# 2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota

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The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative for North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the U.S. Senate election, as well as other statewide, legislative, and local elections.
Though incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer announced on January 11, 2018 that he would run for re-election to a fourth term. He later expressed an intention to run for the United States Senate instead. On February 16, 2018, Cramer announced his Senate campaign.

## Republican primary

State Senator Tom Campbell stated that he intended to run for the U.S. Senate if Cramer ran for re-election, and to run for the U.S. House if Cramer did not run for re-election. Campbell declared for the seat following Cramer's run for Senate. However, on April 11, Campbell dropped out of the race to endorse Armstrong.

### Candidates
#### Nominated

* Kelly Armstrong, state senator

#### Declared

* Tiffany Abentroth, U.S. Marine Corps veteran
* Paul Schaffner, oil field employee

#### Withdrew

* Tom Campbell, state senator

#### Declined

* Kevin Cramer, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)
* Gary Emineth, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tiffany Abentroth | Kelly Armstrong | Tom Campbell | Julie Fedorchak | DuWayne Hendrickson | Undecided |
| Gravis Marketing | February 21–24, 2018 | 385 | ± 5.0% | 1% | 13% | 28% | 9% | 1% | 47% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Kelly Armstrong | 37,054 | 56.23 |
| | Republican | Tom Campbell (withdrawn) | 17,692 | 26.85 |
| | Republican | Tiffany Abentroth | 5,877 | 8.92 |
| | Republican | Paul Schaffner | 5,203 | 7.90 |
| | Republican | Write-Ins | 75 | 0.11 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 65,901 | 100.00 |

## Democratic-NPL primary

The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention on March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Mac Schneider. Although general election ballot access was actually controlled by a primary election to be held June 12, both other candidates decided to withdraw from the race, rather than challenge Schneider in the primary.

### Candidates
#### Endorsed

* Mac Schneider, former Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate

#### Withdrawn

* John Grabinger, state senator
* Ben Hanson, former state representative

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic–NPL | Mac Schneider | 33,545 | 99.78 |
| | Democratic–NPL | Write-Ins | 74 | 0.22 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 33,619 | 100.00 |

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| The Rothenberg Political Report | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | June 6, 2018 |

### Debates

| Host network/sponsors | Date | Link(s) | Participants | Participants |
| Host network/sponsors | Date | Link(s) | Mac Schneider (D) | Kelly Armstrong (R) |
| KFYR-TV | August 16, 2018 | | Invited | Invited |
| Prairie Public | September 11, 2018 | | Invited | Invited |
| KFGO | September 19, 2018 | | Invited | Invited |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kelly Armstrong (R) | Mac Schneider (D) | Other | Undecided |
| FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 789 LV | ± 3.0% | 55% | 33% | 2% | 10% |
| FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 52% | 32% | 3% | 12% |
| Strategic Research Associates | October 12–19, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 56% | 35% | – | 9% |
| FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 704 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 34% | 2% | 12% |
| FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 801 V | ± 3.5% | 49% | 33% | 2% | 14% |
| Strategic Research Associates | September 17–27, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 55% | 31% | – | 14% |
| FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 701 LV | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 2% | 15% |
| FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 804 V | ± 3.5% | 47% | 32% | 2% | 17% |
| Axis Research (R-Armstrong) | August 26–28, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.5% | 53% | 32% | – | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon | June 13–15, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 35% | – | 19% |
| Axis Research (R-Armstrong) | May 13–14, 2018 | 509 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 26% | – | 26% |

### Results

North Dakota's at-large congressional district, 2018 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Kelly Armstrong | 193,568 | 60.20% | −8.93% |
| | Democratic–NPL | Mac Schneider | 114,377 | 35.57% | +11.82% |
| | Independent | Charles Tuttle | 13,066 | 4.06% | N/A |
| | n/a | Write-ins | 521 | 0.16% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 321,532 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Cass (largest city: Fargo)
* Grand Forks (largest city: Grand Forks)
* Benson (largest CDP: Fort Totten)
* Ransom (largest city: Lisbon)
* Steele (largest city: Finley)