# 2002 Arizona gubernatorial election

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The 2002 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican governor Jane Dee Hull was term-limited. The Democratic nominee, Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano, narrowly defeated Republican Matt Salmon, a former U.S. Representative. Upon her inauguration, Napolitano became the first woman to succeed another woman as governor of a state. Until 2022, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona in which the margin of victory was single-digit.

## Republican primary
### Candidates

* Betsey Bayless, Secretary of State of Arizona
* Matt Salmon, former U.S. representative
* Carol Springer, State Treasurer of Arizona

### Declined to run

* Dan Quayle, former vice president and Indiana senator

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Matt Salmon | 174,055 | 55.99% |
| | Republican | Betsey Bayless | 92,473 | 29.75% |
| | Republican | Carol Springer | 44,333 | 14.26% |
| | Republican | Steve Moore (write-in) | 16 | 0.01% |
| | Republican | Diana Kennedy (write-in) | 8 | 0.00% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 310,885 | 100.00% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates

* Alfredo Gutierrez, State Senator
* Janet Napolitano, Attorney General of Arizona and former U.S. Attorney
* Mike Newcomb, physician
* Mark Osterloh, perennial candidate

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Janet Napolitano | 128,702 | 57.23% |
| | Democratic | Alfredo Gutierrez | 50,377 | 22.40% |
| | Democratic | Mark Osterloh | 31,422 | 13.97% |
| | Democratic | Mike Newcomb | 14,373 | 6.39% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 224,874 | 100.00% |

## Libertarian primary
### Candidates

* Gary Fallon
* Barry Ness

### Results

Libertarian primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Libertarian | Barry Hess | 1,414 | 51.01% |
| | Libertarian | Gary Fallon | 1,358 | 48.99% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 2,772 | 100.00% |

## General election
### Debates

* Complete video of debate, October 30, 2002

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | October 31, 2002 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D (flip) | November 4, 2002 |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Janet Napolitano (D) | Matt Salmon (R) | Richard Mahoney (I) | Barry Hess (L) | Other / Undecided |
| SurveyUSA | October 29–31, 2002 | 661 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% |

### Results

The election was extremely close: Napolitano won by just 11,819 votes out of 1,226,111 cast, the closest gubernatorial election in Arizona in many years. Napolitano also won without carrying Maricopa County. Under Arizonan law, the losing candidate may request a recount, for which that candidate must pay, if the margin of victory is less than one percent but greater than half of one percent. In 2002, the margin of victory in 2002 was 1.0%, barely allowing a recount.
It soon became apparent that Napolitano had won the election and would be the next governor of Arizona. Salmon acknowledged that the chance of his prevailing in a recount was extremely small and decided not to ask for one (recounts seldom see a swing over 1,000 votes; he was losing by over 10,000). He officially called Napolitano on November 17 and congratulated her on her victory.
On November 20, Arizona Secretary of State Betsey Bayless certified the results of the election and declared Napolitano the governor-elect.
Arizona gubernatorial election, 2002 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Janet Napolitano | 566,284 | 46.19% | +10.66% |
| | Republican | Matt Salmon | 554,465 | 45.22% | −15.72% |
| | Independent | Richard D. Mahoney | 84,947 | 6.93% | |
| | Libertarian | Barry Hess | 20,356 | 1.66% | −1.01% |
| | Independent | Carlton Rahmani (write-in) | 29 | 0.00% | |
| | Independent | Tracey Sturgess (write-in) | 15 | 0.00% | |
| | Independent | Naida Axford (write-in) | 5 | 0.00% | |
| | Independent | Raymond Caplette (write-in) | 5 | 0.00% | |
| | Independent | D'Herrera Tapia (write-in) | 4 | 0.00% | |
| | Independent | L. D. Talbow (write-in) | 1 | 0.00% | |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 11,819 | 0.96% | |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,226,111 | 100.00% | |
| | Democratic gain from Republican | Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | +26.38% | |

### Results by county

| County | Janet Napolitano Democratic | Janet Napolitano Democratic | Matt Salmon Republican | Matt Salmon Republican | Richard D. Mahoney Independent | Richard D. Mahoney Independent | Barry Hess Libertarian | Barry Hess Libertarian | All others Write-in | All others Write-in | Margin | Margin | Total votes cast |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total votes cast |
| Apache | 10,927 | 61.22% | 4,041 | 22.64% | 2,516 | 14.10% | 365 | 2.04% | 1 | 0.01% | 6,886 | 38.58% | 17,850 |
| Cochise | 11,401 | 41.08% | 13,210 | 47.60% | 2,713 | 9.78% | 426 | 1.53% | 4 | 0.01% | -1,809 | -6.52% | 27,754 |
| Coconino | 18,928 | 54.89% | 11,585 | 33.59% | 3,260 | 9.45% | 709 | 2.06% | 3 | 0.01% | 7,343 | 21.29% | 34,485 |
| Gila | 7,331 | 47.44% | 6,336 | 41.00% | 1,467 | 9.49% | 317 | 2.05% | 1 | 0.01% | 995 | 6.44% | 15,452 |
| Graham | 2,924 | 36.64% | 4,491 | 56.27% | 467 | 5.85% | 99 | 1.24% | 0 | 0.00% | -1,567 | -19.63% | 7,981 |
| Greenlee | 966 | 44.91% | 955 | 44.40% | 180 | 8.37% | 50 | 2.32% | 0 | 0.00% | 11 | 0.51% | 2,151 |
| La Paz | 1,488 | 41.04% | 1,766 | 48.70% | 259 | 7.14% | 113 | 3.12% | 0 | 0.00% | -278 | -7.67% | 3,626 |
| Maricopa | 313,107 | 44.43% | 337,954 | 47.95% | 42,696 | 6.06% | 10,966 | 1.56% | 27 | 0.00% | -24,847 | -3.53% | 704,750 |
| Mohave | 13,227 | 37.59% | 18,431 | 52.38% | 2,889 | 8.21% | 639 | 1.82% | 0 | 0.00% | -5,204 | -14.79% | 35,186 |
| Navajo | 11,669 | 49.74% | 9,423 | 40.17% | 1,920 | 8.18% | 444 | 1.89% | 2 | 0.01% | 2,246 | 9.57% | 23,458 |
| Pima | 118,896 | 51.74% | 89,002 | 38.73% | 17,751 | 7.72% | 4,140 | 1.80% | 14 | 0.01% | 29,894 | 13.01% | 229,803 |
| Pinal | 18,300 | 48.13% | 16,380 | 43.08% | 2,658 | 6.99% | 682 | 1.79% | 3 | 0.01% | 1,920 | 5.05% | 38,023 |
| Santa Cruz | 3,675 | 57.93% | 2,069 | 32.61% | 495 | 7.80% | 105 | 1.66% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,606 | 25.32% | 6,344 |
| Yavapai | 23,238 | 40.50% | 28,245 | 49.23% | 4,866 | 8.48% | 1,024 | 1.78% | 3 | 0.01% | -5,007 | -8.73% | 57,376 |
| Yuma | 10,207 | 46.67% | 10,577 | 48.36% | 810 | 3.70% | 277 | 1.27% | 1 | 0.00% | -370 | -1.69% | 21,872 |
| Totals | 566,284 | 46.19% | 554,465 | 45.22% | 84,947 | 6.93% | 20,356 | 1.66% | 59 | 0.00% | 11,819 | 0.96% | 1,226,111 |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Coconino (largest municipality: Flagstaff)
* Gila (largest city: Payson)
* Greenlee (largest city: Clifton)
* Navajo (largest city: Show Low)
* Pima (largest municipality: Tucson)
* Pinal (largest city: San Tan Valley)
* Santa Cruz (largest municipality: Nogales)