# 2023 Taraba State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Taraba State gubernatorial election was held on 18 March 2023, to elect the governor of Taraba State, concurrent with elections to the Taraba State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly. The election, which was postponed from its original 11 March date, was held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. Incumbent PDP Governor Darius Ishaku was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third term. Kefas Agbu held the office for the PDP by defeating NNPP nominee Muhammad Sani Yahaya.
Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating Agbu on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Senator for Taraba South Emmanuel Bwacha on 26 May. Two prolonged court battles challenged the APC primary with one case successfully nullifying the primary through a High Court ruling on 14 November 2022; however, the other case reached higher courts faster and culminated in the Supreme Court also nullifying the primary on 1 February 2023 before ordering a rerun to be conducted. The APC conducted a new primary on 10 February that resulted in Bwacha winning again.
On 21 March, INEC declared Agbu as the victor with official totals showing him winning about 276,000 votes to defeat Yahaya with about 202,000 votes and Bwacha with roughly 143,000 votes. While Bwacha conceded the election, Yahaya rejected the results due to alleged irregularities and filed a challenge at the electoral tribunal. The legal case eventually reached the Supreme Court, which upheld the election of Agbu in a January 2024 judgment.

## Electoral system

The governor of Taraba State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

## Background

Taraba State is a diverse, agriculture-based state in the Middle Belt that has faced challenges in security as inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers heavily affect the state. The overproliferation of weaponry and increased pressure for land along with failures in governance led to the worsening of these clashes in the years ahead of the election.
Politically, the 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. On the federal level, PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state but it swung slightly towards Buhari; legislatively, the parties fairly evenly split the Senate seats and won House of Representatives seats. Statewise, Ishaku won re-election by a wide margin and the PDP won a majority in the House of Assembly. At the beginning of Ishaku's second term, he vowed to improve state revenue, revitalise agriculture, and develop security. In terms of his performance, Ishaku was criticized for the initial failure of a 2019 peace meeting between Tiv and Jukun groups and his prolonged absence from the state in 2020.

## Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June. According to some candidates and community groups, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Taraba North Senatorial District to have the next governor as no governor has come from the North since 2007. However, no major party officially closed zoned their nominations to non-northerners and both ended up nominating southerners.

### All Progressives Congress

On the primary date, disputes over the direct primary method and the shooting of a primary committee member forced the committee to suspend the primary. After the primary continued and completed on 27 May, Senator Emmanuel Bwacha was declared victor with over 97,000 votes, about 61%; Bwacha called for party unity in his acceptance speech. In July, Bwacha selected Iliyasu Kirim—from Karim Lamido in the northern district—as his running mate. Kirim also called for party unity after the nomination. However, David Sabo Kente—a losing aspirant—rejected the results and approached the judiciary for an annulment; on 20 September, a Federal High Court sitting in Jalingo sided with Kente and ordered a new primary to be conducted based on electoral irregularities. The lawsuit of another aspirant—Senator Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf—ended with a High Court sitting in Abuja also voiding the primary on 14 November. Bwacha initiated an appeal against the Jalingo High Court ruling and vowed to also appeal the Abuja High Court ruling. Although the Abuja High Court case remained in litigation, Jalingo High Court case also continued with a Court of Appeal judgment on 24 November relegitimizing the primary. However, Kente appealed that ruling to the Supreme Court which sided with him in a 1 February judgment that definitively ordered a new primary to be held within fourteen days. Kante lauded the court ruling and asked his supporters to await the response of the national party while Bwacha's camp expressed confidence that he would win the rerun. However, the national party did not publicly order a new primary until 9 February, when it communicated to the aspirants that the primary would be held on the next day in Jalingo. The process was disputed by candidates other than Bwacha, who boycotted the exercise and vowed to return to court. In the rerun direct primary, Bwacha won again by a similarly wide margin.

#### Nominated

* Emmanuel Bwacha: Senator for Taraba South (2011–present) and former Commissioner for Agriculture
** Running mate—Iliyasu Kirim

#### Eliminated in primary

* David Sabo Kente: member of the Northeast Development Commission (2019–present), 2019 APC gubernatorial aspirant, and 2015 SDP gubernatorial nominee
* Danladi Kifasi: former civil servant
* Saleh Mamman: former Minister of Power (2019–2021)
* Anthony George Manzo: former Senator for Taraba North (2007–2011)
* Muhammad Sani Yahaya: 2019 APC gubernatorial aspirant and professor (defected after the primary to successfully run in the NNPP gubernatorial primary)
* Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf: Senator for Taraba Central (2015–present)

#### Withdrew

* Ezekiel Afukonyo: Chairman of the Board of Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital and 2019 APC gubernatorial aspirant

#### Declined

* Abubakar Sani Danladi: 2019 APC gubernatorial nominee and former Senator for Taraba North
* Garba Umar: 2019 APC gubernatorial aspirant and former acting governor (2012–2013)

#### Results

Aspirant' vote share
APC primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | APC | Emmanuel Bwacha | 97,655 | 62.57% |
| | APC | Anthony George Manzo | 16,625 | 10.65% |
| | APC | Danladi Kifasi | 12,202 | 7.82% |
| | APC | Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf | 10,828 | 6.94% |
| | APC | Muhammad Sani Yahaya | 9,929 | 6.36% |
| | APC | David Sabo Kente | 5,836 | 3.74% |
| | APC | Saleh Mamman | 4,875 | 3.12% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 156,082 | 100.00% |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 156,082 | 57.93% |
Aspirants' vote share
APC rerun primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | APC | Emmanuel Bwacha | 778 | 98.98% |
| | APC | Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf | 8 | 1.02% |
| | APC | Other aspirants | 0 | 0.00% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 786 | 100.00% |

### People's Democratic Party

In early 2022, state PDP Chairman Kefas Agbu said that the party would adhere to zoning to the North with later reports stating that both Agbu and Ishaku were against a nominee coming from the South as Ishaku himself is Southern. However, Agbu later said that while the party's position was that the ticket should go to a northerner, the zoning would only be unofficial and aspirants from other regions would not be prevented from contesting. Also, Agbu was criticized for accompanying candidate Victor Bala Kona to purchase his nomination forms along with Ishaku's senatorial forms; the appearance created an assumption that both Agbu and Ishaku were supporting Bala Kona.
Ahead of the primary, there were rumors that Agbu had secretly purchased nomination forms himself; Agbu, from Taraba South, denied the rumors and claimed that his candidacy would go against zoning. However, in the days before the primary, reports emerged that former minister and de facto Taraba PDP leader Theophilus Danjuma planned on imposing Agbu as the nominee. On primary day, the plan was enacted as Agbu suddenly emerged as a candidate and easily won the primary by an 80% margin of victory amid protests from other candidates. In the weeks following the primary, two defeated candidates—Jerome Nyame and Hilkiah BubaJoda Mafindi—separately asked courts to disqualify Agbu because Agbu had not purchased forms. This legal situation changed in August when the defeated aspirants coalesced around Nyame's suit as Mafindi and Joseph Albasu Kunini joined as interested parties. However, the cases were dismissed on 20 September by a High Court then on 25 November by a Court of Appeal. By February 2023, the case reached the Supreme Court which also dismissed the case based on technicalities.

#### Nominated

* Kefas Agbu: former state PDP Chairman and former chairman of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency
** Running mate—Aminu Abdullahi Alkali

#### Eliminated in primary

* Aminu Ayuba Kotolo: former state Accountant-General
* Victor Bala Kona: former Taraba State PDP Chairman (2012–2020)
* Joel Danlami Ikenya: 2019 APGA Taraba South senatorial nominee, former Minister of Labour and Productivity (2014–2015), and former Senator for Taraba South (2007–2011)
* Joseph Albasu Kunini: House of Assembly member for Lau (2011–present) and Speaker of the House of Assembly (2019–present)
* Hilkiah BubaJoda Mafindi: former chairman of the State Planning Commission
* Jerome Nyame: entrepreneur and brother of former governor Jolly Nyame

#### Withdrew

* Damian Dodo: lawyer

#### Results

Aspirant' vote share
PDP primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | PDP | Kefas Agbu | 443 | 86.02% |
| | PDP | Joseph Albasu Kunini | 31 | 6.02% |
| | PDP | Jerome Nyame | 24 | 4.66% |
| | PDP | Joel Danlami Ikenya | 11 | 2.14% |
| | PDP | Hilkiah BubaJoda Mafindi | 6 | 1.17% |
| | PDP | Aminu Ayuba Kotolo | 0 | 0.00% |
| | PDP | Victor Bala Kona | 0 | 0.00% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 515 | 100.00% |
| Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | 2 | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 517 | 92.82 |

### Minor parties

* Hamman Muhammed Mbali (Accord)
** Running mate: Mohammed Isa
* Abubakar Sadiq Gambo (Action Alliance)
** Running mate: Oliver Ndi Mayuka
* Hamman Abubakar Mustapha (Action Democratic Party)
** Running mate: Bako Mairiga Mamman
* Danjuma Umaru (Action Peoples Party)
** Running mate: Matakitswen Shekarau Masaibi
* David Charima (African Action Congress)
** Running mate: Shuaibu Abbo Usman
* Muhammad A. Ibrahim (African Democratic Congress)
** Running mate: Emmanuel K. Isuwa
* Gideon Wunuji Adda (Allied Peoples Movement)
** Running mate: Anas Dodo Adamu
* Sunday Fudemure Manu (All Progressives Grand Alliance)
** Running mate: Musa Samaila
* Kabiru Bala (Boot Party)
** Running mate: Adamu Nawukari Sonweh
* Joel Danlami Ikenya (Labour Party)
** Running mate: Mohammed Ibrahim Lau
* Muhammad Sani Yahaya (New Nigeria Peoples Party)
** Running mate: Danladi Yakubu Balutu
* Ibrahim Sani (National Rescue Movement)
** Running mate: Elijah Amamji
* Josiah Wukari Wasa (People's Redemption Party)
** Running mate: Suleiman Ahmed Nyakos
* Danladi Baido (Social Democratic Party)
** Running mate: Ahmadu Dattijo
* Sa'adu Abubakar Hassan (Young Progressives Party)
** Running mate: Tsokojo Daniel Tsokojo
* Bello Adamu (Zenith Labour Party)
** Running mate: Samaila Andeze

## Campaign

As the general election campaign began in June 2022, pundits focused on the major candidates' attempts to reconcile aggrieved members of their own parties in the wake of contentious party primaries. While the APC primary was also disputed, the sudden emergence of Agbu as a PDP candidate was seen as a betrayal as some party members especially due to the previous assurances from Agbu that the plot was not true. It was also noted that both parties disregarded the zoning principle by picking nominees from the southern district instead of the northern district. Again, this controversy was less impactful in the APC as the party had fully opened its primary to all contenders but in the PDP, both Ishaku and then-state party chairman Agbu had promised to nominate a northerner. In the APC, the controversy centered around the primary conduct itself as analysts expect runners-up to leave the party or refuse to support Bwacha.
As campaigning continued into August 2022, the PDP was still beset by primary disputes as the aggrieved aspirants coalesced behind a single lawsuit challenging Agbu's nomination. Another factor was the presidential pardon of corrupt former governor Jolly Nyame; his release in August swiftly led to speculation on which gubernatorial candidate he would support with a focus on Agbu, Bwacha, and SDP nominee Danladi Baido. However, the next month brought a new surprise to the race as Bwacha was removed as APC nominee by a court ruling that annulled its primary. Although the party immediately appealed the ruling, the judgment renewed the APC internal crisis with former aspirants calling for a new primary to be conducted. Although the initial annulment was overturned in late November, the APC crisis had only intensified after another court ruled the primary invalid earlier that month. By February, the initial case reached the Supreme Court which ordered the APC to hold a new primary within fourteen days. On 10 February, the party again nominated Bwacha by a wide margin but similarly to the original primary, other aspirants rejected the process.
On 25 February, the presidential election in the state was won by Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Not long afterwards, the state Christian Association of Nigeria chapter endorsed Agbu in a move that analysts labeled as potentially impactful. Pundits also noted the impacts of NNPP nominee Muhammad Sani Yahaya and LP nominee Joel Danlami Ikenya in the final stretch of campaigning in addition to ethnic and religious identity politics.

## Projections

| Source | Projection | Projection | As of |
| Africa Elects | Lean Agbu | Lean Agbu | 17 March 2023 |
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence | Agbu | Agbu | 2 March 2023 |

## Conduct
### Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election. Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.
* 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
* 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
* 9 June 2022 – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
* 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
* 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
* 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
* 16 March 2023 – Final day of the official campaign period

## General election
### Results

2023 Taraba State gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | % |
| | A | Hamman Muhammed Mbali | |
| | AA | Abubakar Sadiq Gambo | |
| | ADP | Hamman Abubakar Mustapha | |
| | APP | Danjuma Umaru | |
| | AAC | David Charima | |
| | ADC | Ibrahim Aminu | |
| | APM | Gideon Wunuji Adda | |
| | APC | Emmanuel Bwacha | |
| | APGA | Sunday Fudemure Manu | |
| | BP | Kabiru Bala | |
| | LP | Joel Danlami Ikenya | |
| | New Nigeria Peoples Party | Muhammad Sani Yahaya | |
| | NRM | Ibrahim Sani | |
| | PDP | Kefas Agbu | |
| | PRP | Josiah Wukari Wasa | |
| | SDP | Danladi Baido | |
| | YPP | Sa'adu Abubakar Hassan | |
| | ZLP | Bello Adamu | |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 100.00% |
| Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | |

#### By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Emmanuel Bwacha APC | Emmanuel Bwacha APC | Kefas Agbu PDP | Kefas Agbu PDP | Others | Others | Total Valid Votes |
| Senatorial District | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Total Valid Votes |
| Taraba Central Senatorial District | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Taraba North Senatorial District | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Taraba South Senatorial District | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |

#### By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Emmanuel Bwacha APC | Emmanuel Bwacha APC | Kefas Agbu PDP | Kefas Agbu PDP | Others | Others | Total Valid Votes |
| Federal Constituency | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Total Valid Votes |
| Bali/Gassol Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Jalingo/Yorro/Zing Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Karim Lamido/Lau/Ardo-Kola Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Sardauna/Gashaka/Kurmi Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Takum/Donga/Ussa Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Wukari/Ibi Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |

#### By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.
| LGA | Emmanuel Bwacha APC | Emmanuel Bwacha APC | Kefas Agbu PDP | Kefas Agbu PDP | Others | Others | Total Valid Votes | Turnout Percentage |
| LGA | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Total Valid Votes | Turnout Percentage |
| Ardo Kola | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bali | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Donga | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gashaka | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gassol | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Jalingo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Karim Lamido | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kurmi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Lau | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sardauna | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Takum | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ussa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Wukari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Yorro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Zing | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |