# 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico

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The 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Clinton won the state of New Mexico with a plurality, by a margin of 8.2 percentage points. The state had long been considered leaning Democratic, or a state Clinton would win, due to its large population of Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson achieved 9% in his home state, his best performance of any state, and the Libertarian Party's best performance in any single state since Ed Clark received 11.66% of the vote in Alaska in 1980. Johnson's result was also the best result for a third party or independent candidate in New Mexico since Ross Perot's campaign in 1992.
This is the third time since 1912, when New Mexico attained statehood, that the state voted for a candidate who did not win the Electoral College, the other instances being 1976 and 2000. However, in this election and in 2000, the state did vote for the winner of the popular vote. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Los Alamos County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, as well as the first to do so without carrying Sandoval County since Richard Nixon in 1968.

## Primary elections
### Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primary ballot:
* Bernie Sanders
* Hillary Clinton
* Rocky De La Fuente
* Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)
New Mexico Democratic primary, June 7, 2016 :
| Candidate | Popular vote | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | Estimated delegates | Estimated delegates |
| Candidate | Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total |
| Hillary Clinton | 111,334 | 51.53% | 18 | 9 | 27 |
| Bernie Sanders | 104,741 | 48.47% | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Uncommitted | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 216,075 | 100% | 34 | 9 | 43 |
| Source: ||||||

### Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
* Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
* Ben Carson (withdrawn)
* Chris Christie (withdrawn)
* Ted Cruz (withdrawn)
* Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)
* Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)
* Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)
* John Kasich (withdrawn)
* Rand Paul (withdrawn)
* Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
* Rick Santorum (withdrawn)
* Donald Trump
Donald Trump, the only candidate with an active campaign, won every delegate from New Mexico.
New Mexico Republican primary, June 7, 2016 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 73,908 | 70.64% | 24 | 0 | 24 |
| Ted Cruz (withdrawn) | 13,925 | 13.31% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich (withdrawn) | 7,925 | 7.57% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 3,830 | 3.66% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 3,531 | 3.37% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 1,508 | 1.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | Unprojected delegates: | Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 104,627 | 100.00% | 24 | 0 | 24 |
| Source: The Green Papers ||||||

## General election
### Polling

Albuquerque Journal October 2, 2016
* Clinton 35%
* Trump 31%
* Johnson 24%
* Stein 2%
Albuquerque Journal November 5, 2016
* Clinton 45%
* Trump 40%
* Johnson 11%
* Stein 3%
Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. Her margin of victory varied from 2 points to 13 points. The last poll showed Clinton ahead of Trump 46% to 44%, while the RealClearPolitics average of the last three had Clinton leading Trump 45.3% to 40.3% on the day of the election, with Gary Johnson at 9.3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2.3%. Johnson's highest level of support was 25% in a Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll in early September.

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Los Angeles Times | Safe D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN | Safe D | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report | Likely D | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |

### Results

2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Hillary ClintonTim Kaine | 385,234 | 48.26% | −4.73 |
| | Republican | Donald TrumpMike Pence | 319,667 | 40.04% | −2.80 |
| | Libertarian | Gary JohnsonBill Weld | 74,541 | 9.34% | +5.79 |
| | Green | Jill SteinAjamu Baraka | 9,879 | 1.24% | +0.90 |
| | Better for America | Evan McMullinNathan Johnson | 5,825 | 0.73% | N/A |
| | Constitution | Darrell CastleScott Bradley | 1,514 | 0.19% | +0.06 |
| | Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La RivaDennis Banks | 1,184 | 0.15% | N/A |
| | American Delta | Rocky De La FuenteMichael Steinberg | 475 | 0.06% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 798,319 | 100.00% | |
| | Democratic win | Democratic win | Democratic win | Democratic win | Democratic win |

#### By county

| County | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Gary Johnson Libertarian | Gary Johnson Libertarian | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total votes cast |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total votes cast |
| Bernalillo | 143,417 | 52.22% | 94,698 | 34.48% | 29,682 | 10.81% | 6,865 | 2.50% | 48,719 | 17.74% | 274,662 |
| Catron | 427 | 20.84% | 1,464 | 71.45% | 111 | 5.42% | 47 | 2.29% | -1,037 | -50.61% | 2,049 |
| Chaves | 5,534 | 27.30% | 12,872 | 63.50% | 1,609 | 7.94% | 256 | 1.26% | -7,338 | -36.20% | 20,271 |
| Cibola | 3,741 | 46.40% | 3,195 | 39.63% | 970 | 12.03% | 157 | 1.95% | 546 | 6.77% | 8,063 |
| Colfax | 2,129 | 39.93% | 2,585 | 48.48% | 527 | 9.88% | 91 | 1.71% | -456 | -8.55% | 5,332 |
| Curry | 3,121 | 23.34% | 9,035 | 67.58% | 973 | 7.28% | 241 | 1.80% | -5,914 | -44.24% | 13,370 |
| De Baca | 193 | 21.21% | 620 | 68.13% | 89 | 9.78% | 8 | 0.88% | -427 | -46.92% | 910 |
| Doña Ana | 37,947 | 53.71% | 25,374 | 35.92% | 5,471 | 7.74% | 1,856 | 2.63% | 12,573 | 17.79% | 70,648 |
| Eddy | 5,033 | 25.59% | 13,147 | 66.85% | 1,275 | 6.48% | 212 | 1.08% | -8,114 | -41.26% | 19,667 |
| Grant | 6,276 | 48.99% | 5,288 | 41.28% | 899 | 7.02% | 348 | 2.72% | 988 | 7.71% | 12,811 |
| Guadalupe | 970 | 53.09% | 595 | 32.57% | 238 | 13.03% | 24 | 1.31% | 375 | 20.52% | 1,827 |
| Harding | 156 | 29.60% | 311 | 59.01% | 55 | 10.44% | 5 | 0.95% | -155 | -29.41% | 527 |
| Hidalgo | 784 | 41.88% | 910 | 48.61% | 137 | 7.32% | 41 | 2.19% | -126 | -6.73% | 1,872 |
| Lea | 3,930 | 22.19% | 12,495 | 70.55% | 1,098 | 6.20% | 189 | 1.07% | -8,565 | -48.36% | 17,712 |
| Lincoln | 2,331 | 26.19% | 5,896 | 66.23% | 560 | 6.29% | 115 | 1.29% | -3,565 | -40.04% | 8,902 |
| Los Alamos | 5,562 | 51.10% | 3,359 | 30.86% | 1,512 | 13.89% | 452 | 4.15% | 2,203 | 20.24% | 10,885 |
| Luna | 3,195 | 43.80% | 3,478 | 47.68% | 481 | 6.59% | 141 | 1.93% | -283 | -3.88% | 7,295 |
| McKinley | 13,576 | 62.55% | 5,104 | 23.52% | 2,412 | 11.11% | 611 | 2.82% | 8,472 | 39.03% | 21,703 |
| Mora | 1,536 | 62.93% | 665 | 27.24% | 194 | 7.95% | 46 | 1.88% | 871 | 35.69% | 2,441 |
| Otero | 6,124 | 30.53% | 11,887 | 59.26% | 1,613 | 8.04% | 436 | 2.17% | -5,763 | -28.73% | 20,060 |
| Quay | 1,017 | 28.47% | 2,212 | 61.93% | 299 | 8.37% | 44 | 1.23% | -1,195 | -33.46% | 3,572 |
| Rio Arriba | 9,592 | 64.47% | 3,599 | 24.19% | 1,425 | 9.58% | 262 | 1.76% | 5,993 | 40.28% | 14,878 |
| Roosevelt | 1,454 | 24.44% | 3,884 | 65.28% | 482 | 8.10% | 130 | 2.18% | -2,430 | -40.84% | 5,950 |
| San Juan | 12,865 | 27.90% | 27,946 | 60.61% | 4,200 | 9.11% | 1099 | 2.38% | -15,081 | -32.71% | 46,110 |
| San Miguel | 7,285 | 67.76% | 2,313 | 21.51% | 915 | 8.61% | 238 | 2.21% | 4,972 | 46.25% | 10,751 |
| Sandoval | 27,707 | 44.91% | 25,905 | 41.99% | 6,657 | 10.79% | 1,421 | 2.30% | 1,802 | 2.92% | 61,690 |
| Santa Fe | 50,793 | 71.10% | 14,332 | 20.06% | 4,362 | 6.11% | 1,947 | 2.73% | 36,461 | 51.04% | 71,434 |
| Sierra | 1,612 | 31.11% | 3,010 | 58.10% | 442 | 8.53% | 117 | 2.26% | -1,398 | -26.99% | 5,181 |
| Socorro | 3,313 | 48.24% | 2,616 | 38.09% | 802 | 11.68% | 137 | 1.99% | 697 | 10.15% | 6,868 |
| Taos | 10,668 | 69.91% | 2,727 | 17.87% | 1,179 | 7.73% | 686 | 4.50% | 7,941 | 52.04% | 15,260 |
| Torrance | 1,785 | 28.23% | 3,714 | 58.73% | 692 | 10.94% | 133 | 2.10% | -1,929 | -30.50% | 6,324 |
| Union | 320 | 18.80% | 1,216 | 71.45% | 134 | 7.87% | 32 | 1.88% | -896 | -52.65% | 1,702 |
| Valencia | 10,841 | 39.29% | 13,215 | 47.89% | 3,046 | 11.04% | 490 | 1.78% | -2,374 | -8.60% | 27,592 |
| Total | 385,234 | 48.26% | 319,667 | 40.04% | 74,541 | 9.34% | 18,877 | 2.36% | 65,567 | 8.22% | 798,319 |
* Democratic — +>15%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
* Democratic — +>15%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
* Democratic  Hold Republican  Hold  Gain from Democratic

##### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Colfax (largest city: Raton)
* Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
* Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)

#### By congressional district

Clinton won 2 of 3 congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
| 1st | 35% | 52% | Michelle Lujan Grisham |
| 2nd | 50% | 40% | Steve Pearce |
| 3rd | 37% | 52% | Ben Ray Luján |