# 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election

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2020 :
vte :
The 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to one-third of the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper was re-elected to a second term, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Dan Forest. Cooper became the first North Carolina governor to win re-election since Mike Easley in 2004. He also outperformed other Democrats on the ballot and was the only Democrat to win a gubernatorial race in a state carried by Donald Trump in 2020. With a margin of 4.51%, this election was the second closest of the 2020 gubernatorial election cycle after Puerto Rico and the closest in a U.S. state.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Roy Cooper, incumbent governor

#### Eliminated in primary

* Ernest T. Reeves, retired U.S. Army captain and perennial candidate

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper | Ernest Reeves | Undecided |
| High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 269 (LV) | – | 74% | 13% | 13% |
| High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 468 (RV) | – | 68% | 14% | 18% |
| SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 73% | 9% | 18% |
| High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | 80% | 8% | 12% |
| High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 400 (RV) | – | 69% | 10% | 21% |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Roy Cooper (incumbent) | 1,128,829 | 87.19% |
| | Democratic | Ernest T. Reeves | 165,804 | 12.81% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,294,633 | 100.00% |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Dan Forest, lieutenant governor of North Carolina

#### Eliminated in primary

* Holly Grange, state representative

#### Declined

* Pat McCrory, former governor of North Carolina
* Mark Meadows, former U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district, White House Chief of Staff

### Endorsements

Executive branch officials
* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. Representatives
* Mark Meadows, former (NC-11) and former White House Chief of Staff
Organizations
* Susan B. Anthony List

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dan Forest | Holly Grange | Pat McCrory | Undecided |
| High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 246 (LV) | – | 74% | 13% | – | 13% |
| High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 443 (RV) | – | 64% | 12% | – | 24% |
| SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 60% | 8% | – | 32% |
| High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | 67% | 8% | – | 25% |
| High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 400 (RV) | – | 54% | 10% | – | 36% |
| | December 19, 2019 | McCrory announces he will not run | McCrory announces he will not run | McCrory announces he will not run | McCrory announces he will not run | McCrory announces he will not run | McCrory announces he will not run |
| Harper Polling (R) | December 2–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 31% | 3% | 42% | 25% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Dan Forest | 698,077 | 88.95% |
| | Republican | Holly Grange | 86,714 | 11.05% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 784,791 | 100.00% |

## Other candidates
### Libertarian Party
#### Nominee

* Steven J. DiFiore, candidate for Charlotte City Council in 2017, factory lighting representative

### Constitution Party
#### Nominee

* Al Pisano, chairman of the Constitution Party of North Carolina

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Likely D | October 23, 2020 |
| Inside Elections | Lean D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Politico | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos | Likely D | October 28, 2020 |
| RCP | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
| 270towin | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |

### Endorsements

U.S. presidents
* Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States
State and local officials
* Pete Buttigieg, former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)
Organizations
* Equality NC
Newspapers
* The Charlotte Observer
* Indy Week
U.S. presidents
* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. executive branch officials
* Mark Meadows, White House Chief of Staff for Donald Trump and former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district
Organizations
* Susan B. Anthony List

### Debates

A debate between Cooper and Forest occurred 7:00 pm EDT, October 14, 2020.
| Dates | Location | Cooper | Forest | Link |
| October 14, 2020 | Raleigh, North Carolina | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Dan Forest (R) | Other / Undecided |
| Swayable | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 55% | 43% | 2% |
| Frederick Polls (D) | October 30–31, 2020 | 676 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| Emerson College | October 29–31, 2020 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 45% | 1% |
| CNN/SSRS | October 23–30, 2020 | 901 (LV) | ± 4% | 52% | 42% | 5% |
| East Carolina University | October 27–28, 2020 | 1,103 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 54% | 43% | 2% |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | October 27–28, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Marist College/NBC | October 25–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 59% | 40% | 1% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 26–27, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R) | October 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 43% | – |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| RMG Research | October 24–26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Swayable | October 23–26, 2020 | 386 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | October 23–26, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 42% | 6% |
| YouGov/UMass Amherst | October 20–26, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 54% | 42% | 3% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | October 22–25, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | 5% |
| Meredith College | October 16–19, 2020 | 732 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 34% | 16% |
| East Carolina University | October 15–18, 2020 | 1,155 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 53% | 44% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 13–14, 2020 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,211 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 46% | 1% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 9–13, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| Monmouth University | October 8–11, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Monmouth University | October 8–11, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 44% | 3% |
| Monmouth University | October 8–11, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| SurveyUSA | October 8–11, 2020 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 39% | 10% |
| RMG Research | October 7–11, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 4–5, 2020 | 911 (V) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| East Carolina University | October 2–4, 2020 | 1,232 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| ALG Research (D) | September 22–28, 2020 | 822 (V) | – | 53% | 43% | – |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell | September 18–25, 2020 | 921 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 41% | 4% |
| Meredith College | September 18–22, 2020 | 705 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | September 17–20, 2020 | 612 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 46% | 39% | 14% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 42% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–15, 2020 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
| Suffolk University | September 10–14, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | September 10–13, 2020 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 49% | 42% | 10% |
| CNN/SSRS | September 9–13, 2020 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 44% | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS | September 9–13, 2020 | 893 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report | August 29 – September 13, 2020 | 1,116 (RV) | – | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 54% | 35% | 11% |
| Monmouth University | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 40% | 8% |
| Monmouth University | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Monmouth University | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| East Carolina University | August 29–30, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 16–19, 2020 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
| East Carolina University | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,255 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 38% | 11% |
| Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 44% | 7% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | July 23–24, 2020 | 884 (V) | ± 3.4% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 22–24, 2020 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 19–23, 2020 | 919 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| Marist College/NBC News | July 14–22, 2020 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 13–15, 2020 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| East Carolina University | June 22–25, 2020 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2020 | 1,157 (V) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 41% | 10% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | June 8–18, 2020 | 653 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing (R) | June 17, 2020 | 631 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–17, 2020 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 31% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 2–3, 2020 | 913 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| Neighbourhood Research & Media | May 12–21, 2020 | 391 (LV) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R) | May 9–13, 2020 | 500 (RV) | – | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| East Carolina University | May 7–9, 2020 | 1,111 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 2–4, 2020 | 1,362 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| Meredith College | April 27–28, 2020 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 32% | 16% |
| SurveyUSA | April 23–26, 2020 | 580 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 57% | 30% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 20–21, 2020 | 1,275 (V) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | April 13–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 14–15, 2020 | 1,318 (V) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 36% | 13% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 33% | 17% |
| East Carolina University | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | October 15–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| Meredith College | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 33% | 21% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 1–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Harper Polling (R) | June 8–10, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| Emerson College | May 31 – June 3, 2019 | 932 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 38% | 10% |
| Spry Strategies (R) | May 25 – June 1, 2019 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 18% |
with Holly Grange
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Holly Grange (R) | Other / Undecided |
| East Carolina University | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 33% | 18% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | October 15–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 1–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 30% | 22% |
with Phil Berger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Phil Berger (R) | Other / Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 34% | 18% |
with Pat McCrory
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Pat McCrory (R) | Other / Undecided |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | October 15–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 18% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 1–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 38% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
with Tim Moore
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Tim Moore (R) | Other / Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 32% | 22% |
with Thom Tillis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Thom Tillis (R) | Other / Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 37% | 17% |

### Results

2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Roy Cooper (incumbent) | 2,834,790 | 51.52% | +2.50% |
| | Republican | Dan Forest | 2,586,605 | 47.01% | −1.79% |
| | Libertarian | Steven J. DiFiore | 60,449 | 1.10% | −1.09% |
| | Constitution | Al Pisano | 20,934 | 0.38% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 5,502,778 | 100.00% | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 5,545,847 | 75.35% | |
| Registered electors | Registered electors | Registered electors | 7,359,798 | | |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |
* Republican — >15%
* Republican — +12.5−15%
* Republican — +10−12.5%
* Republican — +7.5−10%
* Republican — +5−7.5%
* Republican — +2.5−5%
* Republican — +0−2.5%
* Democratic — +0−2.5%
* Democratic — +2.5−5%
* Democratic — +5−7.5%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +10−12.5%

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Jackson (largest city: Cullowhee)

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Lenoir (largest city: Kinston)
* Martin (largest city: Williamston)

#### By congressional district

Despite winning a majority of the popular vote, Cooper only won 5 of 13 congressional districts.
| District | Forest | Cooper | Representative |
| 1st | 42.6% | 56.4% | G. K. Butterfield |
| 2nd | 31.4% | 67.0% | Deborah K. Ross |
| 3rd | 58.5% | 40.0% | Greg Murphy |
| 4th | 29.9% | 68.8% | David Price |
| 5th | 63.5% | 35.2% | Virginia Foxx |
| 6th | 34.2% | 64.2% | Kathy Manning |
| 7th | 54.5% | 44.0% | David Rouzer |
| 8th | 49.2% | 49.0% | Richard Hudson |
| 9th | 50.3% | 48.4% | Dan Bishop |
| 10th | 63.7% | 35.0% | Patrick McHenry |
| 11th | 52.2% | 46.3% | Madison Cawthorn |
| 12th | 27.0% | 71.0% | Alma Adams |
| 13th | 62.9% | 35.9% | Ted Budd |

## Analysis
### Voter demographics

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls. There were 4,557 total respondents.
2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election (CNN) :
| Demographic subgroup | Cooper | Forest | % of total vote |
| Ideology ||||
| Liberals | 94 | 5 | 20 |
| Moderates | 69 | 29 | 39 |
| Conservatives | 13 | 86 | 40 |
| Party ||||
| Democrats | 97 | 2 | 34 |
| Republicans | 8 | 92 | 37 |
| Independents | 54 | 52 | 30 |
| Age ||||
| 18–24 years old | 57 | 41 | 8 |
| 25–29 years old | 54 | 39 | 6 |
| 30–39 years old | 59 | 41 | 14 |
| 40–49 years old | 55 | 43 | 16 |
| 50–64 years old | 48 | 50 | 31 |
| 65 and older | 46 | 53 | 24 |
| Gender ||||
| Men | 47 | 51 | 44 |
| Women | 55 | 43 | 56 |
| Race/ethnicity ||||
| White | 36 | 63 | 65 |
| Black | 92 | 7 | 23 |
| Latino | 59 | 38 | 5 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Other | 56 | 39 | 5 |
| Gender by race ||||
| White men | 33 | 66 | 29 |
| White women | 39 | 60 | 36 |
| Black men | 92 | 8 | 9 |
| Black women | 93 | 6 | 14 |
| Latino men | 45 | 53 | 3 |
| Latino women | 75 | 22 | 3 |
| Other racial/ethnic groups | 54 | 42 | 7 |
| Education ||||
| Never attended college | 41 | 58 | 18 |
| Some college education | 45 | 53 | 27 |
| Associate degree | 50 | 46 | 18 |
| Bachelor's degree degree | 58 | 41 | 22 |
| Postgraduate | 68 | 31 | 14 |
| Education by race ||||
| White college graduated | 54 | 45 | 26 |
| White no college degree | 24 | 74 | 39 |
| Non-white college graduates | 82 | 17 | 11 |
| Non-white no college degree | 79 | 19 | 25 |
| Education by gender/race ||||
| White women with college degrees | 59 | 41 | 15 |
| White women without college degrees | 24 | 74 | 21 |
| White men with college degrees | 48 | 52 | 11 |
| White men without college degrees | 24 | 75 | 18 |
| Non-white | 80 | 18 | 35 |
| Income ||||
| Under $30K | 53 | 45 | 15 |
| $30K-$50k | 55 | 43 | 22 |
| $50k-$100k | 50 | 47 | 36 |
| $100k-$200k | 48 | 51 | 22 |
| $200k or more | 48 | 52 | 5 |
| Issue regarded as most important ||||
| Racial inequality | 94 | 4 | 21 |
| Health care policy | 65 | 32 | 12 |
| Economy | 20 | 78 | 35 |
| COVID-19 pandemic | 84 | 15 | 14 |
| Crime and safety | 14 | 83 | 12 |
| Region ||||
| East | 48 | 51 | 23 |
| Raleigh-Durham Triangle | 65 | 34 | 22 |
| Charlotte Area | 57 | 42 | 18 |
| Piedmont/Central | 48 | 50 | 20 |
| West | 38 | 60 | 17 |
| Area type ||||
| Urban | 71 | 28 | 33 |
| Suburban | 43 | 56 | 40 |
| Rural | 42 | 55 | 27 |