# 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election

A by-election was held in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Northern Tablelands on 22 June 2024, following the resignation of National Party MP Adam Marshall.

## Background

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting Nationals MP Adam Marshall, who had held the seat since the 2013.
Northern Tablelands is one of the most conservative seats in NSW, and has been a heartland for the National Party for over a century. While Labor traditionally does poorly in rural New South Wales (particularly rural northeastern New South Wales), Northern Tablelands is particularly hostile territory for Labor even by this region's standards. Northern Tablelands mostly overlaps with the equally conservative federal seat of New England, which is also a longstanding National stronghold.
Labor usually runs dead in the seat, and therefore did not contest the by-election.
Marshall won 83.8% of the two-party-preferred vote at the 2023 state election, which is equal to a 33.8% margin on the Mackerras pendulum, emphasising that Northern Tablelands can be classified as a very safe seat, and the safest seat for any party in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly. Additionally, excluding by-election results or redistributions, Northern Tablelands is the seventh-safest seat for any party in any Australian state parliament, and the safest outside Western Australia.

### Previous results

2023 New South Wales state election: Northern Tablelands :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | National | Adam Marshall | 35,575 | 71.6 | −1.8 |
| | Labor | Yvonne Langenberg | 5,045 | 10.2 | −0.8 |
| | Greens | Elizabeth O'Hara | 2,369 | 4.8 | −0.8 |
| | Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Michael Hay | 2,239 | 4.5 | −5.1 |
| | Legalise Cannabis | Peter O'Loghlin | 1,148 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| | Independent | Billy Wood | 980 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Margaret Hammond | 783 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| | Sustainable Australia | Alan Crowe | 595 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| | Independent | Natasha Ledger | 496 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| | Public Education | Gary Hampton | 425 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Total formal votes | Total formal votes | Total formal votes | 49,655 | 98.0 | −0.1 |
| Informal votes | Informal votes | Informal votes | 1,039 | 2.0 | +0.1 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 50,694 | 87.6 | −3.1 |
| Two-party-preferred result ||||||
| | National | Adam Marshall | 37,654 | 83.8 | +0.7 |
| | Labor | Yvonne Langenberg | 7,255 | 16.2 | −0.7 |
| | National hold | National hold | Swing | +0.7 | |

## Candidates

Candidates are listed in ballot order:
| Party | Candidate | Background |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | Ben Smith | |
| Greens | Dorothy Robinson | Armidale Regional Councillor |
| Independent | Natasha Ledger | 2023 candidate |
| Independent | Duncan Fischer | Businessman |
| National | Brendan Moylan | Solicitor |

## Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:
* 31 May 2024 – Issue of writ, Close of rolls
* 6 June 2024 – Close of nominations
* 7 June 2024 – Declaration of nominations
* 15 June 2024 – Commencement of early voting
* 17 June 2024 – Applications for postal voting closes
* 22 June 2024 – Polling day
* 12 July 2024 – Return of writ

## Results

2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | National | Brendan Moylan | 31,203 | 67.9 | −3.7 |
| | Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Ben Smith | 5,229 | 11.4 | +6.9 |
| | Greens | Dorothy Robinson | 4,211 | 9.2 | +4.4 |
| | Independent | Duncan Fischer | 3,292 | 7.2 | +7.2 |
| | Independent | Natasha Ledger | 1,999 | 4.4 | +3.4 |
| Total formal votes | Total formal votes | Total formal votes | 45,934 | 97.3 | −0.6 |
| Informal votes | Informal votes | Informal votes | 1,271 | 2.7 | +0.6 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 47,205 | 80.2 | −7.4 |
| Two-candidate-preferred result ||||||
| | National | Brendan Moylan | 33,611 | 81.9 | −1.9 |
| | Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Ben Smith | 7,411 | 18.1 | +18.1 |
| | National hold | National hold | Swing | −1.9 | |