# 2019 Madeiran regional election

Regional elections were held on 22 September 2019 to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira in Portugal. All 47 members of the Assembly were up for election.
The Social Democratic Party continued their 43-year streak of being the largest party in the Madeiran legislature, but failed to hold on to their absolute majority, and would require a coalition for the first time to remain in power. The party won 39 percent of the votes, a decrease of 5 percentage points, and lost 3 members of the regional party. In the electoral map, the PSD lost the two biggest cities in Madeira, Funchal and Santa Cruz to the PS, although by less than 2 percent of the vote. Overall, the PSD still won the majority of municipalities, obtaining victory in 7 of the 11 in Madeira.
The Socialist Party surged in these elections, polling just two seats and 3.6 points behind the PSD. It was the best showing of the PS in a regional election in Madeira going back to the first regional elections in 1976, two years after the fall of the dictatorship. The party won 4 of the 11 municipalities in Madeira. The People's Party lost a lot of votes and seats in these elections, winning just 3 seats and 5.8 percent of the vote. Together for the People (JPP) also suffered a big setback by losing 2 members and almost 5 percent of the votes. It even failed to obtain second place in their traditional bastion of Santa Cruz, falling behind the PS and PSD. The Unitary Democratic Coalition lost 1 of their 2 seats, and lost 3.7 percent of votes compared to 2015. The Left Bloc was wiped from the regional Assembly completely and only won 1.7 percent of the votes. These elections were fought mainly between the PSD and PS, and many left-wing voters opted to vote tactically for the PS to prevent another PSD victory, but by doing so, they hurt the chances of smaller left-wing parties and alliances such as the Left Bloc and CDU.
The turnout in these elections increased compared to the previous one for the first time in over a decade, with 55.5 percent of voters casting a ballot, compared with the record-low 49.6 percent in the 2015 elections.
Following the elections, PSD and CDS-PP formed a coalition government with a parliamentary majority, headed by Miguel Albuquerque.

## Background
### Leadership changes and challenges
#### Socialist Party

After the party's dismal result in the 2015 reginal election, just 11 percent of the votes, the then PS leader, Victor Freitas resigned and a leadership ballot was called. Carlos Pereira was the sole candidate for the leadership and was elected with 70% of the votes. However, Pereira's leadership divided the party, as he spent much more time in the Assembly of the Republic, in Lisbon, rather than in Madeira. A leadership ballot was called for 19 January 2018 and two candidates were on the ballot: Incumbent leader Carlos Pereira and Porto Moniz mayor, Emanuel Câmara. Câmara defeated Pereira by a 57 to 43 percent margin. The results were the following:
Ballot: 19 January 2018 :
| Candidate | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Emanuel Câmara | 877 | 56.8 |
| | Carlos Pereira | 668 | 43.2 |
| Turnout | Turnout | 1,545 | 79.15 |
| Source: ||||
Despite being elected leader, Emanuel Câmara announced that he would not be the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government and that he would pick Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo as the party's lead candidate.

## Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.

## Parties
### Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader | 2015 result | 2015 result |
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader | % | Seats |
| | PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata | Liberal conservatism | Miguel Albuquerque | 44.4% | 24 / 47 |
| | CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular | Conservatism | Rui Barreto | 13.1% | 7 / 47 |
| | PS | Socialist Party Partido Socialista | Social democracy | Emanuel Câmara Paulo Cafôfo | 11.4% | 5 / 47 |
| | PTP | Portuguese Labour Party Partido Trabalhista Português | Social democracy | Quintino Costa | 11.4% | 1 / 47 |
| | JPP | Together for the People Juntos pelo Povo | Centrism | Élvio Sousa | 10.3% | 5 / 47 |
| | PCP | Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português | Communism | Edgar Silva | 5.5% | 2 / 47 |
| | B.E. | Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda | Democratic socialism | Paulino Ascenção | 3.8% | 2 / 47 |
| | Ind. | Independent Independente | Gil Canha (elected for the now extinct PND) | Gil Canha (elected for the now extinct PND) | Gil Canha (elected for the now extinct PND) | 1 / 47 |

### Parties running in the election

17 parties were on the ballot for the 2019 Madeira regional election. The parties that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot)
* Democratic Republican Party (PDR), Filipe Rebelo
* Enough (CH), Miguel Teixeira
* National Renovator Party (PNR), Álvaro Araújo
* Left Bloc (BE), Paulino Ascenção
* Socialist Party (PS), Paulo Cafôfo
* People-Animals-Nature (PAN), João Henrique de Freitas
* Alliance (A), Joaquim Sousa
* Earth Party (MPT), Valter Rodrigues
* Portuguese Workers' Communist Party (PCTP/MRPP), Fernanda Calaça
* Social Democratic Party (PSD), Miguel Albuquerque
* Liberal Initiative (IL), Nuno Morna
* Portuguese Labour Party (PTP), Raquel Coelho
* United Party of Retirees and Pensioners (PURP), Rafael Macedo
* CDS – People's Party (CDS-PP), Rui Barreto
* Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
* Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa
* React, Include, Recycle (RIR), Roberto Vieira

## Campaign period
### Party slogans

| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation |
| PSD | « Cumprir no rumo certo » | "Delivering on the right track" |
| CDS–PP | « Este é o momento » | "This is the moment" |
| PS | « Coragem para mudar » | "Courage to change" |
| JPP | « Dar voz aos Madeirenses » | "Giving voice to Madeirans" |
| BE | « A Madeira para todos » | "Madeira for all" |
| CDU | « CDU, o voto que conta » | "CDU, the vote that counts" |

### Candidates' debates

2019 Madeiran regional election debates :
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee | I Invitee  P Present  A Absent invitee N Non-invitee |
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | PSD Albuquerque | PS Cafôfo | CDS–PP Barreto | BE Ascenção | CDU Silva | JPP Sousa | Refs |
| 19 Sep | RTP Madeira, RTP3 | Gil Rosa | P | P | P | P | P | P | |

## Opinion polls
### Polling

Exit poll
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| 2019 regional election | 22 Sep 2019 | — | 55.5% | 39.4 21 | 5.8 3 | 35.8 19 | 5.5 3 | 1.8 1 | 1.7 0 | 1.0 0 | 1.5 0 | 0.4 0 | 0.5 0 | 6.6 0 | 3.6 |
| UCP-CESOP | 22 Sep 2019 | 6,000 | ? | 37–41 19/23 | 5–7 2/3 | 34–38 17/21 | 3–5 1/2 | 1–3 0/1 | 1–3 0/1 | - | 1–2 0/1 | - | - | - | 3 |
| Eurosondagem | 15–17 Sep 2019 | 1,525 | ? | 36.0 19 | 8.0 4 | 33.6 17/18 | 2.5 1 | 4.5 2 | 4.0 2 | 0.7 0 | ? 0/1 | - | ? 0/1 | 10.7 0/1 | 2.4 |
| Intercampus | 2–16 Sep 2019 | 1,503 | ? | 39.0 21 | 9.3 5 | 33.1 17 | 3.4 1 | 3.9 2 | 2.2 1 | - | - | - | - | 9.1 0 | 5.9 |
| UCP-CESOP | 14–15 Sep 2019 | 1,375 | ? | 38 19/23 | 5 2/3 | 29 14/18 | 4 2/3 | 3 1/2 | 5 2/3 | - | 2 1 | 1.5 0/1 | 1.5 0/1 | 11 0 | 9 |
| Eurosondagem | 21–24 Jul 2019 | 1,519 | ? | 33.3 18/19 | 7.1 3/4 | 31.9 17/18 | 4.2 2 | 4.0 2 | 6.9 3/4 | 0.5 0 | - | - | - | 12.0 0/1 | 1.4 |
| 2019 EP elections | 26 May 2019 | — | 38.5 | 37.2 (22) | 8.1 (4) | 25.8 (15) | — | 3.0 (1) | 5.3 (3) | 1.3 (0) | 3.7 (2) | — | 1.6 (0) | 14.0 (0) | 11.4 |
| CDS-PP internal | 8 Feb 2019 | ? | ? | 36.0 19/20 | 8.0 4/5 | 33.0 18/19 | 4.0 2 | 3.0 1 | 3.0 1 | 2.0 0/1 | - | - | - | 11.0 0 | 3.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 14–17 Jan 2019 | 1,510 | ? | 34.7 18/19 | 8.0 4 | 36.9 19/20 | 4.8 2 | 3.6 1/2 | 4.0 2 | 0.9 0 | - | - | - | 7.1 0 | 2.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 26–28 Nov 2018 | 748 | ? | 34.2 18 | 10.6 5 | 33.9 18 | 6.5 3 | 3.4 1 | 4.0 2 | 1.6 0 | - | - | - | 5.8 0 | 0.3 |
| Intercampus | 21–26 Nov 2018 | 400 | ? | ? 19 | ? 2 | ? 23 | ? 2 | ? 1 | ? 0 | ? 0 | ? 0 | ? 0 | ? 0 | ? 0 | ? |
| Eurosondagem | 19–24 Jul 2018 | 1,018 | ? | 36.3 18/19 | 7.1 3/4 | 35.7 18/19 | 6.0 3 | 4.8 2 | 3.9 2 | 1.2 0 | - | - | | 5.0 0 | 0.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–7 Feb 2018 | 1,018 | ? | 38.5 20/21 | 5.9 3 | 33.2 17/18 | 6.8 3 | 3.1 1 | 4.9 2 | 1.4 0 | - | - | | 6.2 0 | 5.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 22–24 Oct 2017 | 1,017 | ? | 36.3 19 | 6.0 3 | 33.6 17 | 6.5 3 | 4.5 2 | 4.1 2 | 2.1 1 | - | - | | 6.9 0 | 2.7 |
| 2017 local elections | 1 Oct 2017 | — | 54.2 | 33.6 (19) | 9.1 (5) | 29.1 (16) | 10.2 (5) | 2.4 (1) | 0.7 (0) | 1.7 (1) | — | 0.6 (0) | | 12.6 (0) | 4.5 |
| Eurosondagem | 7–9 Jun 2017 | 1,010 | ? | 40.4 21/22 | 5.4 2/3 | 30.0 15/16 | 4.7 2 | 4.9 2 | 5.9 2 | 1.9 2 | - | - | | 6.8 0 | 10.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 14–16 Mar 2017 | 1,017 | ? | 38.0 20/21 | 8.6 4 | 27.2 14/15 | 4.1 2 | 5.0 2/3 | 6.93 | 1.3 – | - | - | | 8.90 | 10.8 |
| 2015 legislative election | 4 Oct 2015 | — | 48.9 | 37.8 (21) | 6.0 (3) | 20.9 (11) | 6.9 (3) | 3.6 (2) | 10.7 (6) | 1.4 (0) | 1.8 (1) | 1.4 (0) | | 13.5 (0) | 16.9 |
| 2015 regional election | 29 Mar 2015 | — | 49.6 | 44.4 24 | 13.7 7 | 11.4 5 | 10.3 5 | 5.5 2 | 3.8 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | 10.9 1 | 30.7 |

## Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.
| Turnout | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time |
| Turnout | 12:00 | 12:00 | 12:00 | 16:00 | 16:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | 19:00 | 19:00 |
| Turnout | 2015 | 2019 | ± | 2015 | 2019 | ± | 2015 | 2019 | ± |
| Total | 17.21% | 20.97% | 3.76 pp | 37.48% | 40.79% | 3.31 pp | 49.58% | 55.50% | 5.92 pp |
| Sources ||||||||||

## Results

On election night, the centre-right PSD and national-conservative CDS said they were willing to form a coalition government.
Summary of the 22 September 2019 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results :
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs %/ votes % |
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | 2015 | 2019 | ± | % | ± | MPs %/ votes % |
| | Social Democratic | 56,449 | 39.42 | 4.9 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 44.68 | 6.4 | 1.13 |
| | Socialist | 51,207 | 35.76 | | 5 | 19 | 14 | 40.43 | 29.8 | 1.13 |
| | People's | 8,246 | 5.76 | 8.0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6.38 | 8.5 | 1.11 |
| | Together for the People | 7,830 | 5.47 | 4.8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6.38 | 4.3 | 1.17 |
| | Unitary Democratic Coalition | 2,577 | 1.80 | 3.7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.13 | 2.1 | 1.18 |
| | Left Bloc | 2,489 | 1.74 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| | People-Animals-Nature | 2,095 | 1.46 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | United Party of Retirees and Pensioners | 1,766 | 1.23 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | React, Include, Recycle | 1,749 | 1.22 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | Labour | 1,426 | 1.00 | | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| | Alliance | 766 | 0.53 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | Liberal Initiative | 762 | 0.53 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | CHEGA | 619 | 0.43 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | Democratic Republican | 603 | 0.42 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | Portuguese Workers' Communist | 601 | 0.42 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Earth | 507 | 0.35 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | National Renovator | 274 | 0.19 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total valid | Total valid | 139,966 | 97.74 | 2.1 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 100.00 | 0.0 | — |
| Blank ballots | Blank ballots | 700 | 0.49 | 0.5 | | | | | | |
| Invalid ballots | Invalid ballots | 2,534 | 1.77 | 1.6 | | | | | | |
| Total | Total | 143,200 | 100.00 | | | | | | | |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | 258,005 | 55.50 | 5.8 | | | | | | |
| Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições |||||||||||
Vote share
PSD
39.42%
PS
35.76%
CDS-PP
5.76%
JPP
5.47%
CDU
1.80%
BE
1.74%
PAN
1.46%
PURP
1.23%
RIR
1.22%
PTP
1.00%
Alliance
0.53%
IL
0.53%
Others
1.81%
Blank/Invalid
2.26% :
Parliamentary seats
PSD
44.68%
PS
40.43%
CDS-PP
6.38%
JPP
6.38%
CDU
2.13% :

### Maps

* Most voted political force by parish.

## Aftermath
### Government approval

For the first time in democracy, the PSD failed to win an outright majority of seats and was forced to negotiate with other parties. Shortly after, the party reached a deal with CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) to form a coalition government. On 13 November 2019, the regional parliament approved Albuquerque's second led government, the first coalition government in Madeira:
2019 Motion of confidence Miguel Albuquerque (PSD) :
| Ballot → | Ballot → | 13 November 2019 |
| Required majority → | Required majority → | Simple Y |
| | Yes • PSD (21) • CDS–PP (3) | 24 / 47 |
| | No • PS (19) • JPP (3) • PCP (1) | 23 / 47 |
| | Abstentions | 0 / 47 |
| | Absentees | 0 / 47 |
| Sources ||||