# 2023 Katsina State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Katsina State gubernatorial election took place on 18 March 2023, to elect the governor of Katsina State, concurrent with the elections to the Katsina State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly. The election was postponed from its original 11 March date, three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. Incumbent APC Governor Aminu Bello Masari was term-limited and could not seek for re-election to a third term. Umar Dikko Radda — the former SMEDAN Director-General — held the governorship for the APC by a margin of 27% over former Senator Garba Yakubu Lado, the PDP nominee.
Party primaries were scheduled between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating Lado, a former Senator for Katsina South, on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Dikko Radda on 26 May.
The day after Election Day, INEC declared Radda as the victor with official totals showed him winning just over 860,000 votes (~63% of the vote) to defeat Lado, who won about 487,000 votes (~36% of the vote).

## Electoral system

The governor of Katsina State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

## Background

Katsina State is a highly populated, northwestern state mainly inhabited by two ethnic groups: Hausa and Fulani communities. It has a growing economy that is faced by rising insecurity, desertification, and low education rates.
Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed the state's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Bello Masari won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly levels were carried by APC nominees. At the beginning of his term, Bello Masari said his administration would focus on security, agriculture, water resource management, and education. In terms of his performance, Bello Masari was praised for increasing his government's diversity but was heavily criticized for his response to rising insecurity.

## Primary elections

The primary election took place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June. According to some activists from the state's northern senatorial district, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the north to produce the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Katsina governors have come from either the Central or South senatorial districts. On the other hand, groups from Katsina South Senatorial District were pushing for the office to be retained by their district by claiming that Katsina Central Senatorial District produced the governor for four terms and thus Katsina South should as well.

### All Progressives Congress

In early April 2022, articles suggested that the state APC zoned its nomination to the Katsina Central Senatorial District, but this claim was swiftly denied by Bello Masari media aide who said no decision on zoning had been made by the party.
Pre-primary analysis centered around which candidate would receive Bello Masari's endorsement or tacit support. On the primary date, the candidates contested an indirect primary at the Muhammadu Dikko Stadium in Katsina that ended with former federal agency head Umar Dikko Radda emerging as the APC nominee after results showed him narrowly defeating Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa and Abbas Umar Masanawa with about 29% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Dikko Radda praised the primary organizers and called for unity with his former opponents. Inuwa initially publicly conceded and pledged to support Dikko Radda; however, he later decried the results amid mass defections of his supporters to the NNPP. Post-primary analysis noted the potential bribery of delegates during the primary along with the internal party crisis as Inuwa and others kicked while Dikko Radda had threatened to remove officeholders that did not support him. Dikko Radda initially picked Yusuf Aliyu Musawa as his running mate but Aliyu Musawa withdrew and was replaced by Faruk Lawal Jobe in mid-August. In October, Inuwa defected to the PDP.

#### Nominated

* Dikko Umar Radda: former Director-General of the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Agency (2016–2022)
** Running mate—Faruk Lawal Jobe: former Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning

#### Eliminated in primary

* Umar Abdullahi Tsauri: 2015 APGA gubernatorial nominee
* Ahmed Musa Dangiwa: former Managing Director/CEO of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria
* Abdulkarim Dauda: former police officer
* Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa: former Secretary to the State Government (1999–2007; 2015–2022) (defected after the primary to the PDP)
* Faruk Lawal Jobe: former Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning
* Abbas Umar Masanawa: former managing director of the Nigerian Security Printing and Minting Company Limited
* Mannir Yakubu: Deputy Governor (2019–present) and former Commissioner of Agriculture and Natural Resources (2019–2022)
* Abubakar Sadiq Yar'adua: former House of Representatives member for Katsina Central

#### Declined

* Abu Ibrahim: former Senator for Katsina South (2003–2007; 2011–2015)
* Sani Mashi: former Director-General of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (2017–2021)
* Hadi Sirika: Minister of Aviation (2019–present), Minister of State for Aviation (2015–2019), former Senator for Katsina North (2011–2015), and former House of Representatives member

#### Results

Candidates' vote share
APC primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | APC | Umar Dikko Radda | 506 | 28.32% |
| | APC | Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa | 442 | 24.73% |
| | APC | Abbas Umar Masanawa | 436 | 24.40% |
| | APC | Ahmed Musa Dangiwa | 220 | 12.31% |
| | APC | Faruk Lawal Jobe | 71 | 3.97% |
| | APC | Mannir Yakubu | 65 | 3.64% |
| | APC | Abubakar Sadiq Yar'adua | 32 | 1.80% |
| | APC | Umar Abdullahi Tsauri | 8 | 0.45% |
| | APC | Abdulkarim Dauda | 7 | 0.39% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,787 | 100.00% |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 1,805 | 100.00% |

### People's Democratic Party

On the primary date, the four candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Garba Yakubu Lado—former Senator and the party's 2019 nominee—winning the nomination after results showed him defeating runner-up Salisu Yusuf Majigiri by a 44% margin. In his acceptance speech, Lado praised the primary organizers and thanked the delegates while Yusuf Majigiri publicly conceded and pledged to support Dikko Radda.

#### Nominated

* Garba Yakubu Lado: 2019 PDP gubernatorial nominee, former Senator for Katsina South, and former House of Representatives member
** Running mate—Ahmed Aminu Yar’Adua: former managing director of the National Inland Waterways Authority and cousin of former President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua

#### Eliminated in primary

* Shehu Inuwa Imam: former House of Representatives member for Faskari/Kankara/Sabuwa
* Ahmed Aminu Yar’Adua: former managing director of the National Inland Waterways Authority and cousin of former President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua
* Salisu Yusuf Majigiri: former state PDP Chairman

#### Withdrew

* Muttaqha Rabe Darma: former Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (defected prior to the primary to the APC)

#### Declined

* Ahmad Babba Kaita: Senator for Katsina North (2018–present) and former House of Representatives member for Kankia/Kusada/Ingawa (2011–2018)

#### Results

Candidates' vote share
PDP primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | PDP | Garba Yakubu Lado | 740 | 67.64% |
| | PDP | Salisu Yusuf Majigiri | 257 | 23.49% |
| | PDP | Ahmed Aminu Yar’Adua | 53 | 4.84% |
| | PDP | Shehu Inuwa Imam | 44 | 4.02% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,094 | 100.00% |
| Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | 4 | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 1,098 | Unknown |

### Minor parties

* Muhammad Bara'u Tanimu (Accord)
** Running mate: Salisu Musa
* Garba Sani Dankani (Action Alliance)
** Running mate: Jikamshi Dahiru Magaji
* Murtala Ahmed (Action Democratic Party)
** Running mate: Usman Hafiz
* Ibrahim Trader Aminu (African Democratic Congress)
** Running mate: Musa Usman
* Kabir Kado (Boot Party)
** Running mate: Jamilu Muhammad
* Ibrahim Abu-Musawa (Labour Party)
** Running mate: Abdullahi Sanusi Tukur
* Mohammed Nur Khalil (New Nigeria Peoples Party)
** Running mate: Muttaqha Rabe Darma
* Ishaka Abdullahi (National Rescue Movement)
** Running mate: Sade Salisu
* Imran Jaafaru Jino (People's Redemption Party)
** Running mate: Kabir Hassan Yaradua
* Ibrahim Babangida Zakari (Social Democratic Party)
** Running mate: Ibrahim Suleiman
* Ibrahim Tukur Saude Ingawa (Zenith Labour Party)
** Running mate: Auwalu Halliru

## Campaign

Post-primary analysis focused on the respective strengths of Radda and Lado but also noted the divides within the state APC that Radda had to contend with. As the general election campaign began in July and August, reporting also pointed out other potential factors like the strength of the APC's incumbency, APC members aggrieved by contentious party primaries, and Lado's southern origin along with the more prominent minor party nominees—Muhammad Nura Khalil (NNPP), Imrana Jino (PRP), and Ibrahim Zakkari (SDP). One of these factors—fallout from the APC primary, dominated much of the pre-campaign period as politicians like Khalil and Lado met with APC primary runner-up Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa and attempted to woo him into their parties; in response, the APC sent its vice presidential nominee Kashim Shettima and others to convince Inuwa to support Radda. However, the Shettima visit failed to prevent Inuwa's defection as he joined the PDP in mid-October with APC sources noting that the defection was likely to hurt the party in the general election. On the other hand, Lado also faced internal issues as a split emerged in the state PDP in early November as his camp attempted to remove state party chair Yusuf Salisu Majigiri, who's backed by former Governor Ibrahim Shema. Lado and his allies accused Salisu Majigiri of supporting the APC and journalists noted rumors that Salisu Majigiri planned to suspend Lado from the party. Although Lado was suspended, Salisu Majigiri claimed that he had already stepped down as party chairman due to his candidacy for the House of Representatives; in an attempt to avoid further rifts, acting party chairman Salisu Lawal Uli ended Lado's suspension but it was too late as Lado's faction claimed Magaji Lawal was the rightful party chairman. To worsen the situation for the PDP, Shema reportedly met with Radda in a move that fueled rumors that his bloc may tacitly support the APC nominee.
The PDP party crisis continued into the new year, as analysts labeled the scandals as actively hurtful to Lado's campaign by January 2023. In a Daily Trust article from mid-January, the crisis was labeled as the Lado's biggest issue while the largest problem of the Dikko Radda campaign was the unpopularity of incumbent APC administrations. The month also hosted two debates, the first one conducted by Media Trust Group on 14 January and attended by Dikko Radda, Khalil, Jino, Lado, and Zakari; while the second debate was organized by BBC Hausa on 22 January and only Dikko Radda, Khalil, Jino, and Lado were invited to participate. Held at the Local Government Service Commission in the city of Katsina, the BBC debate reviewed topics ranging from education to security. After the debates, the APC continued its attempts to woo Shema into the party, with the state government even withdrawing its corruption case against Shema in a move criticized as politically motivated.
The next month, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Katsina State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won 46.2% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 45.6% and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 6.6%. The result—considered a surprise as Katsina is Buhari's hame state, led to increased attention on the gubernatorial race. Campaign analysis in the wake of the presidential election from Vanguard noted that the APC had retained most downballot offices and appeared to be in a strong position. On the other hand, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Lado to win due to the presidential election results and Masari's unpopularity.

### Election debates

2022 Katsina State gubernatorial election debates :
| Date | Organisers | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  A Absent invitee |
| Date | Organisers | APC | NNPP | PRP | PDP | SDP | Other parties | Ref. |
| 14 January | Media Trust Group | P Dikko Radda | P Khalil | P Jino | P Lado | P Zakari | NI Multiple | |
| 22 January | BBC Hausa | P Dikko Radda | P Khalil | P Jino | P Lado | NI | NI Multiple | |

## Projections

| Source | Projection | Projection | As of |
| Africa Elects | Lean Lado | Lean Lado | 17 March 2023 |
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence | Lado | Lado | 2 March 2023 |

## Conduct
### Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election. Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.
* 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
* 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
* 9 June 2022 – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
* 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
* 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
* 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
* 16 March 2023 – Final day of the official campaign period

### Pre-election

Due to widespread insecurity in the state, civil society groups raised concern about the safe conduct of the election in heavily insecure areas.

## General election
### Results

2023 Katsina State gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | % |
| | A | Muhammad Bara'u Tanimu | |
| | AA | Garba Sani Dankani | |
| | ADP | Murtala Ahmed | |
| | ADC | Ibrahim Trader Aminu | |
| | APC | Dikko Umar Radda | |
| | BP | Kabir Kado | |
| | LP | Ibrahim Abu-Musawa | |
| | New Nigeria Peoples Party | Muhammad Nura Khalil | |
| | NRM | Ishaka Abdullahi | |
| | PDP | Garba Yakubu Lado | |
| | PRP | Imran Jaafaru Jino | |
| | SDP | Ibrahim Babangida Zakari | |
| | ZLP | Ibrahim Tukur Saude Ingawa | |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 100.00% |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | |

#### By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Umar Dikko Radda APC | Umar Dikko Radda APC | Garba Yakubu Lado PDP | Garba Yakubu Lado PDP | Others | Others | Total Valid Votes |
| Senatorial District | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Total Valid Votes |
| Katsina Central Senatorial District (Katsina Zone) | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Katsina North Senatorial District (Daura Zone) | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Katsina South Senatorial District (Funtua Zone) | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | 859,892 | 62.96% | 486,620 | 35.63% | 19,336 | 1.42% | 1,365,848 |

#### By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Umar Dikko Radda APC | Umar Dikko Radda APC | Garba Yakubu Lado PDP | Garba Yakubu Lado PDP | Others | Others | Total Valid Votes |
| Federal Constituency | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Total Valid Votes |
| Bakori/Danja Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Batagarawa/Charanchi/Rimi Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Batsari/Safana/Danmusa Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Bindawa/Mani Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Daura/Sandamu/Mai'Adua Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Dutsin-Ma/Kurfi Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Faskari/Kankara/Sabuwa Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Funtua/Dandume Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Jibia/Kaita Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Katsina Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ingawa/Kankia/Kusada Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Malumfashi/Kafur Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Mashi/Dutsi Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Matazu/Musawa Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Zango/Baure Federal Constituency | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | 859,892 | 62.96% | 486,620 | 35.63% | 19,336 | 1.42% | 1,365,848 |

#### By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.
| LGA | Umar Dikko Radda APC | Umar Dikko Radda APC | Garba Yakubu Lado PDP | Garba Yakubu Lado PDP | Others | Others | Total Valid Votes | Turnout Percentage |
| LGA | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Total Valid Votes | Turnout Percentage |
| Bakori | 29,892 | 58.81% | 19,592 | 38.55% | 1,340 | 2.64% | 50,824 | 41.07% |
| Batagarawa | 26,326 | 65.24% | 13,510 | 33.48% | 519 | 1.29% | 40,355 | 41.27% |
| Batsari | 20,053 | 65.12% | 10,247 | 33.27% | 496 | 1.61% | 30,796 | 29.48% |
| Baure | 32,802 | 64.45% | 17,888 | 35.15% | 204 | 0.40% | 50,894 | 46.36% |
| Bindawa | 28,997 | 68.54% | 12,165 | 28.76% | 1,143 | 2.70% | 42,305 | 48.34% |
| Charanchi | 20,782 | 72.98% | 7,539 | 26.48% | 154 | 0.54% | 28,475 | 41.61% |
| Dan Musa | 20,145 | 61.50% | 12,514 | 38.21% | 96 | 0.29% | 32,755 | 38.42% |
| Dandume | 23,710 | 60.62% | 14,792 | 37.82% | 613 | 1.57% | 39,115 | 42.16% |
| Danja | 28,040 | 62.90% | 16,302 | 36.57% | 236 | 0.53% | 44,578 | 43.96% |
| Daura | 26,548 | 70.70% | 10,689 | 28.47% | 312 | 0.83% | 37,549 | 39.31% |
| Dutsi | 15,631 | 64.81% | 8,419 | 34.91% | 69 | 0.29% | 24,119 | 37.53% |
| Dutsin-Ma | 14,328 | 59.55% | 14,328 | 35.74% | 1,890 | 4.71% | 40,096 | 36.63% |
| Faskari | 27,366 | 54.47% | 22,565 | 44.91% | 314 | 0.62% | 50,245 | 41.84% |
| Funtua | 31,924 | 60.69% | 19,849 | 37.74% | 828 | 1.57% | 52,601 | 36.20% |
| Ingawa | 22,080 | 63.21% | 12,255 | 35.09% | 594 | 1.70% | 34,929 | 41.44% |
| Jibia | 21,216 | 61.09% | 13,259 | 38.18% | 254 | 0.73% | 34,729 | 41.22% |
| Kafur | 42,660 | 68.94% | 18,733 | 30.27% | 489 | 0.79% | 61,882 | 45.03% |
| Kaita | 24,121 | 70.51% | 9,824 | 28.72% | 262 | 0.77% | 34,207 | 46.48% |
| Kankara | 21,652 | 43.38% | 27,984 | 56.07% | 276 | 0.55% | 49,912 | 37.32% |
| Kankia | 18,249 | 54.95% | 14,830 | 44.66% | 131 | 0.39% | 33,210 | 44.94% |
| Katsina | 47,241 | 59.81% | 28,982 | 36.69% | 2,768 | 3.50% | 78,991 | 27.41% |
| Kurfi | 18,750 | 59.43% | 10,545 | 33.42% | 2,254 | 7.15% | 31,549 | 44.81% |
| Kusada | 13,750 | 55.04% | 11,151 | 44.63% | 83 | 0.33% | 24,984 | 41.76% |
| Mai'Adua | 28,436 | 70.86% | 11,506 | 28.67% | 188 | 0.47% | 40,130 | 46.00% |
| Malumfashi | 43,522 | 62.88% | 24,676 | 35.65% | 1,021 | 1.48% | 69,219 | 40.48% |
| Mani | 29,678 | 64.03% | 16,180 | 34.91% | 489 | 1.06% | 46,347 | 41.70% |
| Mashi | 29,678 | 64.03% | 16,180 | 34.91% | 489 | 1.06% | 46,347 | 41.70% |
| Matazu | 18,363 | 63.39% | 10,551 | 36.42% | 56 | 0.19% | 28,970 | 41.99% |
| Musawa | 24,632 | % | 10,118 | % | N/A | % | N/A | 42.77% |
| Rimi | 28,202 | 66.16% | 13,823 | 32.43% | 604 | 1.42% | 42,629 | 45.16% |
| Sabuwa] | 16,224 | 57.88% | 11,340 | 40.46% | 467 | 1.67% | 28,031 | 40.16% |
| Safana | 15,417 | 59.00% | 10,450 | 40.00% | 262 | 1.00% | 26,129 | 32.04% |
| Sandamu | 21,055 | 66.34% | 10,641 | 33.53% | 42 | 0.13% | 31,738 | 42.85% |
| Zango | 19,757 | 65.15% | 10,477 | 34.55% | 90 | 0.30% | 30,324 | 41.86% |
| Totals | 859,892 | 62.96% | 486,620 | 35.63% | 19,336 | 1.42% | 1,365,848 | 39.79% |

#### Notes

* ↑ Bakori: Results were voided in six polling units due to violence.
* ↑ Batsari: Results were voided in one polling unit due to a bandit attack.
* ↑ Bindawa: Results were voided in two polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Charanchi: Results were voided in five polling units due to violence.
* ↑ Dan Musa: Results were voided in one polling unit due to overvoting.
* ↑ Danja: Results were voided in one registration area and one polling unit due to overvoting.
* ↑ Daura: Results were voided in one polling unit due to overvoting.
* ↑ Faskari: Results were voided in three polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Funtua: Results were voided in three polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Ingawa: Results were voided in four polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Kaita: Results were voided in one polling unit due to overvoting.
* ↑ Kankara: Results were voided in five polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Kankia: Results were voided in six polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Katsina: Results were voided in four polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Kurfi: Results were voided in five polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Kusada: Results were voided in two polling units, one due to overvoting and the other due to violence.
* ↑ Mai'Adua: Results were voided in two polling units due to violence.
* ↑ Malumfashi: The election was not held in four polling units.
* ↑ Mani: Results were voided in four polling units due to overvoting.
* ↑ Matazu: Results were voided in eleven polling units due to overvoting and violence.
* ↑ Rimi: Results were voided in two polling units due to violence.
* ↑ Sabuwa: Results were voided in five polling units due to overvoting, violence, and insecurity.
* ↑ Zango: Results were voided in one polling unit due to violence.