# 2015 Aragonese regional election

The 2015 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

## Overview
### Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).
The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
| 35 | Zaragoza |
| 18 | Huesca |
| 14 | Teruel |
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

### Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 21 June 2015.
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.
The Cortes of Aragon were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 18 June.

## Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.
Parliamentary composition in March 2015 :
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Legislators | Legislators |
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Seats | Total |
| | People's Parliamentary Group | | PP | 30 | 30 |
| | Socialist Parliamentary Group | | PSOE | 22 | 22 |
| | Aragonese Parliamentary Group | | PAR | 7 | 7 |
| | Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group | | CHA | 4 | 4 |
| | United Left of Aragon Parliamentary Group | | IU | 4 | 4 |

## Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. |
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Votes (%) | Seats | Gov. | Ref. |
| | PP | List People's Party (PP) | | Luisa Fernanda Rudi | Conservatism Christian democracy | 39.69% | 30 | Y | |
| | PSOE | List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | | Javier Lambán | Social democracy | 29.02% | 22 | N | |
| | PAR | List Aragonese Party (PAR) | | Arturo Aliaga | Regionalism Centrism | 9.15% | 7 | Y | |
| | CHA | List Aragonese Union (CHA) | | José Luis Soro | Aragonese nationalism Eco-socialism | 8.23% | 4 | N | |
| | IU | List United Left of Aragon (IU) – Communist Party of Aragon (PCE–A) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) – Open Left (IzAb) | | Patricia Luquin | Socialism Communism | 6.16% | 4 | N | |
| | UPyD | List Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | | José Luis Lajara | Social liberalism Radical centrism | 2.31% | 0 | N | |
| | Podemos | List We Can (Podemos) | | Pablo Echenique | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | New party | New party | N | |
| | C's | List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | | Susana Gaspar | Liberalism | New party | New party | N | |

## Campaign
### Election debates

2015 Aragonese regional election debates :
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited |
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | PP | PSOE | PAR | CHA | IU | UPyD | Podemos | Audience | Ref. |
| 11 May | Aragón TV | Pepe Quílez | P Rudi | P Lambán | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | 11.4% (59,000) | [15] [16] |
| 15 May | Aragón TV | Pepe Quílez | S Bermúdez | S Sada | P Aliaga | P Soro | P Luquin | P Lajara | P Echenique | 6.4% (31,000) | [17] [18] |

## Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

### Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

#### Color key

Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls  Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | Lead |
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | — | 66.3 | 27.5 21 | 21.4 18 | 6.9 6 | 4.6 2 | 4.2 1 | 0.9 0 | 20.6 14 | 9.4 5 | 6.1 |
| TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA | 24 May 2015 | ? | ? | 27.6 20/23 | 20.6 16/18 | 6.3 5/6 | 5.6 2/3 | 3.4 1/2 | – | 21.0 14/16 | 10.4 7/8 | 6.6 |
| GAD3/Antena 3 | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? 20/22 | ? 16/17 | ? 3/5 | ? 2/3 | ? 2 | – | ? 12/13 | ? 8/9 | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón | 17 May 2015 | 550 | ? | 30.2 23/24 | 25.1 19/20 | 6.1 4/5 | 5.7 2/3 | 5.5 2/3 | 1.0 0 | 11.2 8/9 | 12.5 7/8 | 5.1 |
| Metroscopia/El País | 4–5 May 2015 | 1,000 | 75.6 | 23.9 19 | 21.9 16 | 3.0 3 | 2.9 1 | 7.0 4 | – | 22.5 14 | 15.9 10 | 1.4 |
| Intercampo/Podemos | 15–30 Apr 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 24.0– 28.0 | 19.0– 20.0 | 3.0– 5.0 | 2.0– 4.0 | 1.0– 3.0 | 1.0– 2.0 | 23.0– 26.0 | 19.0– 20.0 | 1.0– 2.0 |
| GAD3/ABC | 20–29 Apr 2015 | 1,000 | ? | 28.4 19/22 | 21.1 15/16 | 4.6 3/4 | 3.9 2/3 | 5.3 2/3 | 0.8 0 | 15.7 10/12 | 16.2 11/12 | 7.3 |
| CIS | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | ? | 29.7 23/24 | 22.4 17 | 5.7 4 | 5.0 2 | 5.4 3 | 1.5 0 | 14.1 9 | 12.9 8/9 | 7.3 |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón | 6–17 Apr 2015 | 2,000 | ? | 28.0 19/22 | 20.9 15/18 | 8.3 4/7 | 7.2 3/4 | 5.0 1/2 | 0.9 0 | 14.9 11/14 | 11.3 7/11 | 7.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 20 Mar–9 Apr 2015 | 550 | ? | 30.8 23/24 | 26.4 20/21 | 6.8 4/5 | 6.3 2/3 | 4.3 1/2 | 1.1 0 | 11.5 8/9 | 10.4 7/8 | 4.4 |
| Llorente & Cuenca | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? 21/25 | ? 17/19 | ? 6/7 | ? 2/6 | ? 4/6 | ? 2 | ? 9/14 | – | ? |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | — | 45.7 | 27.9 (24) | 24.3 (21) | – | 4.5 (2) | 9.4 (7) | 8.5 (5) | 9.5 (7) | 2.9 (1) | 3.6 |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón | 10 Mar–3 Apr 2014 | 2,000 | 56.0 | 31.2 22/26 | 29.6 21/25 | 7.0 4/6 | 6.8 4/7 | 9.3 6/9 | 8.5 5/8 | – | – | 1.6 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? 27/28 | ? 21/22 | ? 6/7 | ? 6/7 | ? 6/7 | ? 0/2 | – | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 300 | ? | 36.3 28/29 | 27.1 21/22 | ? 6/7 | ? 4/5 | ? 4/5 | – | – | – | 9.2 |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón | 23 Apr 2013 | ? | 53.1 | 32.2 23/26 | 28.7 21/24 | 8.4 6/9 | 10.1 6/9 | 9.7 5/8 | 3.8 1/3 | – | – | 3.5 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | — | 71.0 | 47.7 (36) | 31.5 (23) | | | 10.5 (6) | 5.8 (2) | – | – | 16.2 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | — | 67.9 | 39.7 30 | 29.0 22 | 9.2 7 | 8.2 4 | 6.2 4 | 2.3 0 | – | – | 10.7 |

### Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | | | ? | N | Lead |
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | — | 18.5 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 13.8 | 6.3 | — | 31.7 | 4.1 |
| CIS | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 37.8 | 8.0 | 1.1 |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | — | 12.9 | 11.2 | – | 2.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | — | 53.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | — | 34.1 | 22.5 | | | 7.5 | 4.1 | – | – | — | 27.4 | 11.6 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | — | 27.2 | 19.8 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | – | – | — | 30.6 | 7.4 |

### Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | | | Other/ None | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | 18.4 | 17.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 25.8 | 0.8 |

### Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | | Other/ None | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | 29.5 | 25.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 38.9 | 4.4 |

### Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Rudi PP | Lambán PSOE | Aliaga PAR | Soro CHA | Luquin IU | Lajara UPyD | Echenique Podemos | Gaspar C's | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| CIS | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | 20.2 | 10.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 54.3 | 9.4 |

## Results
### Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Aragon election results → :
| Parties and alliances | Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Popular vote | Popular vote | Seats | Seats |
| Parties and alliances | Parties and alliances | Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− |
| | People's Party (PP) | 183,654 | 27.50 | –12.19 | 21 | –9 |
| | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 143,096 | 21.43 | –7.59 | 18 | –4 |
| | We Can (Podemos) | 137,325 | 20.56 | New | 14 | +14 |
| | Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 62,907 | 9.42 | New | 5 | +5 |
| | Aragonese Party (PAR) | 45,846 | 6.86 | –2.29 | 6 | –1 |
| | Aragonese Union (CHA) | 30,618 | 4.58 | –3.65 | 2 | –2 |
| | United Left of Aragon (IU) | 28,184 | 4.22 | –1.94 | 1 | –3 |
| | Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 5,708 | 0.85 | –1.46 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Blank Seats (EB) | 5,323 | 0.80 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 4,946 | 0.74 | +0.42 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Commitment with Aragon (CCA) | 2,844 | 0.43 | –0.12 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Equo (Equo) | 1,256 | 0.19 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) | 1,082 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA) | 648 | 0.10 | –0.04 | 0 | ±0 |
| | Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 616 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Aragonese Bloc (BAR) | 581 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| Blank ballots | Blank ballots | 13,224 | 1.98 | –1.21 | | |
| Total | Total | 667,858 | | | 67 | ±0 |
| Valid votes | Valid votes | 667,858 | 98.70 | +0.20 | | |
| Invalid votes | Invalid votes | 8,796 | 1.30 | –0.20 | | |
| Votes cast / turnout | Votes cast / turnout | 676,654 | 66.33 | –1.57 | | |
| Abstentions | Abstentions | 343,452 | 33.67 | +1.57 | | |
| Registered voters | Registered voters | 1,020,106 | | | | |
| Sources |||||||
Popular vote
PP
27.50%
PSOE
21.43%
Podemos
20.56%
C's
9.42%
PAR
6.86%
CHA
4.58%
IU
4.22%
Others
3.44%
Blank ballots
1.98% :
Seats
PP
31.34%
PSOE
26.87%
Podemos
20.90%
PAR
8.96%
C's
7.46%
CHA
2.99%
IU
1.49% :

### Distribution by constituency

| Constituency | PP | PP | PSOE | PSOE | Podemos | Podemos | C's | C's | PAR | PAR | CHA | CHA | IU | IU |
| Constituency | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S |
| Huesca | 26.2 | 5 | 26.4 | 6 | 18.6 | 4 | 8.4 | 1 | 9.2 | 2 | 3.1 | − | 3.3 | − |
| Teruel | 27.5 | 5 | 22.0 | 4 | 16.1 | 2 | 7.2 | 1 | 13.7 | 2 | 3.4 | − | 4.6 | − |
| Zaragoza | 27.8 | 11 | 20.1 | 8 | 21.7 | 8 | 10.0 | 3 | 5.2 | 2 | 5.1 | 2 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Total | 27.5 | 21 | 21.4 | 18 | 20.6 | 14 | 9.4 | 5 | 6.9 | 6 | 4.6 | 2 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Sources |||||||||||||||

## Aftermath

Investiture Javier Lambán (PSOE) :
| Ballot → | Ballot → | 3 July 2015 |
| Required majority → | Required majority → | 34 out of 67 Y |
| | Yes • PSOE (18) • Podemos (14) • CHA (2) • IU (1) | 35 / 67 |
| | No • PP (21) • PAR (6) • C's (5) | 32 / 67 |
| | Abstentions | 0 / 67 |
| | Absentees | 0 / 67 |
| Sources |||