# List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election

The 2024 general election was held on 4 July 2024. This list shows the most marginal seats, ie those needing the smallest swing to be won by each of the political parties, according to notional results from the previous election in 2019, as applied to the 2024 constituency boundaries. The term "target seats" is sometimes used to describe seats requiring a low swing, but it is also used to refer to the seats on which a party has chosen to "target" its campaigning. The list of a party's target seats is not made public.
Owing to boundary changes following the 2023 review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019.

## List by party
### Conservative

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Conservatives :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Warrington South | Labour Party | 0.06% | Labour Party |
| 2 | Coventry North West | Labour Party | 0.22% | Labour Party |
| 3 | Kensington and Bayswater | Labour Party | 0.36% | Labour Party |
| 4 | Alyn and Deeside | Labour Party | 0.39% | Labour Party |
| 5 | Wirral West | Labour Party | 0.41% | Labour Party |
| 6 | Beckenham and Penge | Labour Party | 0.52% | Labour Party |
| 7 | Heywood and Middleton North | Labour Party | 0.80% | Labour Party |
| 8 | Dagenham and Rainham | Labour Party | 0.80% | Labour Party |
| 9 | Coventry South | Labour Party | 0.86% | Labour Party |
| 10 | Warwick and Leamington | Labour Party | 1.12% | Labour Party |
| 11 | Bedford | Labour Party | 1.19% | Labour Party |
| 12 | Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | Labour Party | 1.31% | Labour Party |
| 13 | Doncaster Central | Labour Party | 1.38% | Labour Party |
| 14 | Ceredigion Preseli | Plaid Cymru | 1.40% | Plaid Cymru |
| 15 | Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | Labour Party | 1.55% | Labour Party |
| 16 | Chesterfield | Labour Party | 1.61% | Labour Party |
| 17 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Labour Party | 1.62% | Labour Party |
| 18 | Warrington North | Labour Party | 1.63% | Labour Party |
| 19 | Canterbury | Labour Party | 1.89% | Labour Party |
| 20 | Halifax | Labour Party | 1.99% | Labour Party |
| 21 | Newport West and Islwyn | Labour Party | 2.06% | Labour Party |
| 22 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Scottish National Party | 2.09% | Scottish National Party |
| 23 | Cramlington and Killingworth | Labour Party | 2.24% | Labour Party |
| 24 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Scottish National Party | 2.50% | Labour Party |
| 25 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Scottish National Party | 2.56% | Scottish National Party |
| 26 | Doncaster North | Labour Party | 2.58% | Labour Party |
| 27 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Labour Party | 2.89% | Labour Party |
| 28 | Gower | Labour Party | 2.93% | Labour Party |
| 29 | Leeds East | Labour Party | 3.06% | Labour Party |
| 30 | Leeds West and Pudsey | Labour Party | 3.09% | Labour Party |
| 31 | Wolverhampton South East | Labour Party | 3.10% | Labour Party |
| 32 | Tynemouth | Labour Party | 3.26% | Labour Party |
| 33 | Bradford South | Labour Party | 3.34% | Labour Party |
| 34 | Croydon East | Labour Party | 3.37% | Labour Party |
| 35 | Sunderland Central | Labour Party | 3.41% | Labour Party |
| 36 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Labour Party | 3.48% | Labour Party |
| 37 | Lothian East | Scottish National Party | 3.62% | Labour Party |
| 38 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Labour Party | 3.65% | Labour Party |
| 39 | Kingston upon Hull East | Labour Party | 3.67% | Labour Party |
Other seats gained and lost in by-elections :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | Winning party 2024 |
| 46 | Hartlepool | | Labour Party | 4.38% | | Labour Party |
| – | Mid Bedfordshire | | Conservative Party | – | | Conservative Party |

### Labour

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Labour :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Burnley | Conservative Party | 0.13% | Labour Party |
| 2 | Leigh and Atherton | Conservative Party | 0.33% | Labour Party |
| 3 | High Peak | Conservative Party | 0.54% | Labour Party |
| 4 | Bangor Aberconwy | Conservative Party | 0.77% | Labour Party |
| 5 | Wolverhampton West | Conservative Party | 0.92% | Labour Party |
| 6 | Bury South | Conservative Party | 0.94% | Labour Party |
| 7 | Bury North | Conservative Party | 1.20% | Labour Party |
| 8 | Bolton North East | Conservative Party | 1.28% | Labour Party |
| 9 | Watford | Conservative Party | 1.35% | Labour Party |
| 10 | Chingford and Woodford Green | Conservative Party | 1.47% | Conservative Party |
| 11 | Wycombe | Conservative Party | 1.58% | Labour Party |
| 12 | Birmingham Northfield | Conservative Party | 1.68% | Labour Party |
| 13 | Leeds North West | Conservative Party | 1.80% | Labour Party |
| 14 | Stroud | Conservative Party | 2.03% | Labour Party |
| 15 | Keighley and Ilkley | Conservative Party | 2.11% | Conservative Party |
| 16 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Conservative Party | 2.11% | Labour Party |
| 17 | Lothian East | Scottish National Party | 2.15% | Labour Party |
| 18 | Whitehaven and Workington | Conservative Party | 2.17% | Labour Party |
| 19 | Gedling | Conservative Party | 2.22% | Labour Party |
| 20 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Conservative Party | 2.40% | Labour Party |
| 21 | Peterborough | Conservative Party | 2.47% | Labour Party |
| 22 | Vale of Glamorgan | Conservative Party | 2.57% | Labour Party |
| 23 | West Bromwich | Conservative Party | 2.60% | Labour Party |
| 24 | Mid Cheshire | Conservative Party | 2.66% | Labour Party |
| 25 | Wakefield and Rothwell | Conservative Party | 2.67% | Labour Party |
| 26 | Ynys Mon | Conservative Party | 2.69% | Plaid Cymru |
| 27 | Derby North | Conservative Party | 2.70% | Labour Party |
| 28 | Bridgend | Conservative Party | 2.73% | Labour Party |
| 29 | Clwyd North | Conservative Party | 2.76% | Labour Party |
| 30 | Lancaster and Wyre | Conservative Party | 3.05% | Labour Party |
| 31 | Hastings and Rye | Conservative Party | 3.36% | Labour Party |
| 32 | Eltham and Chislehurst | Conservative Party | 3.37% | Labour Party |
| 33 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Scottish National Party | 3.41% | Labour Party |
| 34 | Lincoln | Conservative Party | 3.47% | Labour Party |
| 35 | Hyndburn | Conservative Party | 3.48% | Labour Party |
| 36 | Broxtowe | Conservative Party | 3.58% | Labour Party |
| 37 | Chipping Barnet | Conservative Party | 3.60% | Labour Party |
| 38 | Northampton North | Conservative Party | 3.85% | Labour Party |
| 39 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Conservative Party | 3.93% | Labour Party |
| 40 | Hendon | Conservative Party | 4.01% | Labour Party |
| 41 | Truro and Falmouth | Conservative Party | 4.04% | Labour Party |
| 42 | Wrexham | Conservative Party | 4.18% | Labour Party |
| 43 | Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | Conservative Party | 4.35% | Labour Party |
| 44 | Blackpool South | Conservative Party | 4.36% | Labour Party |
| 45 | Calder Valley | Conservative Party | 4.52% | Labour Party |
| 46 | Southampton Itchen | Conservative Party | 4.70% | Labour Party |
| 47 | Milton Keynes Central | Conservative Party | 4.70% | Labour Party |
| 48 | Clwyd East | Conservative Party | 5.00% | Labour Party |
| 49 | Glasgow North East | Scottish National Party | 5.01% | Labour Party |
| 50 | Darlington | Conservative Party | 5.36% | Labour Party |
| 51 | Redcar | Conservative Party | 5.45% | Labour Party |
| 52 | Ipswich | Conservative Party | 5.53% | Labour Party |
| 53 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Scottish National Party | 5.54% | Labour Party |
| 54 | Altrincham and Sale West | Conservative Party | 5.61% | Labour Party |
| 55 | Swindon South | Conservative Party | 5.70% | Labour Party |
| 56 | Cities of London and Westminster | Conservative Party | 5.73% | Labour Party |
| 57 | Airdrie and Shotts | Scottish National Party | 5.74% | Labour Party |
| 58 | Bolsover | Conservative Party | 5.77% | Labour Party |
| 59 | Shipley | Conservative Party | 5.78% | Labour Party |
| 60 | Crewe and Nantwich | Conservative Party | 5.79% | Labour Party |
| 61 | Rutherglen | Scottish National Party | 5.90% | Labour Party |
| 62. | Loughborough | Conservative Party | 5.90% | Labour Party |
| 63. | Midlothian | Scottish National Party | 5.92% | Labour Party |
| 64. | Rushcliffe | Conservative Party | 6.12% | Labour Party |
| 65. | Tipton and Wednesbury | Conservative Party | 6.14% | Labour Party |
| 66. | Norwich North | Conservative Party | 6.25% | Labour Party |
| 67. | Spen Valley | Conservative Party | 6.42% | Labour Party |
| 68. | Glasgow South West | Scottish National Party | 6.43% | Labour Party |
| 69. | Milton Keynes North | Conservative Party | 6.55% | Labour Party |
| 70. | Worcester | Conservative Party | 6.64% | Labour Party |
| 71. | Glasgow North | Scottish National Party | 6.72% | Labour Party |
| 72. | Rother Valley | Conservative Party | 6.74% | Labour Party |
| 73. | Southport | Conservative Party | 6.80% | Labour Party |
| 74. | Ashfield | Conservative Party | 6.81% | Reform UK |
| 75. | Shrewsbury | Conservative Party | 6.96% | Labour Party |
| 76. | East Worthing and Shoreham | Conservative Party | 7.03% | Labour Party |
| 77. | Caerfyrddin | Conservative Party | 7.04% | Plaid Cymru |
| 78. | Penistone and Stocksbridge | Conservative Party | 7.28% | Labour Party |
| 79. | Barrow and Furness | Conservative Party | 7.43% | Labour Party |
| 80. | Colne Valley | Conservative Party | 7.46% | Labour Party |
| 81. | Ceredigion Preseli | Plaid Cymru | 7.49% | Plaid Cymru |
| 82. | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Conservative Party | 7.61% | Labour Party |
| 83. | Glasgow East | Scottish National Party | 7.62% | Labour Party |
| 84. | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Conservative Party | 7.77% | Labour Party |
| 85. | Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Conservative Party | 7.84% | Labour Party |
| 86. | East Thanet | Conservative Party | 7.91% | Labour Party |
| 87. | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Conservative Party | 8.05% | Labour Party |
| 88. | Leeds South West and Morley | Conservative Party | 8.16% | Labour Party |
| 89. | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Scottish National Party | 8.18% | Labour Party |
| 90. | Bishop Auckland | Conservative Party | 8.19% | Labour Party |
| 91. | Chelsea and Fulham | Conservative Party | 8.21% | Labour Party |
| 92. | Crawley | Conservative Party | 8.38% | Labour Party |
| 93. | Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Scottish National Party | 8.42% | Labour Party |
| 94. | Harrow East | Conservative Party | 8.59% | Conservative Party |
| 95. | South Ribble | Conservative Party | 8.65% | Labour Party |
| 96. | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Conservative Party | 8.73% | Labour Party |
| 97. | Bournemouth East | Conservative Party | 8.94% | Labour Party |
| 98. | Stevenage | Conservative Party | 8.98% | Labour Party |
| 99. | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Scottish National Party | 9.11% | Labour Party |
| 100. | Glasgow South | Scottish National Party | 9.42% | Labour Party |
| 101. | Camborne and Redruth | Conservative Party | 9.55% | Labour Party |
| 102. | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Scottish National Party | 9.64% | Labour Party |
| 103. | Stoke-on-Trent North | Conservative Party | 9.65% | Labour Party |
| 104. | Gloucester | Conservative Party | 9.67% | Labour Party |
| 105. | Finchley and Golders Green | Conservative Party | 9.72% | Labour Party |
| 106. | York Outer | Conservative Party | 9.85% | Labour Party |
| 107. | Rossendale and Darwen | Conservative Party | 9.85% | Labour Party |
| 108. | Wolverhampton North East | Conservative Party | 9.92% | Labour Party |
| 109. | Macclesfield | Conservative Party | 9.94% | Labour Party |
| 110. | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Conservative Party | 10.11% | Labour Party |
| 111. | Monmouthshire | Conservative Party | 10.25% | Labour Party |
| 112. | Glasgow West | Scottish National Party | 10.29% | Labour Party |
| 113. | Scarborough and Whitby | Conservative Party | 10.33% | Labour Party |
| 114. | Dunfermline and Dollar | Scottish National Party | 10.36% | Labour Party |
| 115. | Welwyn Hatfield | Conservative Party | 10.40% | Labour Party |
| 116. | Hitchin | Conservative Party | 10.42% | Labour Party |
| 117. | West Dunbartonshire | Scottish National Party | 10.56% | Labour Party |
| 118. | Bolton West | Conservative Party | 10.65% | Labour Party |
| 119. | Scunthorpe | Conservative Party | 10.72% | Labour Party |
| 120. | Carlisle | Conservative Party | 10.82% | Labour Party |
| 121. | Erewash | Conservative Party | 10.86% | Labour Party |
| 122. | Bournemouth West | Conservative Party | 10.86% | Labour Party |
| 123. | Edinburgh North and Leith | Scottish National Party | 11.03% | Labour Party |
| 124. | Earley and Woodley | Conservative Party | 11.05% | Labour Party |
| 125. | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Scottish National Party | 11.06% | Labour Party |
| 126 | Colchester | Conservative Party | 11.14% | Labour Party |
| 127 | Stockton West | Conservative Party | 11.29% | Conservative Party |
| 128 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Scottish National Party | 11.29% | Labour Party |
| 129 | Hexham | Conservative Party | 11.29% | Labour Party |
| 130 | Ossett and Denby Dale | Conservative Party | 11.34% | Labour Party |
| 131 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Conservative Party | 11.44% | Labour Party |
| 132 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Plaid Cymru | 11.45% | Plaid Cymru |
| 133 | Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | Conservative Party | 11.70% | Labour Party |
| 134 | Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | Conservative Party | 11.71% | Labour Party |
| 135 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Conservative Party | 11.92% | Labour Party |
| 136 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Scottish National Party | 11.96% | Labour Party |
| 137 | Basingstoke | Conservative Party | 12.02% | Labour Party |
| 138 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Scottish National Party | 12.11% | Labour Party |
| 139 | Dover and Deal | Conservative Party | 12.13% | Labour Party |
| 140 | Penrith and Solway | Conservative Party | 12.31% | Labour Party |
| 141 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Scottish National Party | 12.45% | Labour Party |
| 142 | Telford | Conservative Party | 12.52% | Labour Party |
| 143 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Scottish National Party | 12.56% | Labour Party |
| 144 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Scottish National Party | 12.60% | Labour Party |
| 145 | Livingston | Scottish National Party | 12.61% | Labour Party |
| 146 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Conservative Party | 12.68% | Labour Party |
| 147 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Conservative Party | 12.75% | Labour Party |
| 148 | North East Derbyshire | Conservative Party | 13.04% | Labour Party |
| 149 | Croydon South | Conservative Party | 13.06% | Conservative Party |
| 150 | Rugby | Conservative Party | 13.10% | Labour Party |
Other seats gained and lost in by-elections that Labour is targeting :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 163 | Selby | Conservative Party | 14.06% | Labour Party |
| 211 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Conservative Party | 17.05% | Labour Party |
| – | Bristol North East | Labour Party | – | Labour Party |
| – | Hartlepool | Labour Party | – | Labour Party |
| – | Mid Bedfordshire | Conservative Party | – | Conservative Party |
| – | Rochdale | Labour Party | – | Labour Party |
| – | Tamworth | Conservative Party | – | Labour Party |

### Liberal Democrats

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Liberal Democrats :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Carshalton and Wallington | Conservative Party | 0.64% | Liberal Democrats |
| 2 | North East Fife | Scottish National Party | 0.70% | Liberal Democrats |
| 3 | Wimbledon | Conservative Party | 0.74% | Liberal Democrats |
| 4 | Sheffield Hallam | Labour Party | 0.92% | Labour Party |
| 5 | South Cambridgeshire | Conservative Party | 1.25% | Liberal Democrats |
| 6 | Cheltenham | Conservative Party | 1.25% | Liberal Democrats |
| 7 | Mid Dunbartonshire | Scottish National Party | 1.69% | Liberal Democrats |
| 8 | Cheadle | Conservative Party | 2.09% | Liberal Democrats |
| 9 | Eastbourne | Conservative Party | 2.11% | Liberal Democrats |
| 10 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Scottish National Party | 2.64% | Liberal Democrats |
| 11 | Esher and Walton | Conservative Party | 2.68% | Liberal Democrats |
| 12 | Guildford | Conservative Party | 2.96% | Liberal Democrats |
| 13 | Lewes | Conservative Party | 3.71% | Liberal Democrats |
| 14 | Hazel Grove | Conservative Party | 4.18% | Liberal Democrats |
| 15 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Conservative Party | 4.74% | Liberal Democrats |
| 16 | St Ives | Conservative Party | 4.85% | Liberal Democrats |
| 17 | Finchley and Golders Green | Conservative Party | 5.98% | Labour Party |
| 18 | Cities of London and Westminster | Conservative Party | 6.05% | Labour Party |
| 19 | Winchester | Conservative Party | 7.08% | Liberal Democrats |
| 20 | Taunton and Wellington | Conservative Party | 7.84% | Liberal Democrats |
| 21 | Harrogate and Knaresborough | Conservative Party | 7.91% | Liberal Democrats |
| 22 | Cambridge | Labour Party | 8.14% | Labour Party |
| 23 | Sutton and Cheam | Conservative Party | 8.27% | Liberal Democrats |
| 24 | Woking | Conservative Party | 8.50% | Liberal Democrats |
| 25 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | Conservative Party | 8.70% | Liberal Democrats |
| 26 | Eastleigh | Conservative Party | 8.72% | Liberal Democrats |
| 27 | Didcot and Wantage | Conservative Party | 9.22% | Liberal Democrats |
| 28 | Bermondsey and Old Southwark | Labour Party | 9.28% | Labour Party |
| 29 | Dorking and Horley | Conservative Party | 9.44% | Liberal Democrats |
| 30 | Godalming and Ash | Conservative Party | 9.63% | Conservative Party |
| 31 | West Dorset | Conservative Party | 10.71% | Liberal Democrats |
| 32 | Chelsea and Fulham | Conservative Party | 10.82% | Labour Party |
| 33 | Henley and Thame | Conservative Party | 11.05% | Liberal Democrats |
| 34 | Newbury | Conservative Party | 11.24% | Liberal Democrats |
| 35 | Wokingham | Conservative Party | 11.59% | Liberal Democrats |
| 36 | Hitchin | Conservative Party | 11.67% | Labour Party |
| 37 | Hampstead and Highgate | Labour Party | 11.68% | Labour Party |
| 38 | St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | Conservative Party | 12.24% | Liberal Democrats |
| 39 | Ely and East Cambridgeshire | Conservative Party | 12.35% | Liberal Democrats |
| 40 | South Devon | Conservative Party | 12.66% | Liberal Democrats |
| 41 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Conservative Party | 12.66% | Liberal Democrats |
| 42 | Mid Sussex | Conservative Party | 12.90% | Liberal Democrats |
| 43 | Frome and East Somerset | Conservative Party | 12.92% | Liberal Democrats |
| 44 | Thornbury and Yate | Conservative Party | 12.96% | Liberal Democrats |
| 45 | Chippenham | Conservative Party | 13.06% | Liberal Democrats |
| 46 | Farnham and Bordon | Conservative Party | 13.27% | Conservative Party |
| 47 | North Devon | Conservative Party | 13.33% | Liberal Democrats |
| 48 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Conservative Party | 13.33% | Liberal Democrats |
| 49 | Tunbridge Wells | Conservative Party | 13.40% | Liberal Democrats |
| 50 | Earley and Woodley | Conservative Party | 13.48% | Labour Party |
| 51 | Harpenden and Berkhamsted | Conservative Party | 13.52% | Liberal Democrats |
| 52 | Yeovil | Conservative Party | 13.52% | Liberal Democrats |
| 53 | Ceredigion Preseli | Plaid Cymru | 13.64% | Plaid Cymru |
| 54 | Bicester and Woodstock | Conservative Party | 13.66% | Liberal Democrats |
| 55 | Norfolk North | Conservative Party | 14.05% | Liberal Democrats |
| 56 | Chelmsford | Conservative Party | 14.32% | Liberal Democrats |
| 57 | Cornwall North | Conservative Party | 14.59% | Liberal Democrats |
| 58 | Romsey and Southampton North | Conservative Party | 14.68% | Conservative Party |
| 59 | Epsom and Ewell | Conservative Party | 14.68% | Liberal Democrats |
| 60 | Surrey Heath | Conservative Party | 14.74% | Liberal Democrats |
| 61 | Aylesbury | Conservative Party | 14.90% | Labour Party |
| 62 | Durham, City of | Conservative Party | 14.92% | Labour Party |
| 63 | Mid Dorset and North Poole | Conservative Party | 15.09% | Liberal Democrats |
| 64 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Conservative Party | 15.12% | Conservative Party |
| 65 | South Cotswolds | Conservative Party | 15.13% | Liberal Democrats |
| 66 | Melksham and Devizes | Conservative Party | 15.27% | Liberal Democrats |
| 67 | York Outer | Conservative Party | 15.48% | Labour Party |
| 68 | Horsham | Conservative Party | 15.54% | Liberal Democrats |
| 69 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Scottish National Party | 15.64% | Labour Party |
| 70 | Hornsey and Friern Barnet | Labour Party | 15.81% | Labour Party |
| 71 | Banbury | Conservative Party | 15.81% | Labour Party |
| 72 | Witney | Conservative Party | 16.05% | Liberal Democrats |
| 73 | Newton Abbot | Conservative Party | 16.65% | Liberal Democrats |
| 74 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Scottish National Party | 16.78% | Liberal Democrats |
| 75 | Maidenhead | Conservative Party | 16.79% | Liberal Democrats |
| 76 | Chesham and Amersham | Conservative Party | 16.96% | Liberal Democrats |
| 77 | Brentford and Isleworth | Labour Party | 17.00% | Labour Party |
| 78 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Scottish National Party | 17.39% | Labour Party |
| 79 | Torbay | Conservative Party | 17.41% | Liberal Democrats |
| 80 | Ealing Central and Acton | Labour Party | 17.47% | Labour Party |
| 81 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Conservative Party | 17.73% | Conservative Party |
| 82 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | Labour Party | 17.750% | Labour Party |
| 83 | Stratford-on-Avon | Conservative Party | 17.76% | Liberal Democrats |
| 88 | Tewkesbury | Conservative Party | 18.05% | Liberal Democrats |
| 103 | Chichester | Conservative Party | 19.23% | Liberal Democrats |
| 111 | Hampshire North East | Conservative Party | 19.77% | Liberal Democrats |
Other seats gained in by-elections the Liberal Democrats are targeting :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 142 | Tiverton and Minehead | Conservative Party | 20.91% | Liberal Democrats |
| 258 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Conservative Party | 24.99% | Liberal Democrats |
| – | North Shropshire | Conservative Party | – | Liberal Democrats |

### Reform UK

The target seats for Reform UK are based on results of the Brexit Party in 2019. The party didn't contest Conservative-held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in North East England and Wales.
Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Reform UK :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Barnsley North | Labour Party | 4.50% | Labour Party |
| 2 | Hartlepool | Labour Party | 5.92% | Labour Party |
| 3 | Barnsley South | Labour Party | 6.29% | Labour Party |
| 4 | Doncaster North | Labour Party | 12.82% | Labour Party |
| 5 | Easington | Labour Party | 14.31% | Labour Party |
| 6 | South Shields | Labour Party | 14.70% | Labour Party |
| 7 | Rotherham | Labour Party | 16.07% | Labour Party |
| 8 | Normanton and Hemsworth | Labour Party | 16.19% | Labour Party |
| 9 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Labour Party | 16.20% | Labour Party |
| 10 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Labour Party | 16.81% | Labour Party |
| 11 | Caerphilly | Labour Party | 16.85% | Labour Party |
| 12 | Kingston upon Hull East | Labour Party | 17.46% | Labour Party |
| 13 | Wigan | Labour Party | 18.55% | Labour Party |
| 14 | Pontypridd | Labour Party | 19.09% | Labour Party |
| 15 | Neath and Swansea East | Labour Party | 19.38% | Labour Party |
| 16 | Washington and Gateshead South | Labour Party | 19.60% | Labour Party |
| 17 | Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | Labour Party | 19.77% | Labour Party |
| 18 | Jarrow and Gateshead East | Labour Party | 19.84% | Labour Party |
| 19 | Torfaen | Labour Party | 20.12% | Labour Party |
| 20 | Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | Conservative Party | 20.31% | Labour Party |
Other seats Reform UK is targeting :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 32 | Ashfield | Conservative Party | 21.88% | Reform UK |
| – | Boston and Skegness | Conservative Party | – | Reform UK |
| – | Clacton | Conservative Party | – | Reform UK |

### Scottish National Party

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Scottish National Party :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Conservative Party | 0.79% | Conservative Party |
| 2 | Dumfries and Galloway | Conservative Party | 1.48% | Conservative Party |
| 3 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Conservative Party | 2.61% | Scottish National Party |
| 4 | Edinburgh West | Liberal Democrats | 2.62% | Liberal Democrats |
| 5 | Gordon and Buchan | Conservative Party | 3.39% | Conservative Party |
| 6 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Conservative Party | 4.26% | Conservative Party |
| 7 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Conservative Party | 4.84% | Conservative Party |
| 8 | Orkney and Shetland | Liberal Democrats | 5.41% | Liberal Democrats |
| 9 | Edinburgh South | Labour Party | 10.18% | Labour Party |
Other seats the SNP is targeting :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| – | North East Fife | Scottish National Party | – | Liberal Democrats |
| – | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Scottish National Party | – | Liberal Democrats |
| – | Rutherglen | Scottish National Party | – | Labour Party |

### Plaid Cymru

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Plaid Cymru :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Ynys Mon | Conservative Party | 3.48% | Plaid Cymru |
| 2 | Caerfyrddin | Conservative Party | 4.25% | Plaid Cymru |
| 3 | Llanelli | Labour Party | 9.53% | Labour Party |
| 4 | Caerphilly | Labour Party | 14.59% | Labour Party |
| 5 | Pontypridd | Labour Party | 17.87% | Labour Party |
| 6 | Neath and Swansea East | Labour Party | 19.70% | Labour Party |

### Green Party

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Green Party of England and Wales :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Bristol Central | Labour Party | 16.23% | Green Party of England and Wales |
| 2 | Isle of Wight West | Conservative Party | 19.30% | Labour Party |
| 6 | Frome and East Somerset | Conservative Party | 21.61% | Liberal Democrats |
| 7 | Isle of Wight East | Conservative Party | 21.70% | Conservative Party |
| 8 | Hampstead and Highgate | Labour Party | 21.99% | Labour Party |
Other seats England & Wales Greens are targeting :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | Winning party 2024 |
| 82 | Waveney Valley | | Conservative Party | 26.45% | | Green Party of England and Wales |
| – | North Herefordshire | | Conservative Party | – | | Green Party of England and Wales |
Scottish Greens target seats :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 3 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Scottish National Party | 20.26% | Labour Party |
| 5 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Scottish National Party | 21.35% | Labour Party |
| 9 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Scottish National Party | 22.24% | Labour Party |
| 10 | Livingston | Scottish National Party | 22.34% | Labour Party |
| 11 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Scottish National Party | 22.46% | Labour Party |
| 12 | Edinburgh South West | Scottish National Party | 22.60% | Labour Party |
Green Party Northern Ireland target seat :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | Winning party 2024 |
| 4 | West Tyrone | | Sinn Féin | 20.53% | | Sinn Féin |

### Northern Irish parties

Marginal seats requiring swings of under 10%:
Ulster Unionist Party :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | | Sinn Féin | 0.49% | | Sinn Féin |
| 2 | South Antrim | | Democratic Unionist Party | 3.56% | | Ulster Unionist Party |
Sinn Féin :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Upper Bann | | Democratic Unionist Party | 8.05% | | Democratic Unionist Party |
Democratic Unionist Party :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | North Down | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland | 3.09% | Independent |
| 2 | Belfast North | Sinn Féin | 3.88% | Sinn Féin |
| 3 | South Down | Sinn Féin | 9.06% | Sinn Féin |
| 4 | West Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 9.20% | Sinn Féin |
Social Democratic and Labour Party :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | South Down | | Sinn Féin | 1.80% | | Sinn Féin |
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland :
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 |
| 1 | Belfast East | Democratic Unionist Party | 2.91% | Democratic Unionist Party |
| 2 | Strangford | Democratic Unionist Party | 7.07% | Democratic Unionist Party |
| 3 | East Antrim | Democratic Unionist Party | 7.96% | Democratic Unionist Party |
| 4 | Lagan Valley | Democratic Unionist Party | 8.12% | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland |