# 2015 Madeiran regional election

A regional election was held in Madeira on 29 March 2015, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election was the first in which the former President of the Region, Alberto João Jardim, was not on the ballot as he earlier stated that he would step down as President and leader of the PSD-Madeira in January 2015. On 29 December 2014, the PSD-Madeira elected Miguel Albuquerque as the new president of the party's regional section. After winning the presidency, Albuquerque stated that he would not assume the Presidency of the Government without an election, so Alberto João Jardim asked President Aníbal Cavaco Silva to dissolve the Parliament and call an election, which was scheduled for 29 March.
The campaign for the regional legislative election in Madeira ran from 15 to 27 March 2015.
The results showed that the Social Democrats were reelected for the 11th time in a row and, again, with an absolute majority of 24 seats, against the 25 seats won in 2011. The People's Party was again the second most voted party and the coalition between the Socialists and other smaller parties called Change suffered a huge defeat by winning fewer votes and seats compared to the combined total of the parties in 2011. Together for the People was the surprise of the election winning 10.3 percent of the vote and winning 5 seats. The Unitary Democratic Coalition increase their result by one MP and the Left Bloc returned to the regional parliament with 2 seats.
The turnout in these elections was the lowest ever, with 49.6 percent of voters casting a ballot.

## Background
### Leadership changes and challenges
#### Social Democratic Party

After 34 years of uninterrupted rule and without any challenges to his leadership within the party, Alberto João Jardim faced an internal challenge from the mayor of Funchal, Miguel Albuquerque. The leadership ballot was held on 2 November 2012 and, in a surprise result, Jardim just narrowly defeated Albuquerque by a 52 to 48 percent margin. The results were the following:
Ballot: 2 November 2012 :
| Candidate | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Alberto João Jardim | 1,786 | 52.1 |
| | Miguel Albuquerque | 1,644 | 47.9 |
| Blank/Invalid ballots | Blank/Invalid ballots | 43 | – |
| Turnout | Turnout | 3,473 | 90.00 |
| Source: ||||
Shortly after his narrow win in the party leadership ballot, Jardim announced that this would be his last term as leader and that he would abandon office in early 2015. In late 2014, a leadership ballot was called to elect Jardim's successor. Six candidates were in the race: Former mayor of Funchal, Miguel Albuquerque; João Cunha e Silva; Jaime Ramos; Miguel de Sousa, by then deputy Speaker of the Madeira regional parliament; Sérgio Marques, former member of Jardim's regional governments; and Manuel António Correia, by then regional secretary for Environment and Natural Resources. The first ballot was held on 19 December 2014 and a second one on 29 December 2014. Albuquerque was the most voted in the first round with 47 percent of the votes, and defeated Manuel António Correia by a 64 to 36 percent margin in the second round. The results were the following:
Ballot: 19 and 29 December 2014 :
| Candidate | Candidate | 1st round | 1st round | 2nd round | 2nd round |
| Candidate | Candidate | Votes | % | Votes | % |
| | Miguel Albuquerque | 2,992 | 47.2 | 3,949 | 64.1 |
| | Manuel António Correia | 1,819 | 28.7 | 2,216 | 35.9 |
| | João Cunha e Silva | 996 | 15.7 | | |
| | Sérgio Marques | 335 | 5.3 | | |
| | Miguel de Sousa | 144 | 2.3 | | |
| | Jaime Ramos | 47 | 0.7 | | |
| Blank/Invalid ballots | Blank/Invalid ballots | 64 | – | 67 | – |
| Turnout | Turnout | 6,397 | 89.29 | 6,232 | 87.00 |
| Source: ||||||

## Electoral system

The 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.

## Parties

The parties that contested the election, and their leaders, were:
* Change (PS-PTP-PAN-MPT), Victor Freitas
* Citizen Platform (PPM-PDA), Miguel Fonseca
* Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
* New Democracy Party (PND), Baltazar Aguiar
* Workers' Communist Party (PCTP/MRPP), Alexandre Caldeira
* Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada
* National Renovator Party (PNR), Álvaro Araújo
* People's Party (CDS–PP), José Manuel Rodrigues
* Social Democratic Party (PSD), Miguel Albuquerque
* Socialist Alternative Movement (MAS), José Carlos Gonçalves Jardim
* Together for the People (JPP), Filipe Sousa

## Opinion polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

### Opinion polls

| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Firm | PSD | CDS-PP | PS | PTP | CDU | PND | PAN | MPT | BE | JPP | Others | Lead |
| 29 March 2015 | Election results | 44.4 | 13.7 | 11.4 | w. PS | 5.5 | 2.1 | w. PS | w. PS | 3.8 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 30.6 |
| 21–23 Mar | Universidade Católica | 49.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | w. PS | 5.0 | 2.0 | w. PS | w. PS | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 31.0 |
| 16–18 Mar | Eurosondagem | 46.7 | 12.5 | 19.5 | w. PS | 4.8 | 1.6 | w. PS | w. PS | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 27.2 |
| 9–12 Mar | Eurosondagem | 43.3 | 11.1 | 22.5 | w. PS | 4.8 | 1.7 | w. PS | w. PS | 2.2 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 20.8 |
| 2015 ||||||||||||||
| 11–14 Nov | Eurosondagem | 33.1 | 16.9 | 26.6 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | Did not exist | 4.1 | 6.5 |
| 3–5 Nov | Eurosondagem | 30.9 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | Did not exist | 5.8 | 3.9 |
| 18–22 Jul | Eurosondagem | 32.1 | 17.9 | 22.6 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | Did not exist | 6.0 | 9.5 |
| 25 May 2014 | EP elections | 31.0 | w. PSD | 22.6 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 10.0 | 3.7 | Did not exist | 15.7 | 8.4 |
| 8–14 Jan | Eurosondagem | 33.9 | 20.1 | 25.5 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | Did not exist | 4.4 | 8.4 |
| 2014 ||||||||||||||
| 29 September 2013 | Local elections | 34.8 | 13.0 | 25.8 | 0.7 | 5.3 | — | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | | 17.2 | 9.0 |
| 2013 ||||||||||||||
| 24–25 May | Eurosondagem | 43.9 | 21.2 | 13.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | | 2.1 | 22.7 |
| 2012 ||||||||||||||
| 9 October 2011 | Election results | 48.6 | 17.6 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | | 2.6 | 31.0 |

### Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 24 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira.
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Firm | PSD | CDS-PP | PS | PTP | CDU | PND | PAN | MPT | BE | JPP | Others |
| 29 March 2015 | Election Results | 24 | 7 | 6 | w. PS | 2 | 1 | w. PS | w. PS | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 21–23 Mar | Universidade Católica | 23 / 27 | 4 / 6 | 8 / 10 | w. PS | 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 | w. PS | w. PS | 1 / 2 | 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 |
| 16–18 Mar | Eurosondagem | 24 / 25 | 6 / 7 | 10 / 11 | w. PS | 2 | 0 / 1 | w. PS | w. PS | 1 | 2 / 3 | 0 |
| 9–12 Mar | Eurosondagem | 22 / 23 | 5 / 6 | 11 / 12 | w. PS | 2 | 0 / 1 | w. PS | w. PS | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 2015 |||||||||||||
| 9 October 2011 | Election Results | 25 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Did not exist | 0 |

## Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.
| Turnout | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time | Time |
| Turnout | 12:00 | 12:00 | 12:00 | 16:00 | 16:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | 19:00 | 19:00 |
| Turnout | 2011 | 2015 | ± | 2011 | 2015 | ± | 2011 | 2015 | ± |
| Total | 23.47% | 17.21% | 6.26 pp | 43.46% | 37.48% | 5.98 pp | 57.38% | 49.58% | 7.80 pp |
| Sources ||||||||||

## Summary of votes and seats

Summary of the 29 March 2015 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results :
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs | MPs %/ votes % |
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | 2011 | 2015 | ± | % | ± | MPs %/ votes % |
| | Social Democratic | 56,574 | 44.36 | 4.2 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 51.06 | 2.1 | 1.15 |
| | People's | 17,488 | 13.71 | 3.9 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 14.89 | 4.3 | 1.09 |
| | Change Coalition | 14,573 | 11.43 | 11.0 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 12.77 | 10.6 | 1.12 |
| | Together for the People | 13,114 | 10.28 | — | — | 5 | — | 10.64 | — | 1.03 |
| | Unitary Democratic Coalition | 7,060 | 5.54 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4.25 | 2.1 | 0.77 |
| | Left Bloc | 4,849 | 3.80 | 2.1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4.25 | 4.3 | 1.12 |
| | New Democracy | 2,635 | 2.07 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.13 | 0.0 | 1.04 |
| | Portuguese Workers' Communist | 2,137 | 1.67 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | Socialist Alternative Movement | 1,715 | 1.34 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | National Renovator | 1,052 | 0.82 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| | Citizen Platform | 903 | 0.71 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 |
| Total valid | Total valid | 122,100 | 95.74 | 1.6 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 100.00 | 0.0 | — |
| Blank ballots | Blank ballots | 1,116 | 0.87 | 0.2 | | | | | | |
| Invalid ballots | Invalid ballots | 4,323 | 3.39 | 1.5 | | | | | | |
| Total | Total | 127,539 | 100.00 | | | | | | | |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | 257,232 | 49.58 | 7.8 | | | | | | |
| $^A$ Coalition between the PS, PTP, PAN and the MPT. The 11 seats from 2011 are the sum of PS, PTP, PAN and MPT seats. $^B$ Portuguese Communist Party (2 MPs) and "The Greens" (0 MPs) ran in coalition. $^C$ People's Monarchist Party (0 MPs) and Democratic Party of the Atlantic (0 MPs) ran in coalition. |||||||||||
| Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições |||||||||||
Vote share
PSD
44.36%
CDS-PP
13.71%
CM (PS-PTP-PAN-MPT)
11.43%
JPP
10.28%
CDU
5.54%
BE
3.80%
PND
2.07%
PCTP/MRPP
1.67%
MAS
1.34%
Others
1.53%
Blank/Invalid
4.26% :
Parliamentary seats
PSD
51.06%
CDS-PP
14.89%
CM (PS-PTP-PAN-MPT)
12.67%
JPP
10.64%
CDU
4.25%
BE
4.25%
PND
2.13% :

### Maps

* Most voted political force by municipality.