# 2008 Bavarian state election

The 2008 Bavarian state election was held on 28 September 2008 to elect the members of the Landtag of Bavaria. The result was a historic defeat for the Christian Social Union (CSU), which had governed with a majority uninterrupted since 1962, and had won over 60% of the vote in the 2003 election. Despite polling suggesting that the party would retain its majority with losses, it suffered a 17% swing and came up two seats short of a majority, its worst result since 1954. Minister-President and CSU leader Günther Beckstein subsequently resigned from both posts, and the Landtag elected Horst Seehofer as his successor after the CSU and Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to a coalition agreement.
The Free Voters of Bavaria entered the Landtag for the first time with 10% of the vote; the FDP also won seats for the first time in 14 years. The Left competed in its first Bavarian election, recording a modest result of 4.3%, but failing to win any seats.

## Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 15th Landtag of Bavaria.
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 2003 result | 2003 result |
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | Votes (%) | Seats |
| | CSU | Christian Social Union in Bavaria Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | Christian democracy | Günther Beckstein | 60.7% | 124 / 180 |
| | SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | Social democracy | Franz Maget | 19.6% | 41 / 180 |
| | Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | Green politics | Sepp Daxenberger | 7.7% | 15 / 180 |

## Opinion polling

| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CSU | SPD | Grüne | FW | FDP | Linke | ÖDP | Others | Lead |
| 2008 state election | 28 Sep 2008 | – | 43.4 | 18.6 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 24.8 |
| GMS | 20–21 Sep 2008 | 1,010 | 48 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 29 |
| Emnid | 10–18 Sep 2008 | 1,010 | 49 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | – | 3 | 29 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 16–18 Sep 2008 | 1,105 | 47 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 4 | – | 4 | 27 |
| Infratest dimap | 15–17 Sep 2008 | 1,000 | 47 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4 | – | 4 | 26 |
| Forsa | 8–12 Sep 2008 | 1,101 | 50 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 31 |
| GMS | 6–8 Sep 2008 | 1,006 | 49 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 30 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 28–30 Jul 2008 | 1,038 | 50 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 30 |
| Infratest dimap | 24–28 Jul 2008 | 1,000 | 48 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | – | 4 | 26 |
| Emnid | 23 Jun–17 Jul 2008 | ~500 | 51 | 19 | 9 | – | 7 | 5 | – | 9 | 32 |
| TNS Infratest | 3–8 Jul 2008 | 1,000 | 48 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 4 | – | 3 | 27 |
| GMS | 8–9 Jul 2008 | 1,006 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 30 |
| GMS | 2–6 Jun 2008 | 1,009 | 49 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 29 |
| Infratest dimap | 28–30 Apr 2008 | 1,000 | 48 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 25 |
| mifm München | 21–23 Apr 2008 | 1,000 | 44 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 3 | – | 4 | 24 |
| mifm München | 4–14 Apr 2008 | 1,001 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 4 | – | 3 | 21 |
| GMS | 8–14 Apr 2008 | 1,010 | 51 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 31 |
| GMS | 31 Mar–6 Apr 2008 | 1,512 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 29 |
| Emnid | 13–27 Feb 2008 | ~500 | 51 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 4 | – | 6 | 32 |
| mifm München | 31 Jan–7 Feb 2008 | 1,000 | 50 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | – | 5 | 30 |
| Infratest dimap | 3–7 Jan 2008 | 1,000 | 52 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 3 | – | 6 | 31 |
| Emnid | 10 Dec 2007–2 Jan 2008 | 800 | 54 | 20 | 10 | – | 6 | 4 | – | 6 | 34 |
| GMS | 2–3 Jan 2008 | 1,004 | 56 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 34 |
| GMS | 12–17 Dec 2007 | 1,010 | 55 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | – | 4 | 35 |
| Forsa | 5–27 Nov 2007 | 1,002 | 56 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4 | – | 7 | 39 |
| mifm München | 29 Oct–7 Nov 2007 | 1,000 | 53.8 | 19.1 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 7 | 3.2 | – | 5.3 | 34.7 |
| GMS | 21–22 Oct 2007 | 1,001 | 54 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 31 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24–26 Sep 2007 | 1,143 | 56 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | – | 2 | 34 |
| mifm München | 7–15 Sep 2007 | 1,003 | 53 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 36 |
| Forsa | 29 Aug–17 Sep 2007 | 1,003 | 57 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | – | 6 | 38 |
| Forsa | 28–30 Jul 2007 | 1,002 | 58 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | – | 6 | 41 |
| TNS Infratest | 17–19 Jul 2007 | 1,000 | 54 | 22 | 11 | – | 5 | 3 | – | 5 | 32 |
| dimap | 13–19 Jul 2007 | 1,000 | 58 | 18 | 11 | – | 4 | 4 | – | 5 | 40 |
| GMS | 13–18 Jun 2007 | 1,010 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 3 | – | 4 | 36 |
| Forsa | 4–14 Jun 2007 | 1,001 | 56 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 40 |
| Forsa | 25 Apr–8 May 2007 | 1,036 | 56 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | – | 6 | 39 |
| Forsa | 19 Mar–2 Apr 2007 | 1,012 | 54 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | – | 7 | 34 |
| Infratest dimap | 22–25 Mar 2007 | 1,002 | 53 | 23 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | – | 4 | 30 |
| GMS | 5–8 Mar 2007 | 1,012 | 53 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 33 |
| Forsa | 15–26 Feb 2007 | 1,002 | 53 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 34 |
| GMS | 22–25 Jan 2007 | 1,011 | 52 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
| Infratest dimap | 19–20 Jan 2007 | 1,000 | 52 | 24 | 9 | – | 7 | – | – | 8 | 28 |
| Infratest dimap | 15 Jan 2007 | 1,000 | 50 | 24 | 11 | – | 8 | – | – | 7 | 26 |
| Forsa | 10–12 Jan 2007 | 1,007 | 49 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | – | 7 | 27 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 12–13 Jan 2007 | 1,142 | 45 | 27 | 10 | – | 9 | – | – | 9 | 18 |
| Infratest dimap | 3–4 Jan 2007 | 1,000 | 54 | 22 | 9 | – | 7 | – | – | 8 | 32 |
| Forsa | 27–29 Dec 2006 | 1,009 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 4 | – | 7 | 36 |
| GMS | 18–23 Dec 2006 | 1,006 | 54 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 34 |
| Forsa | 24 Nov–5 Dec 2006 | 1,026 | 56 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 39 |
| Forsa | 23 Oct–7 Nov 2006 | 1,004 | 54 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 | 35 |
| GMS | 6–8 Oct 2006 | 1,002 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 31 |
| Forsa | 18 Sep–4 Oct 2006 | 1,006 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | – | 6 | 36 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep–1 Oct 2006 | 1,000 | 49 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | – | 6 | 25 |
| Forsa | 20 Aug–5 Sep 2006 | 1,005 | 58 | 16 | 10 | – | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 42 |
| Forsa | 3–12 Jul 2006 | 1,004 | 56 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 4 | – | 5 | 40 |
| GMS | 9–14 Jun 2006 | 1,002 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 2.0 | 8 | 2.5 | – | 4.5 | 36 |
| Forsa | 12–17 May 2006 | 1,002 | 52 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 3 | – | 5 | 34 |
| Emnid | 20 Apr–9 May 2006 | 1,000 | 53 | 23 | 9 | – | 5 | – | – | 10 | 30 |
| Forsa | 22–24 Feb 2006 | 1,003 | 52 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 3 | – | 5 | 31 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–15 Jan 2006 | 1,000 | 53 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 2 | – | 4 | 31 |
| Forsa | 4–11 Jan 2006 | 1,114 | 49 | 24 | 10 | – | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 25 |
| Peinelt | 17 Nov–9 Dec 2005 | 1,067 | 45.9 | 21.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 11.8 | – | – | 8.0 | 24.4 |
| GMS | 17–21 Dec 2005 | 1,001 | 56 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 34 |
| Infratest dimap | 15–16 Nov 2005 | 1,000 | 45 | 24 | 10 | – | 11 | 3 | – | 7 | 21 |
| Forsa | 4–7 Nov 2005 | 1,001 | 49 | 21 | 9 | – | 9 | 4 | – | 8 | 28 |
| Infratest dimap | 21–24 Jul 2005 | 1,000 | 59 | 18 | 9 | – | 4 | 4 | – | 6 | 41 |
| Infratest dimap | 5–9 Jan 2005 | 1,000 | 56 | 22 | 10 | – | 5 | – | – | 7 | 34 |
| Infratest dimap | 21–25 Jul 2004 | 1,000 | 58 | 17 | 12 | – | 5 | – | – | 8 | 41 |
| GMS | 17–20 Mar 2004 | 1,009 | 61.0 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 42 |
| Infratest dimap | 2–5 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | 62 | 19 | 9 | – | 3 | – | – | 7 | 43 |
| 2003 state election | 21 Sep 2003 | – | 60.7 | 19.6 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 2.6 | – | 2.0 | 3.4 | 41.1 |

## Election result

| | Christian Social Union (CSU) | 4,603,960 | 43.38 | -17.3 | 92 | -32 |
| | Social Democratic Party (SPD) | 1,972,437 | 18.59 | -1.0 | 39 | -2 |
| | Free Voters of Bavaria (FW) | 1,085,896 | 10.23 | +6.2 | 21 | +21 |
| | Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) | 999,111 | 9.41 | +1.7 | 19 | +4 |
| | Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 847,227 | 7.98 | +5.4 | 16 | +16 |
| | The Left (Linke) | 461,755 | 4.35 | New | 0 | New |
| | Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) | 212,200 | 2.00 | – | 0 | ±0 |
| | The Republicans (REP) | 146,073 | 1.38 | -0.9 | 0 | ±0 |
| | National Democratic Party (NPD) | 123,399 | 1.16 | +1.2 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Bavaria Party (BP) | 116,464 | 1.10 | +0.3 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Pensioners' Party (RRP) | 19,760 | 0.19 | New | 0 | New |
| | The Violets (Violetten) | 15,465 | 0.15 | New | 0 | New |
| | Citizens' Bloc (BB) | 7,306 | 0.07 | – | 0 | ±0 |
| | Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo) | 1,222 | 0.01 | -0.1 | 0 | ±0 |
| Total | Total | 10,612,275 | 100.00 | – | 187 | – |
Popular vote
CSU
43.38%
SPD
18.59%
FW
10.23%
B'90/GRÜNE
9.41%
FDP
7.98%
DIE LINKE
4.35%
Other
6.06% :
Landtag seats
CSU
49.19%
SPD
20.86%
FW
11.23%
B'90/GRÜNE
10.16%
FDP
8.56% :