# 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election

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The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to choose the next governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent Attorney General Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. In the general election, Reeves defeated Hood by a margin of 5.08%, with Reeves significantly underperforming Donald Trump, who won the state by 17 points in 2016.

## Background

Situated in the Deep South as a socially conservative Bible Belt state, Mississippi is one of the most Republican states in the country. No Democrat has been elected to the governorship since Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. However, the state's Democratic Attorney General, Jim Hood, who had held his office since 2004 and had yet to lose a statewide election, put the Republicans' winning streak of four elections in a row to the test, as the race became unusually competitive. Reeves defeated Hood in the general election by a margin of 5.1%, making this the closest a Democrat had come to winning a Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. Hood pulled off the best performance by a Democrat since the 2003 Mississippi gubernatorial election, when fellow Democrat Ronnie Musgrove took 45.81% of the vote. Hood flipped the counties of Chickasaw, Lafayette, Madison, Panola, and Warren, which had all voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2016 United States presidential election.
Uniquely among the states, the Constitution of Mississippi establishes a sort of electoral college at the state level. For the election of governor. Article 5, Section 140 of the state constitution states that each state House district is assigned an electoral vote, and that a candidate running for governor must receive a majority of electoral votes (essentially, they must win a majority of state House districts) in addition to winning a majority of the popular vote in order to be elected governor. Article 5, Section 141 of the state constitution states that if no candidate wins both a popular and electoral vote majority, the state House of Representatives is assigned to decide the winner, choosing from the two highest popular vote winners. This provision came into play only one time in the state's history; Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove in the 1999 gubernatorial election garnered a plurality, but not a majority; the House selected Musgrove.
In the lead-up to the election, controversy emerged over these constitutional provisions establishing a state system of electoral votes, with a federal lawsuit claiming the provisions are racially biased. These provisions were put in place with the 1890 Mississippi Constitution, itself established by the segregationist Redeemers and overturning the Reconstruction-era 1868 Constitution, as part of Jim Crow Era policy to minimize the power of African Americans in politics. Because of this, as well as present gerrymandering that packs African Americans into a small number of districts, the plaintiffs claim the provisions should be struck down on the basis of racial bias.
On 3 November 2020, an amendment was passed removing the electoral college, with 79% of the vote.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Tate Reeves, lieutenant governor of Mississippi

#### Eliminated in runoff

* Bill Waller Jr., former chief justice of the Mississippi State Supreme Court and son of former Democratic Governor William "Bill" Waller. Sr (1972–1976)

#### Eliminated in primary

* Robert Foster, Mississippi state representative

#### Withdrawn

* Hal Marx, mayor of Petal (endorsed Tate Reeves)

#### Declined

* Thomas Duff, businessman
* Lynn Fitch, Mississippi state treasurer (running for Mississippi attorney general)
* Gerard Gibert, businessman and lottery board member
* Philip Gunn, speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives
* Trent Lott, former U.S. senator
* Chris McDaniel, Mississippi states senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2018 (endorsed Tate Reeves)
* Mike Randolph, presiding justice of the Mississippi State Supreme Court
* Andy Taggart, former chief of staff to Governor Kirk Fordice (running for Mississippi attorney general)

### Endorsements

U.S. Presidents
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
U.S. Representatives
* Steven Palazzo (MS-04)
State-wide officials
* Haley Barbour, former governor of Mississippi
* Sam Britton, public service commissioner (Southern District)
* Phil Bryant, governor of Mississippi
* Pete Ricketts, governor of Nebraska
State legislators
* Chris McDaniel, Mississippi State Senator
Mayors
* Fofo Gilich, Biloxi, Mississippi
* Hal Marx, Petal, Mississippi
* Dane Maxwell, Pascagoula, Mississippi
* Chipper McDermott, Pass Christian, Mississippi
* Rusty Quave, D'Iberville, Mississippi
* Mike Smith, Waveland, Mississippi
Organizations
* Americans for Prosperity Action
* Mississippi Manufacturers Association
* Mississippi Right to Life PAC
* NRA Political Victory Fund
Individuals
* Brett Favre, Super Bowl champion
* Jake Mangum, professional baseball outfielder
State legislators
* Robert Foster, former candidate for governor (endorsed in run-off election)
Individuals
* Dan Fordice, son of former Governor Kirk Fordice
* Billy Mounger, former Mississippi Republican Party chairman
* Billy Powell, former Mississippi Republican Party chairman
* Clarke Reed, former Mississippi Republican Party chairman
* Michael Retzer, former Mississippi Republican Party chairman

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert Foster | Tate Reeves | Bill Waller Jr. | Undecided |
| Mason-Dixon | July 24–27, 2019 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 13% | 41% | 31% | 15% |
| Impact Management Group | June 10–14, 2019 | 354 | ± 5.3% | 9% | 50% | 19% | 28% |
| Mason-Dixon | January 30 – February 1, 2019 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 9% | 62% | – | 29% |
Hypothetical polling :
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lynn Fitch | Tate Reeves | Undecided |
| JMC Analytics | February 15–17, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| Mason-Dixon | December 13–15, 2017 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 18% | 37% | 45% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Tate Reeves | 187,312 | 48.9 |
| | Republican | Bill Waller Jr. | 128,010 | 33.4 |
| | Republican | Robert Foster | 67,758 | 17.7 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 383,080 | 100.0 |

### Runoff

Republican primary runoff results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Tate Reeves | 179,623 | 54.1 |
| | Republican | Bill Waller Jr. | 152,201 | 45.9 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 331,824 | 100.0 |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Jim Hood, Mississippi attorney general

#### Eliminated in primary

* Michael Brown
* William Bond Compton Jr., candidate for governor of Mississippi in 2007 and 2011, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014, nominee for the Mississippi House of Representatives in the 83rd district in 2015
* Robert J. Ray
* Robert Shuler Smith, Hinds County district attorney
* Gregory Wash
* Velesha Williams, former director for the Metro Jackson Community Prevention Coalition and former U.S. Army officer
* Albert Wilson, businessman and community organizer

#### Withdrawn

* Phillip West, former state representative and former mayor of Natchez (endorsed Jim Hood)

#### Declined

* Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia

### Endorsements

U.S. Executive Branch officials
* Ray Mabus, 75th United States secretary of the Navy and former governor of Mississippi
Statewide officials State legislators
* Earle S. Banks, Mississippi state representative
* Chris Bell, Mississippi state representative
* David Blount, Mississippi state senator
* Jarvis Dortch, Mississippi state representative
* Sollie Norwood, Mississippi state senator

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Hood | Robert Shuler Smith | Undecided |
| Triumph Campaigns | January 29, 2018 | 2,145 | ± 1.8% | 36% | 34% | 30% |
Hypothetical polling :
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Hood | Chokwe Antar Lumumba | Undecided |
| Triumph Campaigns | January 29, 2018 | 2,145 | ± 1.8% | 49% | 27% | 23% |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Jim Hood | 208,634 | 69.0 |
| | Democratic | Michael Brown | 33,247 | 11.0 |
| | Democratic | Velesha Williams | 20,844 | 6.9 |
| | Democratic | Robert Shuler Smith | 20,395 | 6.7 |
| | Democratic | Robert Ray | 5,609 | 1.8 |
| | Democratic | William Bond Compton Jr. | 5,321 | 1.8 |
| | Democratic | Albert Wilson | 5,122 | 1.7 |
| | Democratic | Gregory Wash | 3,218 | 1.1 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 302,390 | 100.0 |

## Other candidates
### Constitution Party

Declared
* Bob Hickingbottom

### Independents

Declared
* David Singletary, U.S. Air Force veteran and former hotel owner

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | October 15, 2019 |
| Inside Elections | Lean R | November 8, 2019 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | November 8, 2019 |

### Debates

| Dates | Location | Hood | Reeves | Link |
| October 10, 2019 | University of Southern Mississippi Hattiesburg | Participant | Participant | |
| October 14, 2019 | WCBI Studios Columbus | Participant | Participant | |

### Endorsements

U.S. Executive Branch officials
* Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
Members of Congress
* Cindy Hyde-Smith, U.S. senator (R-MS)
* Trent Kelly, U.S. representative (R-MS)
* Roger Wicker, U.S. senator (R-MS)
Statewide officials
* Haley Barbour, former governor of Mississippi
* Phil Bryant, governor of Mississippi
* Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
* Pete Ricketts, governor of Nebraska
State legislators
* Robert Foster, Mississippi state representative
* Chris Johnson, Mississippi state representative
* Chris McDaniel, Mississippi state senator
* John A. Polk, Mississippi state senator
Mayors
* Fofo Gilich, Biloxi, Mississippi
* Hal Marx, Petal, Mississippi
* Dane Maxwell, Pascagoula, Mississippi
* Chipper McDermott, Pass Christian, Mississippi
* Rusty Quave, D'Iberville, Mississippi
* Mike Smith, Waveland, Mississippi
Organizations
* Americans for Prosperity Action
* Mississippi Manufacturers Association
* Mississippi Right to Life PAC
* NRA Political Victory Fund
Individuals
* Brett Favre, Super Bowl champion
* Jake Mangum, professional baseball outfielder
U.S. Executive Branch officials
* Ray Mabus, 75th United States secretary of the Navy and former governor of Mississippi
* Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States
Statewide officials
* John Bel Edwards, governor of Louisiana
State legislators
* Stacey Abrams, 2018 Democratic nominee for governor of Georgia, former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives
* Earle S. Banks, Mississippi state representative
* Chris Bell, Mississippi state representative
* David Blount, Mississippi state senator
* Jarvis Dortch, Mississippi state representative
* Sollie Norwood, Mississippi state senator
Mayors
* Jason Shelton, mayor of Tupelo
Organizations
* Democratic Governors Association
* Mississippi Association of Educators
Individuals
* Grey DeLisle, voice actress and activist

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Jim Hood (D) | David Singletary (I) | Bob Hickingbottom (C) | Undecided |
| NBC/Survey Monkey | October 8–22, 2019 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 3% |
| Targoz Market Research | October 13–20, 2019 | 384 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | – | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 17–19, 2019 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | 9% |
| Hickman Analytics | October 13–16, 2019 | 508 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | – | – | – |
| Hickman Analytics (D) | September 22–26, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Hickman Analytics (D) | August 11–15, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | – |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey | July 2–16, 2019 | 1,171 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | – | – | 6% |
| Impact Management Group | June 10–14, 2019 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 36% | 4% | – | 12% |
| Hickman Analytics (D) | May 5–9, 2019 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon | January 30 – February 1, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | – | – | 14% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | January 28–30, 2019 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 36% | – | – | 13% |
| Mason-Dixon | April 12–14, 2018 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | – | – | 17% |
| Chism Strategies/Millsaps College | December 15–19, 2017 | 578 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 38% | – | – | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon | December 13–15, 2017 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 43% | – | – | 20% |
with Tate Reeves, Jim Hood, and Bill Waller Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Jim Hood (D) | Bill Waller Jr. (I) | Undecided |
| Mason-Dixon | January 30 – February 1, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 40% | 9% | 13% |
with Bill Waller Jr. and Jim Hood
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Waller Jr. (R) | Jim Hood (D) | David Singletary (I) | Undecided |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey | July 2–16, 2019 | 1,171 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 53% | 41% | – | 6% |
| Impact Management Group | June 10–14, 2019 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 36% | 4% | 17% |

### Results

| Candidate | Candidate | Party | Popular vote | Popular vote | Electoral vote | Electoral vote |
| Candidate | Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Votes | % |
| | Tate Reeves | Republican Party | 459,396 | 51.91 | 73 | 59.84 |
| | Jim Hood | Democratic Party | 414,368 | 46.83 | 49 | 40.16 |
| | David Singletary | Independent | 8,522 | 0.96 | | |
| | Bob Hickingbottom | Constitution Party | 2,625 | 0.30 | | |
| Total | Total | Total | 884,911 | 100.00 | 122 | 100.00 |
| Source: Mississippi Secretary of State |||||||

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Adams (largest city: Natchez)
* Chickasaw (largest city: Houston)
* Clay (largest city: West Point)
* Copiah (largest city: Hazlehurst)
* Issaquena (largest city: Mayersville)
* Jasper (largest city: Bay Springs)
* Kemper (largest city: De Kalb)
* Lafayette (largest city: Oxford)
* Madison (largest city: Madison)
* Marshall (largest city: Holly Springs)
* Oktibbeha (largest city: Starkville)
* Panola (largest city: Batesville)
* Pike (largest city: McComb)
* Quitman (largest city: Lambert)
* Sharkey (largest city: Rolling Fork)
* Tallahatchie (largest city: Charleston)
* Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)
* Yazoo (largest city: Yazoo City)

#### By congressional district

Reeves won three of four congressional districts.
| District | Reeves | Hood | Representative |
| 1st | 59% | 40% | Trent Kelly |
| 2nd | 32% | 67% | Bennie Thompson |
| 3rd | 54% | 45% | Michael Guest |
| 4th | 63% | 35% | Steven Palazzo |