# 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election

The 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly elections were held on 15 November 2020. Elections were held in 24 constituencies, each electing one member to the 3rd Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly. 330 candidates contested these elections, either representing one of the political parties of Gilgit-Baltistan (at the time of the 2020 elections) or being an independent candidate.
The elections were originally scheduled to be held on 18 August 2020, but were postponed in July due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely affected Gilgit-Baltistan.
The Pakistan Army was not called in to preside over the polls at the Election, with Mir Afzal, the Caretaker Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan, giving a statement that the caretaker government had the capacity to hold free, fair, and transparent elections in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Opinion polling taken before the election had shown the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), the ruling party prior to the 2020 election, being the third-most-popular political party in Gilgit-Baltistan, falling from its earlier position of making the province's government and having the largest vote-bank. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which ruled nationally, led in the polls and the Pakistan Peoples Party had been shown as the second-most-popular political party.
745,362 voters in Gilgit-Baltistan had the ability to exercise their right to vote in the elections and will be able to vote across nearly 1,234 polling places across the province. This showed an increase of 126,998 new voters since 2015, when only 618,364 people were registered to vote. 405,365 of the people registered to vote are male and 339,997 are female (which shows a gender gap of 9%).
The elections were postponed in the constituency GBA-3 (Gilgit-III), due to the PTI candidate in that constituency, who was the provincial party leader, dying of COVID-19 in early October. The election there were held on November 22, seven days after the election throughout the rest of Gilgit-Baltistan.
Preliminary and unofficial results showed the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf being all set to form the next government in Gilgit-Baltistan. They had won eleven general seats, Independent politicians had won seven seats, the Pakistan Peoples Party had won three seats, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) had won two seats, and the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen had won one seat.
In late November 2020, the final results revealed that the PTI won a two-thirds majority of seats (22 of 33). The PPP and PML-N won five and three seats, respectively.
Full results by districts were published on November 24. The latter two parties made claims of election fraud and supporters staged demonstrations to protest against the alleged rigging.

## Background
### 2015 elections

Following the elections in 2015, Pakistan Muslim League (N), emerged as the largest party winning 15 of the 24 general seats in the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly, and securing a supermajority in the assembly after the three technocrat (two who went to PML(N)) and six women representatives (four who went to PML(N)) were added with a final total of 21 out of 33 seats. Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman was elected as the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan.

## Timeline

* April 30, 2020: The Supreme Court of Pakistan allows the federal government to form a caretaker government in late June 2020 and hold a general election in Gilgit-Baltistan less than sixty days after the formation of the caretaker government.
* June 24, 2020: The members of the second assembly of Gilgit-Baltistan complete their full five-year terms and the assembly is dissolved. Mir Afzal is sworn in as the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan, serving as a caretaker.
* June 27, 2020: The President of Pakistan, Dr. Arif Alvi releases a statement scheduling the date August 18, 2020 to be the date of polling in the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election.
* July 2, 2020: An election schedule is issued by the Gilgit-Baltistan Election Commission confirming August 18, 2020 to be the date of polling.
* July 11, 2020: The Gilgit-Baltistan Election Commission postpones the upcoming election and suspends the previously published schedule in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. New dates of polling in October 2020 are deliberated upon.
* September 23, 2020: The President of Pakistan, Dr. Arif Alvi gives approval to the proposed polling date of November 15, 2020 for the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election.
* September 24, 2020: A detailed election schedule is issued by the Gilgit-Baltistan Election Commission confirming the new date of polling, November 15, 2020.
* October 3, 2020: The Caretaker Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan Mir Afzal states that the Pakistan military's help will not be required in holding free and fair elections throughout Gilgit-Baltistan.
* October 19, 2020: The final revised list of the candidates running in each constituency is published by the Election Commission of Gilgit-Baltistan.
* October 20, 2020: Election Symbols are allotted to political parties and candidates.
* November 13, 2020: Official electoral rolls and lists of polling stations are released.
* November 15, 2020: Elections held in all general seats of Gilgit-Baltistan except GBA-3 (Gilgit-III).
* November 22, 2020: Election held in GBA-3 (Gilgit-III).
* November 24, 2020: Final results are revealed.

## Parties

The table below lists the ten political parties that fielded at least three candidates (out of a possible 24 constituencies) or won at least one assembly seat in the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election, and gives a detailed overview of their characteristics. Parties are initially ordered by their voteshare in the 2015 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly Election.
| Name | Name | National Leader | Claimed Ideology(ies) | Voteshare in 2015 | General Assembly Seats won in the 2015 election | Total seats in the 2nd Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly | Total seats in the 3rd Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly | Symbol |
| PML(N) | Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز) | Shehbaz Sharif | Conservatism Economic liberalism Federalism | 34.17% | 15 / 24 | 21 / 33 | 3 / 33 | Tiger |
| PPP | Pakistan Peoples Party پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی | Bilawal Bhutto Zardari | Social Democracy Secularism Social liberalism | 18.26% | 1 / 24 | 1 / 33 | 5 / 33 | Arrow |
| PTI | Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف | Imran Khan | Populism Islamic Democracy Welfarism | 11.11% | 1 / 24 | 1 / 33 | 22 / 33 | Bat |
| MWM | Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen مجلس وحدتِ مسلمین | Allama Raja Nasir Abbas | Pan-Islamism Welfarism Populism | 10.50% | 2 / 24 | 3 / 33 | 1 / 33 | Tent |
| ITP | Islami Tehreek Pakistan اسلامی تحریک پاکستان | Syed Sajid Ali Naqvi | Pan-Islamism | 4.88% | 2 / 24 | 3 / 33 | 0 / 33 | Two Swords |
| JUI(F) | Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl) جمیعت علمائے اسلام (فضل) | Fazl-ur-Rahman | Islamism Clericalism Conservatism | 2.94% | 1 / 24 | 3 / 33 | 1 / 33 | Book |
| BNF | Balawaristan National Front (Naji) بلاورستان نيشنل فرنٹ (ناجی) | Nawaz Khan Naji | Gilgit-Baltistan Autonomy | 1.39% | 1 / 24 | 1 / 33 | 1 / 33 | Revolver |
| APML | All Pakistan Muslim League آل پاکستان مسلم لیگ | Pervez Musharraf | Pakistani Nationalism Islamic Democracy Atlanticism | 1.18% | 0 / 24 | 0 / 33 | 0 / 33 | Eagle |
| MQM(P) | Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Pakistan) (متحدہ قومی موومنٹ (پاکستان | Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui | Liberalism Muhajir Nationalism Secularism | 0.16% | 0 / 24 | 0 / 33 | 0 / 33 | Kite |
| PSP | Pak Sarzameen Party پاک سرزمین پارٹی | Syed Mustafa Kamal | Pakistani Nationalism | Did Not Contest 2015 Elections | Did Not Contest 2015 Elections | Did Not Contest 2015 Elections | 0 / 33 | Dolphin |
| PML(Q) | Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam) پاکستان مسلم لیگ (قائد اعظم) | Shujaat Hussain | Conservatism Pakistani Nationalism | Did Not Contest 2015 Elections | Did Not Contest 2015 Elections | Did Not Contest 2015 Elections | 0 / 33 | Tractor |

## Opinion Polls

In the run up to the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan elections, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Gilgit-Baltistan. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 8 June 2015, to the present day.

### Voting Intention

The table below shows the results of polls taken which asked the people of Gilgit-Baltistan which political party they would vote for in the 2020 election.
| Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | PML(N) | PPP | PTI | JUI(F) | Indep. | Other | Lead | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method |
| Pulse Consultant | 8 November 2020 | HTML | 14% | 26% | 35% | 4% | 12% | 9% | +9% | N/A | 1,423 | Field Interviews |
| Gallup Pakistan | 6 November 2020 | HTML | 14% | 24% | 27% | 4% | 12% | 19% | +3% | ±2-3% | ~1,000 | Unknown |
| 2015 Election | 8 June 2015 | ECGB | 34.17% | 18.40% | 11.11% | 4.45% | 31.87% | 31.87% | +15.77% | N/A | 379,032 | Final Election Results |

## Results

The two tables below show the results of the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly Election by Political Party. The first table shows the results for the elections provincewide, through all 24 constituencies, and shows each political party's standing. The second table shows more detailed results for each of the 24 general constituencies.
On November 24, 2020, full results were published on the official Pakistani elections sites. PTI received 10 additional seats, earning it a historic two-thirds majority in the Assembly. Independent candidates won 7 seats; Six of the independent candidates joined PTI after the election and the party already had a seat adjustment arrangement with the MWM. PPP got one seat reserved for women and one seat reserved for technocrats, whereas PMLN only got one reserved seat for women. The PPP party refused to accept the results and claimed election fraud.

### Provincewide

Seats :
| Party | Party | Votes | % | General | Women | Technocrats | Total | +/– |
| | Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf | | | 16 | 4 | 2 | 22 | +21 |
| | Pakistan Peoples Party | | | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +4 |
| | Pakistan Muslim League (N) | | | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | –18 |
| | Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen | | | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | –2 |
| | All Pakistan Muslim League | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Islami Tehreek Pakistan | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | –4 |
| | Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) | | | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| | Muttahida Qaumi Movement–Pakistan | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Pakistan Muslim League (Q) | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Pak Sarzameen Party | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Balawaristan National Front (Naji) | | | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| | Independents | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | Total | | | 24 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | 745,362 | – | | | | | |

### By Constituency

| Constituency | Constituency | Winner | Winner | Winner | Winner | Runner-up | Runner-up | Runner-up | Runner-up | Margin | Registered Voters | Votes Cast | Voter Turnout |
| District | Name | Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Margin | Registered Voters | Votes Cast | Voter Turnout |
| Gilgit | GBA-1 | Amjad Hussain Azar | PPP | 11,178 | | Sultan Rais | IND | 8,356 | | 2,822 | 35,992 | | |
| Gilgit | GBA-2 | Fatehullah Khan | PTI | 6,698 | 27.16% | Jamil Ahmed | PPP | 6,694 | 27.14% | 4 | 41,108 | 24,661 | 60.00% |
| Gilgit | GBA-3 | Syed Sohail Abbas Shah | PTI | 6,873 | | Muhammad Iqbal | IND | 4,678 | | 2,195 | 41,360 | 26,461 | 63.98% |
| Nagar | GBA-4 | Amjad Hussain Azar | PPP | 4,716 | | Muhammad Ayub | ITP | 4,291 | | 425 | 23,171 | 14,837 | 64.03% |
| Nagar | GBA-5 | Javed Ali Manwa | IND | 2,570 | | Rizwan Ali | MWM | 1,850 | | 720 | 14,001 | | |
| Hunza | GBA-6 | Abaid Ullah Baig | PTI | 5,710 | | Noor Muhammad | IND | 4,683 | | 2,014 | 43,603 | 23,060 | 52.89% |
| Skardu | GBA-7 | Raja Muhammad Zakaria Khan Maqpoon | PTI | 5,565 | | Syed Mehdi Shah | PPP | 4,113 | | 1,452 | 17,127 | | |
| Skardu | GBA-8 | Muhammad Kazim Maisam | MWM | 7,842 | 35.35% | Syed M. Ali Shah | PPP | 6,904 | 31.12% | 938 | 39,567 | 22,182 | 56.06% |
| Skardu | GBA-9 | Wazir Muhammad Saleem | IND | 6,286 | | Fida Muhammad Nashad | PTI | 5,187 | | 1,099 | 25,562 | | |
| Skardu | GBA-10 | Raja Nasir Ali Khan Maqpoon | IND | 4,811 | 27.18% | Wazir Hassan | PTI | 3,439 | 19.43% | 1,372 | 26,839 | 17,702 | 65.96% |
| Kharmang | GBA-11 | Syed Amjad Ali Zaidi | PTI | 5,733 | | Syed Muhsin Rizvi | IND | 2,016 | | 3,717 | 26,869 | | |
| Shigar | GBA-12 | Raja Azam Khan Amacha | PTI | 10,674 | | Imran Nadeem | PPP | 8,886 | | 1,788 | 36,183 | 24,804 | 68.55% |
| Astore | GBA-13 | Muhammad Khalid Khurshid Khan | PTI | 4,836 | | Abdul Hamid Khan | PPP | 3,117 | | 1,719 | 33,378 | 16,298 | 48.83% |
| Astore | GBA-14 | Shamsul Haq | PTI | 5,354 | | Muzaffar Ali | PPP | 3,473 | | 1,881 | 29,023 | 15,513 | 53.45% |
| Diamer | GBA-15 | Shah Baig | IND | 2,713 | | Muhammad Dilpazir | IND | 2,309 | | 404 | 35,185 | 22,237 | 63.20% |
| Diamer | GBA-16 | Muhammad Anwar | PML(N) | 4,813 | | Attaullah | IND | 2,576 | | 2,237 | 35,405 | 21,458 | 60.61% |
| Tangir | GBA-17 | Rehmat Khaliq | JUI(F) | 5,389 | | Haider Khan | PTI | 5,126 | | 263 | 29,955 | 12,870 | 42.96% |
| Darel | GBA-18 | Gulbar Khan | PTI | 6,793 | | Malik Kifayat Ur Rehman | IND | 5,986 | | 807 | 18,907 | 9,669 | 51.14% |
| Ghizer | GBA-19 | Nawaz Khan Naji | BNF(N) | 6,208 | | Pir Jalal Ali Shah | PPP | 4,967 | | 1,241 | 37,808 | | |
| Ghizer | GBA-21 | Ghulam Muhammad | PML(N) | 4,334 | | M. Ayub Shah | PPP | 3,430 | | 904 | 34,973 | 20,053 | 57.34% |
| Gupis-Yasin | GBA-20 | Nazir Ahmed | PTI | 5,592 | | Khan Akbar Khan | PML(Q) | 3,815 | | 1,777 | 42,533 | | |
| Ghanche | GBA-22 | Mushtaq Hussain | IND | 6,051 | | M. Ibrahim Sanai | PTI | 4,945 | | 1,106 | 29,104 | 17,169 | 58.99% |
| Ghanche | GBA-23 | Abdul Hameed | IND | 3,666 | | Amina Ansari | PTI | 3,296 | | 370 | 27,522 | 15,393 | 55.93% |
| Ghanche | GBA-24 | Engr Mohammad Ismail | PPP | 6,239 | | Syed Shamsuddin | PTI | 5,361 | | 845 | 20,187 | 12,251 | 60.69% |