# 2023 Warrandyte state by-election

The 2023 Warrandyte state by-election was held on 26 August 2023 to elect the next member for Warrandyte in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, following the resignation of Liberal MP Ryan Smith.

## Background

The electoral district of Warrandyte was established in 1976 and has consistently been a safe seat for the Liberal Party except from 1982 to 1988 when it was held by Lou Hill of the Labor Party. According the 2021 Census, Warrandyte's median age is 43 with a weekly median household income of $2,134 while more than 37% of residents attaining a bachelor's degree or higher. The district is characterised by the southern banks of the Yarra River, rolling hills, lush greenery, and pockets of bushland.

### Resignation of Ryan Smith

Ryan Smith was first elected at the 2006 Victorian state election, replacing long-serving member Phil Honeywood who had held the seat since the 1988 election. Smith would continue to keep Warrandyte as a safe Liberal seat barring the 2018 and 2022 elections where it became marginal following the successes of the Australian Labor Party. Smith retained the seat at the 2022 election with a two-party-preferred vote of 54.2%, a slight swing from the previous election where there was a swing of over 7 per cent against him. Following the election of John Pesutto as leader, he was dropped from the shadow cabinet, having been a shadow minister under Matthew Guy and Michael O'Brien.
Smith announced his retirement in May 2023 after 16 years in parliament, with effect from 7 July. Smith did not tell leader John Pesutto of his resignation, with Pesutto instead learning about it through the media. He said that he had “become increasingly uncomfortable with the growing negative tone of politics, both internally and more broadly,” generally interpreted as Smith’s disquiet over Pesutto’s handling of the Moira Deeming-related leadership tensions that embroiled the Victorian Liberal Party in early and mid-2023.

## Candidates

Candidates are listed in the order they will appear on the ballot.

### Nominated candidates

| Party | Candidate | Background |
| Sustainable Australia | Jack Corcoran | Aged care volunteer and candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan at the 2022 state election |
| Liberal | Nicole Werner | Pentecostal youth pastor and candidate for Box Hill at the 2022 state election |
| Freedom | Greg Cheesman | Businessman and candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan at the 2022 state election |
| Democratic Labour | Cary De Wit | Roofing company manager and candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan at the 2022 state election |
| Independent | Wai Man Raymond Chow | Mathematician and radio broadcaster |
| Independent | Morgan Ranieri | Businessman |
| Victorian Socialists | Colleen Bolger | Attorney, trade unionist and candidate for Melbourne at the 2022 state election |
| Family First | Richard Griffith-Jones | Hotelier, anti-gender movement activist and candidate for Ringwood at the 2022 state election |
| Independent | Philip Jenkins | |
| Independent | Maya Tesa | Businesswoman; candidate at the 2023 Aston federal by-election and Liberal Democratic candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan at the 2022 state election |
| Greens | Tomas Lightbody | Deputy Mayor of Manningham |
| Independent | Alan Max Menadue | Defence contractor, candidate for Prahran at the 2022 state election |

### Liberal

The Liberal Party preselected Nicole Werner to run in the by-election. Werner stood as a candidate for Box Hill in 2022.
Nicole is a former Pentecostal youth pastor and charity business developer.
Eight other candidates also nominated for the Liberal Party preselection, including:
* Andrew Conlon, councillor for the City of Manningham
* Antonietta di Cosmo, electorate officer for Smith
* David Farrelly, candidate for Pakenham in 2022
* Maxwell Gratton, candidate for Ivanhoe in 2006
* Jason McClintock, candidate for Eltham in 2022
* Sarah Overton, a director for professional services firm KPMG
* John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs
* Jemma Townson, former electorate officer for Katie Allen and Matthew Guy
* Allison Troth, former electorate officer for John Howard
There was also speculation that Tim Smith, the former MP for Kew would stand for preselection but no nominations were received on the cutoff date of 7 June 2023. Other speculated candidates for included 2022 candidates Lucas Moon (Richmond) and Cynthia Watson (Ringwood) as well as Caroline Inge, federal vice-president of the Liberal Party.

### Labor

On 26 July 2023, it was reported that the Victorian Labor Party would not contest the by-election to instead focus their resources for the 2026 Victorian state election. In the 2022 state election, the Labor Party ran Naomi Oakley who received 33.16% of the primary vote.

### Greens

Tomas Lightbody is running as the Greens' candidate in the by-election. Lightbody was elected to Manningham City Council at the age of 22 and has since been elected as Deputy Mayor of Manningham council.

### Other

Maya Tesa stood as an independent. She has previously run in the Aston federal by-election where she received 7% of the primary vote and as a candidate for the LDP in Jagajaga and the North-Eastern Metropolitan Region in 2022.
Victorian Socialists candidate Colleen Bolger is calling for a rent freeze. Greg Cheesman is running with the Freedom Party of Victoria.
Family First Party candidate Richard Griffith-Jones has promised to introduce if elected legislation to ban drag queen storytime in public venues.
Raymond Hoser, a Snake Catcher and Whistleblower, announced his intention to run as an independent candidate, however this did not materialise.

### Historical two-party-preferred vote

Two-party-preferred vote in Warrandyte, 1996–2022 :
| Election | Election | 1996 | 1999 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 |
| | Liberal | 63.90% | 63.50% | 56.30% | 59.00% | 63.87% | 61.60% | 53.88% | 54.20% |
| | Labor | 36.10% | 36.50% | 43.70% | 41.00% | 36.13% | 38.40% | 46.12% | 45.80% |
| Government | Government | L/NP | ALP | ALP | ALP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | ALP |

### Previous election results

2022 Victorian state election: Warrandyte :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Liberal | Ryan Smith | 21,344 | 47.3 | −2.8 |
| | Labor | Naomi Oakley | 14,946 | 33.2 | −2.3 |
| | Greens | Deepak Joshi | 5,283 | 11.7 | +1.1 |
| | Family First | Richard Vernay | 1,823 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| | Animal Justice | Nicola Rae | 1,020 | 2.3 | −1.5 |
| | Independent | Cynthia Pilli | 659 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Total formal votes | Total formal votes | Total formal votes | 45,075 | 96.6 | +1.5 |
| Informal votes | Informal votes | Informal votes | 1,582 | 3.4 | −1.5 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 46,657 | 91.6 | +1.1 |
| Two-party-preferred result ||||||
| | Liberal | Ryan Smith | 24,482 | 54.3 | +0.5 |
| | Labor | Naomi Oakley | 20,593 | 45.7 | −0.5 |
| | Liberal hold | Liberal hold | Swing | +0.5 | |

## Results

2023 Warrandyte state by-election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Liberal | Nicole Werner | 21,921 | 57.3 | +9.9 |
| | Greens | Tomas Lightbody | 7,130 | 18.6 | +6.9 |
| | Democratic Labour | Cary de Wit | 2,204 | 5.8 | +5.8 |
| | Independent | Maya Tesa | 1,556 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| | Victorian Socialists | Colleen Bolger | 1,459 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| | Family First | Richard Griffith-Jones | 1,073 | 2.8 | −1.2 |
| | Sustainable Australia | Jack Corcoran | 1,030 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| | Freedom | Greg Cheesman | 846 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| | Independent | Wai Man Raymond Chow | 694 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| | Independent | Morgan Ranieri | 168 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| | Independent | Alan Max Menadue | 121 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| | Independent | Philip Jenkins | 77 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Total formal votes | Total formal votes | Total formal votes | 38,279 | 94.2 | −2.4 |
| Informal votes | Informal votes | Informal votes | 2,344 | 5.8 | +2.4 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 40,623 | 79.7 | −11.9 |
| Two-candidate-preferred result ||||||
| | Liberal | Nicole Werner | 27,334 | 71.0 | +16.7 |
| | Greens | Tomas Lightbody | 11,172 | 29.0 | +29.0 |
| | Liberal hold | Liberal hold | | | |