# 2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

The 2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

## Overview
### Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities. Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).
The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of three seats, with the remaining 18 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.
The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.

### Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 24 May 2015.
The President of the Junta of Communities had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.

## Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

### Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha (25 until 13 August 2012 and 27 from 13 August 2012 to 21 July 2014).

#### Color key

Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls  Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | Lead |
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | — | 71.5 | 37.5 16 | 36.1 15 | 3.1 0 | 1.0 0 | 9.7 2 | 8.6 0 | 1.4 |
| TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA | 24 May 2015 | 20,250 | ? | 38.4 15/17 | 35.2 13/15 | – | – | 9.9 1/2 | 7.0 0/1 | 3.2 |
| GAD3/Antena 3 | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? 15/16 | ? 13/14 | – | – | ? 2/3 | ? 0/3 | ? |
| GAD3/ABC | 17 May 2015 | ? | ? | 39.4 16/17 | 27.5 10/11 | – | – | 10.6 2/3 | 14.2 3/4 | 11.9 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 17 May 2015 | 900 | ? | 40.8 16/17 | 35.6 12/13 | 3.1 0 | 0.9 0 | 8.9 1/2 | 9.3 1/2 | 5.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo | 8–12 May 2015 | 1,200 | ? | 37.9 15/17 | 32.9 11/13 | 4.3 0 | – | 10.7 3 | 9.6 2/3 | 5.0 |
| PP | 27 Apr–8 May 2015 | 5,000 | ? | 37.5 17 | 33.6 12 | 4.5 0 | – | 10.3 2 | 9.8 2 | 3.9 |
| Metroscopia/El País | 30 Apr–5 May 2015 | 2,000 | 77 | 35.1 14 | 26.6 10 | – | – | 12.6 4 | 17.6 5 | 8.5 |
| Noxa/PSOE | 28 Apr–4 May 2015 | 2,000 | ? | 31.6 12 | 32.3 14 | – | – | 10.0 2 | 17.0 5 | 0.7 |
| Sigma Dos/La Tribuna | 27 Apr–4 May 2015 | 1,500 | ? | 37.6 15/16 | 28.8 11 | 6.4 0 | – | 11.4 3/4 | 11.1 2/4 | 8.8 |
| lavozdeltajo.com | 23 Apr–4 May 2015 | 7,274 | ? | 39.5 13/14 | 40.1 14/15 | 1.2 0 | 0.2 0 | 10.7 3/4 | 8.5 2/3 | 0.6 |
| GAD3/ABC | 23–28 Apr 2015 | 1,004 | ? | 40.1 17/18 | 25.5 9/10 | 3.6 0 | 0.8 0 | 9.1 2/3 | 16.9 3/5 | 14.6 |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | ? | 34.9 14/15 | 35.1 13 | 3.3 0 | 1.4 0 | 9.9 2 | 12.0 3/4 | 0.2 |
| Noxa/La Calle | 11–17 Apr 2015 | 2,000 | 75.6 | 35.1 14 | 37.1 14 | 3.1 0 | 2.9 0 | 11.2 4 | 8.5 1 | 2.0 |
| Noxa/La Calle | 7–14 Mar 2015 | 2,000 | 73.6 | 35.4 14 | 36.4 14 | 2.8 0 | 3.6 0 | 11.9 4 | 7.8 1 | 1.0 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 2–11 Mar 2015 | 900 | ? | 42.3 17/18 | 33.1 10/11 | 2.8 0 | 1.1 0 | 10.0 2/3 | 9.2 2/3 | 9.2 |
| PSOE | 25 Feb 2015 | ? | ? | ? 14/15 | ? 15/16 | – | – | ? 3/5 | – | ? |
| PP | 20 Feb 2015 | ? | ? | ? 17 | ? 11/14 | ? 1/2 | – | ? 4/5 | – | ? |
| PP | 28 Jan 2015 | ? | ? | ? 18 | ? 10 | – | – | ? 5 | – | ? |
| GAD3/ABC | 7–21 Jan 2015 | 2,002 | ? | 42.3 18 | 32.5 11 | – | – | 11.6 4 | – | 9.8 |
| Asturbarómetro | 10 Dec–9 Jan 2015 | ? | ? | 42.9 17 | 28.1 10 | 2.7 0 | 2.8 0 | 16.4 6 | 2.4 0 | 14.8 |
| Llorente & Cuenca | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? 13/15 | ? 14/16 | – | – | ? 2/4 | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Tribuna | 12–23 Oct 2014 | 3,000 | 70.7 | 42.6 17 | 35.5 13 | 3.2 0 | 3.4 0 | 12.4 3 | – | 7.1 |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | — | 46.4 | 37.7 24 | 28.8 18 | 8.7 4 | 7.2 4 | 6.4 3 | 2.2 0 | 8.9 |
| GAD3/ABC | 26 Mar–10 Apr 2014 | 1,500 | ? | 44.8 28 | 38.7 23 | 8.2 2 | – | – | – | 6.1 |
| NC Report/La Tribuna | 18–28 Nov 2013 | 3,000 | 69.0 | 41.3 27 | 38.9 23 | 7.5 3 | 5.6 0 | – | – | 2.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? 27 | ? 23/24 | ? 1/2 | ? 0/1 | – | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Tribuna | 2–15 May 2013 | 3,000 | ? | 41.9 27 | 39.7 23 | 7.2 3 | 5.5 0 | – | – | 2.2 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 350 | ? | 41.8 27 | 40.2 23/24 | ? 2/3 | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| GAD3/ABC | 1–22 Apr 2013 | 1,500 | ? | 43.5 28 | 40.1 22 | 8.9 3 | 3.3 0 | – | – | 3.4 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | — | 75.8 | 55.8 32 | 30.3 17 | 5.8 0 | 5.0 0 | – | – | 25.5 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | — | 76.0 | 48.1 25 | 43.4 24 | 3.8 0 | 1.8 0 | – | – | 4.7 |

### Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | ? | N | Lead |
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | — | 26.7 | 25.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 6.1 | — | 27.2 | 1.0 |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | 18.5 | 14.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 34.7 | 7.8 | 3.6 |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | — | 17.3 | 13.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | — | 52.9 | 4.1 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | — | 42.2 | 22.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 | – | – | — | 23.3 | 19.3 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | — | 36.5 | 32.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | – | – | — | 23.1 | 3.6 |

### Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | Other/ None | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | 22.7 | 20.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 27.1 | 2.4 |

### Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | Other/ None | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | 42.4 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 36.1 | 24.4 |

### Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Cospedal PP | Page PSOE | Ávila IU | Molina Podemos | Ligero C's | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,961 | 25.7 | 17.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 47.8 | 8.6 |
| Noxa/La Calle | 7–14 Mar 2015 | 2,000 | 39.1 | 46.7 | – | – | – | – | 14.2 | 7.6 |

## Results
### Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results → :
| Parties and alliances | Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Popular vote | Popular vote | Seats | Seats |
| Parties and alliances | Parties and alliances | Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− |
| | People's Party (PP) | 413,349 | 37.49 | –10.62 | 16 | –9 |
| | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 398,104 | 36.11 | –7.29 | 15 | –9 |
| | We Can (Podemos) | 107,463 | 9.75 | New | 2 | +2 |
| | Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 95,230 | 8.64 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Let's Win Castilla–La Mancha–The Greens–United Left (Ganemos–LV–IU)$^1$ | 34,230 | 3.10 | –0.67 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 10,866 | 0.99 | –0.76 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 8,943 | 0.81 | +0.46 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Vox (Vox) | 5,302 | 0.48 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Union of Independent Citizens (UCIN)$^2$ | 5,061 | 0.46 | +0.34 | 0 | ±0 |
| | The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV) | 1,918 | 0.17 | –0.03 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Castilian Party–Castilian Unity (PCAS–UdCa)$^3$ | 1,532 | 0.14 | –0.15 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 987 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Independents and Liberals for Manzanares (LIM) | 287 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| Blank ballots | Blank ballots | 19,256 | 1.75 | +0.08 | | |
| Total | Total | 1,102,528 | | | 33 | –16 |
| Valid votes | Valid votes | 1,102,528 | 97.82 | –0.87 | | |
| Invalid votes | Invalid votes | 24,619 | 2.18 | +0.87 | | |
| Votes cast / turnout | Votes cast / turnout | 1,127,147 | 71.50 | –4.46 | | |
| Abstentions | Abstentions | 449,204 | 28.50 | +4.46 | | |
| Registered voters | Registered voters | 1,576,351 | | | | |
| Sources |||||||
| Footnotes: $^1$ Let's Win Castilla–La Mancha–The Greens–United Left results are compared to United Left of Castilla–La Mancha totals in the 2011 election.$^2$ Union of Independent Citizens results are compared to Union of Independent Citizens of Toledo totals in the 2011 election.$^3$ Castilian Party–Castilian Unity results are compared to the combined totals of Castilian Party and Castilian Unity in the 2011 election. |||||||
Popular vote
PP
37.49%
PSOE
36.11%
Podemos
9.75%
C's
8.64%
Ganemos–LV–IU
3.10%
Others
3.17%
Blank ballots
1.75% :
Seats
PP
48.48%
PSOE
45.45%
Podemos
6.06% :

### Distribution by constituency

| Constituency | PP | PP | PSOE | PSOE | Podemos | Podemos |
| Constituency | % | S | % | S | % | S |
| Albacete | 36.7 | 3 | 33.8 | 3 | 11.2 | − |
| Ciudad Real | 37.1 | 4 | 38.8 | 4 | 8.4 | − |
| Cuenca | 41.5 | 3 | 37.6 | 2 | 8.0 | − |
| Guadalajara | 33.7 | 2 | 30.0 | 2 | 14.6 | 1 |
| Toledo | 38.3 | 4 | 36.9 | 4 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Total | 37.5 | 16 | 36.1 | 15 | 9.7 | 2 |
| Sources |||||||

## Aftermath

Investiture Emiliano García-Page (PSOE) :
| Ballot → | Ballot → | 1 July 2015 |
| Required majority → | Required majority → | 17 out of 33 Y |
| | Yes • PSOE (15) • Podemos (2) | 17 / 33 |
| | No • PP (16) | 16 / 33 |
| | Abstentions | 0 / 33 |
| | Absentees | 0 / 33 |
| Sources |||