced by elected assembly member Ancil Dennis with Davidson-Celestine, who is not an elected member of the assembly, being appointed as a councilor in the THA and Health Secretary.

### 2020 Trinidad and Tobago General Election

At the 2020 general election, there was no net change in the number of seats for each party, the PNM decreased their vote share to 61% but was able to retain both seats. The PDP managed 39% of the vote.

### Lead candidates

On 24 November 2019, incumbent Minority Leader in the Tobago House of Assembly and Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP) political leader and Public Services Association President Watson Duke publicly endorsed incumbent assembly member for Parlatuvier/ L’Anse Fourmi/Speyside and PDP deputy political leader, Farley Chavez Augustine, as the party's lead candidate for the election. Following the 2020 Tobago Council of the People's National Movement leadership election held on January 19, 2020, Tracy Davidson-Celestine was elected as the party's first female political leader and thus the lead candidate for the PNM.

## Electoral system

All twelve members are elected via first-past-the-post.
All Tobagonians and Commonwealth citizens aged 18 or over, legally resident in Tobago and who have resided in an electoral district for at least two months prior to the election date are entitled to vote in the elections.

## Parties

Political parties registered with the Elections And Boundaries Commission can contest the House of Assembly election as a party. The following registered parties contested the House of Assembly election:
| Party | Party | Founded | Ideology | Lead candidate | Lead candidate's seat | Leader(s) | Leader since | Leader's seat | 2017 Election Results | 2017 Election Results | Seats at dissolution | Seats contesting | Notes |
| Party | Party | Founded | Ideology | Lead candidate | Lead candidate's seat | Leader(s) | Leader since | Leader's seat | % party vote | Seats | Seats at dissolution | Seats contesting | Notes |
| | PNM | 1955 | Centre to centre-left, Liberalism, Social liberalism, Moderate nationalism | Tracy Davidson-Celestine | Ran in Lambeau/Signal Hill (won) | Tracy Davidson-Celestine | January 25, 2020 | Ran in Lambeau/Signal Hill (won) | 54.68% | 10 / 12 (83%) | 10 / 12 (83%) | 12 seats | |
| | PDP | 2016 | Tobago regionalism | Farley Chavez Augustine | Parlatuvier/ L’Anse Fourmi/Speyside | Watson Duke | July 2016 | Belle Garden East/Roxborough/Delaford | 30.96% | 2 / 12 (17%) | 2 / 12 (17%) | 12 seats | |
| | UTP | 2020 | Tobago regionalism | Nickocy Phillips | Buccoo/Mount Pleasant | Nickocy Phillips | July 2020 | Ran in Buccoo/Mount Pleasant (lost) | not founded | — | — | 1 seat | |
| | CARM | 2010 | Tobago regionalism | Ricardo Phillip | Buccoo/Mount Pleasant | Ricardo Phillip | January 2010 | Ran in Buccoo/Mount Pleasant (lost) | — | — | — | 1 seat | — |

## Campaign

Both the PNM and PDP announced candidates in all 12 districts. Former Presiding Officer of the Tobago House of Assembly and defeated candidate in the 2020 Tobago Council of the PNM leadership election, Denise Tsoiafatt Angus, who endorsed Davidson Celestine in the second round of the 2020 Tobago Council of the People's National Movement leadership election, filed to run in as an independent candidate in the electoral district of Scarborough/ Calder Hall on January 4, after not being chosen to represent the party for the seat of Scarborough/ Calder Hall, despite being the choice of three out of five PNM party groups. Other candidates include defeated 2020 general election candidates for the constituency of Tobago West, UTP political leader Ricardo Phillip, CARM political leader Nickocy Phillips and journalist Anthony Hector.
Autonomy, corruption, specifically with respect to an incomplete Main Ridge Forest zip line project and the leadership role of controversial PDP political leader and Public Services Association President Watson Duke and his treatment towards women were persistently covered in the media in the lead up to the election. PDP deputy political leader Farley Chavez Augustine said that a 2016 Auditor General management letter on the Main Ridge Forest zipline project revealed that only rope was discovered when the department searched for the $2.5 million material and equipment spent by the Assembly, on the zipline while Davidson Celestine was Tourism and Transport Secretary. The PNM-led Assembly and Prime Minister Rowley has denied any truth to the corruption allegations, stating that although the PNM is not perfect, the party is not corrupt. The PNM has made allegations that the PDP intends to separate Tobago from Trinidad and has been accused of bringing racism into the campaign by alleging that the PDP is a proxy for the United National Congress (UNC), linking both the UNC and PDP to Trumpism and comparing PDP political leader Watson Duke former United States president Donald Trump.
| Party | Party | Slogan | Song | Manifesto |
| | PNM | "Building Tobago Together" | Yolanda Job - Building Tobago Together | PNM Tobago Council THA Manifesto 2021-2025 |
| | PDP | "Let's Transform Tobago" | WE BLACK and WE PROUD ✊🏿✊🏿✊🏿 | |

## Marginal seats

The following lists identify and rank seats by the margin by which the party's candidate finished behind the winning candidate in the 2017 election.
For information purposes only, seats that have changed hands through subsequent byelections have been noted. Seats whose members have changed party allegiance are ignored.
    = appears in two lists
Marginal seats by party (with winning parties and margins from the 2017 Tobago House of Assembly election) :
| PNM | PNM | PNM | PNM | PDP | PDP | PDP |
| Marginal ||||||||
| 1 | | Parlatuvier/ L’Anse Fourmi/Speyside | 7.91% | 1 | Goodwood/Belle Garden West | 0.23% |
| 2 | | Belle Garden East/Roxborough/Delaford | 13.80% | 2 | Providence/ Mason Hall/Moriah | 14.11% |
| Safe | Safe | Safe | Safe | 3 | Plymouth/Golden Lane | 26.62% |
| | | | | 4 | Canaan/Bon Accord | 33.09% |
| | | | | 5 | Scarborough/ Calder Hall | 33.69% |
| | | | | 6 | Lambeau/Signal Hill | 38.20% |
| | | | | 7 | Black Rock/Whim/Spring Garden | 38.33% |
| | | | | 8 | Bacolet/Mount. St. George | 41.01% |
| | | | | 9 | Bethel/Mt. Irvine | 42.01% |
| | | | | 10 | Buccoo/Mount Pleasant | 51.57% |
| Safe ||||
| TF ||||
| | | | | 1 | Bethel/Mt. Irvine | 23.78% |
| Safe ||||
| Source: Tobago House of Assembly Elections, 2017 – Final Result ||||||||

## Assembly members not standing for re-election

| Retiring incumbent | Retiring incumbent | Retiring incumbent | Electoral District | Term in office | Date announced |
| | Jomo Pitt | Tobago Council of the People's National Movement | Lambeau/Signal Hill | 2013–2021 | 26 June 2020 |

## Candidates by district

* Names in boldface type represent party leaders.
* † represents that the incumbent did not run again.
* ‡ = Ran for re-election in different district
* § represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination.
* ₰ represents that the incumbent ran in another district and lost the nomination
* ‡ represents that the incumbent ran in a different district.
| Electoral District | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Candidates | Incumbent |
| Electoral District | Tobago Council of the People's National Movement | Tobago Council of the People's National Movement | Progressive Democratic Patriots | Progressive Democratic Patriots | Other | Other | Incumbent | Incumbent |
| Bacolet/Mount. St. George | | Joel Jack 1,169 | | Megan Morrison 780 | | | Joel Jack |
| Belle Garden East/Roxborough/Delaford | | Neil Beckles 1,014 | | Watson Duke 1,417 | | | Watson Duke |
| Bethel/Mt. Irvine | | Shomari Hector 1,028 | | Terance Baynes 1,045 | | | Shomari Hector |
| Black Rock/Whim/Spring Garden | | Kelvon Morris 1,328 | | Abby Taylor 820 | | Anthony Hector (Ind.) 12 | † Kelvin Charles |
| Buccoo/Mount Pleasant | | Ancil Dennis 1,209 | | Jamie Baird 744 | | Ricardo Phillip (UTP) 9 Nickocy Phillips (CARM) 9 | Ancil Dennis |
| Canaan/Bon Accord | | Clarence Jacob 1,041 | | Joel Sampson 984 | | | Clarence Jacob |
| Goodwood/Belle Garden West | | Boxil Bailey 1,146 | | Faith Yisrael 1,405 | | | § Hayden Spencer |
| Lambeau/Signal Hill | | Tracy Davidson-Celestine 1,256 | | Wayne Clarke 1,040 | | | † Jomo Pitt |
| Parlatuvier/ L’Anse Fourmi/Speyside | | Rory Dillon 1,047 | | Farley Chavez Augustine 1,367 | | | Farley Chavez Augustine |
| Plymouth/Golden Lane | | Melissa James Guy 1,010 | | Zorisha Hackette 1,212 | | | § Marisha Osmond |
| Providence/ Mason Hall/Moriah | | Kwesi Des Vignes 1,101 | | Ian Pollard 1,185 | | | § Sheldon Cunningham |
| Scarborough/ Calder Hall | | Marslyn Melville-Jack 939 | | Trevor James 799 | | Denise Tsoiafatt Angus (Ind.) 269 | Marslyn Melville-Jack |

## Opinion polls
### Graphical summary

The North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) commissioned an opinion poll for the election sampling the electorate's opinion.

### Seat projection

| Date | Pollster | Sample size | PNM | PDP | Other | Legislative majority |
| 25 January 2021 | 2021 election | – | 6 | 6 | | 0 |
| 23 January 2021 | Trinidad and Tobago Guardian/NACTA poll | – | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 January 2021 | Trinidad and Tobago Guardian/NACTA poll | – | 9 (+2) | 1 (+2) | 0 | 6 (+4) |
| 23 January 2017 | 2017 election | – | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 |

### Individual poll

| Date | Pollster | Sample size | PNM | PDP | Other | Lead |
| 25 January 2021 | 2021 election | – | 50.4 | 48.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 23 January 2021 | Trinidad and Tobago Guardian/NACTA poll | – | 52 | 44 | – | 8 |
| 23 January 2017 | 2017 election | – | 54.7 | 31.0 | 14.06 | 23.7 |

### Approval ratings

The tables below list the public approval ratings of the leaders and leading candidates of the main political parties in Tobago.

#### Tracy Davidson-Celestine

| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Tracy Davidson-Celestine (PNM) | Tracy Davidson-Celestine (PNM) | Tracy Davidson-Celestine (PNM) | Tracy Davidson-Celestine (PNM) |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Y | N | ? | Net |
| Trinidad and Tobago Guardian/NACTA poll | 23 January 2021 | – | 52 | 27 | 21 | +25 |

#### Farley Chavez Augustine

| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Farley Chavez Augustine (PDP) | Farley Chavez Augustine (PDP) | Farley Chavez Augustine (PDP) | Farley Chavez Augustine (PDP) |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Y | N | ? | Net |
| Trinidad and Tobago Guardian/NACTA poll | 23 January 2021 | – | 43 | 39 | 18 | +4 |

#### Watson Duke

| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Watson Duke (PDP) | Watson Duke (PDP) | Watson Duke (PDP) | Watson Duke (PDP) |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Y | N | ? | Net |
| Trinidad and Tobago Guardian/NACTA poll | 23 January 2021 | – | ? | ? | ? | +2 |

## Results

| | Tobago Council of the People's National Movement | 13,288 | 50.36 | 6 | –4 |
| | Progressive Democratic Patriots | 12,798 | 48.50 | 6 | +4 |
| | Unity of the People | 9 | 0.03 | 0 | New |
| | Class Action Reform Movement | 9 | 0.03 | 0 | New |
| | Independents | 281 | 1.06 | 0 | New |
| Total | Total | 26,385 | 100.00 | 12 | 0 |
| Valid votes | Valid votes | 26,385 | 99.68 | | |
| Invalid/blank votes | Invalid/blank votes | 85 | 0.32 | | |
| Total votes | Total votes | 26,470 | 100.00 | | |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | 51,062 | 51.84 | | |
| Source: EBCTT ||||||

### By electoral district

| Electoral District | Previous control | Result |
| Bacolet/Mount. St. George | PNM | PNM |
| Belle Garden East/Roxborough/Delaford | PDP | PDP |
| Bethel/Mt. Irvine | PNM | PDP |
| Black Rock/Whim/Spring Garden | PNM | PNM |
| Buccoo/Mount Pleasant | PNM | PNM |
| Canaan/Bon Accord | PNM | PNM |
| Goodwood/Belle Garden West | PNM | PDP |
| Lambeau/Signal Hill | PNM | PNM |
| Parlatuvier/ L’Anse Fourmi/Speyside | PDP | PDP |
| Plymouth/Golden Lane | PNM | PDP |
| Providence/ Mason Hall/Moriah | PNM | PDP |
| Scarborough/ Calder Hall | PNM | PNM |
| Source: EBC ||||||

## Consequences

Trinidad and Tobago's parliament voted on 20 February in favour of a law increasing the number of seats in the Tobago's regional assembly to an uneven 15, which is expected to be followed by early election once new constituencies are drawn, in order to avoid potential seat ties in the future. On September 15, the Trinidad and Tobago House of Representatives passed the EBC (Local Government and Tobago House of Assembly) (Tobago) Order by a margin of 21-18, after which it was passed in the Senate before being signed into law by the President. The bill added three new seats: Lambeau/Lowlands, Darryl Spring/Whim, and Mt St George/Goodwood. All but two of the original districts were also modified slightly under the bill. The December 2021 Tobago House of Assembly election were thus called for 6 December 2021.