# 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria. Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

## Background

Kwara State is a large state in the North Central with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing agricultural underdevelopment, deforestation, and insecurity. The state's 2019 elections had a large swing towards the state APC. Although the APC had won most 2015 elections in Kwara, the vast majority of APC officeholders left the party in 2018 to follow Senator Bukola Saraki into the PDP; despite the Saraki dynasty's longstanding control over Kwaran politics, the APC-led Ó Tó Gẹ́ movement swept the state in 2019. The APC won all three senate seats back and in the process, defeated Saraki by a wide margin. Similarly, the APC gained five PDP-held House seats to sweep all House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC gained the governorship and all but one seat in the House of Assembly. These results, coupled with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari (APC) winning the state with nearly 70%, led to the categorization of the 2019 elections as a seismic shift in the state's politics.

## Polling

| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting |
| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Tinubu APC | Obi LP | Kwankwaso NNPP | Abubakar PDP | Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting |
| BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 48% | 14% | 0% | 8% | – | 11% | 12% | 8% |
| Nextier (Kwara crosstabs of national poll) | 27 January 2023 | N/A | 35.9% | 25.6% | – | 30.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | – | – |
| Stears | January 2023 | 500 | 26% | 11% | 2% | 6% | – | 51% | – | 6% |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Kwara crosstabs of national poll) | 22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 29% | 11% | 1% | 13% | 1% | 46% | – | – |

## Projections

| Source | Projection | Projection | As of |
| Africa Elects | Likely Tinubu | Likely Tinubu | 24 February 2023 |
| Dataphyte |
| Dataphyte | Tinubu: | 42.54% | 11 February 2023 |
| Dataphyte | Obi: | 17.66% | 11 February 2023 |
| Dataphyte | Abubakar: | 25.21% | 11 February 2023 |
| Dataphyte | Others: | 14.59% | 11 February 2023 |
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence | Tinubu | Tinubu | 17 February 2023 |
| SBM Intelligence | Too close to call | Too close to call | 15 December 2022 |
| ThisDay |
| ThisDay | Tinubu: | 35% | 27 December 2022 |
| ThisDay | Obi: | 10% | 27 December 2022 |
| ThisDay | Kwankwaso: | 10% | 27 December 2022 |
| ThisDay | Abubakar: | 40% | 27 December 2022 |
| ThisDay | Others/Undecided: | 5% | 27 December 2022 |
| The Nation | Tinubu | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 |

## General election
### Results

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kwara State :
| Party | Party | Candidate | % |
| | A | Christopher Imumolen | |
| | AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |
| | ADP | Yabagi Sani | |
| | APP | Osita Nnadi | |
| | AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |
| | ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |
| | APC | Bola Tinubu | |
| | APGA | Peter Umeadi | |
| | APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |
| | BP | Sunday Adenuga | |
| | LP | Peter Obi | |
| | NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |
| | New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |
| | PRP | Kola Abiola | |
| | PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |
| | SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |
| | YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |
| | ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 100.00% |
| Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | |

#### By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC | Bola Tinubu APC | Atiku Abubakar PDP | Atiku Abubakar PDP | Peter Obi LP | Peter Obi LP | Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP | Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP | Others | Others | Total valid votes |
| Senatorial District | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Total valid votes |
| Kwara Central Senatorial District | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kwara North Senatorial District | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kwara South Senatorial District | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |

#### By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC | Bola Tinubu APC | Atiku Abubakar PDP | Atiku Abubakar PDP | Peter Obi LP | Peter Obi LP | Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP | Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP | Others | Others | Total valid votes |
| Federal Constituency | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Total valid votes |
| Asa/Ilorin West Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Baruten/Kaiama Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Edu/Moro/Pategi Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ekiti/Isin/Irepodun/Oke-ero Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ilorin East/Ilorin South Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Offa/Oyun/Ifelodun Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |

#### By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC | Bola Tinubu APC | Atiku Abubakar PDP | Atiku Abubakar PDP | Peter Obi LP | Peter Obi LP | Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP | Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP | Others | Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) |
| Local government area | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) |
| Asa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Baruten | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Edu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ekiti | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ifelodun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ilorin East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ilorin South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ilorin West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Irepodun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Isin | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kaiama | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Moro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Offa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oke Ero | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oyun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Pategi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |