# 2024 Montana gubernatorial election

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2024 :
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vte :
The 2024 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of Montana, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024. Incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Ryan Busse.
Though Montana has backed Republicans in every presidential election since 1996, the sparsely-populated Mountain state maintained a Democratic tendency at the state and U.S. Senate levels well through the 2010s. This was the first gubernatorial election since 1996 that a Republican was re-elected governor of Montana.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Greg Gianforte, incumbent governor (2021–present)
** Running mate: Kristen Juras, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present)

#### Eliminated in primary

* Tanner Smith, state representative (2023–present)
** Running mate: Randy Pinocci, member of the Montana Public Service Commission (2019–present)

### Endorsements
#### Organizations

* National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund
* Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Greg Gianforte (incumbent) Kristen Juras (incumbent) | 144,752 | 75.2% |
| | Republican | Tanner Smith Randy Pinocci | 47,747 | 24.8% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 192,499 | 100.0% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Ryan Busse, author and former vice president of sales at Kimber Manufacturing
** Running mate: Raph Graybill, former chief legal counsel to Governor Steve Bullock and nominee for Attorney General in 2020

#### Eliminated in primary

* Jim Hunt, attorney and candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2008
** Running mate: Jerry Driscoll, former executive secretary of the Montana AFL-CIO

#### Withdrawn

* Shawn White Wolf, perennial candidate

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Ryan Busse Raph Graybill | 69,184 | 70.9% |
| | Democratic | Jim Hunt Jerry Driscoll | 28,354 | 29.1% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 97,538 | 100.00% |

## Libertarian primary
### Candidates
#### Presumptive nominee

* Kaiser Leib, software engineer
** Running mate: Matt Campbell, transportation engineer

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R | June 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | July 14, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | June 4, 2024 |
| RCP | Likely R | July 13, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Safe R | July 12, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Solid R | August 17, 2024 |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Greg Gianforte (R) | Ryan Busse (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Montana State University | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | 760 (A) | ± 3.56% | 50% | 31% | 5% | 14% |
| The New York Times/Siena College | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 35% | – | 8% |
| The New York Times/Siena College | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 35% | – | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | September 29 – October 1, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.34% | 55% | 36% | 1% | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D) | August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 38% | – | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | August 18–20, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 53% | 34% | 4% | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 33% | 5% | 8% |
| SurveyUSA | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 30% | – | 18% |

### Results

2024 Montana gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Greg Gianforte (incumbent)Kristen Juras (incumbent) | 354,569 | 58.86% | +4.43% |
| | Democratic | Ryan BusseRaph Graybill | 232,644 | 38.62% | −2.94% |
| | Libertarian | Kaiser LeibMatt Campbell | 15,191 | 2.52% | −1.49% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 602,404 | 100.00% | N/A |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 612,423 | 76.57% | |
| Registered electors | Registered electors | Registered electors | 799,849 | | |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

### Results by county
#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Blaine (largest city: Chinook)
* Big Horn (largest city: Hardin)
* Lewis and Clark (largest city: Helena)
* Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)